Research Methods

The range of research methods available to critical realists is, depending upon the subject being examined, wide, and those utilized in this thesis are discussed here. (see Sayer, 2000, pp. 18-19).

Whilst the subject under investigation may narrow the field available to a particular set of questions, this thesis draws on a number of evidential sources. Because the analysis here is focussed on a party in opposition, rather than the typical use of statecraft to study government, there is no trail of legislation or government action to examine. In opposition, policy positions are usually more ethereal, based to a larger extent on rhetoric rather than paper, subject to change and the level of commitment to them can be more difficult to gauge (Fletcher, 2011). However, it is argued that party rhetoric is important in the formulation or reformulation of party statecraft. Speeches and in particular the media (print, and latterly, increasingly internet) allow for this to be examined in the absence of the more concrete trail of legislation although which has the potential (mis)lead the researcher into a hunt for policy consistency that ignores wider statecraft.

Polling Data

Quantitative data is not drawn on directly, but secondary polling data is analysed qualitatively.

Whilst the use and reliability of polling data can be frowned on, it does have utility for statecraft analyses. Rather than being treated as a factual assessment of a party’s performance at any given time; polling data is used as a way of gauging aspects of party statecraft between elections. In this sense it gives an indication of how parties are performing relative to each other, and also how they

4 Questions of structure and agency are discussed in greater length later in Chapter 2 of this thesis.

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perform in particular parts of the party political process and policy areas (Butler and Kavanagh, 2002, pp. 119-122). Where possible, data from sources that consolidate data from a range of polling companies and compilers is used, to minimize the chances of basing statements on eccentric or biased data. It used by politicians themselves⁵ and the media to assess party performance, it is also contemporaneous to the events being studied, and is consequently beneficial for analysing the components of party statecraft (Burnham et al, 2004, pp. 81-83).

Secondary analysis of literature

Existing academic literature relating to the period under study is analysed under the statecraft framework. As discussed in the following chapter, the statecraft approach was formulated as a way of drawing together a macro-analysis from the common themes of the existing (interdisciplinary if appropriate) research where possible (Bulpitt, 1986, pp. 19- 20). This has to be done with care, and it is important to maintain an awareness of the explicit or more likely implicit perspective from which existing literature is written. Conservative Party policy documents are used where available, as are biographies, diaries, scholarly and semi-scholarly articles written by political figures, insider and participant accounts. All of these entail benefits and potential dangers (for a discussion see Grix, 2004, pp. 130-137). Party documents are obviously just that, they often have policies or at least a perspective to promote. Political biographies and insider or participant accounts may have an ‘axe to grind’ or they may exaggerate their role or the culpability of another (Richards, 1996). It is also the case that being an insider is no guarantee of interpretive accuracy when attributing causation for political and social phenomena, but despite these failings, they give insights into areas that would otherwise be difficult to study (Burnham, et al, 2004, p. 169; Gamble, 2002, pp. 141-142).

Conservative Party archive material is subject to a general 30-year rule, and although in some circumstances access to material from between 1983 and 1997 may be applied for, everything post-1997 is closed (Conservative Party Archive, 2012).

5 It should be noted that whilst politicians often claim to be ignorant of polling data, or they seek to undermine polling data that negatively presents their case, in my time as part of a local campaign strategy team small scale centrally funded polling was undertaken both to assess ‘marginality’ of seats (for targeting purposes) and to test issues (see Price, 2010).

Media

The print, and now increasingly internet media, forms an important part of the evidential base of this thesis. The use of news ‘reports’ and commentary may be encumbered, not just as a result of the individual’s own perspective in writing the article, but also with varying degrees of political baggage, and will usually conform in the general sense, with the bias of the newspaper or media organization it is published in (Grix, 2004, p. 134). The traditional advice to ensure one draws on media sources of equal quality, and from a range of political bias has merit, and is adhered to here in the use of all of the English national broadsheets to some extent (Grix, 2004, p. 134). However, the tone of the articles across the media can be just as important as the quality and bias of the analysis.

This is no place for a discussion about the relative influence of the broadsheet or tabloid media (on politicians or the public) but the reaction of papers across the spectrum provides a vital and often near immediate and contemporaneous reaction to a party’s performance (see Grix, 2004, p. 134).

