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No. 24 • August 2006

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The basic statistical return

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No 24 – August 2006

Contents

Message from the chair

(Jan Smets) ...5 PROCEEDINGS OF THE IFC WORKSHOP ON CPI MEASURES: CENTRAL BANK VIEWS AND CONCERNS, 20 and 21 APRIL 2006

Overview of the workshop ...9 SESSION 1: International methodological standards for

CPI and national practices

(chair: William White) ...13 Background note and key issues for discussion ...14 The CPI manual and IMF statistical capacity building

(Mick Silver) ...17 International methodological standards for CPI and national practices

(Marianne Collin) ...19 Comparison of consumer price indices for the

euro area, the United States and Japan

(Gabriel Quirós) ...33 Measurement errors in the Japanese CPI

(Shigenori Shiratsuka) ...36 Summary of discussion...44 SESSION 2: Inflation measures from the perspective of monetary policy (chair: Shigenori Shiratsuka) ...45 Background note and key issues for discussion ...46 Inflation measures from a monetary policy perspective

(Laurent Bilke) ...52 Alternative measures of Inflation

(Jeremy Rudd) ...53 Inflation measures from the perspective of monetary policy:

The case of Brazil

(Jose Ricardo da Costa e Silva) ...55 Summary of discussion ...58 SESSION 3: The measurement of housing services in the CPI

(chair: Javier Salas) ...61 Background note and key issues for discussion ...62 The treatment of owner-occupied housing in the

harmonised index of consumer prices

(Martin Eiglsperger) ...68 Measurement of housing services in the CPI: The Measurement of

Owner-Occupied Housing in Sweden

(Jesper Johansson) ...80 The measurement of housing services in the CPI: The case of Hong Kong (Li-Gang Liu) ...81 Summary of discussion...84 SESSION 4: Dealing with quality adjustments

(chair: Johannes Hoffmann) ...85 Background note and key issues for discussion ...86 Adjustments for quality change and new goods

(Mick Silver) ...91 The US experience with quality adjustment

(Jeremy Rudd) ...93 Summary of discussion...96 SESSION 5: Other measurement issues of concern to central banks

(chair: Luc Aucremanne)...97 Background note and key issues for discussion ...98 Price index measurement in Mexico

(Javier Salas) ...103 Administered prices in the French HICP

(Valérie Chauvin) ...112 Change in price collection method for the compilation of

the South African CPI

(Pieter Weideman)...114

Irving Fisher Committee on Central-Bank Statistics

Executive Body:

Jan Smets (Chair) Rudi Acx Radha Binod Barman João Cadete de Matos

Kenneth Coates Bart Meganck

Almut Steger

Paul Van den Bergh (outgoing Chair)

IFC Secretariat:

Christian Dembiermont [email protected]

⫹ 41 61 280 8313 Madeleine Op’t Hof [email protected]

⫹ 41 61 280 8335

Monetary and Economic Department Bank for International Settlements

Centralbahnplatz 2 CH-4002 Basel

Switzerland

IFC-Bulletin

Editors:

Kaushik Jayaram Blaise Gadanecz

Editorial Address:

Bank for International Settlements MED Publications Centralbahnplatz 2 CH-4002 Basel

Switzerland

E-mail: [email protected]

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No 24 – August 2006

Contents

The Canadian Experience with core inflation

(Thérèse Laflèche) ...134

Core inflation measures: The case of Poland (Jaros5aw T. Jakubik) ...136

Core inflation measurement at the Riksbank (Jesper Johansson) ...140

Summary of discussion...142

SESSION 7: Quantifying the measurement bias in CPIs (chair: Mark Wynne) ...145

Background note and key issues for discussion ...146

Measurement error in the US CPI (Jeremy Rudd) ...152

The accuracy of the HICP: a comment on recent contributions (Diego Rodriguez-Palenzuela) ...156

The “Index of perceived inflation (IPI)” for Germany: Conceptual principles and shortcomings (Hans-Albert Leifer) ...160

Summary of discussion...164

SESSION 8: Central bank input into national and international discussions on CPI methodology (chair: Gabriel Quirós) ...165

Background note and key issues for discussion ...166

The Bundesbank’s contribution to the inflation measurement debate in Germany (Johannes Hoffmann) ...168

Summary of discussion...173

ANNOTATED LIST OF OTHER BACKGROUND PAPERS...175

BACKGROUND MATERIAL ...187

THE BASIC STATISTICAL RETURNS SYSTEM – A MIRROR TO THE TRENDS IN INDIAN BANKING (Pardeep Maria and Praggya Das) ...198

Irving Fisher Committee on Central-Bank Statistics

Executive Body:

Jan Smets (Chair) Rudi Acx Radha Binod Barman João Cadete de Matos

Kenneth Coates Bart Meganck

Almut Steger

Paul Van den Bergh (outgoing Chair)

IFC Secretariat:

Christian Dembiermont [email protected]

⫹ 41 61 280 8313 Madeleine Op’t Hof [email protected]

⫹ 41 61 280 8335

Monetary and Economic Department Bank for International Settlements

Centralbahnplatz 2 CH-4002 Basel

Switzerland

IFC-Bulletin

Editors:

Kaushik Jayaram Blaise Gadanecz

Editorial Address:

Bank for International Settlements MED Publications Centralbahnplatz 2 CH-4002 Basel

Switzerland

E-mail: [email protected] Website: http://www.ifcommittee.org/

The IFC-Bulletin is published at irregular intervals.

Subscriptions are available free of charge.

Send requests to the IFC Secretariat.

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Message from the chairman on recent and future developments of the IFC

Jan Smets (National Bank of Belgium)

In my last message in the October 2005 issue of the Irving Fisher Committee Bulletin, I empha- sised that the Committee was at important crossroads. Indeed, since then several events have taken place which have had important consequences for the future of the Committee.

1. An informal meeting in Brussels

In October 2005 I invited a number of central banks from the world’s major industrialised and emerging market countries to the National Bank of Belgium in Brussels to discuss the future governance and activities of the Committee. In particular, I submitted the draft statutes which were published in the October 2005 IFC Bulletin for discussion.

Since its inception, the IFC has operated successfully on an informal basis under the umbrella of the International Statistical Institute (ISI). The Chairman and members of the Executive Body served in a personal and voluntary capacity and the Secretariat was provided by the National Bank of Belgium. At the meeting, the represented central banks expressed a strong feeling that the suc- cess of the Committee could best be ensured in the long run through a more formal structure and appropriate governance rules. The draft statutes received general endorsement and benefited from a number of suggestions and clarifications made at the meeting or in the following weeks.

The new statutes clearly outline the objectives and potential future activities of the Committee.

