1.4.1. Main theoretical considerations and strategies relevant to this case.
In this study the following theories from the literature review will take an important position:
- The protracted social conflict theory (Azar, 1991)
- Peace spoiler theory (Stedman, 1999)
- Negotiation strategies (Ramsbotham, Woodhouse & Miall, 2011)
- Greed and grievance theory (Collier & Hoeffler, 2003)
The protracted social conflict theory is of particular relevance as it allows capturing the social economic dimension of the conflict. As will be shown later in the case (chapter 2.1) this dimension can be regarded as an essential causal element of the grievances underlying the conflict.
The Peace spoiler theory is used as it will become clear from the case description that the peace process is a bumpy road with many different obstacles (= differing interests of participants).
Negotiation strategies are of relevance as different presidents have taken different strategies in order to deal with the conflict.
The relevance of the Greed and grievance theory is clear, as –historically- the loss of land, the inferior social status of the Moros has caused many grievances. Besides this, the ability to generate economic resources and external support are crucial for sustaining the conflict. Both aspects are relevant to this particular case.
1.4.2. Framework of analysis
In order to analyze the different phases of the conflict in a structured way, they are viewed through different lenses: the context, the state and the group. To gain a full picture of the context in which the parties interact, we can use three different levels of analysis: international, national and local. On the international level, this will provide insight into the world economy and regional stability. The national level can take into account factors such as the state of the national economy, regional differences and the dynamics of the political system. Lastly, the local level is suited to explain the situation in Mindanao and the conflict areas. For the state and the group lens, it is important to discern their specific positions, interests and needs at a certain moment in time. We can
32 also call this their perspective. These are constructed through internal and external (with the context) dynamics. This gives us the following framework:
Context : local, national and international events/developments. State : perspective based upon internal and external dynamics. Group : perspective based upon internal and external dynamics.
Four phases are selected. 1). January 1997 – February 2001, 2). March 2001 – July 2005, 3). August 2005 – May 2010, 4) June 2010 – March 2014.
Phase one will consist of the start of the peace negotiations under President Ramos and end with the impeachment trial and subsequent stepping down of President Estrada. The second phase starts with the presidency of Arroyo and is mostly dominated by the war on terrorism. It ends when the talks about ancestral domain start. Phase three is focused upon the theme of ancestral domain and the disruption of the peace process through the Supreme Court suspension order. It ends with the elections for a new president. Phase four starts with the presidency of Benigno Aquino and focuses upon a revived peace process, culminating in a Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro.
By using this framework consistently for all phases of the conflict, the study captures the time and context-specific factors that shape actors’ positions and relations.
1.4.3 Method
This study will focus on a single case. The existing gap of knowledge on how terrorist groups end is best improved by deeper exploration of the detailed processes that led to an end of the conflict with a terrorist groups. So what are the exact merits of the single case study method and how will this method be applied in the study?
The main contribution of a case study is its in-depth analysis. However, it is also important that case studies rely on a reference framework of a larger population of cases, to assess the particular situation of the case within a population of cases (Gerring, 2006). Most case-study designs rely on the representativeness of the case in relation to the larger population of cases concerning its
33 topic of investigation. A clear connection with that larger population of cases has been made in section 1.2, where several large-N studies are discussed.
Case studies can follow one or a combination of strategies. John Gerring concludes that there is no reason not to pursue more strategies if the case is suitable for several functions (Gerring, 2006). Certain strategies also apply to the case presented in section three. In some respects, the MILF presents a typical case that has similar features found in many other asymmetrical conflicts: mixed ideological orientation, legitimate grievances based on protracted social conflict, opportunities for greed-incentivized behavior, weak state institutions and two sets of deep-rooted negative perceptions of the ‘other’. This allows the ability to probe for causal relations along the correlative factors that were produced by the large-N studies. However, the case also presents the opportunity to pursue another strategy. Because the MILF is one of the few cases where a religiously-motivated insurgent group has been ended by political transition, it might also function as a deviant case-study. This holds that the outcome (Y= end by political transition) is accomplished with the existence of an unusual independent variable (X1= religious ideology). Furthermore, the case can serve a hypothesis- generating goal. A deviant case refines or tests a deductively presumed correlation (religious- motivated groups do not likely end by a political process), whereas a hypothesis generating-case inductively probes for special variables of interest, for example leadership (Lijphart, 1971). This might seem contradictory, but is not so strange. Research is about exploring new things, whether by deduction or induction. As Gerring already posed, pursue several strategies if the case allows for it (Gerring, 2006).
Another feature of the MILF case is that because of its long life-span, it presents a good opportunity for using comparative-historical analysis. Comparative-historical analysis is a research field that uses systematic comparison and analysis of processes over time to explain important outcomes, such as the end of conflict (Mahoney & Rueschemeyer, 2003). For this study, this is limited to within-case comparison. Frequently, such analysis is used in small-N studies that investigate the relation of a few important variables with the dependent variable. A method that is well suited for this type of research is process analysis. This method allows researchers to examine mechanism through which independent variables influence the dependent variable (George & Bennet, 2005). These linkages enrich our understanding of how the change in one variable or conjunction of variables causes the change in a dependent variable. Especially for an analysis of sequences of events within cases, this is a valuable tool of analysis (Mahoney, 2004). Such within- case comparison is the basis for this study. The peace process between the MILF and the GRP can be viewed in a continuum, but also in parts or sequences. To look at each phase on its own, but similarly
34 to place it within a continuum of historical events. Such a technique goes beyond the descriptive and causal inferences that can be drawn from statistical analysis.
1.4.4. Case selection
For studies with many cases, random selection may produce a good representativeness among the class of cases. This also prevents case selection bias (Gerring, 2006). However, in case study research with a small sample, this is problematic. Randomization will produce large variance in a sample within a large class of cases. Consequently, such selection will not produce a fair mean sample of the population of cases (Gerring, 2006). Case selection is necessary. In section 2.3 some reasons for selecting the MILF case were explained by reference to methods of analysis, here typical, deviant and process analysis. However, there are other matters that play a role. For example, the relevance the case has to policymakers and society at large. As the peace process is still underway, and there many active terrorist groups around the world, more knowledge could also prove valuable for both policymakers and ordinary civilians. The MILF case has a long history of troublesome and violent interactions on different levels: national/, regional and local. This makes it all the more interesting that despite a long history of violence and distrust, an accord for peace was struck in 2013. Such a positive case with an Islamic insurgency group may inspire and provide valuable lessons for policymakers to seek non-violent outcomes with similar groups.
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