Specific hypotheses to be tested

(1) Has the observed fecundity reduction led to a situation where fewer individuals are transmitting their genes to a following generation? Body size is often highly correlated to fitness associated traits such as longevity, metabolic rate and fecundity (Calder, 1995). For example, studies on mammals (Conaway et al., 1974) and birds (Jetz et al., 2008) have shown the differences in female body size due to geographical variation, affects subsequent clutch size. Similarly, amphibians have been studied with comparable results, except that for Castellano et al., (2004), both the clutch size and offspring size of Bufo viridis was affected. Since a reduction in clutch size reduces the survival chances of some tadpoles, the effective population size also becomes reduced. As a result of the underlying demographic and ecological factors affecting mating system processes, skews, such as male-biased ones, may develop. Indeed, the effective population size/consensus size ratio is already somewhat skewed for amphibians (Ficetola et al., 2010), with a higher variance of reproductive success indicated for the common toad compared to other amphibians (Brede & Beebee, 2004). This is of concern when considering the long-term viability and potential detrimental effects of genetic erosion in isolated populations (Frankham et al., 2002).

(2) Are there any associations between individual-specific genotypes (DNA profiles) and the amount of fitness reduction observed under increased temperatures? Heterozygosity is often correlated with fitness, since inbreeding favours homozygosity which subsequently, can result in the increase of deleterious recessive alleles. Inbreeding depression studies, by virtue of pedigree-based breeding experiments, have been conducted (reviewed in Hansson & Westerberg, 2002); and heterozygosity-fitness correlations have been shown (e.g. Hildner & Soule, 2004; Fitzpatrick & Evans, 2009). However, studies have focused on organisms such as mammals (Ruiz-Lopez et al., 2009), birds (Blomqvist et al., 2010) and amphibian tadpoles (Kraaijeveld-Smit et al., 2006; Ficetola et al., 2010). The current study aims to investigate this phenomenon of heterozygosity-fitness correlations, of which, at present, no such studies for adult amphibians exist.

(3) Are fitness traits inherited across generations (e.g., do fecund females produce fecund daughters)?

High levels of genetic diversity are required for species to adapt when confronted with changing environmental conditions or threats such as disease, parasites or predation. Predictably, then, fragmentation or changes to natural habitat are factors that have detrimental effects on a population’s well-being (Amos & Harwood, 1998). Indeed, the genetic diversity of the common toad has been shown to be related to habitat change. This was due to the variability of effective population sizes (Scribner et al., 1997) between ponds, which was partly due to different aquatic breeding habitats (Scribner et al.,

2001). The current study is to investigate the underlying genetic mechanisms for the observed (Reading, 2001) reduction in female body condition in relation to increased annual temperatures. If the most fecund females produce the most fecund daughters then this can be interpreted as an evolutionary response to climate change by the common toad. If this is the case, then due to the variance in fitness of the females, the effective population size may become reduced. This is because, a reduction in fitness means a reduction in clutch size and disadvantages during sexual selection for those females who are less fecund. Subsequently, the already low effective population size may get further reduced (Scribner et al., 1997); and, because heterozygosities are always lowered due to a decrease in effective population size, the heterozygosity-fitness correlations are made more significant (Ficetola et al., 2010).

8. Summary

Upon completion of the current study a full molecular-marker based pedigree will be presented, which will be the first of its kind for amphibians. The research should allow an understanding of the underlying mechanisms causing adverse effects of environmental change to wildlife populations, furnishing us with important tools to prevent future extinctions.

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