They also introduce a more transparent governance structure for the Committee with institutional members (central banks only) as well as associate ones, a Council (consisting of institutional members only) and an Executive. At the meeting in Brussels a number of central bank representa- tives expressed the willingness of their institutions to become formal institutional members of the new Committee. The current version of the statutes can be found at www.ifcommittee.org

The meeting also confirmed that the future support of the BIS was of crucial importance in order to guarantee the success of the Committee, in terms of technical and political support as well as global reach. Consequently, I committed to approach the relevant BIS governing bodies on behalf of the central banks present in Brussels with the request that the BIS take over the Secretariat function from the National Bank of Belgium.

2. Move of IFC Secretariat to the BIS

I officially approached the BIS at the end of 2005 regarding its hosting of the Secretariat of the Committee. On 10 January 2006 the BIS announced that it had agreed to provide the Secretariat for the IFC with immediate effect. The decision was endorsed at the January meeting of the Governors of the BIS shareholding central banks. In taking its decision, the BIS noted that statis- tical data and related methodological issues were becoming increasingly important to central banks, from the perspective of both monetary and financial stability. It also felt that the support for the IFC was a natural extension of a number of existing statistical initiatives which it supports such as the BIS Data Bank and its International Financial Statistics. A press statement was issued to announce the BIS support for the IFC. The IFC will henceforth function like the other BIS com- mittees such as the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, the Committee on Payment and Settlement Systems, the Committee on the Global Financial System and the Markets Committee.

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so (see www.ifcommittee.org). The first meeting of the Council, at which the institutional mem- bers will be represented, will be held on 29 August 2006 at the BIS, i.e. just prior to the Third IFC Conference. Amongst others, the Council will elect the new Executive on that occasion. Other central banks are, of course, welcome to join the Committee, as institutional or associate mem- bers. They can contact the IFC Secretariat at the BIS for more information.

4. Interaction with the ISI and its Sections

The future status of the Committee within the ISI remains to be clarified. At the ISI Session in April 2005 in Sydney, the ISI granted the IFC provisional official section status for an indefi- nite period. Together with Paul Van den Bergh, past chair of the IFC and senior contact for the IFC at the BIS, I have met with the ISI Executive in late April this year to discuss the future rela- tionship between the IFC and the ISI. It was agreed that the status of the IFC in the ISI structure will be reviewed after the new governance of the IFC has been put in place and the future of the ISI’s own structure has been agreed. Indeed, the ISI is currently undertaking an in-depth review of its operation and governance with the intention of presenting a number of proposals at the next ISI Session in Lisbon in August 2007.

Mr Paul Van den Bergh will continue to liaise with the ISI Permanent Office and, through it, with the ISI Executive Committee and Council. It is particularly important for the Committee to be kept informed of the ongoing consultation within the ISI community. The members of the ISI Executive have been invited to attend the Third IFC Conference in Basel and the President, Mr Niels Kleiding, as well as Vice-President Nicholas Fisher, have accepted the invitation.

5. CPI Workshop

On 20 and 21 April 2006 the IFC hosted a very successful workshop entitled “Consumer Price Index (CPI) Measures: Central Bank views and concerns”. 36 CPI experts from 25 central banks and the IMF attended the workshop which took place at the BIS in Basel. Experiences and views were exchanged and lively discussions took place on a number of issues, including international method- ological standards for CPI, inflation measures from the perspective of monetary policy and quantify- ing the measurement bias in CPIs. Issue notes and summaries of the discussions as well comparative tables are published in this issue of the IFC Bulletin. As a result of the workshop, suggestions for future work have also been submitted to the UNECE/ILO meeting in Geneva in May 2006. UNECE and the ILO are currently the leading international bodies dealing with CPI methodology.

6. Forthcoming events

The Committee has a number of initiatives planned for the near future. As this issue of the Bulletin was going to print, preparations were in full swing for the conference on the

“Measurement of the financial position of the household sector” to take place on 30 and 31 August in Basel. More than 100 experts from 63 central banks have already announced their par- ticipation to the Conference, where more than 40 papers will be presented.

The IFC will also contribute to a conference organised by the International Association of Official Statistics (IAOS) in September. The IAOS has invited the Committee to organise a plenary session on “People on the Move”. The topic of the IFC session will be “Financial Aspects of Migration: the Measurement of Remittances”. Mr Cadete de Matos, member of the IFC Executive and Director of the Statistics Department at the Bank of Portugal, will structure and chair the session.

The Committee will organise a number of so-called “Invited Paper Meetings” at the 2007 ISI Session in Lisbon. Some of them will be co-sponsored with other ISI sections. The IFC website, www.ifcommittee.org, provides more information on all these activities.

2006 will certainly be remembered as an eventful year in the history of the IFC. I believe that the implementation of a more formal structure and appropriate governance rules will anchor the Committee as an important forum in the international statistical arena. Central banks, as compilers and users of a wide range of statistics, are certainly facing a number of interesting sta- tistical challenges in the future. I envisage many fruitful discussions to come and look forward to the continuing active contributions from all the IFC members in the future.

Jan Smets (National Bank of Belgium)

IFC NEWS AND EVENTS

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Proceedings of the Irving Fisher Committee Workshop on: “CPI Measures: Central Bank Views and Concerns” Basel, 20 and 21 April 2006

Overall summary Session 1:

International methodological standards for CPI and national practices Session 2:

Inflation measures from the perspective of monetary policy Session 3:

The measurement of housing services in the CPI Session 4:

Dealing with quality adjustments Session 5:

Other measurement issues of concern to central banks Session 6:

Measures of core or underlying inflation Session 7:

Quantifying the measurement bias in CPIs Session 8:

Central bank input into national and international discussions on CPI methodology

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Overview of the workshop

Jan Smets (National Bank of Belgium)

On 20 and 21 April 2006 the Irving Fisher Committee on Central-Bank Statistics (IFC) organ- ised a workshop on “CPI Measurement: Central Banks Views and Concerns” at the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland. Experts from 26 major central banks around the world as well as from the International Monetary Fund reviewed and evaluated developments with respect to CPI measurement from the perspective of monetary policy makers.

The workshop consisted of a number of sessions, focusing on particular themes. Session 1 looked at international methodological standards for the calculation of CPI as well as at national practices. Session 2 focused on inflation measures from the perspective of monetary policy. In session 3, the measurement of housing services in the CPI was discussed whilst session 4 exam- ined how quality adjustments could appropriately be dealt with. Session 5 identified other meas- urement issues of concern to central banks and session 6 focused on measures of core or underlying inflation. In session 7 the question was addressed as to whether it was possible to quantify the measurement bias in CPIs. Finally, session 8 discussed central bank input into national and international discussions on CPI methodology. For each session, a background issue paper had been prepared and various “lead interveners” introduced the respective topics under discussion. In some cases, additional background papers were submitted. These docu- ments, as well as a summary of the general discussion in each session are included in this spe- cial volume of the IFC Bulletin. An annotated list of references as well as some other background material collected for the workshop are also included.

