Scenario Outcome Estimation

An estimation of where and when missiles will be destroyed by the enemy SAM sites can be calculated. The main influencing factor is the velocity difference between the LRAGMs and the SAMs. The SAMs have almost three times the velocity of the LRAGM, meaning that three SAMs can fly the distance of the maximum range of the SAM system, in the time it takes one LRAGM to cover the same distance. This gives the SAM site considerable advantage against the LRAGM. Note that there is a min- imum range for the SAM site of 1500m. This is the minimum required distance for safe launch, acquisition of the target and acceleration to an intercept condition. Once through the minimum range of the missiles it is assumed the Air-to-Surface Missile (ASM) will hit their target.

There are a number of launch properties that can be manipulated to maximise the success rate and minimise the total number of weapons needed to hit all four targets. Firstly there is the salvo size. Weapons on aircraft are typically symmetrically paired across the pylons used to attach them to the airframe so as to balance the aircraft by maintaining a cross sectional centre of gravity in a vertical plane aligned with the air- craft’s nose to tail axis. When launched there are two settings that are used to control

the timing and even launching of the weapons. These are known as Ripple Time and Salvo Size. Ripple Time is the time between subsequent launches of the same weapon type. Salvo Size is the total number of that particular weapon to be launched. For example, a Ripple Time of 1 second and a Salvo Size of 4 will launch four weapons in one second intervals from the pylons on both the left and right of the aircraft, two from each side.

The next property that can be configured is the time between salvoes that are launched. This is an action that must be carried out by the pilot or between pilots if more than one delivery aircraft is being used (for larger number of weapons than can be carried by one aircraft). The smaller the time difference between salvoes the more weapons there are to be shot down at the same time by the SAM site. A combination of high salvo sizes and reduced time between salvoes can result in overwhelming of the SAM site, as there is a limit to the number of targets that the SAM site can shoot at simultaneously.

From an operator’s perspective, having weapons spread over time will allow for more time to make any potential re-tasking decisions. Separating out the missiles allows operators to approach the overall task in stages, and allows them to concentrate on the missiles closer to their targets, and then switch their attention to following missiles without becoming overwhelmed. This is the capability estimation this research aimed to expose. At what salvo size and time interval do operators become overwhelmed?

An automated test case was generated to allow the calculation of the effect of salvo sizes and time interval between salvoes on the enemy’s ability to intercept incoming missiles. With the pkill of 0.25, and four launchers, the distance and time of each posi- tive intercept of an incoming missile was calculated. An assumption was made for the worst case scenario from the perspective of the attacker. A missile was guaranteed to be intercepted each loop (4 launched intercept missiles with pkill 0.25 = 1 per intercept). The points of impact are dependent on the size of the salvoes and the time difference between them. The solution is generated using the iteration loop shown in Figure 6.5.

Are ASMs Within SAM Range? Calculate SAM Range To ASM Calculate Time to Intercept Calculate Intercept Position Move Wave to Intercept Position Remove 1 ASM and 1 SAM No Yes End No Yes _SAMs Remaining? Start Wait

Figure 6.5: Iteration Loop to find SAM vs. ASM Intercept Positions

In the overload scenario, with all missiles launched simultaneously, it can be seen that 7 missiles are destroyed before the weapons break through the SAM site’s engagement area (see Figure 6.6). This Figure shows the raid of LRAGM flying towards the SAM site and the impact points of each engagement between the enemy SAM and a LRAGM. However, if the time between salvoes is increased to only 1 second, 8 missiles will be lost to the SAM system. As the enemy SA-15 systems only have 8 missiles each, the SAM site only has the potential to destroy 8 incoming missiles. Therefore, given that once 8 of the LRAGM missiles are destroyed the enemy’s stocks will be depleted, there is no need to group weapons closely together over time as it does not give an advantage.

The reload time of the SA-15 system sets an upper limit on the time between salvoes used. The LRAGMs should not be spaced apart such that a system could reload and continue to fire upon incoming missiles. The time interval between salvoes, for LRAGMs grouped in twos, that would give the enemy SAM site enough time to reload can be estimated. Given that the first 8 missiles are wasted, if the following 8 missiles take longer than 10 minutes to hit their targets then these missiles are at risk of being destroyed. This would only occur if the time between salvoes is more than 70 seconds, leaving a time of 71x8 = 568s, plus the time it takes to travel through the enemy en- gagement zone, (12000m−1500m)/303ms−1= 34s, giving a total of 10 minutes and 2

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000

2 Per Salvo 0 Second Spacing

Intercept Number Range (metres) 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 0 1 2 3 4 5 6x 10

4 _{2 Per Salvo 10 Second Spacing}

Intercept Number Range (metres) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000

4 Per Salvo 0 Second Spacing

Intercept Number Range (metres) 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3x 10

4 _{4 Per Salvo 10 Second Spacing}

Intercept Number Range (metres) SAM Impacts LRAGMs at Intercept Max Range Min Range SAM Impact (Stream) LRAGM Stream (first) LRAGM Stream (last)

Figure 6.6: Estimates of Defending SAMs Intercept of Incoming LRAGM, by Iteration of Successful Intercept, and Range