Part 1 Engineering in Context
6.1 Our untapped potential
Our new extension analysis to Working Futures 2012-2022 shows that the UK needs to recruit 1.82 million workers with engineering skills over the period 2012-2022.385 The data in this
section will show that in Q1 2014, there were still 728,000 18- to 24-year-old NEETs, a visible untapped pool that Government, business and industry, professional engineering institutions and third sector organisations need to be cognisant of.
Progress on reducing the numbers of NEETs is being made. Figures published by the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills (BIS) and the Department for Education (DfE), show that for England in the first quarter of 2014 (January to March) compared with the same period in 2013:386
• there are 774,000 16- to 24-year-olds who are NEET (13.1%) – this is down 135,000 (2 percentage points) on last year, and is the lowest rate for this quarter since 2005
• there are 122,000 16- to 18-year-olds NEET (6.7%) – this is down 29,000 (1.5 percentage points) on last year, and is the lowest since comparable data began in 2001
• there are 652,000 19- to 24-year-olds NEET – this is down 105,000 (2.3 percentage points) on last year, and is the lowest since 2008
• the figures also show that 94.2% of 16- and 17-year-olds are participating in education and training, the highest comparable participation rate since consistent records began in 2001
Part 1 – Engineering in Context
6.0 Mining the talent pool – capacity and equity
As ‘birth not worth’ has become more a determinant of life
chances, higher social mobility – reducing the extent to which a
person’s class or income is dependent on the class or income of
387Statistical First Release, NEET Quarterly Brief – January to March 2014, Reference SFR 13/2014, 22 May 2014 https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/312742/ Quarterly_Brief_NEET_Q1_2014_Final.pdf 388No More NEETs, A Plan For All Young People To Be Learning Or Earning, Graeme Cooke, Institute for Public Policy Research, November 2013 389Growing up and becoming an adult, Institute for Public Policy Research, November 2013, p5 390The geography of youth unemployment: a route map for change, The Work Foundation, April 2014, p5 391 Uses travel to work areas
Alongside this news we are able to examine the same groups of people but over a longer period – Q1 2009 to Q1 2014 – and broken down by age and percentage of cohort (Table 6.0).387
The data highlights two key points:
1. The drastic reduction in 16- to 17-year-old NEETs from 109,000 (8.4%) in Q1 2009 to 46,000 (3.8%) in Q1 2014 reflects the effects of raising the school leaving age to 17 in 2013. It endorses the view388 that, following
the rise to 18 in 2015, the issue of NEETs for policy makers will be 18- to 24-year-olds. 2. Whilst numbers of 18- to 24-year-olds NEETs
have fallen from 815,000 (17.4%) in Q1 2009 to 728,000 (15.4%) in Q1, having almost 1 in 6 in this age group still NEET is not acceptable collectively and, for individuals, a travesty.
Before moving on, it should be noted that the IPPR pointed out in its report, Growing up and becoming an adult, that with few entry-level jobs for school-leavers, most young people are now staying in education until they are 18. However, they highlight that many are not engaged in worthwhile learning. Previously, young people who left school without good qualifications would have gone straight into work, usually with formal training and structured progression routes. With this route now almost entirely cut off, many young people are working towards low- value vocational qualifications that fail to prepare them for work or further study.389
Worryingly, IPPR predicts that one in five teenagers who gain low-level qualifications can expect to be neither working nor in further studies by the time they are 20.
6.1.1 The geography of youth unemployment
We are increasingly familiar and even desensitised to these UK NEETs figures. However, a recent report by the Work Foundation looked beneath these numbers at the geography of youth unemployment and found large differences in youth unemployment levels within the UK390 that reflect a familiar pattern of labour
market disadvantage. In most cases, the places with the highest youth unemployment rates are those that have experienced economic distress for some time and have failed to adjust to the changing geography of the UK’s economy (Figure 6.0).391 They also make the point that in some
places youth unemployment is so high that young people may need to be supported to look for opportunities elsewhere.