A few general conclusions resulted from the workshop.

1. Reliable CPI measures are of the utmost importance to central banks, for which they con- stitute a yardstick to assess monetary conditions, in particular the degree of price stability.

Measurement errors in the CPI might thus lead to inadequate monetary policy actions. In the current context of low inflation, in particular, significant measurement errors can have major repercussions for the conduct of monetary policy.

2. There are two basic theoretical approaches to measuring CPIs, ie a cost of goods index (COGI) or cost of living index (COLI). Some will argue that these different approaches have little impact on the practical measurement of the CPI, others consider that they have important implications with respect to practical measurement and calculation decisions (eg quality adjustments or the valuation method for owner occupied housing). Whilst there are particular advantages to individual approaches and whilst these may differ from country to country, there is broad agreement on the properties the measures should have from the per- spective of monetary policy: credibility, reliability, timeliness and comparability.

3. Based on the various evaluation criteria, it is fair to say that much progress has been achieved in recent years in improving CPI measures. The preparation and publication of the

“CPI Manual: Theory and Practice” with input from various international organisations has contributed greatly in this respect. The Manual describes the important concepts in con- structing CPIs as well as various techniques that can be used to collect price information and to compile them into indices. While it avoids being overly prescriptive, the Manual sets out the advantages and disadvantages of individual approaches. The Manual is the basis for technical assistance by international organisations and provides a benchmark to evaluate the quality of countries’ CPI statistics, thereby contributing to the international comparability of national statistics. Progress has been made, in particular, in the collection of individual price data, the use of a geometric mean to aggregate individual prices, the use of chained indices, and reliance on explicit methods for handling quality changes. Nevertheless, some further improvements can be made.

4. There is general agreement that improvements should be made with respect to the treatment of owner occupied housing in national CPI statistics. These often constitute an important

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result in significant differences in the measurement of CPIs. More work is thus needed in this area and various international projects are currently underway. In this context the importance of improving statistics on house prices cannot be underestimated.

5. Dealing with quality adjustment is another major challenge for CPI compilers, for goods as well as for services included in the index. Here too, there are different methods, either implicit or explicit, to treat quality adjustments. More explicit methods, including hedonics, are appealing but also raise a number of issues on which there is no consensus view. Whatever methods are used, more transparency is needed on how they are used in practice (CPI com- pilers should be encouraged, for instance, to provide information on the hedonic functions they use to adjust observed prices for changes in product qualities). Moreover, there is no rea- son why quality adjustment methods should not be introduced also for services.

6. Though they may be less important than dealing with owner occupied housing and quality adjustment, there are a number of other measurement issues that are important from a cen- tral bank perspective. Keeping track of new products, for instance, is an important issue in the current economic environment characterised by globalisation and rapid technological change. Dealing with possible substitution effects is also important, for instance by using chained-Laspeyres indices at the higher level of aggregation or using geometric means at the lower level. Finally, the outlet structure should be revised regularly on the basis of sur- veys of household purchasing patterns and the analysis of the market share of various types of retailers.

7. Research carried out by central bank experts seems to indicate that there is a significant bias in CPI measures and that this bias tends to be positive (ie official CPI measures over- state “true” inflation). This is reflected in the fact that most central banks define price sta- bility as a positive increase of the CPI, typically between 1–2%. It should be noted in this respect that there is also quite a degree of uncertainty about these bias estimates as well as their different components. Moreover, the estimated measurement errors may change over time and be affected by the business cycle. Central banks may have to take this evidence and uncertainty into account in the conduct of monetary policy.

8. Monetary policymakers have an understandable interest in distinguishing short-term move- ments or noise in CPI statistics from underlying or core inflation. The former may result from variations in the price of seasonal goods, changes in indirect taxes or various idiosyn- cratic shocks affecting specific markets (eg oil). The latter would be influenced by mone- tary conditions. A panoply of different measures of core inflation has been proposed.

Statistical measures remove and/or reweigh the components of headline inflation (they include exclusion-based measures such as headline minus food and energy, trimmed means, variability-adjusted measures and dynamic factor indices). Model-based approaches try to derive core inflation from economic theory (for instance, by the multivariate analysis of past relationships between aggregate inflation and its determinants). Research indicates that none of the existing core inflation measures are fully satisfactory, in particular with respect to their forecasting properties. Not surprisingly central bankers tend to look at different measures of core inflation, as well as a combination of headline and core inflation, in order to assess price developments. In this context, it is also not clear whether CPI compilers should compute and publish official measures of core inflation or whether this should be left to individual analysts and researchers.

9. No doubt, some further improvements in CPI methodologies would be useful. The relation- ship between the underlying theoretical models and practical arrangements for CPI meas- urement could be better understood. Improvements could be made in the data collection processes as well as in the compilation methods. More information could be disclosed on particular calculation methods. All this could mean that more, and better, resources would be needed at national statistical institutes. As experience has shown, central banks them- selves can be important agents for change. They can offer support to statistical institutes, for instance in terms of advising on specific issues, making concrete proposals, helping to set priorities with respect to improvements and carrying out research on CPI methodolo- gies. This could mean that more, and better, resources may also be needed at central banks in order to fully understand CPI developments, both at home and abroad. In many cases, central banks have recruited price experts and/or established a specialised “prices” unit and perhaps the workshop could contribute to highlight the importance of CPI measurement issues.

10. Finally, a big challenge remains in terms of improving the communication on CPI issues to the general public. These are sensitive issues, as CPI measures are often used to index wages or other contracts, including for financial instruments. Moreover, inflation perception has in some cases diverged from measured inflation, even for prolonged periods

PROCEEDINGS IFC WORKSHOP

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of time. More transparency will probably help, for instance with respect to the theoretical foundation and actual practices underlying CPI calculations. Anonymised micro data could also be made available to researchers, in central banks and outside. This should stimulate the evaluation of existing procedures and broaden the number of stakeholders in CPI statis- tics. It should also facilitate international comparability of price statistics. Though no sin- gle measure will ever be perfect, it should be clear that enhanced credibility of CPI measures will ultimately strengthen the credibility of monetary policy as well.

