The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff by Captain Jack » Tue Mar 05, 2013 2:34 am
I'm going to start a thread here in hopes of providing some insight into trading without systems, indicators or EA's. Most of you have heard many people talking about trading price. Most of you probably are still wondering what the hell they are talking about when they
say....Trade price....WTF? This is how I trade and just possibly, the light might turn on for some people and they will begin to actually "see" price as it really is. I'm not going to get into candle-stick patterns as they are covered by many experts in the field. What I will be talking about is price action and price patterns - it's what you see on your screen when it's "naked", void of any-thing that clouds your view. Perhaps, if you follow along, you will understand better, why price moves the way it does. Price is "alive" in a manner of speaking. I treat it as a hunter would his prey. Learning it's habits, and it does have habits that repeat over and over, makes all the dif-ference between bringing home a trophy buck, putting meat on your table or going hungry anoth-er day.
When I look at all the systems, EA's, indicators and a the latest bells and whistles that people use to make their trades, I can't help but compare those people to "trappers". They are setting a trap....maybe the fox will show up and get caught, but more than likely, the sly little devil will backtrack on you and slink away. I'm not saying "trapping" is a bad method for hunting, I'm just saying all the conditions have to be right for the prey to get caught. This is why ALL EA's and systems work some of the time, but none them work all off the time. When the conditions are correct, the EA or system's trap will spring and you got a yourself another pelt. Sometimes, the trap is sprung but fails to catch the prey and sometimes, the trap never springs. Your success as a "trapper" depends on a mechanical trap, left to it's own means. Let's not forget that the fox is a cunning creature and he will learn your trapping ways. He learns to survive by adapting to your ways.Trappers who can't adapt to the changing ways of the fox, will not last long in the forex wilderness.
On the other hand, the hunter takes more of an active roll in "the hunt". He doesn't just set a box and come back and check it 4 days later. He spends days in the prey's habitat, learning all he can of his adversary. He actively tracks his prey, looking for sign along the way. Learning when and where it feeds, and what it eats and if the prey is large enough, finding the remains of a "trapper" or two along the way. Soon enough though, the hunter tracks the fox right into his den, where the fox lives and is most comfortable. Before it knows it, the fox is skinned and the hunter bags another trophy.
Price moves with direction "and" intent. Too many people try to trade direction only and have not a clue as to the intent of price. Price moves for a set, determined reason. Make no mistake here, price does not move on it's own. Price is driven or piloted by somebody or some thing. It is
driven with intent. The direction of price is the easy part, it's intent is something entirely different.
Most if not all of the orders placed by every member here and in all the bucket shops across the world, never see the forex market. They are handled in house, by your brokers. The bro-kers have some influence over price and what happens to your trades. ECN brobro-kers have the widest spread swings on the planet, blaming liquidity when a 60pip spike takes out your trade. . Staying with a fixed spread broker gives some protection from these guys but you pay a little more for each trade. In my trading, I use no stops for 99% of my trades. I trade by the seat of my pants and actively manage all of my trades If you are serious about trading these markets, sign up for trade rebates with one of the places on the net that offer them. I receive a 4 digit deposit each month from my provider as I make a great deal of trades across my accounts.
As the predator, I choose to take the fox in his den along with all his little babies. Learn some additional skill sets and your trading will improve greatly over time. Enter this thread with an open mind and leave all your "window clutter" and preconceived notions, ideas and be-liefs of the forex market on the doorstep. You're not in Kansas anymore, Toto.
If you were going to war, would you buy your guns and ammo from your enemy? Easy answer -NO! Unfortunately, in the forex wars, that's exactly what we have to do. The very terminals we use and the tools provided with them are given to us by the brokers, whose money we are trying to take. They set on the other side of the glass and they "see" everything we do. They know our habits and nature much better than we know theirs, or even our own. They know all the "tricks" in the book. They know all the tools we use and they use those very tools against us.
How many times has a level or pivot point been broken, or a MA line crossed, with an order being placed, only to see price reverse and head the other way? The fox knows where every level or line is better than we. Most of these "markers" are used to set buy or sell stops, and TP or SL levels.
A lot of people have heard of "stop hunts" but do they know what they are? Some people think it's a broker sniping their stops. It's not, although some brokers have been know to spike a spread to clear them in house. This type of activity has slowed from what it used to be. Has any-body heard of Steve Mauro? Pretty famous guy in forex who teaches high priced seminars of a subject called the Market Maker Method. Makes a lot of money doing so.
In the EURGBP chart, what you are seeing in the end of an extended move and the beginning of the next move. All of the letters on the chart indicate what happens in between, and yes,
there's a "stop hunt" there. The bulls and bears have no control of what has happened here and will happen time and time again, across all time frames. Price has been driven in many directions, to specific levels with intent. The rate of change in price is a factor in this process as well. It has been driven by that "some one or some thing", likely the Fox, to each point for reason. Trad-er mentality is the reason this process occurs ovTrad-er and ovTrad-er again. aftTrad-er all, tradTrad-ers are crea-tures of habit, set in their ways.
I'm going to take an early entry into the direction I "think" price will move. I fully expect every trade I enter to provide me with a profit. It doesn't always happen, but that's my mentality. When I see "pins" like these, many times I will take entry into a trade I'm considering. I've set a stop here, for visual purposes, just below the pins. Most of the time, I'll add 10-15 pips above or below the pin. If I'm right, I've just entered into a high R:R value trade. If I'm wrong, I've got a very small loss. The
"pins" are not the only rea-son for entry, but they are one of the "tracks" the fox leaves. Notice also that a bear pennant "appears" to be forming. This pennant forma-tion, gives me notice of a possible false move lower before a break higher. The fox lives on deception. Let's see what happens with it.
Welcome aboard, Pilgrim. Glad to see there is some interest in the area. I'm no expert on the subject and I'm not going to get all techie in terms here, just plain old simple language that we all can understand. If you want the opposite of what I'm going to do, look into Al Brooks series of books on price action. Deep stuff there.... We all should use the words and phrases here that we are comfortable with.
To answer your question, yes this is an area of consolidation. It's also a round number @ .8600 and it has been an area of interest in the past. Since time is constant and price is always moving when the markets are open, price will visit and re-visit areas over time. Some areas tend to draw price's attention more than others. If you notice, price reached .8600 at the end of the extended up move, at the end of January and here it is, 1st week in March and price is still @ .8600.
This area of "consolidation" could also be considered an area of "accumulation" or "distribution". It can be an area where a large position is offloaded, or another large position is established, or both. This area is the scene of a bloodbath as well.
