CJ
I missed this one as I hadn't even looked at it....notice the on the way up and sell them on the way down....
I'm still around though not as active.... a lot of the questions are starting to repeat...and most are an-swered by the group here....
As I said earlier, I don't trade like a madman eve-ryday and some days I don't trade at all. I trade to make money. Sometimes I do it with a lot of or-ders, other times I do it with a few. I said before nobody needed to trade like I was trading earlier in the thread, to make money. It's not about the pips you make, it about making money.
My trade numbers have dropped off as I have been
spending less time in the charts.... that doesn't mean that profits have dropped with the number of trades....it's all in the lots...
So the 'accumulation' stage is to be considered as stage 1, is that correct? Or is this not a text book setup? A push slightly higher into the 1.3125 area seems to offer some decent R. Would I be missing out if I hung around for price to get there and then look for the M (assuming a different count).
As you can probably tell, I'm only getting my feet wet here so appreciate the help.
There's no such thing as a text book setup....some are better than others but they always throw shit into the game so it's not always the same.
You can call it an accumulation phase if you like. You are looking at a H1 chart.... you need to ac-count for the time difference when you move to higher time frames. However, the patterns remain the same.
When price reaches the 3rd level, it becomes erratic and "chops" all over the place. You know you're there when it just doesn't look like normal price action. Look through your charts and you will see what I'm talking about. This erratic price action is drawing both bulls and bears into the pot again and the fox is taking orders. Look how long they accumulated orders here. Notice how they never went back to the lower levels once they left them....they didn't want to release any peo-ple who went short down there. Look how long they spent in level 1 and how short it took for them to close out the orders at a much higher price.
News is not news to some people and they plan this stuff. They use the news to cover their ass and pocket gobs of your money.
Same thing will happen at the tops...look for the "chop" in level 3. Then look for the "W" or "M" to enter your orders. Do it at the HIGH or the LOW, not in the middle...
I've said most of this before...trade from the edges, the highs and the lows. You can't figure out every candle of every day and there is no 1-2-3 buy or sell indicator out there.
This is all about you and your perception as well as you reading the price action. Nothing else. You can "wish" for price to go to a set point but that's not what this is about. It's about recognizing what the market maker is doing to make his cash. He usually does it by convincing you to give it to him.
If you expect price to rise to 1.3125 then why not BUY it?
CJ
Have you seen anything in the charts posted in this thread that looks like this chart?
What triggers the trade is the drop out of the range after the stops were hit high...the drop hits the stops low, the "W", not an "M" is formed and price begins its climb to the next level...I expect another level of rise after the 2nd....
Do you see the large stop hunt that is in the middle of the "range phase"? This is how they add variation to the same basic patterns. It's up to you to recognize this, there's nothing I can do but point it out to every-body. They use a "news" event to jack price up and down to clear people from there orders, stop them out, bust out accounts in margin trouble and place people in the wrong side of where they will take
price...thereby taking their money. I can only point this out and can't tell you how you will know something only you will know...if you ever do. ;)
Like what cj said, he doesn't expect anyone to trade like him, and I believe many of us who have posted the pictures have already integrated what we learnt into our own trading styles. Mine and edi(swisscheese) is similar in the sense that we look for pins to determine entry. However the exact position depends on when we are facing the charts and sometimes gut feel or experience which can never really be taught.
Edi does stack trades to double or triple the profits when things go his way.
Xrismak has adopted this into his trading, however his style is to open multiple lots with about the same price in the same period and let it rip, rather than cj way of stacking when price goes his way.
Do note that whatever it is, you can never trade like cj simply because you are not him.
Myself, after integrating cj way of trading, my hit rate has gone from hit and miss to 60% with nb 10.x to almost 100%. Problem is sometimes I put in stupid trades that ended up screwing me around.
Also I.m not doing this naked, my charts does have indicators to tell me where to look out for potential set-up and TP areas
The rabbit hole is deeper than you could imagine....but what lurks there is not a rab-bit...
Most people have trouble with some of what I consider some of the "simpler con-cepts" of my theories. It is for this reason, that I feel they don't "really believe"
the market is as I say it is and that they are playing from a stacked deck. They cannot "see" be-cause they cannot believe.
Forecasting price? I've explained it to many before.... one or two's vision "began" to clear but about that time, they lost what they found, deep back down the "rabbit hole"....
To get into the "mapping" of price, I rely of my beliefs of what the forex market is, how it's trad-ed, that price it's not "random", that news it not news to everybody, and that price is driven by more than supply and demand, fundamentals or anything other than greed. ...
Consider the data that the candles on your screen hold. From the smallest to the largest, they are comprised of price ticks... the tick chart is where it all begins....
Have you ever looked at that little "tick chart" window on MT4? Ever wonder why they made it so small and limited? Do you understand the scaling changes on it as it does the larger charts but not in the same way or for the same reasons? Something to watch on a slow day or night....that's for sure as you just might "see" something familiar there....
kwanann wrote:
welcome back CJ
Wow, looking at your lot size.. Fantastic!