Jan Smets (National Bank of Belgium)

JAN SMETS

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SESSION 1

International methodological standards for CPI and national practices

Chair: William White (BIS)

Background note and key issues for discussion

Papers: The CPI manual and IMF statistical capacity building Mick Silver (IMF)

International methodological standards for CPI and national practices

Marianne Collin (National Bank of Belgium)

Comparison of consumer price indices for the euro area, the United States and Japan

Gabriel Quirós (European Central Bank) Measurement errors in the Japanese CPI Shigenori Shirasuka (Bank of Japan) Summary of discussion

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Background note and key issues for discussion

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a key economic indicator for central banks, since it provides the benchmark against which to assess price stability, one of their primary objectives. In addi- tion, the CPI is used to compute real economic indicators such as gross domestic product (GDP) or productivity. The CPI also plays an important role in the indexation of wages, social security allowances (e.g. pensions) and financial instruments (e.g. index-linked bonds). Important meas- urement bias in the CPI might thus trigger inadequate economic policies. Moreover, it is neces- sary that CPI statistics are not only reliable but also internationally comparable since cross-country comparisons of general economic developments are increasingly important to economic agents and policy makers in a globalised economic and financial systems.

Not surprisingly, CPI methodology has received increasing attention in recent years from policy makers, in particular from central bankers. A number of specific developments have also contributed to this. For instance, the publication of the Boskin Report in the United States in 1996 identified possible sources of estimation bias in the US CPI such as substitution bias, out- let bias, quality bias, and new products bias. The Report concluded that there was an important upward bias of about 1.1% a year in the US CPI (i.e. an overestimation of the domestic inflation rate). This finding drew substantial attention from different analysts in the academic and busi- ness community as well as from policy makers, in the US and outside. Research projects were launched in other countries, including Australia, Canada, France and the UK, in order to assess the accuracy of the national CPI statistics. Another development has been globalisation and technical innovation which have created entirely new products for consumers as well as ongoing improvements in the quality of many goods and services. This has challenged CPI compilers to find new methodologies for collecting prices and for computing price indexes. Finally, the fact that many economies are approaching or experiencing price stability means that measurement errors in the CPI may become proportionally larger than in the past when inflation was running at double-digit figures.

Reflecting the ongoing improvements in methodological standards for compiling price sta- tistics, a new manual “Consumer Price Index Manual: Theory and Practice” was published in 2004 by the ILO, IMF, OECD, Eurostat, UN and World Bank. This publication contained a sig- nificant revision of the earlier ILO Manual on CPI which was published in 1989. The new man- ual is the result of the joint work undertaken by the six international organisations as well as of various recommendations and suggestions made by working groups and international meetings on CPI (ICLS1, Ottawa Group, joint UNECE/ILO Meeting on CPI). Universities and research institutes also contributed to the new Manual.

The purpose the new CPI Manual is to assist, and provide guidelines to, the producers of CPI statistics, to international comparability of CPI statistics and to give a better understanding of CPI methodology to users of price statistics. As mentioned by Armknecht (2004), the Manual is not a “cookbook” and it does not provide a simple set of rules that CPI compilers can follow. It provides detailed information and explanations on methods used to compile a CPI whilst recog- nising the need to take account of given economic conditions in each country. It also deals with conceptual and theoretical issues that compilers should consider when computing CPIs such as the choice of formula, the frequency of adapting weights or updating outlets and including new products, and procedures for quality adjustment and sampling. For each topic, the Manual presents the different practices currently in use, proposes alternatives whenever possible, and discusses the pros and cons of each of them.

In Europe, the issue of international comparability of CPI measures became of crucial importance when the European Union was established and twelve member states decided to join the euro area, i.e. a monetary union with a single currency – the euro – and a common monetary policy conducted by the ECB. In this context, it became extremely important to be able to com- pare national inflation measures. To meet this need, Eurostat started in 1993 to develop a har- monised methodology, known as the Harmonised Consumer Price Index (HICP) for individual euro area countries as well as the euro area as a whole. The HICP was used to assess the price

1 International Conference on Labour Statistics.

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BACKGROUND NOTE AND KEY ISSUES

convergence in the run-up to the start of Stage Three of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU).

Since then it has become the yardstick used by the ECB to assess price stability in the euroarea.

The methodology for the HICP has undergone a number of changes since 1993, in particu- lar in terms of geographic coverage, sampling, inclusion of new products, and frequency of weight update. In 2000 and 2001 the CPI basket was extended to include health, education and social protection. Since then, the pace of harmonisation has slowed down noticeably: the main cur- rent priorities of Eurostat are to improve quality adjustment methods and to include owner-occupied housing in the HICP.

At the international level, the IMF had greatly contributed to foster the quality and the trans- parency of CPI statistics. One key contribution has been the Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS), created in 1996 to guide countries in the provision of economic or financial data. SDDS identifies best practices in the dissemination of data in a number of important areas: coverage, periodicity, timeliness, public access to the data, integrity of the data, and data quality.

With respect to the latter, the IMF has developed a Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF) to assess the quality of economic statistics2. The Framework spells out the different dimensions of data quality:

prerequisites of quality (e.g. legal environment, resource available for the statistical program),

assurances of integrity (e.g. professionalism, transparency and ethical standards),

methodological soundness (e.g. concepts, scope, classification and basis for recording),

accuracy and credibility (e.g. source of data, statistical technique),

serviceability (e.g. timeliness and frequency, consistency),

and accessibility.

In other words, it looks at the quality of the statistical agency, the statistical product and the sta- tistical process. This framework is used, amongst others, in the context of the Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC), which was launched in 1999. These Reports are prepared by Fund staff and provide a detailed assessment of the extent to which individual coun- tries meet international standards and codes in 12 important areas.3Information on the quality of national CPIs is found under data dissemination. With the approval of the respective country, the ROSC is made publicly available. ROSCs are regularly updated, and new reports are pub- lished every few years.

The preparation and publication of the CPI Manual, the European HICP project, and the ini- tiatives launched by the IMF have contributed to improving CPI methodologies in a number of countries and to fostering international comparability of national CPIs. In the context of the sur- vey carried out to prepare the workshop, several central banks have reported that the use of the geometric formula at the elementary level, the introduction of explicit methods for quality changes and more frequent weight adjustments have been the most important enhancements that have been implemented recently in their national CPI. They have also indicated that the various international initiatives mentioned above have motivated their respective national CPI compilers to introduce these improvements.

Although national practices and international comparability have been improved, there prob- ably remain important challenges with respect to CPI statistics. In particular, the coverage of owner-occupied housing and the treatment of quality changes may need to be further improved.

Basket weights may still need to be adjsusted more frequently than in the past: some countries such as Italy, Spain, Russia and Poland adjust their weights on an annual basis, while other economies like South Africa, China and Hong Kong do this only every 5 years. Finally, national practices with respect to geographical and population coverage (e.g. all population versus urban) as well as product classifications may need to be reviewed.

Issues for discussion

• What major improvements have been made in recent years to national CPIs? How have adjust- ments in national CPI methodologies tried to take account of new international standards and/or best practices?

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• What are currently the major factors impairing the international comparability of CPIs? How could international comparability be further fostered?

• Could and should central banks be more pro-actively involved in efforts to improve national and international methodologies for CPIs?

