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3.1 Population Size
The 1991 national population census gave the population of Nigeria as 88,992,220. This makes Nigeria the most populous country in Africa. As a matter of fact, about 20% of the worlds black population are Nigerians.
Nigeria's population is greater than that of all the other countries of West Africa put together. It is nine times the population of Ghana, about three times that of the Republic of South Africa. Population-wise, Nigeria is the largest country in the Commonwealth, after India and Pakistan.
Nigeria's population is both an asset and a liability. It is an asset because:
When Nigeria speaks, the rest of the world listens. Nigeria is looked up to for leadership by the black people of the world. Part of the reasons for this is the country's large population. But there are other factors such as its abundant natural resources and its large crude-oil-based national income.
Nigeria's large population is a large potential market for manufacturing industries. But for this potential to be translated into reality, the purchasing power of the people must be substantially increased.
Nigeria's large population could provide it with a large labour force for economic development. But before this can happen, the people need to be educated and provided with job skills.
In the unlikely event of a conventional war, Nigeria would be in a position to raise a very large army because of her large population.
Nigeria's large population is a liability because it means:
So many people to be fed;
So many people to be provided with shelter;
So many people to educate;
So many people to be provided with other social services such as water and health;
So many people to provide with security; and
So many people to provide with employment.
3.2 Population Growth
The population of Nigeria was estimated at 17 million in 1921 and 21 million in 1931. The first complete census in 1953 gave the population as 31 million. The 1963 census gave it as 55.67 million. The 1991 census put the population at 88,992,220.
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From the above figures, it is clear that Nigeria's population has been growing very rapidly over the last eighty years. The National Population Commission has estimated that the population of Nigeria is now growing at about 2.8% per annum. Compared with the developed countries of the world, this rate of growth is very high.
The National Population Commission has estimated the population of the country in 2002 at 122,443,748. At the present rate of growth, the population figure of 1991 may be expected to double by or before the year 2015. This means a doubling of the population in about 25 years.
In order to know the implications of this high rate of growth of Nigeria's population for economic development and the standard of living of the people, it is necessary to compare it with the rate at which the economy is growing. This means comparing the rate of population growth to the rate at which the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is growing.
It has been estimated that Nigeria's Gross Domestic Product is growing at only 3.4% per annum. This is only a little higher than the rate at which the population is growing. The result is that after the country has met its people's basic needs such as food, shelter and clothing, there is little left over for investment in development. Thus, there is a big gap between the peoples' needs for education, water, health facilities and employment and the ability of the country to provide these things.
Above all, there is a big gap between the country's needs for security personnel and her ability to meet these needs. Thus, the country's Police Force is only about 120,000 strong, making the country under-policed, a situation that favours criminal activity.
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3.3 The National Population Policy and Population Growth
The Federal Government of Nigeria is very conscious of the effects which the country's rapid population growth is having on:
Investment in the production of goods and services as against consumption;
Fuel wood supply;
Availability of land for agriculture;
Social services such as health, housing and education;
Employment:
Living standards; and
The environment
Therefore, in 1988 the government approved a National Policy on Population for Development, Unity, Progress and Self-Reliance. One of the goals of the Policy is "to achieve lower population growth rates".
It set a population growth rate target of 2.011/0 per annum for the year 2000. Unfortunately, we do not know what the actual growth rate was in that year.
3.4 How the Population is Distributed
One of the most striking features of the population of Nigeria is that it is very unevenly distributed. While some areas are very densely populated, others are only lightly populated or virtually uninhabited. Figure 6.1 shows the general distribution of population in Nigeria which may be described as follows:
Areas of high population density which include the Igbo-lbibio heartland of Anambra, Imo, Abia and Akwa lbom States; parts of Lagos State and Oyo State as well as parts of Kano, Katsina and Sokoto;
Areas of moderate population density, which include Ogun State, Ondo, Edo, Osun, Ekiti, most of Kogi, parts of Rivers, Cross River, Ebonyi and Benue States; most of Sokoto, parts of Zamfara, Katsina, Jigawa, Plateau and parts of Bauchi, Gombe, Borno and Adamawa States; and
Areas of light population density, which include parts of Oyo,
Kwara, most of Niger, most of Kebbi,
most of Zamfara, most of Kaduna, Nasarawa, Taraba, parts of Bauchi and Gombe, and most of Borno and Adamawa.
This uneven distribution of population is very significant when it is related to the distribution of national resources as we shall see below.
3.5 Areas of Overpopulation
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Overpopulation is a term used to describe a situation in which there are too many people to live comfortably on the present system of land use.