A lot of "price action" has taken place yet price has remained at the same level. With price at the same level it was at the end of January, there are a lot of pissed off traders in the world because of it. Led like lambs to the slaughter. There's been a lot of trapping going on, but it's the bulls and the bears who've been caught in the traps, and the sly fox is smiling at all of them. Never get "married" to your trades or the trend. Successful trading isn't about making the picture perfect, Forex Factory trade, where you en-ter at the exact high or low and exit at the perfect point with max profit. Successful trading is about conserving your capital, keeping losses small (trade to trade another day), by exiting a bad trade, using capital and leverage to your advantage when you are in a good trade, and bottom line, making a profit. You don't have to hit 100% of a move to make a profit. All you need to be in part of it, traveling in the same direction with price, with the same intent. In other words....you need to start looking at price and thinking about it as if you were on the side of the computer screen where the picture of it is painted. Think like the fox and not the hound, or your account ends up in an empty hole, with the fox laughing at you as he slinks away with your chickens.
If the question ever comes to mind while in a profitable trade, "Should I exit here or wait?", exit and book your profit. Trade ended...move to the next trade. When I say trade ended, that's what I mean. DO NOT PISS ALL OVER YOURSELF IF YOU EXITED EARLY - YOU MADE A PROFIT - TRADE ENDED Understand there are two sides to the LCD, CRT or LED screens we all peer though. Do you ever wonder how the picture that appears on your screens, the one we stare at for hours on end, trying to find a clue as to what to do at any given time? Most people don't. They are too busy with everything that covers the surface of the screen, to see what lies below or beyond it. It's like being inside your house, looking out-side through a window, but not being able to see anything other than the items that are on the surface of the glass. It could be condensation, snapshots, a thermometer, pretty little stickies the kids have laid on...or just plain dirt. The effect it has on you, is to draw your attention and your focus away from what lies outside, beyond the surface of the glass. Sure, you can still see it, but it will be out of focus and un-clear, causing you to miss the details. There could also be a fox outside that window, happy to see all that stuff keeping you from seeing him, heading to the hen house.
Those candles on the screen just don't appear by magic. They are created by a process. it happens in plain sight, right in front of you. However, the sly fox would prefer to distract you, disorient you and change your point of focus. The more "toys" that cover the glass of your "window" to price, the more your focus is pulled away from the very thing it should be locked on. Remove the toys and you have price. Keep some open, naked charts and spend some time looking at these. I'm not advocating you to ditch everything you are doing now, but learn what's happening with price so you can use your "tools" better. It's the only way the light switch gets flipped on. And when it does, BAM! It will hit you like a sledgehammer. Once you "see", you cannot "un-see". An epiphany, if you will.
Love Texas Hold'em and used LvlII on NASDAQ when I day traded back in the good old days. Now forex catches my eye.
Sorry if I caught ya off guard with the price action wording. Like I say, Al Brooks and places like Your Trading Coach can do a great job on the specifics from a professional stand point. I'm a mix of psychology, patterns, habits, traits, ticks and tricks of price and a very differ-ent way of looking at the forex market and what makes price do what it does. It's really hard to explain, especially when I start showing you "price projections". Sometimes I feel like a modern day hunter, who uses a game camera to show him the foxes feeding time and location. Then all I have to do is show up on time.
I've been a member here for a long time. Just haven't been very active. Can't promise I'll be regular, but I'm here for the moment.
I'll be putting up a series of charts explaining what I see happening on the chart. In the mean time, chew on this one. Just an idea I have...
CJ
Here's some of my thoughts on the action from "A" through "C" on the EURGBP pair... BTW, .8755 is an area of interest for me here on this long trade....
erikskenne wrote: Thanks Commander
What I see first is the yellow line which is some kind of middle line from were prize stretch out from and snap back to, dealing range maybe, then I see that lines as former support becomes resistance are very important to pay attention to. Also wait to set yr order until after news release. Just my newbie 2cent
I didn't forget your post as I was saving it for later reply...delivered now.
Yes, the yellow line tends to stand out and grab your attention. I mentioned earlier that price is always moving, returning to previous levels and that it is drawn to some areas and levels more frequently than oth-ers. Round numbers, sweet spots, pivots, support & resistance, fibo and gann numboth-ers. Everything we use as tools of the trade as well as some I've missed. Areas that we seek out in our search for profits. Areas to begin and end trades. In other words, all of the areas that both bulls and bears frequent together. We've all heard it, "the bulls and bears are fighting it out here" yada yada... But in reality, it's not the bulls and the bears who control price, it's the fox or the shark or any number of larger predators who are also at-tracted to these "areas of interest" that price seems so drawn to. Remember also that I say price is driven to a point with intent.
My question to you is, do bulls and bears create these areas of interest with their tools of trade, or are these areas created by something else, to draw the bulls and bears together in a small area?
Hunters, who are predators, will sometimes use sound, corn, feed, meat, scent, dogs, other hunters, and numerous other methods to draw their prey to them. Sometimes, herding it into a smaller, confined area. Once the prey is within easy reach, it's an easy kill. Once trapped in a confined area, it's like shooting fish in a barrel.
Consider the question posed above again and think on this. Is price drawn to these "areas of interest" be-cause of some tool we use, or bebe-cause a numerical ratio says it is, or is price driven to these areas to trap bulls and bears into a feeding zone for the sharks, wolves, jackals and fox that "hunt" the same areas we do? Are the tools and indicators not the "bait" the fox uses to trap the bulls and bears? Trapping them in a confined area where confusion, pain and panic set it in?
Take a look at this chart. Notice the tick volume as this "event" unfolds.
In my opinion, the yellow line and all lines like it are the "bait" that draws the most number of traders, both bulls and bears, into a killing zone. Most will leave it with lighter accounts.
You can make a lot of money in these areas when you recognize the sign. This is a 4hr chart and time moves slow. Traders are not focused on the broad picture, but tend to have "tunnel vision". Their focus is tight and narrow. Also note the "pins" that appear at a lot of the turning point - the tracks of the fox. When these occur on the lower
time frames, scalpers get their asses handed to them do to the speed of the swings. Again, this is a "dirty" pattern with seeds of deception sown in. . They usually don't worry about covering it as much in the lower time frame but in the higher ones, you have more time to analyze it.
Something to keep an eye on over the upcoming days Mike.
All indicators are still lagging price and will always be behind. There is nothing that can pre-dict the future path of price. But if there was, it might look something like this....
CJ
Here's the USDCAD on both the 15M 30M time frames....same pattern as the 4H on USDCAD and
mjws00 wrote:
Slow day trading for me. Gonna see what BOJ and London can muster. So I dove head first into Al Brooks. Figured two heads up on it had to be worth something. His style ain't nearly as entertaining. Hope the day went well for all. I got my foxy glasses on for later. Mike
Al Brooks has price under a microscope....he knows his stuff and that's why I won't be tossing stuff like that out. I take a broader view and use fewer setups that work for me. "Railroad tracks" are the bomb for taking entry into a trade for me. When I see those and I'm looking for entry, I try to get it right in the "pins" at the top or bottom of the formation. The entry into the EURGBP trade was a bit late for me, as I was away when they formed, but got in real close. I have a SL of around 12 pips on that trade. When you are risking 2-3% per trade, a small stop loss allows you to enter with a much higher lot size. For example: 3% Risk SL of 15 pips, my lot size is 3.91
3% Risk SL of 100 pips, my lot size is .57
Since I trade the D1 and H4 time frames, I pull down some nice size moves. Lets say this trade rolls to TP1 and the take is 150 pips.