References

Armknecht, P. (2004), “The New Price Index Manuals”, IMF, paper presented at the IFC conference on Central Bank Issues Regarding National and Financial Accounts, IFC Bulletin 19.

ECB (2005), “Comparability of Statistics for the Euro Area, the United States and Japan”, Monthly Bulletin, April.

ECB (2005), “The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices: Concept, Properties and Experience to date”, Monthly Bulletin, July.

Eurostat (2001), “Compendium of HICP Reference Documents”, Luxembourg.

ILO, IMF, OECD, UNECE, Eurostat and the World Bank (2004), “Consumer Price Index Manual: Theory and Practice”, Geneva.

Johnson D, et al. (2005), “What Happened to the Price Measurement since the Boskin Report? The U.S.

Experience”, Bureau of Labour Statistics, paper presented at the OECD conference Inflation Measures:

too high-too low- Internationally Comparable in Paris, 21–22 June 2005.

Lane W. and M. Schmidt (2006), “Comparing Inflation between the United States and Europe using the Methods of the European Union’s Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices”, Bureau of Labour and Statistics.

Stoevska V. (2004), “Consumer Price Indices, International Standards – an Overview”, ILO, paper pre- sented at the IFC conference on Central Bank Issues Regarding National and Financial Accounts, IFC Bulletin 19.

Woolford K. (2005), “The Boskin Report and Price Measurement in Australia”, Australian Bureau of Statistics, paper presented at the OECD conference Inflation Measures : too high-too low- Internationally Comparable in Paris, 21–22 June 2005.

Web site

IMF: The IMF’s Dissemination Standards Bulletin Board (DSBB) provides access to the Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS), the General Data Dissemination System (GDDS), and the Data Quality Reference (DQRS) sites: http://dsbb.imf.org/Applications/web/dsbbhome/

PROCEEDINGS IFC WORKSHOP – SESSION 1

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The CPI manual and IMF statistical capacity building

Mick Silver (IMF)

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The IMF has assisted in developing the Consumer Price Index (CPI) Manual* (ILO et al., 2004) with a view to providing a detailed and comprehensive explanation of CPI methods and to explaining the various conceptual and theoretical issues involved in constructing such statistics.

While the manual establishes international standards on CPI measurement, it extends beyond a set of rules or procedures, and explains the “how” as well as “why” of using different methods according to circumstances. The companion Producer Price Index (PPI) Manual* (IMF et al., 2004) and the draft Export and Import Price Index Manual (IMF et al., forthcoming) also follow this approach. The process of preparing the CPI Manual involved an Intersecretariat Working Group on Price Indices in which the various international organizations with a key interest in price statistics are represented (ILO, IMF, ECE, OECD, World Bank, Eurostat, and UNSD).

Individual CPI experts also provided input, in particular through the UN International Working Group on Price Indices, the so-called Ottawa Group.

The new CPI Manual was developed to deal with some shortcomings of current CPI compi- lation practices. These arise, for instance, in the choice of aggregation formula used at both the elementary level and the (weighted) higher level, in the treatment of quality change, of new goods and seasonal products, and in the hard-to-measure areas of services. The new Manual is fully integrated with the System of National Accounts 1993. There is ongoing work on the man- uals related to the preparation of revised versions, non-English translations, shelter price indices, and core inflation. The availability of high quality CPI statistics is an essential pre-requisite for the formulation of appropriate macroeconomic and financial policies. The Fund’s Statistics Department works to develop internationally accepted standards and provides technical assis- tance and training to promote the adoption of these standards and best practice dissemination.

The CPI Manual is the basis of the IMF’s training and technical assistance work in price statis- tics. The activities of the IMF’s Statistics Department fall into 6 categories: (i) Data Standards;

(ii) Surveillance; (iii) Technical Assistance/Training; (iv) Statistical Methodology; (v) Database Management and Statistical Publications; and (vi) International Statistical Coordination and Cooperation.

Two innovations by the IMF’s Statistics Department worthy of particular note relate to dis- semination and data quality assessment. The IMF’s Dissemination Standards Bulletin Board (DSBB) provides information on the methodology used by countries to compile their macro- economic statistics, including their price indices, and information on the dissemination to the public of their economic and financial data.2The DSBB consists of two tiers. The General Data Dissemination System (GDDS), which applies to all Fund members, is designed to help manage statistical capacity-building. The more detailed Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS) is for those member countries having or seeking access to international capital markets. The IMF’s Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF) is an overall framework developed by the Statistics Department over the past several years. It focuses on five dimensions of data quality:

1. Assurances of integrity; 2. Methodological soundness; 3. Accuracy and reliability; 4.

Serviceability; and 5. Accessibility. It provides a framework by which assessments can be made of pertinent aspects of a country’s macroeconomic statistics.

IMF experience finds a number of problem areas with CPIs, both in terms of resource con- straints and the use of inappropriate statistical techniques. Resource constraints are often observed in the areas of computing, staff, the infrequent updating of weights, insufficient cov- erage of rural areas, the infrequent rotation of products and outlets, and poor sampling frames for outlets. Methodological concerns pertain to the choice of formula, poor to little quality

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the population-share weights to aggregate regional CPIs, and the introduction of new products only on rebasing.

There is some resistance by statistical authorities to methodological change. Change affects stakeholders, and can damage the long-run credibility of the series. On the side of change are often central banks, especially those initiating inflation targeting regimes. Where shortcomings are the result of resource constraints, central banks can play a role to alleviate these. Where there are root methodological concerns, such as quality change adjustments, these must be addressed by the statistical office. Where there are methodological concerns pertinent only to measures of monetary or core inflation, alternative measures can be developed, preferably by the statistical office, but if not by the central bank using raw CPI data.

References

* International Labour Office (ILO), IMF, OECD, Eurostat, UN, World Bank, 2004a, Producer Price Index Manual: Theory and Practice (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

——, 2004b, Consumer Price Index Manual: Theory and Practice (Geneva: ILO).

Mick Silver (IMF)

PROCEEDINGS IFC WORKSHOP – SESSION 1

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International methodological standards for CPI and

national practices

Marianne Collin (National Bank of Belgium)

There has been great interest in recent years in CPI measurement. Different factors account for this. Firstly, inflation has declined to a low and stable level – around 2% – in many countries, which implies that measurement errors account for a larger proportion than in the past when inflation was running at double-digit numbers. Secondly, the widespread adoption of inflation targeting by central banks makes it particularly important to measure inflation accurately.

Finally, CPI measurement tends to be more difficult than in the past as a result of innovation and globalisation. In recent years, major improvements have been achieved in many countries, which are in line with international standards (i.e. “CPI Manual: Theory and Practice”). These enhance- ments concern the price collection and the compilation of CPIs (e.g. formulae, basket revisions).