There is abundant evidence to show that there are large and small pockets of overpopulation in Nigeria. According to NEST (1991), this evidence includes:
Increasing malnutrition and famine;
Farmland fragmentation;
Shortage of wood for fuel;
Widespread unemployment and underemployment;
Declining agricultural yields;
Shifts to alternative and less demanding crops (e.g. from yams to cassava);
Partial or total abandonment of agriculture in favour of alternative employment such as petty trading; and
Migration into towns or other rural areas.
Areas of the country which may be said to be overpopulated include:
Parts of Awka. Onitsha, Udi, Okigwe, Orlu and Owerri areas of Anambra, Enugu and Imo States;
Abak, Ikot Ekpene, Uyo and Eastern Ibibio, Ikom in Akwa Ibom and Cross River States;
The Kano-Katsina region;
The Jos Plateau;
Ebiraland in Kogi State; and
Southern Tivland in Benue State. Each of these areas is characterised by several, if not all, of the above evidences of overpopulation.
Furthermore, the environment in these areas has been or is being degraded. Thus soil erosion is a common problem in those parts of Anambra, Enugu, Imo, Akwa Ibom and Cross River States that are listed above as well as on the Jos Plateau.
3.6 Areas of Underpopulation
Underpopulation is a term used to describe a situation in which an area has the resources to support many more people than it actually does.
Vast areas of Nigeria may currently be said to be underpopulated. They include:
Southern Borno State;
Parts of Taraba State;
Large parts of Niger State;
Large parts of Nasarawa State;
Parts of Zamfara State;
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Southern Kaduna State;
Parts of Oyo, Ogun and Ondo States;
Parts of Lagos State (e.g. Epe Division);
The Nike Plains near Enugu;
The Cross River Basin; and
The flood plains of Nigeria's major rivers.
3.7 Population Redistribution
The fact that some areas of the country are overpopulated while some others are underpopulated would seem to call for population redistribution from the former to the latter. In this way, the pressure of population in the former will be made lighter so that the people remaining behind can live more comfortably. At the same time, the areas of underpopulation will have many more people to top their natural resources and make a better life for themselves than where they came from. Quite clearly, such a redistribution of population would be in the overall interest of national security.
As a matter of fact, people have been moving from areas of overpopulation to areas of underpopulation since colonial times. Thus, people have been moving:
From Kano and Katsina into Bauchi State;
From Katsina and Sokoto into Niger and Kaduna States;
From Jos Plateau into Nasarawa State;
From Ebiraland into Undo and Edo States;
From Tivland into Nasarawa and Taraba States.
Unfortunately, some of these population movements which have gone on peacefully for a long period of time have created social disharmonies and social conflicts in various parts of the country in recent years.
Examples include:
Conflicts between the Tiv and their host communities in Taraba and Nasarawa States;
Conflicts between the Hausa-Fulani and their host communities in Southern Kaduna State.
Since population redistribution is in the national interest, the governments and people of Nigeria need to find ways by which host communities will accommodate immigrants so that the resources of the country can be developed and used by all Nigerians.
4.0 Conclusion
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Nigeria has a large population which is growing rapidly and which is unevenly distributed. All of these characteristics of the population are important for national security.
5.0 Summary
Nigeria's population was 88,992,220 in 1991. This large population is both an asset and a liability. Furthermore, the country's population is growing at an estimated 2.8%. Its 1991 population figure is likely to double by or before 2015.
Nigeria's GDP is growing at only 3.4%. This means that after the basic needs of the population have been met, there is relatively little resources left for economic development. It is partly for this reason that the Federal Government developed a National Population Policy which set a target growth rate of 2.0% per annum for the year 2000.
The population of the country is unevenly distributed. There are:
Areas of high population density
Areas of moderate population density and
Areas of low population density.
Furthermore, there are pockets of overpopulation in various parts of the country as well as areas of underpopulation. In order to make better use of the country's resources, it is necessary to redistribute some of the population from the former to the latter. Some redistribution of population has actually been taking place since the colonial period.
There has been social conflicts in some areas in recent years between settlers and their host communities.
Since population redistribution is desirable in the national interest, the governments and people of Nigeria must find ways of ensuring that host communities accommodate settlers.
6.0 Self-assessment Exercise
In what ways may Nigeria's large population be said to be both an asset and a liability?
7.0 Tutor-marked Assignment None
8.0 Further Reading and Other Materials
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1. Barbour, K. Michael et al. Nigeria in Maps. 1982.
2. Iloeje, N.P. A New Geography of Nigeria. Lagos: Longman Nigeria Limited, 1973.
3. Oguntoyinbo, J.S., O.O. Areola and M. Filani. A Geography of Nigerian Development. Ibadan: Heinemann Educational Books (Nig) Ltd., 1978.
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Unit 7: Population: Age-Sex Distribution and Ethnic