Population size

Table 4.0 shows that population variations are due to have a significant effect on the numbers of young people at each of the key points in education. The number of 18-year-olds is set to drop from 802,033 in 2012 to 755,736 in 2017 and 730,822 in 2022, an 8.9% fall in just 10 years (although this will recover to 809,416 by 2027). This means that the number of young people available to progress into higher or vocational education will be limited. The number of 14-year-olds is set for a similar drop, from 748,443 in 2012 to 694,005 in 2017 (-7.3%) before jumping dramatically to 804,279 in 2022 – an increase of 15.9% in just five years.

Table 4.1 also reveals that the number of 21-year-olds is set to vary significantly, dropping from 875,604 in 2012 to 817,671 in 2017 and 749,481 in 2022. This is a drop of 14.4% in 10 years. It also shows that in the same period, 8,983,084 will turn 21 in the UK. However, in Section 15.3 we show that over the same 10 year period there will be 14.4 million job openings. This therefore raises some key questions about whether there will be enough people entering the jobs market to fill the job openings that will appear.

Part 1 – Engineering in Context

4.0 Population changes

There will be some significant population challenges in the UK

going forward which will affect the pool of GCSE level pupils and

the pool available for progressing into the Higher Education. The

number of 14-year-olds is set to fluctuate significantly, falling by

7.3% between 2012 and 2017 before jumping by 15.9% five years

later. There will also be a drop in the number of 18-year-olds, which

will decrease by 8.9% between 2012 and 2022. To further

compound the population issue, if we assume that currently people

start work at 18 and stay in employment until 65 then the average

number of years of employment the average person in the UK has

is 24 years. This points to the fact that, over the next 24 years,

half of the current working population will retire.

261 The Office for National Statistics produces population forecasts through to 2112. However beyond 2037 the reliability of the forecasts becomes less certain

Table 4.0: Population projections by ages 14, 16, 18, 21 (2012-2037)261 _{– UK}

Years Overall Age 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 14 748,443 694,005 804,279 811,925 826,027 814,200 16 769,344 705,090 765,255 824,562 826,736 823,261 18 802,033 755,736 730,822 809,416 827,643 831,533 21 875,604 817,671 749,481 799,049 847,633 842,653 Male 14 383,373 356,108 412,067 416,361 423,660 417,736 16 396,751 360,832 392,053 423,099 424,301 422,629 18 411,313 387,706 375,138 414,863 425,045 427,149 21 446,484 420,794 382,914 409,296 435,438 433,372 Female 14 365,070 337,897 392,212 395,564 402,367 396,464 16 372,593 344,258 373,202 401,463 402,435 400,632 18 390,720 368,030 355,684 394,553 402,598 404,384 21 429,120 396,877 366,567 389,753 412,195 409,281

Source: Office for National Statistics

Table 4.1: Number of 21-year-olds in the population (2012-2022) – UK

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Total

875,604 861,260 839,440 838,909 815,463 817,671 821,722 802,256 792,279 768,999 749,481 8,983,084 Source: Office for National Statistics

262Schools, pupils and their characteristics: local authority and regional tables: SFR15/2014, Table 2a, Department for Education, January 2014, Table 2a www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/ attachment_data/file/335177/SFR15_2014_national_tables_v101.xlsx 263 State-funded primary and secondary schools 264Schools, pupils and their characteristics: local authority and regional tables: SFR15/2014, Table 2a, Department for Education, January 2014, Table 2a www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/335177/SFR15_2014_national_tables_v101.xlsx 265School Census Results, 2014, Welsh Government, January 2014, Table 1; http://wales.gov.uk/docs/statistics/2014/140724-school-census-results-2014-en.pdf 266 Maintained primary and secondary schools. There are also four middle schools. 267School Census Results, 2014, Welsh Government, January 2014, Table 5; http://wales.gov.uk/docs/statistics/2014/140724-school-census-results-2014-en.pdf 268 There are also 3,542 pupils in middle schools 269Pupil Census 2013 supplementary data, Scottish Government, February 2014, Table 1.1 www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/0044/00443349.xls 270 State-funded primary and secondary schools 271 The number of Independent schools is a reflection of the number of ‘member’ schools as registered by the Scottish Council of Independent Schools (SCIS) in their Directory of Independent Schools 2013/2014; www.scis.org.uk/assets/Uploads/Publications/IG0473SchoolsDirectory20132014FINALFORWEB.PDF 272Pupil Census 2013 supplementary data, Scottish Government, February 2014, Table 1.1 www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/0044/00443349.xls 273 The number of Independent school pupils reported by SCIS; www.scis.org.uk/facts-and-statistics 274Schools and pupils in Northern Ireland 1991/92 to 2013/14, Department of Education, March 2014, Table: Number of Educational Establishments in Northern Ireland by Management Type; www.deni.gov.uk/enrolment_time_series_updated_1314_r3. xlsx 275 Controlled and maintained primary (including grammar school prep departments) and post-primary schools (including grammar schools) 276Schools and pupils in Northern Ireland 1991/92 to 2013/14, Department of Education, March 2014, Table: Number of Pupils attending Educational Establishments in Northern Ireland by School Type; www.deni.gov.uk/enrolment_time_series_updated_1314_r3.xlsx

276 Years 1-7 pupils only 277 Years 1-7 pupils only

These population variations are also due to have a significant effect on Key Stage cohorts (Table 4.2). Key Stage 3 student numbers will fall from 2,202,021 in 2012 to 2,136,423 in 2017 but then increase by 12.6% between 2017 and 2022 (2,405,843). Key Stage 4 is affected significantly by a one-period drop of 9.7% between 2012 (1,539,170) and 2017

(1,389,144), before the number is set to recover to 1,544,166 in 2022.