We examine these two issues in turn.

Price collection

Many countries have reported significant improvements in the collection techniques of individ- ual prices. In Italy, ISTAT has enhanced the definition of the products and the correction proced- ures. In addition, the number of price quotes has been augmented by means of an increase in the number of products surveyed and of the number of quotes per product. In the United States, the collection period covers all business days of the month, compared to the first 15 or 18 days before. In South Africa, the National Institute of Statistics has switched recently from a central collection method (survey) to a direct collection method. Finally, in the Netherlands, the National Institute of Statistics has started to use scanner data in the price compilation. This is particularly important, since prices and volumes are available on a timely basis. Furthermore, information on the product attributes – available with scanner data – might be used to adjust for quality changes.

CPI compilation

Major improvements have also been achieved at this level. Different areas of progress might be distinguished:

i. Formula

At the lower level of the individual product prices that are incorporated into sub-indices, many countries1have in recent years adopted the geometric mean to aggregate individual prices and to deal with the substitution bias at this level of aggregation. At the higher level of the compil- ation of the sub-indices themselves, some countries – Spain, Switzerland, Europe2, Italy, and Korea – have implemented an annual chained index, which allows for more frequent weight updates and facilitates the introduction of new products. In addition, superlative formulae (ideal indices) are currently used in the United States and in Sweden to resolve completely the substi- tution bias at the upper level of aggregation.

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ii. Weight and new products

A large number of countries have reported recent weight updates and the introduction of new products by CPI compilers. In addition, central bankers observe that CPI compilers do revise and introduce new products more frequently than in the past. For instance, in Europe, Thailand, Belgium, Brazil, Switzerland, Sweden, Poland, Portugal and Russia weights are revised every year or every two years.

iii. Quality adjustment

CPI compilers have recently started to use explicit methods to adjust for quality changes. In the US, Japan, Italy, Spain and Germany, hedonic methods have been used for different types of products.

Final comments

Although major changes have been implemented in recent years, some important enhancements are needed, for instance to improve international comparability. Some important divergences remain in terms of coverage (population, geographic and items). The formulae used by CPI compilers diverge, some countries are still using for instance the arithmetic means to aggregate individual prices, while other have adopted the geometric mean to cope with the substitution bias at this level of aggregation. Concerning the weight and new product revision, major diver- gences are observed. Some countries – Australia, Germany, Honk Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Netherlands and South Africa – continue to revise weights every 5 years, while in other economies, such as Belgium, Europe, US, Poland, Portugal, Russia and Sweden, CPI compilers update weights on a yearly basis or every two years. Finally, quality adjustment methods differ considerably across countries and moreover, the number and type of products subject to quality adjustment vary also significantly.

Marianne Collin (National Bank of Belgium)

PROCEEDINGS IFC WORKSHOP – SESSION 1

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MARIANNE COLLIN

ArgentinaAustraliaBelgiumBrazilCanadaFrance IPC-GBA (Great BuenosThe Australian CPI The CPI measuresCPI (IPCA) measures Indicator of changesThe CPI estimates the Aires) measures the measures purethe change in thethe change in the in consumer pricesaverage change in prices price changes of a price change retail prices of a fixedprices of a fixedexperienced byof household consumer set of goods and in a selected set of goods andbasket of products Canadians throughgoods between two services representativebasket of goods services used byas determinedtime and obtained bygiven periods. It is a of that population’sand services (of households, residingin the Household comparing the cost ofsynthetic measurement consumption patternsconstant quantityin the nationalBudget Surveya fixed basket ofof “pure” trends and quality) typicallyterritorycommoditiesin product prices, purchased bypurchased in ai.e., at a constant Australian householdsparticular year. Thelevel of quality index reflects only pure price movements Households in All metropolitan privateAll expenditures madeHousehold in urban All Canadian families Residents and the Greater Buenos households (64 percent ofby the residents onareas with monthly and individuals livingnon-residents Aires urban areaprivate households)the Belgian territory.income, from any in urban and rural(such as tourists) Expenditures made bysource, ranging from private householdsin metropolitan residents abroad 1 to 40 minimum France and are excludedsalariesoverseas departments Prices are collected in the“Metropolitan” is Whole countryUrban area in All provinces,French territory by GBA metropolitan areadefined as consisting 10 metropolitanWhitehorse andresidents and (Capital⫹24 districts in of households inareas and 1 capital Yellowknifenon-residents the province of BA). As the six Australian (Goiania) (31% of the (such as tourists) for travel expenditure in State capital cities, entire population)in metropolitan tourist hotels, the prices Darwin and CanberraFrance and overseas are collected in the departments vacation resorts most frequently visited by the reference population NSA, excluding The types of items Goods and servicesAll goods and services Consumer items withThe theoretical field Financialselected for pricing used by householdsactually purchased byretail prices, excludesfor the CPI is Intermediation are goods and services households duringincome taxes,defined as effective Services Indirectly actually acquired bythe period donations,tradable monetary measured, investment, the reference population of the Householdcontributions made tohousehold final loan amortisation, in the weighting base Budget Surveypension plans, andconsumption. It excludes

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PROCEEDINGS IFC WORKSHOP – SESSION 1

taxes, donation period. Items excluded areconsumer savingsprivate hospital services, and money giftexpenditure on gambling, and investments, lifegambling, and life income taxes, cash gifts, insurance and healthinsurance mortgage interest payments, services provided consumer credit charges under publicly funded and expenditure health insurance on illegal activitiesprograms Owner- ExcludedIncluded ExcludedExcludedIncluded Excluded occupied (acquisition(user cost) housingapproach) Formula Elementary

Geometric mean:

Geometric mean: mainlyArithmetic Geometric Geometric

Unweighted arithmetic mainly

Ratio of arithmeticmeanmeanmeanaverage of prices:

Arithmetic mean:mean: sometimeshomogenous products public water supply,

Geometric average cable televisionof relative prices: other varieties Higher levelChained-LaspeyresLaspeyresChained-LaspeyresChained- LaspeyresLaspeyresLaspeyres Update interval WeightEvery 10yEvery 5yearsEvery 2 yearsMonthlyEvery 4yearsEvery year New productsNot regularlyEvery 5yearsEvery 2 yearsToday it is around Every 4yearsEvery year 6–7 years. In the future it will be continuously OutletsNot regularlyn.a.No update since 1996As needed (end or Annually for many every year opening of a new saler CP basic classes. All will be considered outlet samples are as it occurs)reviewed at least every 2 to 3y ClassificationCOICOPCOICOPCOICOPCOICOPCOICOPCOICOP Periodicitymonthlyquarterlymonthlymonthlymonthlymonthly

Cross-country Comparison: CPI (continued) ArgentinaAustraliaBelgiumBrazilCanadaFrance

