Split pair

As I said earlier, the win-rate of your top pair will depend on the composition of the flop. Let us look at some examples. Assume you raised with A♣-K♠ and the dealer turned one of the following flops:

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(1) Α♦-7♣-3♥

(2) Α♦-9♣-8♥

(3) A♦-Τ♥-2♥

(4) Κ♣-Q♦-J♥

(5) Α♠-Τ♠-9♠

Each flop gives you top pair, but your win-rate at the end of the deal will vary significantly with the flop and the number of players contesting the pot. Let us consider the above flops one by one.

(1) You have A♣♣♣♣♣-Κ♠Κ♠Κ♠Κ♠Κ♠ Flop A♦♦♦♦♦-7♣7♣7♣7♣7♣-3♥3♥3♥3♥3♥

Τhis is the best flop you can hope for. You have the top pair with the top kicker. There is no flush draw and it is unlikely that you will lose to a straight. Your bet on the flop will be called by an opponent who has either an Ace-high hand with a lower kicker or the second-best pair. If the caller has the top pair but the rank of his kicker is lower than yours, then you will win the pot about 88% of the time, because only three cards in the remaining deck will work against you. Against an opponent holding the second-best pair, your win-rate will be about 80%; in this case the caller must get lucky and hit one of his or her five outs. Therefore, you don’t want to see another Seven on the turn. If you get action from more than one opponent, then you should be more cautious. If your bet on the turn of the fourth board card is raised, then you are probably looking at either two pairs or trips; what else can your opponent be raising with? Against two pairs your win-rate on the turn of the river card will be about 13% (about 13:2 against) and against trips you might as well whistle in the wind. Your best course of action is to give your opponent the benefit of the doubt. Discard your cards. The raise on the more expensive round of betting is the clue in these situations.

(((((2) You have A♣♣♣♣♣-Κ♠Κ♠Κ♠Κ♠Κ♠ Flop A♦♦♦♦♦-9♣9♣9♣9♣9♣-8♥8♥8♥8♥8♥

This flop offers your rivals a draw to the straight. Subsequently, your bet on the flop may be called by more than one opponent.

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Assuming that your opponents called your raise with cards such as suited Q-J, J-T, 9-8, 8-7 and 7-6, the danger cards on the turn and the river are Q, T, 7, 5, 9 and 8. The first four may complete the straight draw and the last two may give one of your opponents trips or full house. In a head-to-head contest against a straight draw, the overall win-rate of the top pair is 64%. Since many players will call a raise with 9-8, one of your opponents may have flopped two pairs, in which case your overall win-rate collapses to 25%. (You have only five outs plus the possibility of turning a running pair on the fourth and fifth board cards.)

Again, if the dealer turns a blank card on the fourth street and your bet is raised, you may be looking at two pairs or trips.

Some players may raise your bet on the flop if they have top pair with a lower kicker or an eight-card draw to the straight.

They are basically aiming to get a free card on the more expensive round of betting. It is unlikely that an opponent who has flopped trips or two pairs will raise your bet on the cheap round of betting, although some may do just that in order to confuse you; raising with flopped trips in these situations is not wrong because many players are reluctant to release a flopped top pair. Again, this is an example of how important your understanding of that opponent’s playing style is. In general you should re-raise without any hesitation. If you get raised again, then in all probability your question has been answered and a graceful retreat may be the appropriate course of action.

(((((3) You have A♣♣♣♣♣-Κ♠Κ♠Κ♠Κ♠Κ♠ Flop A♦♦♦♦♦-Τ♥Τ♥Τ♥Τ♥Τ♥-2♥2♥2♥2♥2♥

Your top pair may be competing against a flush draw, second-best pair, as well as top pair with a flush draw. As you should know by now, the flush draw will be completed 20% of the time (4:1 against) on either the turn or the river. The overall probability of hitting the flush is 35%. Therefore, your overall win-rate in a head-to-head contest against a flush draw is about 65%; the flush draw is 9:5 against. If your opponent

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calls your raise with, say, A♥-J♥, your win-rate will be reduced to about 54% because there are 12 cards in the remaining deck that are working for your rival; your opponent’s overall win-rate is 12 × 3.8 = 45.6% (about 11:9 against) and about 25% (2.2 × 12) on either the turn or the river. In this case it is quite correct for your opponent to put you under pressure by raising your bet on the flop. Therefore, the danger cards that you don’t want to see are any heart, the Ten and possibly any Three or Five. The latter two cards will complete the straight for players who have called your raise with suited 4-5(s) or 3-4(s). Again, one of your opponents may have had a brainstorm and called your raise with A-T.

(4) You have A♣♣♣-Κ♠♣♣Κ♠Κ♠Κ♠ Flop K♣Κ♠ ♣♣♣♣-Q♦♦♦♦♦-J♥♥♥♥♥

This is one of the worst flops for your top pair. Many players will play raised pots with K-Q, K-J, Q-J, K-T, Q-T and J-T.

You don’t want to see the Ace on the turn because it may complete the straight for one of your opponents. The best fourth board card you can hope for is the Ten. The second-best alternative is a small running pair on the turn and the river. You should bet on the flop in order to find out where you stand, but don’t be ashamed to discard your top pair if an opponent raises your bet. The raise can’t come from a player holding K-9, although a player holding K-T may try to put you under pressure.

(5) You have A♣♣♣♣♣-Κ♠Κ♠Κ♠Κ♠Κ♠ Flop A♠♠♠♠-Τ♠♠Τ♠Τ♠Τ♠Τ♠-9♠9♠9♠9♠9♠

This is a good flop for you. You have top pair with the nut flush draw. In a head-to-head contest your top pair may be the winning hand. Even if your opponent has flopped two pairs, your chances of winning by the end of the deal are good. For example, if the other player holds T-9, you still have 14 outs to beat him with, giving you an overall win-rate of just over 50% (14 × 3.8 = 53.2%). If more than two players call your bet after the flop, it is likely that one of them has flopped trips, two pairs, or the flush. Against trips or an already

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made flush you have seven outs, which presents you with an overall win-rate of 28% (5:2 against).