4.1.1 School population in the UK

Table 4.3 shows that there are 4,116 state- maintained secondary schools in the UK, with 3,800,924 pupils – an average of 923 per school. In England, there are 3,181,360 pupils in 3,329 secondary schools – about 956 per school, more than the UK average. The number of pupils per school in England contrasts strongly with the rest of the UK. In Wales, there is an average of 875 students per school, in Scotland it is 794 students per school and in Northern Ireland around 686 students per school.

Table 4.2: Population projections by Key Stage (2012-2037) – UK

Years Overall Age 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 7-11 3,495,386 3,922,473 4,088,591 4,114,484 4,061,912 3,934,778 12-14 2,202,021 2,136,423 2,405,843 2,451,822 2,474,461 2,428,056 15-16 1,539,170 1,389,144 1,544,166 1,656,936 1,653,240 1,642,023 Total 63,705,030 65,824,545 67,900,618 69,522,983 70,564,192 71,080,266 Male 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 7-11 1,789,160 2,006,971 2,095,021 2,108,538 2,082,265 2,017,759 12-14 1,128,344 1,094,890 1,231,489 1,257,032 1,268,932 1,245,576 15-16 791,159 711,772 791,623 850,311 848,320 842,805 Total 31,315,072 32,482,191 33,604,658 34,482,683 35,058,902 35,370,051 Female 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 7-11 1,706,226 1,915,502 1,993,570 2,005,946 1,979,647 1,917,019 12-14 1,073,677 1,041,533 1,174,354 1,194,790 1,205,529 1,182,480 15-16 748,011 677,372 752,543 806,625 804,920 799,218 Total 32,389,958 33,342,354 34,295,960 35,040,300 35,505,290 35,710,215 Source: Office for National Statistics

Table 4.3: Number of primary and secondary schools and pupils by nation (2013 or 2014) – UK

Primary Secondary Independent

England: number of schools (January 2014)262, 263 _{16,788 3,329 2,411}

England: number of students (January 2014)264 _{4,416,710 3,181,360 578,975}

Wales: number of schools (January 2014)265, 266 _{1,357 213 70}

Wales: number of students (January 2014)267, 268 _{269,421 186,427 8,603}

Scotland: number of schools (2013)269, 270, 271 _{2,056 364 72}

Scotland: number of students (2013)272, 273 _{377,382 289,164 31,146}

Northern Ireland: number of schools (2013/14)274, 275 _{839 210 15}

278Schools, pupils and their characteristics: local authority and regional tables: SFR15/2014, Department for Education, January 2014, Table 7a; www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_ data/file/335178/SFR15_2014_LA_tables_v101.xlsx 279 Scotland and Northern Ireland use different categories and therefore have not been included 280 Black and minority ethnic 281A Portrait of Modern Britain, Policy Exchange, 2014, p7 282A Portrait of Modern Britain, Policy Exchange, 2014, p6 283 A Portrait of Modern Britain, Policy Exchange, 2014, p6 284 These categories differ from those employed by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) 285 Includes “White: Irish” and “White: other white” 286 Includes “Mixed: white and black Caribbean”, “Mixed: white and black African”, “Mixed: white and Asian” and “Mixed: other mixed” 287 Includes “Asian or Asian British: Indian”, “Asian or Asian British: Pakistani”, “Asian or Asian British: Bangladeshi”, and “Asian or Asian British: Other Asian” 288 Includes “Black or black British: Black Caribbean”, “Black or black British: black African” and “Black or black British: Other black” 289 Available at www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/peeg/population-estimates-by-ethnic-group--experimental-/current- estimates/population-estimates-by-ethnic-group-mid-2009--experimental--.zip. 290 The Population Estimates by Ethnic Group are experimental statistics and have not been shown to meet the standards required for National Statistics. Information on sources of uncertainty is provided in the Quality and Methodology Information document available from www.ons.gov.uk/ons/guide-method/method-quality/quality/quality- information/social-statistics/index.html

Table 4.4 shows the number of state secondary schools by region. In general, the figures reflect the number of students in each region, although geography also seems to play some part. For example, there is a higher number of schools in the South West than in Yorkshire and the Humber,

despite a slightly lower number of secondary pupils. As expected, there are significantly more schools in the most heavily populated region of the South East (489) compared with those at the other end of the population spectrum, such as the North East (188).