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MARIANNE COLLIN

GermanyHong Kong SARIndiaIndonesiaItalyJapan The CPI measures theThe CPI measures theThe CPI measures theThe CPI measures theThe CPI measures theThe CPI measures the average change in therelative change over price of change over price of change in a temporal change in theprice movements of prices for all goods time in the total cost time in the level of retailfixed market basket ofprices of a basket ofgoods and services and services of a specified basket prices of a fixed set ofconstant quality,goods destined to finalwhich are purchased by purchased byof consumer goods andgoods and services onconsumed by generalprivate consumptionconsumer throughout the households for services-fixed in which the Working populationcountry. It reflects consumption terms of quantity and Class families makechanges in the cost of purposesquality – generally expenditurespurchasing goods and purchased services in a fixed market by householdsbased at current retail in Hong Kongprices, but it is not designed to measure changes in the cost of living attributed to changes in the consumption structure of consumers Households, All Households, Industrial workersLow, middle and highFinal private consumptionHouseholds with two irrespectiveexcluding the income, pensioners,of families on the wholepersons or more of nationality or highest and lowestwage and salary workersItalian economic territory residence statusexpenditure brackettype of householdsaccording to ESA 95 Economic territoryHong Kong70 cities/townUrban areas (45 cities)The Italian economicWhole country territory; in particular outlets and tenants in 87 Italian chief towns are sampled and then surveyed

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PROCEEDINGS IFC WORKSHOP – SESSION 1

Item coverageConsumptionGoods and servicesOn the basis of the–Private consumptionAll goods and services expenditures which arepurchased by householdsexpenditures incurred byexcept gambling, lotterynormally purchased for incurred in monetaryfor final consumption.the working class inand life insuranceconsumption; cash gifts transactions; the priceBettings, income taxes,1981–1982and remittances are changes for some 750endowment policyexcluded exactly specified premiums, mortgage goods and services payments, investments are combined. Such and savings are goods and services excluded are selected with the goal to represent the consumption by households with a sufficient degree of accuracy Owner- Included (rentalIncluded (rentalIncluded (rentalExcludedExcludedIncluded (rental occupiedequivalence)equivalence)equivalence)equivalence) housing Formula ElementaryRatio of arithmetic

Geometric mean:Ratio of arithmetic

Average of priceGeometricRatio of meansheterogeneous meanrelativesmeanarithmetic mean products

Geometric mean:

Ratio ofseasonal goods arithmetic means: homogenous goods Higher LaspeyresLaspeyresLaspeyresLaspeyresChained-Laspeyres levelLaspeyres Cross-country Comparison: CPI (continued) GermanyHong Kong SARIndiaIndonesiaItalyJapan

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MARIANNE COLLIN

GermanyHong Kong SARIndiaIndonesiaItalyJapan al Every 5 yearsEvery 5yearsGenerally every Every 5yearsEvery yearEvery 5years 10years but currently 23y Every 5 years, Every 5yearsAt the same time Every yearEvery 2–3years or sooneras the cost of if necessaryliving survey Every 5 years, or Every 5yearsAdjusted if sample Every year (partialEvery year sooner if necessary outlet is not rotation of (if an outlet closes, active anymorethe sample) it is replaced by another) COICOPLocal classificationCOICOPCOICOPCOICOP scheme: 9 sections, 97 groups, 237 sub-groups, 984 items MonthlyMonthlyMonthlyMonthlyMonthly

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PROCEEDINGS IFC WORKSHOP – SESSION 1

Cross-country Comparison: CPI KoreaMexicoMalaysiaNetherlandsPolandPortugal DefinitionThe CPI measures the The CPI measures the The CPI measures pure The CPI measures the The CPI measures the The CPI measures pure average change in prices evolution over time of a price changes over time average price changes average change in the price changes in fixed- for a fixed-market basket constant basket of goods in a fixed basket of goods of goods and services prices of goods and market basket of constant of goods and services of and services taken as and services commonly purchased byservices purchased for quantity and quality for constant quantity and representative of purchased by a majority householdsconsumption purposes the general population quality purchased byconsumption habits for of private householdsby the resident urban consumers urban householdshouseholds in Poland Coverage PopulationAll urban consumer units, All households in cities The target population All private households All private households All population, without excluding one-person with more than 20 000 includes the whole in the Netherlandsresiding permanently in restrictions households, farmers and inhabitantspopulation living in Poland, excluding fisherman’s households. urban and rural private institutional households Covers about 83.2 householdsand foreign households percent of the total urban population Geography36 cities were selected to Sample of 46 cities All states in Malaysia. Whole countryEntire area of the country.Entire country represent the all urban representing small, Prices collected in 116 Prices are collected in 209 (included the areas in Korea. The medium and large centres of price collection price survey regions. The Madeira and the indexes for each city are cities in seven regions represent those most region may be a small Azores islands) published every monthof the country frequented by consumers town or a part of a city for purchases of goods(e.g. a district). and servicesA purposive selection of regions was based on the size of population, density of a shop network and price

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MARIANNE COLLIN

KoreaMexicoMalaysiaNetherlandsPolandPortugal The goods and services All commonly used All goods and services All goods and services All goods and servicesGoods and services included are limited to goods and services commonly purchased byessential to household bought within the considered representative consumption expenditures bought by thetarget population for consumption, paid out of territory by the reference of the structure of and exclude items that are covered population for consumption purposes. the net spendable income.population for purposes expenditure in private difficult to estimate consumption purpose, Excludes income taxes, Direct taxes and social of consumption. consumption by residents such as interest, damage including taxescharitable donations and insurance premiums are Expenditures for within the whole country insurance, contributions statutory contributions not included in the CPIcash gifts, life insurance, and membership fees, such as employee imputed rents, illegal but include rent depositsprovident fund and activities and some consumer savings, professional services, investments and life such as tax advising insuranceand consulting ExcludedIncluded (rental ExcludedExcludedExcludedExcluded equivalence) Ratio of

Geometric average: Ratio of arithmetic Ratio of arithmetic Geometric Geometric arithmetic food products average of pricesmeanmeanmean mean

Arithmetic: the rest of the basket LaspeyresChained-Chained-LaspeyresChained-Chained- LaspeyresLaspeyresLaspeyresLaspeyres al Every 5 yearsAccording to the Every 5 yearsEvery 5 yearsEvery yearEvery year Income-Expenditure Survey Every 5 yearsEvery yearEvery 5 yearsEvery monthEvery yearAs weight ⬎0.1% of households’consumer expenditures Every 5 yearsEvery yearWhen necessaryEvery monthEvery yearn.a. Commodity Classification of COICOPCOICOPCOICOP Classification System Household Goods and was developed Services (CHGS) the National in the 1968 SNA Statistical Office MonthlyMonthlyMonthlyMonthlyMonthlyMonthly

