Pakistani Government
Step 7: Re-sort the remaining permutations, listing them from most to least credible, as shown in Table 9.8
In this case study, the three permutations that received a rating of 4 and the three permutations that received a rating of 3 all deserve serious consideration. Several reasons can be given for assigning these permutations high ratings:
▸ The common flu kills thousands of people each year in the United States, and there have been past instances where a variant of the virus has caused an unusually high number of deaths.
▸ It is just as possible that some new form of a naturally occurring virus other than the common flu has broken out in the region and that a new pathogen is causing normally healthy people to die.
▸ There are multiple examples of radical extremists groups using biological agents to cause illness in the United States, as well as the celebrated case of a Japanese terrorist group, Aum Shinrikyo, dispersing sarin gas in the Tokyo subway system on 20 March 1995, causing hundreds of casualties.
Table 9.6 ▸ Multiple Hypotheses GeneratorTM: Death in the Southwest Alternative Hypotheses
Lead Hypothesis: Healthy young Navajos are dying from exposure to a virulent form of the common flu virus.
Components Who? What? How?
Lead Hypothesis Components
Navajo Virulent Form of the Common Flu
Step 4 & 5: Generate a list of possible permutations.
Discard any permutations that simply make no sense.
The best way to array the various permutations is to create a permutation tree with multiple branches, as illustrated in Table 9.7. Once all the permutations are listed,
Slightly less credible would be these three possibilities:
▸The history of the United States is replete with stories of hate crimes targeting minority populations. The use of a biological agent to target such people would not be surprising, particularly given recent history of a scientist sending anthrax through the mail to members of the US Congress and the media.
▸The Four Corners region is largely rural, and it is possible that a new chemical substance or herbicide was recently introduced by farmers and is causing people to become ill and some to die.
▸People in certain locations, possibly at Fort Wingate, have been accidentally exposed to a new and, for some, lethal form of a natural pathogen that is being developed or processed as part of a weaponization program.
Step 8: Restate the permutations as hypotheses.
The top six permutations could be restated as hypotheses in the following way:
▸ People in the Four Corners region are dying from a particularly virulent form of the common flu.
▸ People in the Four Corners region are dying from a naturally occurring, new, and still unknown natural pathogen.
▸ Someone (most likely international terrorists) is spreading a lethal biological pathogen to terrorize the population; similar attacks in other parts of the United States may be imminent.
▸ Someone (most likely a white supremacist group) is using a lethal biological agent like ricin or anthrax to kill members of the Navajo Nation.
Table 9.7 ▸ Multiple Hypotheses GeneratorTM: Death in the Southwest Permutation Tree
Who? What? Why? Permutations Credibility Score
Only Navajos
Virulent Form of the Common Flu
Act of Nature Only Navajos are dying from a virulent form of the common flu. discard Intentional Act of Man Someone is using a virulent form of the common flu to kill Navajos. discard Accidental Exposure Only Navajos are dying from accidental exposure to a virulent form
of the common flu.
discard
Unknown Disease (Natural Pathogen)
Act of Nature Only Navajos are dying from a new, unknown natural pathogen. 1 Intentional Act of Man Someone is using a new, unknown natural pathogen to kill
Navajos. 3
Accidental Exposure Only Navajos are dying from accidental exposure to a new, unknown natural pathogen.
discard
Chemical Toxin
Act of Nature Only Navajos are dying from a naturally occurring chemical toxin. 1 Intentional Act of Man Someone is using a chemical toxin to kill Navajos. 2 Accidental Exposure Only Navajos are dying from accidental exposure to a chemical
toxin.
discard
Anyone
Virulent Form of the Common Flu
Act of Nature People are dying from a virulent form of the common flu. 4 Intentional Act of Man Someone is using a virulent form of the common flu to kill people. discard Accidental Exposure People are dying from accidental exposure to a virulent form of the
common flu. discard
Unknown Disease (Natural Pathogen)
Act of Nature People are dying from a naturally occurring new, unknown pathogen.
4
Intentional Act of Man Someone is using a new, unknown pathogen to kill people. 4 Accidental Exposure People are dying from accidental exposure to a new, unknown
natural pathogen.
3
Chemical Toxin
Act of Nature People are dying from a naturally occurring chemical toxin. 2 Intentional Act of Man Someone is using a chemical toxin to kill people. 2 Accidental Exposure People are dying from accidental exposure to a chemical toxin. 3
Death in the Southwest 99
▸People who work at Fort Wingate have been accidentally exposed to a new, unknown natural pathogen.
▸People living in the Navajo Nation have been accidentally exposed to a toxic chemical substance.
Step 9: Select from the top of the list those alternative hypotheses most deserving of attention and note why these hypotheses are most interesting (see Table 9.9).