The 1st trade above brings me 39.1 x 150 = $5950.00 The 2nd trade above brings in 5.7 x 150 = $855.00
I risk the same amount on both trades @ 3% but look at the outcome. This is how you turn low value R:R trades into R:R trades of 10+ and higher.
I consider these trades "anchor" trades when I trade. as this trade progresses into profit, I will pyra-mid additional trades, as price progresses in its' journey. There are times when I see a "pause" or test approaching, I will l close the pyramid trades out, hold the anchor and begin pyramiding trades trades when price moves in desired direction. The folks from FXAW can tell you how effective this has been for me. I last linked a live account there, one from FXMC that started with a $4K deposit. After the account hit $32K, over about a month and a half period, I had generated over 40,000 green pips. I no longer link my live accounts but may start a small live account like that again for an exercise.
My theory is why make 30 trades over 30 pair when I can make 30 trades in one pair. Works for me and works well.
Those "railroad tracks" allow this type entry with a very high probability of success. Word of advice though, don't put a trade on like this anywhere near the time when spreads flare out. Your broker will take your SL with the widened spread and this is especially true for ECN brokers. Wait for news to pass or the day to change and spreads to settle then lay the trade out with confidence.
CJRe: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff by Captain Jack » Thu Mar 07, 2013 1:14 am
Here's chart with some examples of the "railroad tracks" and the "pins" formed at the top and bottom. If i can get entry in the pins, I'll set a SL of 10-20 pips above or below the high or low of the pin. If I'm a little late on entry, I'll set SL at the the pin level. This is one of the few times I set the stop.
If you look back in the chart history, you probably find many "areas of interest' in the past that relate to these reversal areas. Remember, the fox like to pull the bulls and bears together so he looks for com-mon ground.
Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
by Captain Jack » Thu Mar 07, 2013 1:14 am
Here's chart with some examples of the "railroad tracks" and the "pins"
formed at the top and bottom. If i can get entry in the pins, I'll set a SL of
10-20 pips above or below the high or low of the pin. If I'm a little late on
en-try, I'll set SL at the the pin level. This is one of the few times I set the stop.
If you look back in the chart history, you probably find many "areas of
inter-est' in the past that relate to these reversal areas. Remember, the fox like to
pull the bulls and bears together so he looks for common ground.
f451 wrote: Hi Captain!
Reading the thread is provoking a few thoughts...
Signs on the chart - pin bars, double bars (key reversals), especially if they're poking out beyond some obvious support or resistance level... or price moves that induce retail traders looking at standard sets of indicators to yell - yippee - breakout trade - or yippee moving average crossover trade, or....
(the contrast between how those smart money foxes see the market and how the retail traders with the asian range breakout and moving average crossovers templates often is enough to induce just enough vol-ume to sell when then the foxes want to buy... I've definitely heard experienced bank traders talk about need to push price up or down past certain level to attract enough liquidity to dump or establish a posi-tion...)
trouble for me is I've never really been able to apply these ideas to actual trading... so keen to be here, CJ, and to see if I can learn to see the deeper levels of the markets!
Let's see what I can do here. I once read something that I think came from Steve Mauro, that said it takes 10,000 full lots to move price one pip. That's a lot of trades to make minimal price impact. For the most part, none of us will be doing this or have to worry about who takes the other side of the trade we put on. This is another reason why people say EA's and systems quit working after so many people start using them are full of beans. If the above statement is true, and I don't know if it is, it would take 1,000,000 traders placing .01 trades in the same direction, at the same time to move price 1 pip. 100,000 traders placing .1 trades or 10,000 traders placing full size lot trades. This only moves price 1 pip. EA's and systems quit working because the conditions they are programed for are not taking place. Period. It's the trap that's set that will only trip when those conditions are met. The falsehood that the market mak-ers change the way they trade is another part of trader paranoia. That's how the rationalize it and that's what they believe.
Consider this - what is price? Price is nothing more than a reflection of the number of transactions put forth and the price paid or these transactions. You can see this so easy on the charts I've posted with tick volume on them. The largest price swings are usually during the highest volume of price ticks, reflect-ing increased transactions. This is why the fox wants both bulls and bears present. It creates more trans-actions and the fox can move price with his intent.
You can take all the retail traders in the world and the orders they place are sucked up by the market. Some are offset, against other traders, with the broker taking the chop, some are offset by the broker's in house traders, some are passed through where they are but a spec, offset by large institutions. Look at the numbers above. It takes and enormous number of "transactions" to move price. Hedge funds, bankers, large institutions, and perhaps some whales and sharks have that ability. We do not.
The bulk of retail traders orders are to large institutions. It is the large institutions that direct price and it to their intent it moves. Our goal is to trade with the fox, not against. This is why it is so important to understand why price is moving as it does instead of just looking at the cross of price and a line. When we trade the cross of the line, we trade against the fox. He is the one who created the cross. When you un-derstand this, then you begin to travel with the fox. One way to learn this is by learning the habits and the patterns of the fox. This is what I try to put forth here. Pattern recognition and what it means. The tracks of the fox.
Price is not random. Price is moved deliberately, and is manipulated by logical decisions. It is the fox who makes these decisions and we, as retail traders react to their decisions. Let me say that again, we react to their decisions. The conditions we trade in are created and presented to us and we react to them. Most times, we react emotionally and not rationally. This emotion is what the fox preys on. Most traders are on the edge of their seats when trading. Trading should be stress free and devoid of emotion. I'm so devoid
of emotion any more, I find my self waking up with my laptop on my lap and drool dripping down my chin, or that could be old age creeping up. Trading to me is mechanical process anymore, boring at times. This is why the fox drags the bulls and bears together, punishes their emotions and creates transactions to manipulate price. When you hear that the bulls and bears are fighting it out now, you'll know it's the fox behind it all.
This is how a large institution offloads or builds a position. By drawing as many traders to common ground and then manipulating them to make as many transactions as possible, so that the institution can drive or push price to their intent. Again, look at the chart with tick volume of it and take not of the price swings and volume. There are large transactions taking place and price is moving a great deal, caus-ing a lot of emotional distress. There is also a large number of price ticks and price in NOT MOVING. This is the institution accumulating for the next phase.
You may not have been able to apply this to your trading because you are on the wrong side of the glass. You think and reason and rely on what's been put forth to you, up to this point. Perhaps you might be able see things in a different light now and just maybe make changes to your trading accordingly. Any questions, refer back to your post where the traders "yell yippee!" John
Jason wrote: When you see the railroad tracks, it has already happened. How do you enter near the top and risk only 15 pips? Is it by looking for railroad tracks on the m15?
I've spent enough time in the charts that it's almost automatic for me. You can always drop down and check the lower time frames if it helps you. There are repetitive patterns in the lower time frames that occur when the tracks form. You will see the track pattern on all time frames. On a 4H chart, the first pin bar forms.... while watching the 2nd 4H candle, as soon as I see a pin, and I'm looking for a trade entry, I place the trade. Pins form fairly quickly since it's a reversal, price pull back from the extreme to stick the stops that were probably
triggered there. A pin high, on top usu-ally triggers buy stops and when price pulls back, those who hold those trades are stuck. When it pins low, or the bot-tom of a candle, its usually trigger sell stops and stick the shorts.