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PROCEEDINGS IFC WORKSHOP – SESSION 1

Cross-country Comparison: CPI SingaporeRussiaSouth AfricaSpainSwedenSwitzerland DefinitionThe CPI measures the The CPI measures The CPI shows the average The CPI is a statisticalThe CPI measures The CPI measures the change in the prices the changes over price level of all those measurement of the the average change pure change in prices of a fixed basket of time in the overall goods and services (a fixed evolution in the overall in prices of of goods and services goods and services level of prices basket of goods and prices of goods and goods and services bought for the purpose commonly purchased for goods and services services of unchanging services consumed byavailable for private of consumption by by a majority of purchased by public or equivalent quantity and the population living in consumption in the the resident households over timefor non-production quality) bought b a typical family dwellings economic territoryhouseholds in consumptionconsumer or household in Spainof SwedenSwitzerland in South Africa changes over time Coverage PopulationCentral 90% All household The target population All private households All households All private households in the distribution with various includes all South African resident in Spain. It doesconsuming goods residing permanently of households income levelshouseholds living in the not cover the and services for the in Switzerland (excluding single metropolitan and urban expenditure of person purpose of private person households) byareas (56% of the total resident in institutions, consumption in household expenditure number of South barracks and other non-Sweden African households) private households. GeographyWhole of SingaporeUrban population Nine provinces monitored Pricing take place in 18 All of SwedenAll of Switzerland; centres (266 cities)in retail and service outlets regions; 50 provinces sample of 16 regions in two broad geographical and two autonomous nationwide (town areas: “main metropolitan” cities: Ceuta and Melilla; built-up area) or “other urban” areas 141 municipalitiesselected among the within each province7 major regions

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MARIANNE COLLIN

SingaporeRussiaSouth AfricaSpainSwedenSwitzerland All goods and –Goods and services purchasedAll goods and services All goods and All goods and services commonly by the reference population bought by the reference services bought services bought by purchased by the determined mainly from the population for the within Sweden for the reference index population Income and Expenditure of purposes of the purpose of population for the for consumption Households Survey. Items consumption; direct private consumption purposes of purposes; expenditure excluded are income taxes, taxes, expenditures except child care consumption; on direct taxes, contributions to pension on capital assets/and care of the expenditure on direct cash gifts, gambling plans, consumer savings investments, elderly, fees for taxes, cash gifts, and illegal activities and investments, gambling donations, gambling hospital care, gambling and illegal are excludedand expenditure on illegal and illegal activities life insuranceactivities are activitiesare excluded excluded Included ExcludedIncluded (user cost)ExcludedIncluded Included (rental (rental (user cost)equivalence) equivalence) Geometric meanGeometric meanGeometric meanGeometric meanGeometric meanGeometric mean LaspeyresChained-LaspeyresLaspeyresChained-LaspeyresWalshChained-Laspeyres al Every 5 yearsAnnuallyEvery 5 yearsEvery yearEvery yearAnnually Every 5 yearsas weight ⬎0.1% Every 5 yearsEvery yearEvery year

Weighted level: of households’Every 5 years consumer

Un-weighted level: expendituresContinuously Every 5 yearsAs rarely as possibleEvery 5 yearsEvery 5 yearsEvery yearRegularly Singapore’s COICOPCOICOPCOICOPCOICOP COICOP Classification of Expenditure Items MonthlyMonthlyMonthlyMonthly MonthlyMonthly

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PROCEEDINGS IFC WORKSHOP – SESSION 1

Cross-country Comparison : CPI ThailandUnited KingdomUnited StatesEurope DefinitionThe CPI measures the The CPI measures the The CPI measures HICP measures the average change in prices of a average change in prices of pure price change in a price changes of goods and fixed basket of goods goods and services bought in market basket of goods services available for and services purchased the UK for the purpose of and services of constant purchase in the economic for consumption by the consumption by all UK quality. The cost-of-territory of the Member States average households households, foreign visitors living concept is the for the purpose of directly in the urban and residents of institutional measurement objective satisfying consumer needs. areas throughout households. Prior to 10 Weighted average of the countryDecember 2003, the CPI was members states’HICPs published in the UK as the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices Coverage PopulationIncludes households All private UK households, All urban consumer units, All households, include with one to five persons,foreign visitors towhich represent about 87% expenditure by foreign visitors households’incomethe UK and residentsof the total population(“domestic concept”) and 3,000–60,000bahts of institutional expenditure by individuals per month (in 2002)households living in institutions, but exclude the expenditure by residents whilst in a foreign country GeographyUrban areas in All of the UK i.e. All urban areas of 2,500 Economic territory 37 provinces England, Scotland, or more population within (including Bangkok)Wales and the 50 states; excludes Northern Ireland U.S. territories

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MARIANNE COLLIN

ThailandUnited KingdomUnited StatesEurope All goods and services All monetary expenditure on Includes all consumption Private consumption except bought by the goods and services bought purchases by the gambling, lottery and life reference population within the domestic territory reference population; insurance for the purposes and covered by Household excludes gambling of consumption; Final Consumption and illegal activities expenditure on Expenditure (HHFCE) income tax, cash as defined for the UK’s gifts and donations National Accounts are excludedExcludedIncluded Excluded Included (rental (rental equivalence) equivalence) Arithmetic means of Geometric mean 61% geometric means Ratio of arithmetic mean or relative pricesof price relativesand 39% weighted ratio of geometric mean average of relative prices prices (⫽modified Laspeyres) Chained-LaspeyresChained-LaspeyresChained-LaspeyresChained-Laspeyres al Every 4 yearsEvery yearEvery 2yearsWeights must reflect the expenditure pattern in a period ending no more than seven years before the preceding December. Furthermore, each year a review of weights needs to be carried out, and weights have to be adjusted if

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PROCEEDINGS IFC WORKSHOP – SESSION 1

Cross-country Comparison : CPI (continued) ThailandUnited KingdomUnited StatesEurope the review indicates that change in the weights would affect the all-item HICP by more than 0.1 percentage points on average of one year against the previous year. Country weights for euro area HICPs are updated in annual intervals New productsEvery 4 yearsEvery year, as Each year (on a Each year, when new goods weight ⬎0.1% rotating basis)account for at least 1/1000 of of households’for 25% of the indexall expenditure, new goods consumer have to be included expenditures OutletsSeldom– Each year (on a No specific HICP standards, rotating basis)but HICPs are constructed for 25% of the indexfrom target samples which are representative, reliable and comparable ClassificationThe classification COICOPCOICOPCOICOP system corresponds to the household expenditure survey conducted by National Statistics Office (NSO) PeriodicityMonthlyMonthly indexMonthlyMonthly index

References

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