This was another pot in which I was involved. Again I was the big blind in an un-raised pot with A♦-J♦-J♣-2♣. The flop was 3♠-2♠-2♥.
The small blind, who was a loose and weak player, bet the pot and I raised.
Tommy, who was a good player, flat called my raise. The small blind also called my raise! Now I knew that Tommy had flopped full house of Threes over Twos and I was, therefore, ready to muck my cards. Then the dealer turned the J♥ to give me a better full house. Both the small blind, who had 6♥-5♥-4♠-2♦, and I checked, Tommy bet, the small blind
90 T HE S CIENCE OF P OKER
called and I raised. To my surprise they both called my full pot bet when the river card was the 5♦.Tommy got very greedy on the flop. He gave me a free card and started spending the money he had not earned yet instead of re-raising me. He should have known that he would not get more money from me unless I outdrew him with an overpair. On the other hand, Tommy was guaranteed to get the small blind’s money because he was the type of player who would not release flopped trips. I was about 20:1 against on the flop and I got more than twenty times my investment in the flop.
Now let us go back to the subject of after flop play. The correct way of playing your hand after the flop will be dictated by your position, the skill level of your opponents, as well as the relevance of the flop to your cards and the size of your chipstack. Generally speaking, you will have one of the following possibilities after the flop:
(1) Draw - The flop may present you with a draw to the flush or the straight.
(2) Made Hand - You may have two pairs, trips, flush, straight...etc. On several occasions your made hand will be supported by a flush or a straight draw.
(3) Nothing.
Let us look at the first two possibilities in more detail.
2.1 Draw
I will classify drawing hands into three groups. The groups are categorised according to the number of outs needed to end up with the best hand.
Thus the first group has 7 to 9 cards working in its favour, the second enjoys the support of 10 to 14 outs and the holder of the last group is in the happy position of having 15 or more cards willing to win the pot for him/her.
P OT - L IMIT O MAHA
2.1.1 Seven to nine outs
Your hand belongs to this group, when you flop a flush or a straight draw against trips or two pairs. Flopped trips against a made flush or straight also fall into this category. Under these circumstances your position, the size of your chipstack as well as that of your opponents and the number of players contesting the pot must play a major role in your decision to gamble after the flop.
Let us first consider the situation when the flop is offering you a draw to the flush/straight. You must avoid head-to-head contests with the latter draws, especially from early position because, on a card by card basis, your fortunes range from 11:2 to about 4:1 against. Furthermore, it is highly unlikely that your opponent will call your bet when you complete your, say, flush draw on the turn. On the other hand, if you miss your draw on the turn, your opponent will put you on the flush draw and can consequently bluff you out of the pot with almost anything. The only way your gamble produces positive returns is if you are sure that, when you capture the correct turn card, your bets on the turn and the river will be called by the flop bettor. Bearing in mind that you may lose the pot on the river if your opponent outdraws you, your mathematical expectations are pathetic if your bet on the river is not called when your rival misses his/her draw. All of this assumes that you and your opponent have more than 6 times the flop bet. If neither of you has that much, you are playing in the losing zone of the implied odds.
In a 3-handed pot you may decide to go all-in if you have one full pot bet or less. Now you will be getting just over 2 to 1 for your money on a 5:2 or 2:1 against gamble. As you can see, even under these conditions your adventure is practically a break-even one. That is why I think calling with
“Hold’em” hands is bad for your bank balance. You should steer away from marginal investments. Save your money for the more profitable draws.
Next, let us look at the more alluring situations when you flop trips against a made straight/flush. Against a made flush, you must release your cards because, if the board is paired, only a very bad opponent will pay you. The fortunes of trips against a flopped straight are, to my mind, worse. The following example should clarify the reasons for avoiding gambles against flopped straights.
92 T HE S CIENCE OF P OKER