Nobody can tell you when to do it. You have to spend time watching them form and practice trading it on a demo ac-count. Once they form, price very sel-dom breaches them and you are in a high value R:R trade.
When trading these on the D1 you have a lot of time to consider the trade. Here's a past example of an old live trade I posted on another site. The anchor trade is in the pins and the pyr-amid trades are below. The SL for the anchor trade was the top of the red box around the pins.
Jason wrote:
When you see the railroad tracks, it has already happened. How do you enter near the top and risk only 15 pips? Is it by looking for railroad tracks on the m15?
Here ya go Jason - this would be a counter trend scalp on the H4...entry right in the pins with SL set right on top of the high pin. You can see my entry and SL at the bottom set of pins. Live setup!
CJ
garyfritz wrote: Jason wrote:
When you see the railroad tracks, it has already happened. How do you enter near the top and risk only 15 pips? Is it by looking for railroad tracks on the m15?
That's what I wondered too! By the time you see the RRtrax, the opportunity to enter "in the pins" is long gone. If you enter up "in the pins" of the first bar, it could just as easily keep moving in that direction and never FORM the RRtrax.
f451 wrote:
Here's where it gets interesting - if you have buy or sell a LOT.... how exactly to do you that with-out pushing the price against your trades? This is where the foxes and the stop hunts come back in to the picture... you have to induce someone else to take the other side of your position, so you need to make it look like taking that other side is an attractive deal... say when price pushes down below an established support, or the low of the day - just long enough to induce enough traders to sell - where you as the fox with the big position to establish are busy buy, buy buying, in full knowl-edge that price is gonna be coming back up once those desperate retail sellers are exhausted. I understand the idea behind this, but I never understood how you could do it. So you push the price down to induce people to sell -- well pushing the price down there TAKES a lot of selling. So you have to get pretty short in order to push the price to where you want to buy. Then I would ex-pect buying would push it UP just as fast as the selling pushed it down, so at the end don't you end up buying back the shorts you used to push it down, you're about flat, and the price ends up back where you started?
Take a look at this chart Gary, this is how they form...it's a counter trend scalp on the H4 time frame. The thing about this is that when price is pushed to a point, enticing people in, they get stuck with the trade when price turns quickly and goes against them They will not close for a small loss and as price moves away, their loss increases. Same when it reaches the other end. What ends up happening is a group of trades in locked into a position. Price will not go above the longs nor go below the shorts. neither can get out without a loss. There will be a period of accumulation, where price stays in a small range, but not exceeding the previ-ous high. This is the Asian session, when the high and low of the day are established. There will be a point where the spread between the high and low widens. A lot of people set these new H and L's as the Asian breakout. After this, the market maker will begin the stop hunt, price moves a lot more and quicker, by now, all the earlier buyers and sellers are out, most with losses. Price will move high and trigger buy stops, locking people into positions, quickly reverse to new lows, forcing the buyers hand to dump or enter DD and trigger-ing sell stops....price will retreat again locktrigger-ing the new shorts in as price runs away from them.... price will not go above or below the points the stops were
tak-en. This is the stop hunt. Price tends to form a wedge or triangle as it whips back and forth, each time, staying between the H and L's, but not breeching the. Longs and shorts are either stuck or out, while the institution accumulates it's position.
Take a look at the chart. John
I enter trades with confidence that I will profit from that trade. I fully expect to win every trade I place. If I felt differently, I wouldn't place the trade.
If you only scan the higher time frames, look for the "railroad track" pattern to form...it starts with one long candle and a pin on top or bottom. You have hours in the next candle to make a decision about the trade. Watch it happen. This is the first thing I look for when seeking turning points. It's all I need.
The chest is open, it's hp to you to take the treasure my friend. CJ
garyfritz wrote: Captain Jack wrote:
Take a look at this chart Gary, this is how they form...it's a counter trend scalp on the H4 time frame.
What about the places I circled in red? The pins formed there, and price didn't reverse. (OK on the first one it reversed a little for one candle, but it didn't reverse like your examples. Would you have entered there? Would you have tightened up stops and gotten out early when it didn't work like you expected?)
It seems to me that you must already KNOW **where** you expect it to reverse. Then you use the pins as a confirmation that "yes, it's going to reverse NOW." The pins by themselves aren't a reliable indicator.
So how do you know **where** to look for them?
Good questions Gary. You have to remember in this situation, I "know" what the whole move, from one end to the other is. When I look for the pins, I look for major turning points. It's why I look at every chart on my brokers platform. They don't come along every 30 minutes. I look for some-thing that will provide a nice move, say 100-200 pips or more. That's why at FXAW, I always looked for the signals with the highest pip values. I'm not really interested in scalping the smaller inter trend or counter trend moves, but will take the larger retraces on the major moves. Each of those areas you circled could provide a scalper a profit. Options if you take something like that is to move your SL to BE+2 as soon as you are in profit. Look at the D1 time frame...you will see some nice trades across the board on setups like those.
You can drop to the 15M, 1H or any other time frame and see them as well if you like those peri-ods.
Where do you look for them? Look on one of your 10.4 templates. They are full of them. Most would put you into a 10.4 trade a full level or more before you would normally enter. By taking the smaller SL at the pin level, instead of the MA240, your entry lot would be much larger for the same risk. You made a picture perfect trade there, look at that trade again. The pins will form at the major turning points. Use whatever tool you want to help you locate them. I don't post this in Bob's thread as he teaches his method and I don't want to impose a different set of rules, to con-fuse people. I've done this enough, I just trust the pins. FXAW is filled with my charts showing the 1st trade in the pins. Even if you are a bit late, you can still take entry lower in the candle and still use the pin extremes for SL. Your risk remains the same, but your R:R value will be a bit low-er. When you look at the 10.4 temp, remember the pins are designed to trip buy or sell stops. Check where they appear on the pivot levels we all use.
Fire a demo account up and toss trades up when you see them...watch the magic!
Oh, one more point on the red circles...the longer the 1st candle that pins, the better the chance of getting profit on the second if you are scalping. Not worth it on the shorter candles, unless it happens at major area of interest.
USDCHF is "pinning" on the D1, in a major area of interest. I would have liked to have seen a tall-er pin on the first candle and I'm going to hold my stop until the 2nd candle takes form. It is very possible here, that the 2nd will pin higher, and if it does, I will take a 2nd entry there, and then use the high of the 2nd pin for the SL. Early and plenty of time.... In this situation, I'll use the past major high as a mental stop.
CJ
You running a trade sim or something....lol
Here's a current pic.... actually 2 of them. 4H and the same info com-pressed to the weekly chart....
Could be pinning....