Table 6.0: Not in Employment, Education, or Training (2009–2014) – England
NEET LFS Series 16-year-olds 17-year-olds 18-year-olds 17-year- olds16- to 18-year- olds16- to 24-year- olds16- to 24-year- olds18- to 24-year- olds19- to
Q1 2009 Number 43,000 66,000 110,000 109,000 219,000 924,000 815,000 705,000 Percentage of cohort 6.6% 10.0% 16.8% 8.4% 11.2% 15.5% 17.4% 17.5% Q1 2010 Number 32,000 58,000 106,000 90,000 196,000 921,000 831,000 725,000 Percentage of cohort 5.1% 8.6% 16.9% 7.0% 10.2% 15.3% 17.6% 17.7% Q1 2011 Number 34,000 49,000 79,000 83,000 161,000 927,000 844,000 766,000 Percentage of cohort 5.2% 7.9% 12.2% 6.5% 8.4% 15.4% 17.7% 18.6% Q1 2012 Number 38,000 57,000 85,000 95,000 180,000 960,000 865,000 780,000 Percentage of cohort 6.2% 9.0% 13.7% 7.6% 9.7% 15.9% 18.1% 18.8% Q1 2013 Number 26,000 40,000 86,000 65,000 152,000 909,000 843,000 757,000 Percentage of cohort 4.6% 6.0% 13.8% 5.4% 8.2% 15.1% 17.6% 18.2% Q1 2014 Number 20,000 27,000 76,000 46,000 122,000 774,000 728,000 652,000 Percentage of cohort 3.2% 4.6% 12.5% 3.8% 6.7% 13.1% 15.4% 15.9%
Source: Labour Force Survey Q1 related to the months January – March
Aberdeen Edinburgh Newcastle Durham Blackpool Liverpool Wirral York Wakefield Bradford Rochdale Blackburn Preston Derby Leicester Coventry Birmingham Northampton Portsmouth Bournemouth Swindon Oxford Guildford Southampton Brighton Worthing Milton Keynes Luton Reading Nottingham Bolton Huddersfield Manchester Warrington and Wigan Sheffield Cardiff Bristol Barnsley Hull Doncaster Peterborough Stoke-on-Trent Middlesbrough Ipswich Grimsby Glasgow Plymouth Swansea Cambridge Southend London Maidstone Leeds Low < 11% Below average 11-14% Average 14-17% Above average 17-20% High > 20%%
6.1.2 London bucking the trend
The Department for Education statistics show an unprecedented and surprisingly high level of university entry among pupils on Free School Meals in inner London for pupils who finished school in 2011.392
The figures show that 63% of poor pupils in London schools and colleges progressed into Higher Education. Among pupils taking A levels, 53% on average went into Higher Education. These figures challenge the idea that pupils from poorer backgrounds will perform less well at school than their wealthier counterparts. The statistics show that the proportion of poorer pupils in inner London going into Higher Education (63%) is higher than better off pupils in the North East (54%), North West (57%), East Midlands (51%), West Midlands (53%), East of England (51%), South East (49%) and South West (47%). Furthermore, in all these regions the figures for poorer pupils – as defined by eligibility for Free School Meals – are even lower. In the South East of England, 34% of poorer pupils continue to Higher Education, little more than half the figure for inner London. Fig. 6.0: NEET rates (2012/13) – UK
Source: The Work Foundation
6.1.3 What about everyone else? Worldwide, young people are three times more likely than their parents to be out of work.393
In Greece, Spain, and South Africa, more than half of young people are unemployed, and jobless levels of 25% or more are common in Europe, the Middle East, and Northern Africa. In the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, more than one in eight of all 15- to 24-year-olds are NEET.394
Around the world, the International Labour Organization estimates that 75 million (13.1%) of young people are unemployed – up from 11.6% in 2007. Including estimates of underemployed youth would potentially triple this number.395 This represents not just a
gigantic pool of untapped talent. It is also a source of social unrest and individual despair.396 Within the European Union (EU) the situation is no better:
• Current youth unemployment levels in the EU are exceptionally high. According to Eurostat, the EU’s statistical service, the seasonally adjusted rate of youth unemployment across the 28 EU Member States (EU28) stood at 22.9% in February 2014, more than double the overall unemployment rate of 10.6%.397 In
comparison, the EU 28 youth unemployment rate in 2007 was 12.1%.398
• There were 5.5 million unemployed young people (15- to 24-year-olds) looking for, but unable to find, work in the EU in the first quarter of 2013. Even more worryingly, there were more than 7.5 million young people classed as NEET – over 13% of the youth population.399
• Between 2007 and 2011/12, the share of young people aged 15–29 classed as NEET has risen in 30 out of the 40 countries for which figures are available (Figure 6.1). In Ireland and Spain, the NEET rate has risen by more than 9.4 and 8.7 percentage points respectively since 2007.400
Finally, it should be noted that, with the exception of Austria, Germany and Luxembourg, all Member States have seen an increase in the number of NEETs since the peak of the economic crisis in 2008.401
Fig. 6.1: Young people that are NEET as the share of the population aged 15–29 (2007 and most recent year) Canada Australia United Kingdom United States Poland 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 45.0% Greece Ireland Turkey Macedonia, FYR South Korea Croatia Hungary Cyprus Latvia New Zealand Lithuania Belgium Netherlands Finland Spain Switzerland Sweden Norway Iceland Luxembourg Czech Republic Malta Israel Mexico Bulgaria France Portugal Estonia Germany Denmark Slovenia Austria Italy Brazil Romania 2007
Most recent year
393Global Employment Trends 2014, Risk of a jobless recovery?, International Labour Organisation, January 2014 394 “NEET rates among youth in OECD countries: Percentage of population aged 15–24, 2007 Q1–2011 Q1,” OECD Employment Outlook 2012, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), 2012. 395 Jenny Marlar, “Global unemployment at 8% in 2011,” Gallup, April 2012. 396The geography of youth unemployment: a route map for change, The Work Foundation, April 2014, p11 397
Eurostat news release, 1 April 2014, available at:http://epp. eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_PUBLIC/3-01042014-AP/EN/3- 01042014-AP-EN.PDF 398 Eurostat, ‘Youth unemployment rate’, available at:http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/ eurostat/home/ 399European Jobs and Skills a Comprehensive Review 2014, Institute of Public Policy Research, April 2014, p128 400Global Employment Trends 2014, Risk of a jobless recovery?, International Labour Organisation, January 2014 401 Ibid
402Engineering UK 2014 The state of engineering, EngineeringUK, December 2013, p42 403 Statistical First Release, SFR 05/2014, Department for Education, 23 January 2014 404 Revised data 405GCSE and Equivalent Attainment by Pupil Characteristics in England 2012/13, Department for Education, 23 January 2014, p7