Internal niche developments versus external niche developments

In chapter 2 I have identified a number of possible variables that could influence the global niche expectations which could be divided into internal niche developments, in the form of outcomes of local test projects, and external niche developments, in the form of developments in competing and complementing technologies, and developments in regimes. After introducing the field and the actors in the field, I have worked out these three variables in chapter 6.

7.1.1 Outcomes of local test projects

The outcomes of the local test projects both negatively and positively affected the global niche expectations. The most important positive outcome was with the Whispergen 1 test in which the energy companies were convinced that the boiler could become a success. Because of the positive interpretation of the outcomes, multiple strong actors now shared the niche expectations thus increasing the strength of these expectations, making them more robust. Other positive project outcomes included the technical workings of the Stirling engines, strengthening the expectation that the Stirling micro-CHP boiler was able to make sufficient savings in order for it to be economically competitive with the condensing gas boiler.

Outcomes of the test also had a negative impact on the global niche expectations. In chapter 5 I have identified two global niche expectations that were negatively influenced by the local project

outcomes. These first was the expectation that the Stirling micro-CHP boiler is the direct successor of the condensing gas boiler in existing buildings. The second was the expectations that the Stirling micro-CHP boiler is able to compete on price with the condensing gas boiler. Local test outcomes showed that these expectations were not as simple as some proponents of the new technology would communicate them to be. Various tests showed problems with the noise, weight, reliability, usability, and the payback time, which all had an impact on the belief of actors in these general global niche expectations. The tests showed for example that the boiler would only save enough money when installed in houses of household that consume above 1.600 m3 _{natural gas and only} when the user makes correct use of the thermostat. The noise would be problematic in houses in which the vibrations of the boiler would result in an awkward frequency resulting in a loud noise. The weight was a problem since a Stirling micro-CHP boiler weighs 150-plus kilo and could therefore not be transported over small, light staircases. Because of these problems, the expectations became

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more specific. Instead of expecting that the Stirling micro-CHP boiler is a 1-on-1 replacement technology for the condensing gas boiler and that it would be economically competitive with the condensing gas boiler, it became apparent that for both expectations, the boiler would only work in specific situations.

A number of problems were specific for the Dutch setting. For example, noise, weight, and size were problematic due to the location of the boiler on the top floor of the houses close to the sleeping rooms while the payback time was problematic due to the low price of the condensing gas boiler in the Netherlands. These problems contributed to the formation of a new global niche expectation that Germany is a more interesting market for Stirling micro-CHP boiler than the Dutch market. 7.1.2 Developments in competing and complementing technologies

The development of competing technologies like the hybrid heat pump and the price-developments in the solar-PV field contributed to the change of the expectations that the Stirling micro-CHP boiler is the direct replacement technology of the condensing gas boiler. This expectation changed into the expectation that the Stirling micro-CHP boiler is only one of the possible successors of the

condensing gas boiler. All interviewees see fuel cell technology as an interesting technology for the future although not the near future. However, one of the most important actors in the Dutch Stirling micro-CHP field, Eneco, mentions that the positive developments in the fuel cell field in combination with the problems occurring in the Stirling micro-CHP field shifted their attention away from the Stirling micro-CHP boiler technology.

Developments in complementing technologies did not have an impact on the global niche

expectations. However, developments in complementing technologies, like a new thermostat and a smart power meter, contributed to the continuation of the global niche expectations about the future success of the technology.

7.1.3 Developments in regimes

Decisions and activities of actors in the energy regime had an impact on the expectations about the future success of the Stirling micro-CHP boiler, when for example the three large energy companies started to support the technology this send a strong signal about their belief in this technology. Initial promises of the technology about the economic competitiveness and about the ability to replace the condensing gas boiler were taken up in the agenda of these companies and a strong network was created around the technology. When on the other hand British Gas decided to sell Microgen, the leading Stirling-engine manufacturer, this sends a negative signal to the other parties in the niche and as a result, negative voices appeared. Actors in the field whose expectations were negatively influenced by the departure of British Gas out of the niche, pointed to the problems in the local project outcomes to vent their criticism. When large boiler manufacturers together bought Microgen this sends another signal to the field but this time a positive one. It showed that the major boiler manufacturers believed in the technology and the positive expectations returned. When Remeha announced its price at the end of 2010 the expectations took another negative turn since this price at 10.500 euro was much higher than was expected and the expectation that the Stirling micro-CHP boiler would be able to compete on price with the condensing gas boiler could not be taken seriously anymore. When at the beginning of 2011 the government announced to stop the subsidy of 4.000 euro for the Stirling micro-CHP boiler, this was the final nail in the coffin for the expectation about the economic competitiveness of the Stirling micro-CHP boiler. As this expectation was used to

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promote the technology, this had a devastating effect on the expectations in the niche for the success of the technology in the Netherlands. Instead, the global niche expectation that the German market is a more interesting market for Stirling micro-CHP boiler than the Dutch market now is widely believed in the niche.

7.2 Conclusion

Interpretations of the local test projects are only partially able to explain the change in direction and content of the global niche expectations. Although the interpretations of the outcomes of the local test projects clearly had an impact on the global niche expectations, external niche developments have also heavily contributed to the changing and shaping of global niche expectations. The interaction between the internal and external niche developments appears to be very important in the development of the niche expectations and to exclude the external niche developments in the analysis of niche expectations would be to miss an important piece of the puzzle.

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Chapter 8 – Discussion and reflection

In this chapter I will discuss the most interesting findings of my research project. I will see whether the results presented in chapter 6 match with findings in earlier researches and I will discuss any interesting differences and similarities. In the final part of this chapter I will reflect on my research, I will discuss any shortcomings in my study and how they can be improved in future studies.