CJ
Looks like a 3 push high....sell it here as it's pinning CJ
spotdespot wrote:
Does this the kind of thing you are looking for CJ? D1 early potential railroad at an area of interest with H4 confirm-ing?
Cheers, Dave.
Yeah...that's what I would be looking for. Pay attention to how the pins form on top and bottom. Some pairs have their own quirks, which pin tends to be the long, which is the short, are they even....things like that. I think you will see differences across the pairs. Some pairs with high spread have crappy pins. You can always look at the chart on different time frames, longer com-presses the data, shorter expands it. Sometimes what you don't see on 1 time frame, will show on a different one.
Note the time of day.… John
It happens at different times on each time frame. Look at the lower time frames and 2-D1 candles hold 96-15M candles....look at the action on the H1, H4...the patterns are the same across all time frames and the lower one may give you a clue as to where you are in the pattern. CJ
Gertje wrote:
When to close your 'anchor-trade'?
Reversed RR-track? Where do you add trades? Specific distance between? [Mid]Pivots like 10.4?
I have no hard rules Gertje....it depends on each trade, how much profit is involved, what type of retrace is coming up, location in a pattern....lots of different variables. Sometimes I go the dis-tance with them like this EURNZD trade...
Adding trades are the same. Sometimes I will close a trade in profit and enter a new one at the current price if I'm
building equity or short on margin. I will post some old charts of live trades I have taken as I used to post a lot of them as I made them.
You could adapt this to the 10.4 system and the pins would work well there, giving you early entry instead
waiting a level or so. With a larger entry order at
the same risk, using a smaller SL, your 1st level trade R:R ratios will sky rocket. Many trades only go one level or so and this can make a big difference in profit attained.
The patterns remain the
same across all time
frames...EURGBP M1
Not good idea to enter trades in the gap between NY and Asian session or during the Asian ses-sion. They use the Asian session to establish the new High and Low of the day - HOD/LOD... Price is kept in a narrow range, 25-50 pips most of the time. It varies with each pair. Spreads widen and if you enter a trade here, you already stuck. Towards the end of the session, price will move 25-50 pips above or below the HOD/LOD during the stop hunt. This stop hunt forms cer-tain patterns, like "M" an "W"'s or "Railroad tracks" - RRT. RRT's are actually compressed "M" and "W" candle patterns and
should be entered on the 2nd leg or second candle of the RRT. That's why I lifted my stop as the HOD hasn't been estab-lished yet.
Best thing to do is watch price on the 15M time frame...like what's happening on EURGBP now.... heating up a bit....
If you can, demo trade the EURGBP on the 5M time frame over the next few hours...watch what they do and how you trade based on their actions....good practice cause you're gonna see these moves across all time frames. CJ
My bad on the early entry but I did say the 2nd D1 bar would pin higher during the stop hunt...
Lesson's being given on the 5M EURGBP right now...worth a
watch...learn it and you can scalp hell here! LOL
CJ
EURJPY just broke lower...watch it on the
5M for a lesson! CJ
eltax100 wrote: Hi Mike 3 legs?
Looks like this. Though a bit muddled here. 3 legs happens a lot. Often they are pretty. But there is a chance the fox is starting to hit the brakes throw up a Pin or an M and start hunting bulls.
Not elliot based, just straight up manipulation by market makers. Mike
pips400 wrote:
I post again in danger of being a nuisance, but please be patient with me, the questions I'm raising aren't because I want to be difficult but 1) because others may be thinking the same as I am and 2) I really do want to learn what's being taught here. So on that disclaimer my next question is about Railroad Tracks. I know what they are in the normal meaning of the word, basically an opposite and roughly similar pair of candles next to each other. But what I find difficult is for a RRT to be identified as the second candle is forming. Surely it can't be a RRT until after the candle close? What would be really helpful is a bit more of a breakdown on this aspect as it seems central to the whole strategy. Thanks to CJ and Mike for your ef-forts on this.
There's no problem with 1 or a hundred questions...they are never a nuisance.
RRT's and delayed RRT's are nothing more than an "M" or "W" formation on a lower time frame. If you trade the 4H time frame, look at past RRT formations on the 4H chart, then drop down a level or 2 in time frames and look at what the RRT candle pattern contains. The pin area will always form first because this is where the fox wants to stick the order holders. In the pin, going the wrong way.
The 2nd candle forms when the 2nd leg of the "M" or "W" pattern forms on the lower time frame. This is where you get the clue to enter. At the extreme of the 2nd leg.
More later.… CJ
Some things never go out of style! CJ
Jason wrote:
I actually made pips on 4/5 EUR pairs, but I didn't have a SL. If we just traded RRTs, is it pos-sible to be highly profitable without an initial SL? Won't the price always reverse at certain points (although it may go further like the EURJPY before the NFP)?
Yes, BUT depends on your discipline, account size, trading habits, emotional state, greed level, fear level, pain level and
your "Plan B"....
You should research "M" and "W" patterns so you understand what comprises a RRT or delayed RRT (DR-RT), and the methods to trade them.
Nice going on the trades. CJ
eltax100 wrote: Hi Mike 3 legs?
Did you see the "M" and "W"'s? This is a H4 chart....look at it on a D1 or weekly
I'm loving this! Like that song you can't get out of your head...
If it goes down like this, an "M" will form if they didn't trap enough longs....
If they got what they wanted at the top, the the "W" brings them down....where they will collect shorts at the bottom and run another leg up....
I can see this walking down the line to the 112.50 -113.50 area, then a run to higher highs...140's at some time maybe....months away or years maybe for those 140's
mjws00 wrote: EURJPY has played out a little more. Here is a pretty picture.
This is a good example of the beginning of a "stop hunt".
The 1st box represents the Asian session and the is when the HOD/LOD is reset. The intent of price here is to drift in a small range, trapping traders. Price spread will begin to widen and possibly trigger breakout stops. Note the "bump" in price at the end of the previous NY session. This is designed to trick people into adding to trades, going with current sentiment (LONG). Price is dropped, trapping those traders.
As the Asian session ends, price begins to move with "false intent", usually in the direction with largest sentiment - trend biased traders. Once price has moved 25-50 pips beyond the Asian range, the "stop hunt" begins where both bulls and bears are slaughtered. At the end of the "stop hunt", price will move with intent, in the "true trend" direction, at the direction of the fox.
I use the term "fox" because it is an animal of intelligence and cunning. It is not the bulls, the bears or even your brokers who create these manipulated price moves. They are the work of the "market maker" or "dealer", who work for the banks. It is their job to take money from your pockets. This industry has no regulation, If this type of activity occurred in Las Vegas, Wall Street or Nasdaq, they would go to prison\ for doing it. Any person who does not recognize these facts is a fool soon to be parted from their money. Your task is not to profit by trading as you know it, it is to learn their methods and piggy back their trades. Only by trading in the direction of price, with the intent of the fox will you make consistent and substantial gains.
You learn by watching these professionals ply their trade, you watch their actions, their every move. You do not watch all the things that cover their tracks, that is what then want you to do.