Most of the symptoms manifested by those becoming sick or dying point to a naturally occurring disease as the most likely culprit. Although most of the victims are members of the Navajo Nation, other members of the general population also are dying. At this stage in the investigation, a key question is, What could have caused this new, natural pathogen to emerge? Is it a naturally occurring phenomenon, or was it intentionally introduced by someone to cause terror or to kill members of the Navajo Nation? The presence of Fort Wingate in the region also
raises the possibility that people working there are being accidentally exposed to a lethal chemical or biological substance used in a weapons program at that facility.
Table 9.8 ▸ Multiple Hypotheses GeneratorTM: Death in the Southwest Hypotheses Re-sorted by Credibility
Permutations Credibility Score
People are dying from a virulent form of the common flu. 4
People are dying from a naturally occurring new, unknown pathogen. 4
Someone is using a new, unknown natural pathogen to kill people. 4
Someone is using a new, unknown natural pathogen to kill Navajos. 3
People are dying from accidental exposure to a new, unknown natural pathogen. 3
People are dying from accidental exposure to a chemical toxin. 3
Someone is using a chemical toxin to kill Navajos. 2
People are dying from a naturally occurring chemical toxin. 2
Someone is using a chemical toxin to kill people. 2
Only Navajos are dying from a naturally occurring chemical toxin. 1
Only Navajos are dying from a new, unknown natural pathogen. 1
Only Navajos are dying from a virulent form of the common flu. discard
Someone is using a virulent form of the common flu to kill Navajos. discard
Only Navajos are dying from accidental exposure to a virulent form of the common flu. discard Only Navajos are dying from accidental exposure to a new, unknown natural pathogen. discard
Only Navajos are dying from accidental exposure to a chemical toxin. discard
Someone is using a virulent form of the common flu to kill people. discard
People are dying from accidental exposure to a virulent form of the common flu. discard
Table 9.9 ▸ Multiple Hypotheses GeneratorTM: Death in the Southwest Top Hypotheses
Top Hypotheses Credibility Score 1. People are dying from a virulent form of
the common flu.
4
2. People are dying from a naturally occurring
new, unknown natural pathogen. 4
3. Someone is using a new, unknown natural pathogen to kill people.
4
4. Someone is using a new, unknown natural pathogen to kill Navajos.
3
5. People are dying from accidental exposure to a new, unknown natural pathogen.
3
6. People are dying from accidental exposure to a chemical toxin.
3
Analytic Value Added: Which hypotheses should be explored further? Additional medical tests should be conducted to help determine if a new virus might be the cause of the problem. Researchers also need to investigate how the victims acquired the pathogen. What commonalities exist in terms of where the victims worked, where they played, what locations they all might have frequented, or what work practices they might all share? If domestic radical extremists or terrorists were to blame, then research is needed to investigate why they would be targeting the Four Corners region or, more specifically, members of the Navajo Nation. For example, are there any recent postings on the Internet by such groups that would suggest that an attack on members of the Navajo Nation was justified? The chances that Fort Wingate is the source of the problem would be greatly increased if most of those who became ill worked at the fort or had relatives or acquaintances who worked there. Almost certainly, there would be press reports and a major “buzz” in the local community if Fort Wingate were the actual source of the problem.
Which of the six key components (Who? What? How?
When? Where? and Why?) can be set aside because they are “givens,” and why? The case study is challenging because many of the answers to these questions overlap. For exam-ple, the answer to Where? would indicate a natural cause if the Where turned out to be pastureland or farmland and, alternatively, an act of man if a specific location was identi-fied that all the victims have frequented in recent weeks. The Why component poses similar challenges; at a minimum it focuses attention on what specific groups would have motive to launch an attack aimed at the Navajo Nation or the Four Corners region.
Which hypotheses from the original list were carded, and why? Most of the hypotheses that were dis-carded were dropped because the internal logic of the permutation did not stand up to scrutiny. For example, a terrorist is not likely to use the common flu to cause a large-scale panic, nor would the use of the common flu be likely to generate large numbers of casualties.
TECHNIQUE 5: ANALYSIS OF COMPETING HYPOTHESES
Analysts face a perennial challenge of working with incomplete, ambiguous, anomalous, and sometimes deceptive data. In addition, strict time constraints on analysis and the need to “make a call” often conspire with a number of natural human cognitive tendencies to result in inaccurate
or incomplete judg ments. Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) improves the analyst’s chances of overcoming these challenges by requiring the analyst to identify and refute possible hypotheses using the full range of data, assumptions, and gaps that are pertinent to the problem at hand.
Task 5.
Develop a set of hypotheses and use the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses software to identify which hypotheses provide the most credible explanation for the deaths in this case. Contact Globalytica, LLC at THINK Suite@globalytica.
com or go to http://www.globalytica.com to obtain access to the basic software, or the collaborative version called Te@mACH, if it is not available on your system.
Step 1: Generate a set of hypotheses to be considered