Indeed, along with polling, the media provide the most significant way of assessing party statecraft, or at least the popular reaction to it, ‘in time’ and between electoral cycles. It is also of importance to political leaders themselves, whether that is with their attempts to garner support from sections of the media, or the extent to which party officials, if not party leaders, test to measure the response of the media to certain actions or proposals (Price, 2010).

Participant Observation

Grix describes how in many instances a researcher will draw on at least some form of observation, and this is the case with this thesis (2004, p.103). As already mentioned, this project originated, at least in part, from a personal interest and involvement in politics, which provides a degree of privileged⁶ participant observation to the mix. As a participant and an observer I have been involved in politics as a local councillor, a party member, an association officer, a campaign team member, a strategy group member⁷, a regular attendee at party conferences, and a member of policy orientated independent groups aligned with the Conservative Party. It is rare to meet anyone involved in

6 I’m not entirely sure privileged is the correct word to describe delivering a ‘dawn raid’ of leaflets at 5am on election day or being told to ‘go away’ in colourful language after disturbing someone’s evening rest with a canvassing call.

7 Which included a glimpse of the Ashcroft campaigning apparatus.

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politics who doesn’t seek to embellish, at least a little, their involvement and influence in the process, for some, being around politicians is like being close to ‘celebrities’ is for others. I had little influence in many of these matters, but it does provide access to discussions, conversations, briefings, and even the general ‘mood of the party’ that I would not otherwise have had, these are drawn on in subsequent chapters.

Participant observation can be problematic, and it is worth exploring some of the issues it entails, and how they relate to the work here. The ethical problems of participant observation can be substantial (see Turnbull, 1994; Coolican, 1999, p. 75 and p. 114). Many of these concerns are mitigated here because the political involvement came first. I did not seek to infiltrate a group for the purposes of observing them; although I have asked questions, and carefully listened to some individuals, that in the absence of my research interest, my sanity might have suggested I avoid. It is also the case that in most of the instances where I could claim a participant observer role, those around me were aware, even if only in general terms, that I was a research student, with an academic interest in the subject matter, I did not seek to deceive anyone about that. In addition, perhaps most importantly, there are a few things I could mention or reference that would be a breach of trust to those I worked⁸ with, because it would be revealing things that were quite clearly said to me, or observed by me in confidence. It should also be noted that some of the events in question, for example conference events and conference fringe events were essentially open to the public or journalists subject to accreditation and not private events which might entail greater ethical concerns.

It is important to acknowledge that my role as a participant observer comes with its own baggage. I am interpreting events, and that interpretation may not be shared by others. In line with the discussion of ontology and epistemology earlier in this section, and however much I might try to set aside my own beliefs, they will inevitably cloud the assessments I form (see Marsh and Furlong, 2002, pp. 18- 20 for a discussion of hermeneutics).

8 In a voluntary capacity.

Interviews

Elite interviews have not been utilized in this thesis. Whilst interviews can be an important evidential source, they are also problematic, in the general sense and the specific sense for the statecraft approach and period under investigation here (for a discussion see Burnham et al, 2004, pp. 205-220; Grix 2004, pp.125-128; Walliman, 2001, pp. 234-240). In many circumstances the general problems associated with interviews can be mitigated against to some in extent, whether that is through interviewing several elites and triangulation to overcome deficiencies of memory;

individual bias, self-aggrandizement, or self-justification (Seldon, 1988, pp.8-11; Berry, 2002).

Seldon says that

“Evidence suggests that the least satisfactory group are (ex) politicians who often encounter pathological difficulties in distinguishing the truth, so set have their minds become by the long experience of partisan thought” (1988, p. 10).

Equally problematic can be the considerable training politicians receive in answering, and importantly, avoiding answering questions (Harvey, 2011, p. 433). Whilst a skilled interviewer can seek to surmount this, it is a problem that is exacerbated here because this thesis is to a large extent concerned with a period where the key figures in the analysis currently hold high political office or they and their advisers remain intimately involved in the Conservative Party or current government.

Whilst access problems relating to some of the figures may be overcome, their need to maintain established narratives will be strong; and several key figures involved in the 2001-2010 period have already given accounts of their actions, which they are unlikely to deviate from (Richards, 1996).