If you are dedicated enough to learn these ways, you will be able to trade larger lot sizes, with confidence and make more in profit
from a 20 pip move than a 300 pip move. Your goal is to make money, not pips. I can generate as much money from 50 pips as 20,000 pips. I have done it to prove the fact. By being selective and taking these types of trades, your accura-cy will skyrocket. Using these methods, I have scalped 127 winners from 132
trades, in a live, verified account. I have taken 237 winning trades out of 266, on medium duration time spans on another live account. Do I take large risks in doing so? Some people think so but they compare what I do to their trading style. This is my style and my risk of ruin is almost non existent.
Can you trade like me and achieve the same results - no. Don't even try it. Can I teach you to trade like me - no again. You are not me. What you can do is apply what I do to your trading and improve on your methods. Make sure you trade with the fox. Place your trades with him and not against him. He always wins. CJ
mjws00 wrote:
LOL. I'll just sit in the corner with green tea and charts. And a wall full of monitors for those foxy bastards to stare at me through. Thanks for the laugh.
In time I hope to fall asleep, drooling on my laptop. Right now I just want to snap on the scope and kill these critters. I gotta say I'm not really sure I love the aggression this brings out. I'm mel-low, but watching these sly suckers kill everything that moves... jacks me right up. Seriously stu-pid perma-grin. Just need my balls to drop now so I can trade like the king.
Mike
Stir up some old emotions Mike? Especially now that you know what's been going on all this time? Your hate will turn to love as you see the move coming and add your order to theirs, knowing there is nothing they can do about it.
When you do start tagging along, understand that you will never get in at the top or bottom of one of those price spikes. When they spike price they also widen the bid ask spread. A spike high will trigger sell stops, but not TP targets or SL. A spike low will trigger buy stops, but not TP or SL stops. get the point? You never see your order at the top of those spikes. During the EURGBP stop hunt, I'm trading for 2-7 pips while the spread is eating 5 at times. If the spreads were not manipulated as they were, my "demo" account would be up over 500% instead if 350%. Part of the game though and nothing more than the cost of doing business with them.
John
Stop hunting is just part of it. It's how they build a position, exit a position, get traders out of their positions and change direction at times.
Price is always moving, up and down. It has to for them to take profits. Price must step back to go forward as well as step forward to go back. Getting a heads on when they change the trend, and they can change it at anytime is key to improving trading as well. The candle patterns help to identify these tracks when they leave them. They can try to hide them with deception, but they can't eliminate them. They are right in front of us but it's up to us to "see" them. Most people don't because they are looking elsewhere.
Seeing this? CJ
I really like Snagit for the screen caps and editing. So easy to use, works for me! Here's a roof top for ya!
I'm not familiar with WMD's work, you are welcome to discuss his ideas here if he gives differ-ent reasoning than I do. I'd actually like to hear it.
The concepts I bring forth require you to toss a lot of what you know about forex out the win-dow, or more so, what you have been told about forex. To grasp what I am saying, you need an open mind. You need to be able to accept something that goes against the masses, perhaps against logical reasoning.
I read that you put a lot of faith in trend lines. They seem to work well. You are supposed to rely on trend lines, S&D areas and a lot of other things. You KNOW price is drawn to these areas. Where we differ is that I know that price is not drawn to them, but that a market maker drives price to certain points, to create trend lines where large numbers of traders will gather. Where price interacts with a trend line could be considered a point where the market makers make a lot of money
Market makers. One for each session, per time zone, per bank. There are "dealers" at various lev-els below them but the central banks guide price. Let the speculators get out of hand and you will see a crushing intervention. They interact with each other. They know where every line is because they are the one who create the points that comprise the lines. They are the artist that paints everything you see on your price screen. But most important of all, they are the candle makers. A trend line to me is one of the lesser evils. They are visual aids and I will throw one on a chart now and then for reference when plotting price. No matter how easy it looks using trend lines, many traders get butchered at the points that create them. That's why price returns.
Those trend lines are also indicating a "range" area. This range area is the same you see in the Asian session each day. Price has been consolidating in this range for months. What you have just seen, this past week, is the widening of this range, on the 4H charts. You are seeing the resetting of the 4H high and 4H lows the same as you would the resetting of the intra day high and lows. This process will takes weeks, maybe a month or two. There will be a break above or below this new range and a massive stop hunt will take place, out of which a new trend will emerge. This is where I expect the lows to be near 112-113.00 areas. Crazy stuff huh?
If you thinks it's crazy, compare the price forecast chart for EURGBP that I posted last week. Look at the shape of the pattern I posted, compare it to the shape of the move that just oc-curred. Look at the low point on the last "W" that printed on Friday and compare it to the fore-cast chart. Crazy stuff, but we all know price can't be predicted don't we.
Lines and indicators tell us where price has been, but if you listen, price will tell you where it's going.
BritShrtHair wrote:
CJ, what to say about USDCHF Daily?
There has been a pin over the last resistance.
I'm tempted to go short with SL above that last pin. Or is there something that tells you to hold on? (I'm also thinking: isn't this too obvious ?) Thank you!
My feeling is that if you go short here, you've taken the bait. Your SL at pin high will be taken during the stop hunt, if not before. A 2nd H4 candle will print and it will probably pin higher. Shorts and longs are trapped now, as they always are at the end of the day, week, month, etc. When the market opens, there will be a gap, taking out stops before those trapped even have a chance to do anything.
During the Asian session, price will drift up and down in a narrow range, resetting the initial HOD/LOD. Near the London open, price will exceed the range, both higher and lower. This is the clue that the stop hunt is about to start. Price will begin to move a lot, both ways, enticing traders into incorrect positions, stops will be taken out and positions closed at losses. Once this process completes, the next move takes place. I look for price to end lower going into NY session or reverse lower during the NY session. This is based on the 15M chart. What takes place on the lower time frame will also take place on the higher, but over a longer period of time, so the 15M move will give clue to the longer, more drawn out 4H move to come. So if you are looking to short, wait for a higher price.
Just an old man's opinion so don't bet the house on it. CJ
Hi CJ,
What do the M's and W's tell you?
"M" and "W"'s are the expanded view of a RRT formation. When you see a RRT formation of a higher time frame, drop to a lower and you will see the "M" or "W" formation on the lower time frame. They are reversal patterns and can be traded profitably.
Entry points are taken on the 2nd leg of each. When looking at these on the charts, they tend to flow from "M" into "W" or "W" into "M", it's how the work the trends and extract their profits. Straight line moves, which occur give little time for profit taking. The "M" and "W" patterns are the pull backs and re-traces in the market. "W" indicates a rise in price, "M" indi-cates a drop in price.
pips400 wrote:
Hi CJ and Mike, we're looking at the EURJPY pair for a BARF entry, I just have a couple of questions. I'm also running with Bob's 10.4 system here so this would be counter trend, (which I have no problem with in the right setup). My questions are regarding stop loss and entries. The attached pic shows two possible places for SL, which one (if any) would you take, either 1 at the previous swing high, or 2 at the most recent, and secondly, with the 10.4 system we would wait for entry at the WP, but it would be a much higher RR if entry was taken sooner. So if entering sooner, what would be your signal to do so?