A don't look for perfect entry and exit.... I tend to take my money off the table before I should a lot of the time, but at that point, it IS my money...and I want to keep it when I'm comfortable with the trade profit. It also cuts down on my exposure to "the market".
I will ask you Kwanann, but the same applies to all... Is it not harder to find 10 trades across 10 pairs with multiple entries and lots totaling 100 lots total, than it is to find 3-5 trades and push the same number of lots at the smaller number of trades??
My idea of trading is finding a setup with a high probability of success and pounding it. Much easier to do than spread 100 lots across 10 pairs with 10 lots of each!
CJ
Yes definately, i used to open many trades across goodness knows how many pairs.
Nowadays i just find about 2 to 3 pairs with high probability and just leave them to run. This has greatly contributed to my success rate.
Also the fact that the SL is so low, it becomes very manageable and i will be able to increase my lot size
Would like to point out to all though, high probability doesnt come from just the pins and W and M, there are other factors to consider as well
Waiting for "only" the trades after a level 3 reset has taken place is the way to put all of this together. The best "M" and "W"'s usually occur there and the moves are the longest in length.
If you trade on the 15M and are looking to "day-trade", 50pips is the target. If you are
looking for the next move out of a level 3 reset, then the targets are 3xADR, with stops being moved up when a new level is reached and price moves away from that level, or a 20-30pip trailing stop.
mrelectron wrote:
Hi CJ.
Nice to see you back, the thread was getting like a deserted western town circa 1850 - saloon doors banging in the wind, tumbleweeds rolling down the dusty main street.
My question is about pivots (daily, weekly, monthly etc) ? What are your beliefs about pivots ? For example,
* Do you believe they are widely used by market makers?
* Do you pay attention to them yourself ?
* Anything else you can add would be good.
Thanks Mark
Hi Mark,
I take notice of the levels of the pivots. The pivots are areas of interest for both buyers and sell-ers. Only the market maker knows which way price will leave a pivot area and it will always leave in the direction of the most money for the market makers.
Pivots are like MA's, Fib lines and support/demand areas....they are used by the market maker to create areas of false support or demand. In order to make money, the marker maker needs trans-actions to take place in order to move price. I've never checked it but I could make a guess that more transactions take place near these areas of interest as more traders are involved.
Price will rise until there are no more buyers....price will fall until there are no more sellers...and the market maker, taking the opposite side, needs price to fall back or rise to a certain level to unload his contracts and book his profits. Once this is done, the cycle repeats....
This is where the 3 day and weekly cycles come from. The chop takes place when the direction is being reset, and new orders are being stacked....you will see a lot of chop around pivots for this reason.
The Asian session has a lot to do with "levels", pivots, MA's and S/D areas....this is how they are created. Price tends to move up or down during the US and London sessions, while it ranges during Asian session. This is also how levels or pivots are validated. Price will surpass these levels, create the pins and then validate the level by closing lower or higher...leaving the pin as evidence of what has occurred.
Take a look at a pivot system such as 10.4 Note how the price reacts to the perceived levels. No-tice also the formation of the pins, "W" or "M"'s that we look for. Understanding what is taking place can get you into a trade a level or 2 earlier than just the pivot system alone. Check how often levels are penetrated with a quick thrust above or below them, giving false indication of a break out.
When you start putting it all together, it starts to make sense CJ
Like I said, questions are being repeated....
Levels occur over DAYS...pushes occur during the day....
Example...price has risen for 3 days and forms a weekly peak HIGH, and forms an "M"....this is LEVEL 3 UP, which then becomes new LEVEL 1....next day comes 2 drops or pushes lower in price and a retrace, this creates LEVEL 2 down....price pushes lower, 3 more times next day, forms a "W"
and the LEVEL 3 low...This is the new peak LOW and the LEVEL resets to 1....
As for the "M" and "W"'s, there are 2 you are looking for...Peak high "M" and peak low "W"....when trading this way on a 15M TF....
If you only want to look for these patterns, do it on a higher time frame....how many do you see on this video and which way are the wicks or pins pointing? What does that tell YOU to do as far as taking or not taking a trade?
chosen.bless wrote:
hi captain i have been observing the charts and i notice that sometimes the 3 day levels reverse will take place over 4 or 5 days. one or two days in between not having higher or lower price action(no higher or lower push in some days. if you are 2 day levels up and no push on the 3rd day should i look for the 3rd level on the 4th or 5th.
Yes, 3-5 days, "normally 3"....
You should look for signs of reversal, if none appear....then look for further
rise....chop arrives at the 3rd level...may cover several days on the 3rd level, gather-ing new orders before next cycle begins...
CJ
mrelectron wrote:
man, you are a money making machine, you just have those pips on a string.
That's what it's all about.... making money on the trades... not about making "picture perfect" entry and exit trades that run for months...
I take what is given...
I don't worry about getting "all of it", just so I get some of it...I did get a few in the pins. Those trades require a lot of time in the seat at the pc to nail them.
Anymore, I'll take em early or late, just so I get part of it.
CJ