The process of developing scenarios

The researcher selected the seven step process to developing scenarios from Schoemaker (1995) as the approach used in the present study. The seven steps are explained and applied as follows:

a) Define the scope

This step involves setting the time frame and scope of analysis. In the case of the present study the time frame that has been considered is the water year of 1 July 2011- 30 June 2012. The scope of analysis has been identified as the implementation of ICM in the geographic area which is the catchment of the Gamtoos River.

50 b) Identify the Major stakeholders

According to Schoemaker (1995) this involves deciding who will have an interest in these issues, who will be affected by them and who could influence them. The developer needs to identify their current roles, interests and power positions and ask how they have changed over time and why. The stakeholders in the present study where identified through the interview process as follows:

 The GIB - Monitoring and distributing of the allocation of water to the various users.

Implementing agent for various government programs.

 The DWA - The National custodian of the water resources in the catchment as stipulated in the National water Act of 1998. Responsible for doing the allocations of water for the various water users.

 The Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality - Dependent on the water supply from the Kouga Dam for a percentage of the domestic water supply of the Nelson Mandela Bay Metropole.

 The Algoa water study group - Advisory to the DWA on general water issues and for future action.

 The Farmers of the Gamtoos Valley - Directly dependent on the water supply for the continuation of commercial agriculture taking place in the Gamtoos River Valley

 The local residents of the towns of Hankey and Patensie - Directly dependent on the supply of water for domestic use.

c) Identify Basic Trends

This involves identifying what political, economic, societal, technological, legal and industrial trends are sure to affect the issues identified in step one. In the case of the present study this refers to the implementation of ICM in the Gamtoos River Catchment. Schoemaker (1995) recommends the designing of an influence diagram as being helpful in this step. An influence diagram is simply a list of each recognized factor that may impact on the issue at hand, on a chart in order to identify its impacts on the present issue as positive, negative or uncertain. The following were identified as factors that could potentially impact on the implementation of ICM in Gamtoos River Catchment based on a review of interview responses and discussions: the

51 occurrence of periodic floods and droughts, historical changes in legislation, changes in water allocations, increases in farming activities and a growth in environmental interest groups. The influence of these trends on the implementation of ICM have been summarized in Table 3.3 below.

Table 3.3: Influence of trends on the implementation of ICM in the Gamtoos River Catchment

Factor Nature of influence

Positive Negative Uncertain

Droughts and Floods 

Change in legislation 

Change in water allocations 

Increase in farming activity 

Growth in environmental

interest groups 

d) Identify Key Uncertainties

At this stage the developer needs to identify what events, whose outcomes are uncertain, will significantly affect the issue that has been identified in the first step- that is, ICM in the Gamtoos River catchment. There is a need to consider economic, political, societal, technological, legal and industrial factors once again as was done in the third step- that is, identifying basic trends. In the case of the Gamtoos River Catchment, as outlined in Table 3.3, these uncertainties were singled out as follows: the effect that a major change in legislation may have and a change in the current allocations of water to different water users.

e) Construct Initial Scenario themes

Schoemaker (1995) is of the opinion that trends and uncertainties make up the main ingredients for scenario construction and having thus established them, the developer can use a simple approach to come up with themes. This suggested approach involves identifying extreme worlds by putting all positive elements in one and all negatives in another. This can also be

52 complimented by taking the top two uncertainties and weighing them against each other when it is evident that some uncertainties are more important than others. In the case of the Gamtoos River Catchment, the researcher began to establish themes based on all of the factors identified in Table 3.3 and the proposed influence that they may have on the implementation of ICM. This proved beneficial in the construction of the final scenarios used in the study.

f) Check for consistency

Schoemaker (1995) stresses that the „worlds‟ created in the preceding step are not yet fully-fledged scenarios due to the fact that they probably have internal inconsistencies and a lack of a compelling story line. There is a need to test for internal inconsistency and plausibility. This involves considering whether or not the trends identified are compatible within the chosen time frame, if they are not then they should be removed. The outcomes of uncertainties also need to be considered, having done so, these uncertainties need to be grouped together realistically.

Finally, the developer also needs to consider whether the major stakeholders have been placed in a position that can change as this means that a scenario can evolve into another one. If this is the case, it is best to choose to describe the latter scenario as it is the more stable. Only after having regarded consistency and plausibility can one then proceed to the seventh and final step.

g) Develop learning scenarios

By this stage, from the process of constructing simple scenarios and checking them for consistency, some general themes should emerge. After having reconsidered these themes with regard to implausibility, inconsistency and irrelevance the goal is to identify themes that are strategically relevant and then organize the possible outcomes and trends around them.

Schoemaker (1995) points out that although the trends, by definition, appear in all the scenarios they can be given more or less weight or attention in different scenarios. For instance, the growth in environmental interest groups which was identified as one of these factors impacting on the issue at hand-that is, a trend, in Table 3.3 may appear in one scenario as the central focus of the scenario upon which all other issues arise. On the other hand the same factor may appear merely as a contributing factor to some other factor that is given great emphasis. This variation in the presentation of different trends can be seen in the learning scenarios that were created for the present study. Schoemaker also suggests that naming the scenarios is important. The

53 reasoning for naming scenarios is thus, a scenario is a story, and by capturing its essence in a title you make the story easy to follow and remember.

The decided names for the scenarios used in the present study were thus:

 Scenario A: Optimal ICM in the Gamtoos River Catchment

 Scenario B: A level of success in efforts to implement ICM, with room for improvement

 Scenario C: Failure to implement ICM.

Schoemaker suggests that the scenarios that are created at this stage are deemed learning scenarios which are tools for research and study rather than for decision making. The titles and themes are focal points around which to develop and test the scenarios in order to make use of them for decision making purposes at a later stage. The seven steps provided by Schoemaker (1995) were followed in order to construct the three scenarios for ICM in the Gamtoos Catchment which are described in detail below in the proceeding section. These scenarios have been used by the researcher as tools for analysis in order to meet the following research objective: to determine whether or not implementation of ICM is a challenge in the Gamtoos River catchment and if so, to what extent is this the case.

3.5.5 Learning Scenarios for ICM in the Gamtoos River Catchment