There is also one further consideration, which is certain to be more controversial. Although other considerations are important, the statecraft approach assumes that political leaders are principally concerned with gaining and retaining office (Bulpitt, 1986, pp. 19-23). No current politician, and few former politicians will openly admit this is their principally political motivation, they will cite

‘doing what is right for Britain’, acting in the ‘national interest’, ‘making a difference’, or ‘righting wrongs’ as prompting their interest in politics (for example Cameron, 2009d; Cameron, 2010b;

Sparrow, 2009; Wintour, 2010). Others, will often attribute a political leaders choice of action to ideology, which is doubtless important, but overtly seeking office has Machiavellian and negative connotations (although see Powell, 2010). Ethically, I would have felt obliged to inform

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interviewees of the basic premise of the approach, which they would have either disputed, or equally likely, put them on their guard. It can only be assumed, but this is potentially why statecraft analyses of more contemporaneous events have not traditionally been based on elite interviews (see for example Bulpitt, 1986; Bulpitt, 1988; Bulpitt, 1992; Buller, 2000; and see also Bulpitt, 1983;

Stevens, 2002; Taylor, 2005).

1.5 Conclusion

This chapter began by outlining three questions which this thesis seeks to address. The questions ask: why the Conservative Party languished in opposition for so long, despite the torrent of advice about what it needed to do to recover; why core vote strategies are seen as so important for understanding the period; and why the Conservative Party seemed to recover so quickly after 2005.

After outlining these research questions, the existing literature of the period has been discussed and explored, and it is argued it fails to adequately provide answers to the questions set. Some problematic aspects of the literature are common throughout the 2001-2010 period, in particular the lack of theoretically informed work on the Conservative party at this time. Much of the work is descriptive and does not proceed from an explicit theoretical or conceptual position. It is also the case that many of the analyses concentrate on specific aspects such as the personalities of the leaders at various points between 2001- 2010, ideology, or policy. It has been argued that many of these place too much emphasis on either structural or agential causal factors by concentrating on individuals or processes, or abstracting the study of the Conservative party from its context. These can only provide a partial explanation of the Conservative Party at this time, because they are only concentrating on certain aspects of the period. What is needed is a theoretically informed approach that seeks to draw together these aspects of Conservative history and assess them in terms of their proper context: the party political context and environment at the time.

The modest attention the 2001 to 2005 period receives sees two dominate themes emerge. The first is that the leadership of Iain Duncan Smith was so poor that it virtually predetermined the party’s

failure that followed because he simply wasn’t up to the task of leading the party. This is then linked to the process used to elect him as Conservative Leader, which was structurally flawed in the way it allowed a candidate to win the leadership, without majority support of the parliamentary party. The literature argues the process was so flawed that it allowed an incapable compromise candidate to prevail. The second theme dominates the post 2003 period and that is the emphasis that is placed on the core vote strategy that Michael Howard is regarded as having pursued in the 2005 general election. Both of these have been explored in this section, and it is argued that both serve to close off a more detailed analysis of the party and the party political context at this time and can only provide a partial answer to the questions this thesis seeks to explore. The statecraft approach adopted in this thesis overcomes this by studying the period in its own right, and in concentrating on how the party sought, but failed to return to, an electable position and highlights the importance of the party political environment and constraints on the Conservative Party at this time.

After 2005, the emphasis changes, but the existing literature is still deficient. As the party is seen as changing the search for consistency, especially in relation to the ideology of the party or its leadership, overlooks the reality of a political party seeking to return to electability. It is argued that studying the Conservative Party under Cameron from the perspective of the statecraft approach that proceeds from an assumption that political parties principally seek office, has the potential to overcome the disconnect between the study of ideology and the practice of politics by political parties in the existing literature. Cameron was principally, though not solely, interested in returning the Conservative party to office, in a dynamic and constantly changing party political environment.

The search for consistency misses this point and provides a superficial account of party change by stigmatising inconsistency which rather than a sign of leadership failure, can occur for sound strategic or tactical reasons.

Finally, this chapter finishes with a section exploring the research process. Here the meta-theoretical assumptions that underpin the approach are rendered explicit as ontological, epistemological, methodological factors and research methods are explored. The statecraft framework outlined and

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developed in the next chapter, and applied in the empirical chapters that follow is based on critical realism and draws on a range of research methods to address the key areas of the existing academic literature that it has been argued are presently deficient.

Chapter 2