Many thanks, Pips400
The attachment barf-eurjpy.jpg is no longer available
The early entry here is according to the Railroad track pattern at the highest high. It is the reversal signal. When entry is taken there, set SL 10-15 pips above the HH.
BARF has set rules for entry per this chart. If you look at a longer time frame, D1, you will see that there is a larger BARF pattern there, which would have provided hundreds of pips in re-turn. Price is currently back at the original entry point of the D1 BARF, confluence with the H4 BARF.
Usually after 2 days movement in the same direction, there is a 3rd day of consolidation or chop which leads to the next move.
CJ
nanningbob wrote:
Thought I would have some fun with this. My pure naked screen price action only nothing else. You can see things if you get the clutter out.
As you look at the patterns and candle formations of the chart, switch to the other time frames, both higher and lower and notice information that appears on the other time frames. Two D1 candles, which form the RRT pattern, hold 48 - H1 candles. Smaller time frames bring more detail, but also more noise. Larger time frames smooth the noise but become less de-tailed.
The patterns you see of the lower time frame will appear on the hgher time frame and the can-dles are formed. The lower time frame cancan-dles "build" the higher time frame cancan-dles.
CJ
mjws00 wrote:
CJ, you should brag about how you hit the subtle gbpusd short coming out of asia, flipped it at the bottom and then rode it back to consolidation here. Too subtle for this baby fox, I
thought they'd rattle the cages harder. But I'm hoping we'll see it later in the weekly cycle. Thanks for popping your head up around here. There is a quantum leap available for those that can grasp this. Seriously guys. READ this guys stuff and look at the pictures 1000 times if you have to. Then go run a year or more of charts per pair. Pure gold is an understatement.
Mike
You learn to take what you are given and not push it when there isn't anywhere to push it to. When they open the door to a run, I'll stack order after order and pin them right to the fox's ass. The faster he runs, the farther he carries my orders. Like I said, you can make as much from a 5 pip trades as a 50 pip trade or a 500 pip trade. It's how you put it on and what you expect from the trade.
You can't get married to a trade nor a set trading style, at least I can't. The fox changes it up and I'm learning to do it better every day. It's having the confidence to put the trade on and expecting to profit from every single one that helps. If I don't, I move to the next, where I will.
YEN pairs are picking up a bit.... CJ
nanningbob wrote:
Now look at those pin bars and see what they did. Interesting. Hope I am catching on. If I am getting this right I see a 2nd visit to an area is a nice place to go with it.
One thing I want to be sure that everybody understands about these pins. Most times, when they print, they are the result of spread widening. They increase the distance between the bid and ask by 5-8 pips or more. The effect of this is to trip stop loss and buy or sell stops, putting people into bad trades, or causing a loss. When they do this, your TP or SL orders will not be hit as a result of the wide spread. This is important here because so many people use pending orders and stop loss or trailing orders.
This is the same thing that happens at the end of the day. If you want to see it in action, load up a broker who is offering an ECN feed, open an order box near right before 5PM est and watch the bid ask price as the day ends. These are the market makers hitting the stops. I have seen 60 pip spreads when they do this.
Since I place and manage all of my orders, I use market order for entry and exit and very seldom set a stop. I actively manage my trades and do not give them a chance to take an order from me or put me into an order going the wrong way.
CJ
You're right Bob. The only competition we face is from those who seek to liberate us from our hard earned money. I'm not talking just about the brokers, dealers and the lot of them. This market is filled with people who can't trade themselves, but will toss out one system and EA af-ter another, prying the money from our hands, to satisfy their own greed.
There is no "perfect" system, EA or manual way to trade. We all need to find what works for us, on an individual basis. That is where the sharing of ideas and info plays a big role. We can take ideas and concepts from each other, apply it to our own trading methods and style and hopefully improve them as we go.
I've already stated that nobody can trade as I do. There is so much that goes through my mind when considering a trade, it would be impossible to put the process to paper. To say, "this is what you need to do, and only this will work for you" is out of the question. But to say, "hey, take a look at this and see how you can use and apply it to your system" may make a huge difference in a traders development.
When we take profit from the market, it is such a small piece that it amounts to nothing. A drop in the ocean compared to the size of the market. There is plenty of profit for all in this busi-ness. We just need to learn to take it out and not provide it to others.
Set realistic goals and use the power of compounding to build your account. Trade within your means so you can trade another day if today did not go your way. Not all of them go my way nor will they yours. There is always another trade to be taken right after the one that just finished and they can be placed at any time of the day.
I have a feeling Bob, that your CT skills are going to improve in a short time. I'm all about swing trading. Read the sign of the fox and you'll be swinging soon!
Spread widening at close today. This is how they hit stops in those pins and why some of your or-ders never close or seem to close before you intend them to. Tricks, tricks and more tricks....
CJ
Aus67 wrote: CJ
When looking for trade setups, do you usually start in the bigger time frames? ie Weekly, Daily? and then move down to smaller to look for entry into those larger patterns?
I can see the stop hunts, M's W's, traps, etc...but am still thinking 'where do I get in on this??' I am guessing it is fine to stick with a 15m chart and trade that, but keep an eye on the bigger for any traps that you may be walking into?
I feel this is an ambiguous question and a little imbisilic as well...but just want to get my methodol-ogy sorted.
I guess being in Australia doesn't help as i would have be nocturnal to be able to trade NewYork... like most trading, it takes place in the wee hours. Cheers Daryl
I look across all time frames. In the past, I stayed mostly with H4 and D1 trades, of long dura-tion. Lately, I've find I take trades of much shorter duration, with larger lot sizes. My market exposure time is reduced and I take profits off the table sooner.
It all depends on what and how you want to trade. Long term trades like D1 and above, medium term trades, day trades, swing trades, or scalps. You take the trades where they give them to you. The smaller time frame trades end sooner. When you see an "M" or "W" on the 15M, it's probably a RRT pattern on the 1H or 4H. Same on the higher. When you see RRT of D1, it's an "M" or "W" on the 1H or 4H. They are the same and thy all present reversal trades, each way.
If you have little time to manage trades, take them on the D1. Trade them to the next RRT and swing it back the other way. This type trade is usually smaller lot size to deal with retrace draw down issues. When I traded D1, I would ride the trend to a reversal on the H1 or H4 then swing it that way, back and forth. You don't need to trade 28 pair to get 28 trades.
Things happen faster on the lower time frame. Things happen the same way on the higher time frames, only slower.
It all depends on you.
London hits us at 3am so you will find me up at night as well and if the hunting is good, sometimes for days!
f451 wrote:
Saw this comment over on the NB 10.4 thread and a lightbulb went phzzzing! in head.
"Those are "buyers" but not the type you think. They bought the story that price was going to drop further and entered SHORT orders. Those SHORTS were stuck there or closed out by now. If there is a change in trend direction planed, you will see wicks like these on the next few daily candles, each presenting a higher low than the last. They will almost be following the yel-low line you drew on the chart. This is called "trapping volume" and it sticks a bunch of SHORT orders at the bottom before a rise in price. You can watch to see if this develops and it offers numerous trades on the D1.
Never really knew what to make of those grindy up or down trends with long wicks. Now i do. "Trapping volume" and forcing the weak holders out at their stops to fuel the move in the direc-tion the foxes want to go! The HH LH or LL, HL are still the key to the direcdirec-tion, but the wicks show you lots of aborted attempts to go the other way... and just who is benefiting...
Another way to look at is that those "SHORTS" reached the end of their rope!
They also do it to validate the S/R and fibo levels, pivots and mid points. It gives the illusion of support there at that level, when actually there is no support. It wasn't buyers who brought price up, it was the fox and he validated the level and left "false support" in his wake.
CJ
mjws00 wrote:
Took that quickie out of EJ. Junior Foxy glasses were fine. Looking for another entry when Lon-don shows its hand. Didn't feel like letting profit ride. My trigger finger works nicely should it break down. 50+40... got a nice tight add, tiny stop. Junior fox is happy. On to the next one. She made a much larger prettier M, but I took the first one off the pin.
Nothing wrong with booking the green pips, that's how they
stay green. This one may drop straight away...CJ
GBPUSD
Levels and "pushes"
What I saw to make me want to put a trade on here....
erikskenne wrote: Hi CJ
Does this qualified me as a minor fox, not with out help of course,
Been out for a bit...just got back. I was getting worried on the Yen crosses for a bit as it looked like the previous high was going to be taken. As long as the previous high holds, your trade is good as are a lot of mine.
They "spread" a pin up above the old pin high, but this does not invalidate the trade. What is important here is how long they held the level at the high and didn't pass it. This "normally" indicates buying the dip and going long....it's "dipping" now....but a dip and rise could lead to a nice reverse and drop into the NY session. A new high invalidates this trade and we should exit.
CJ
elvis wrote:
CJ, how do you know what the "true direction" will be?
The true direction is the one the fox takes price after a
con-solidation and stop hunt. Normally, you wait for it to show.
CJ
pips400 wrote:
Okay time for the opticians, and have my vision checked. CJ asks "What do you see?" Here is my answer:
So that's what I see. I wonder if I need a new set of glasses?
You will soon be able to throw away your glasses as you vision is
getting much better!
Chasing the sly fox wears this old man out...taking a rest....now
where's that 'shine?
Hi CJ
If you have a second could you briefly explain what is meant by the terms 'trapping volume'? and 'continuation'
cheers Daryl
I'll go back and check on the continuation....but "trapping volume" is sticking the largest amount of contracts or positions. When they spike it low and get a lot of people looking to short, they pull price back above them. Then they will drop it again, only not as low as before, enticing more shorts, but not letting the others out of their positions. Price is still above then. They will do this and trap a large volume of shorts, then move price away from them....forcing them to sell at a loss.
Draw a descending trend line and you will see that after a short rise, they dropped price quickly -one candle. If you draw the descending trend line, you will see it was near the point of drop. They were trying to say the down trend was still in effect. Continuation of the down trend so they could get some more shorts before moving price away from them again.
CJ
Just a quick note folks. taking care of some stuff on the home front so I'll be tied up for a bit. I'll get back to posting some charts as soon as I can....
Things to note....Asian is to set the range, reset the HOD and LOD....
London usually brings the moves... and NY is good for reversals....saw that with a bunch of them this morning....moves usually begin 25-50 pips above or below the Asian range....
The cycles are different across the pairs. They are spread so that they all don't coincide....they are staggered across the pairs... you can use this info and find "lead pair" and "trailing pair".... who leads and who follows?
What happens on the lower time frames, repeats on the higher, at a later date....you saw some nice price swings on the 15M last night, these will be larger when the patterns hit the 1H, 4H and D1.... more on this later...
Do not try to micro focus to close on this stuff...keep a broad view on the charts, across the time frames...
For those having "indicator with-drawl", put some of your indi's on the screen and watch how price reacts around them.... you have a better understanding of how the fox uses these indicators and how he moves price to or beyond to entice action....
Start looking for quality trade setups....don't take everything you see....you will get better at this...
Pueo wrote:
Am I on the right track here? looking for a W..
Not sure you are going to get that "W"...you just had a 3 push low...RRT reversal up, price will pull back into the range for Asian...look for stop hunt later. This is a Level 1 drop of a possi-ble 3 day down cycle...you could have 2 more drops... I would watch for a drop in the London again tonight and see if it plays out....
The "W" would have come at the very low and if you look at that on the 5M tf, you will proba-bly see a "W" where the RRT's are located. Don't get confused on the time frames...."W" and "M"'s presented on the higher time frames offer better trades out of those patterns. They will appear on the lower, but unless you are an experienced scalper, it's tough to make con-sistent profits due to the price range involved and the way they spread price on the bid/ask. CJ
Pueo wrote:
Thanks! Why are you expecting a possible 3 day down cycle?
Not sure it will, but I'm "SHORT" biased in this pair and if may be having an effect on what I "want" price to do. Price is consolidating here, and could go either way. I look for EURJPY to fall so I'm also looking for this pair to go south. 3 day cycles are just that...3 days of price action in the same direction, followed by a consolidation level and a change.
There has been 3 days of price drifting higher off the last peak low, before this drop. Price does not always follow 3 day cycle, but it is week as well and price tends to reverse mid-week...which would give us a new peak low on Friday, where US session could reverse it back into the range for the weekend....
Aus67 wrote: Hi CJ
For me, a difficult aspect of learning to trade naked (not literally) is the lack of sexy indica-tors that fill my brain with price expectations.
Even though you have taught this expectation 'will be wrong' and my account, like many, will prove that is is wrong, the indicator is something for us to visually grab on to.
Naked trading as you teach it, does resonate with me and I know that if I, in time, can learn to trade this way it will be profitable. I know it is early days for me trading this way but I am still sensing a 'void' of information on the screen.
I have attached the AUDJPY 15min chart with what I think will happen to price in the next day or so. My projection is only based on my level of knowledge of 'the fox' and her tactics, so will most likely be way off the mark. If so, I hope you can say no it wont do that because of this!! I find myself looking at a chart and thinking 'what now'?? What will the fox do now and where will I jump in?? and not really having a clue.
Is this the normal 'learning curve' for naked trading? or am I just unwittingly dim! Thanks again for an amazing thread!
Daryl
Do not try to project price....you are a trader, not a mind reader. Your job is to identify the tracks of the fox and follow....otherwise you are just another trapper, trying to guess where he's going to show next....
And the key to which one they choose is whether or not they have the volume already. Wonder if CJ has a way of knowing that, if it just comes down to experience and intuition. No, I don't have any special way of determining where the trapped volume lies. Only the fox knows for sure...we know when he moves price away from the largest amount of trapped con-tracts....
Do not try to anticipate his moves... you are back to trapping. Identify his tracks and follow...you can't lead the fox, he leads you. Just follow along....
