CEASEFIRE BY AMERICA AND RUSSIA IN SIRIYA CEASEFIRE BY AMERICA AND RUSSIA IN SIRIYA
HISTORY HISTORY
Ove
Over r the the yeayears, rs, UniUnited ted StatStates-Ses-Syriyrian an bilabilaterateral l relarelationtions s ranranged ged betwbetween een grugrudgindgingg mutual accommodation and outright mutual hostility. ut even when the relationshi! mutual accommodation and outright mutual hostility. ut even when the relationshi! was strained severely, the "undamental United States !olicy toward Syria with regard to was strained severely, the "undamental United States !olicy toward Syria with regard to the broader #rab-Israeli con"lict has remained consistent. The United States endorses the broader #rab-Israeli con"lict has remained consistent. The United States endorses United $ations Security %ouncil Resolution &'&, the im!lementation o" which would United $ations Security %ouncil Resolution &'&, the im!lementation o" which would entail the return o" the Israeli-anne(ed )olan Heights to Syrian control.
entail the return o" the Israeli-anne(ed )olan Heights to Syrian control.
*or its !art, Syria has o"ten vehemently critici+ed #merican !olicy in the iddle ast. #t *or its !art, Syria has o"ten vehemently critici+ed #merican !olicy in the iddle ast. #t the same time, however, it has recogni+ed that Resolution &'& contains !rovisions in its the same time, however, it has recogni+ed that Resolution &'& contains !rovisions in its "avor. Syria has been willing to negotiate with the United States over the #rab-Israeli "avor. Syria has been willing to negotiate with the United States over the #rab-Israeli con"lict and other regional issues, as long as the di!lomacy is conducted uietly and con"lict and other regional issues, as long as the di!lomacy is conducted uietly and behind the scenes. Syria has also adhered scru!ulously to the commitments and behind the scenes. Syria has also adhered scru!ulously to the commitments and !romises it has made to #merican negotiators. !romises it has made to #merican negotiators.
.In /une 0123, Syrian-United States relations im!roved dramatically when Syria .In /une 0123, Syrian-United States relations im!roved dramatically when Syria interceded on behal" o" the United States a"ter the hi4ac5ing to eirut o" Trans 6orld interceded on behal" o" the United States a"ter the hi4ac5ing to eirut o" Trans 6orld #irlines
#irlines "light 2'"light 2'7. Reaga7. Reagan e(!resn e(!ressed his sed his a!!reciata!!reciation o" Syion o" Syria8s role ria8s role in securin securing releaing releasese o" the hostages, albeit in guarded language. Yet to some observers Syria8s ability to o" the hostages, albeit in guarded language. Yet to some observers Syria8s ability to im!ose its will on the hi4ac5ers con"irmed Syrian lin5s to terrorism. #lthough Syria had im!ose its will on the hi4ac5ers con"irmed Syrian lin5s to terrorism. #lthough Syria had been accused re!eatedly o" su!!orting 9alestinian terrorism against #merican, 6est been accused re!eatedly o" su!!orting 9alestinian terrorism against #merican, 6est uro!ean, and Israeli targets in the iddle ast and in 6estern uro!e, there had been uro!ean, and Israeli targets in the iddle ast and in 6estern uro!e, there had been little evidence, much less !roo", o" direct Syrian com!licity in terrorist attac5s against little evidence, much less !roo", o" direct Syrian com!licity in terrorist attac5s against 6estern targets.
6estern targets.
However, when a /ordanian, $i+ar Hindawi, was a!!rehended on #!ril 07, 012:, a"ter However, when a /ordanian, $i+ar Hindawi, was a!!rehended on #!ril 07, 012:, a"ter attem!ting to smuggle a bomb aboard an Israeli l #l #irlines !lane in ;ondon, he attem!ting to smuggle a bomb aboard an Israeli l #l #irlines !lane in ;ondon, he con"essed that Syrian intelligence o""icers had masterminded the abortive attac5 and con"essed that Syrian intelligence o""icers had masterminded the abortive attac5 and
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that Syria had !rovided him with the training, logistical su!!ort, and e(!losives to carry 0out the !lot. ritain re!ortedly collected evidence that corroborated Hindawi8s story. #s a conseuence, on ay :, 012:, <ice 9resident )eorge ush said o" Syria, =6e are convinced their "inger!rints have been on international terrorist acts,= and on $ovember
0', 012:, the United States im!osed sanctions on Syria =in res!onse to Syria8s continued su!!ort "or international terrorism.= The 6hite House, however, also stated that =Syria can !lay an im!ortant role in a 5ey region o" the world, but it cannot e(!ect to be acce!ted as a res!onsible !ower or treated as one as long as it continues to use terrorism as an instrument o" its "oreign !olicy.>0?
In these statements, the United States censured Syria "or s!onsoring terrorism but also im!lied recognition o" Syria8s !otentially central role in the iddle ast. ven since Secretary o" State Henry @issinger8s "irst visit to Aamascus in Aecember 017B, #ssad has attem!ted to !ersuade successive #merican administrations o" the truth o" the old adage =There can be no war in the iddle ast without gy!t, but there can be no !eace in the iddle ast without Syria.= #ssad sought to convince the United States that Syria, however intransigent its negotiating stance, should not be ignored in any com!rehensive iddle ast !eace treaty because it could resume war with Israel and there"ore e(ert veto !ower over an #rab-Israeli settlement. #t the same time, however, #ssad was convinced that the United States was indis!ensable in any iddle ast
!eace because only the United States could "orce Israel to ma5e concessions to the #rabs.>&?
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%IC*IR S$RIO
It hardly shoo5 the universal belie" that the Syrian crisis is still very "ar "rom being solved. The !roblem is not 4ust that the memories are still "resh o" the !revious
cease"ire, which was bro5en right a"ter it was started in *ebruary this year. Today, as in *ebruary, behind the s!eeches o" di!lomats who are !utting on a brave "ace,
irreconcilable contradictions can be seen clearly. These again are being ignored by mutual consent, but they are no less dee! and real "or that.
The 5ey di""iculty that stands in the way o" sto!!ing the war in Syria is the barely calculable number o" !artici!ants to the con"lict. oreover, the current situation on the battle"ield is not satis"actory at all to any o" the sides involved.
Under these conditions, a cease"ire is really advantageous to all, not only in
humanitarian terms but also as a breathing s!ace to regrou! the "orces and !re!are "or a new !hase o" the con"lict, in which the !artici!ants ho!e to gain a decisive victory. The tragedy o" what is going on is that a victory o" one o" the sides accom!anied by a de"eat o" the other side - the classic scenario "or ending a war - seems !ractically im!ossible given the current realities o" the iddle ast.
One might wonder, what is so sur!rising and uniue about a war that is waged not by two or three but by a "ew do+en !artiesD Humanity has "aced such challenges in the !ast, and the involved !arties have always been able to, i" not settle a con"lict com!letely, at least alleviate it. The traditional a!!roach has been to create coalitions, reduce the mani"old, divergent interests to the struggle o" two or three sides, to be concluded by someoneEs victory. 9eace and a !ost-war di!lomatic settlement would then "ollow.
the U.S., which throughout the Syrian con"lict have o!enly su!!orted the !rinci!al warring !arties, the government o" the Syrian !resident, ashar #ssad, and the armed o!!osition, declare an intention to create a coalition to "ight the terrorists "rom the Islamic State o" Ira and the )reater Syria FISISG and /abhat *ateh al-Sham a"ter
se!arating those terrorists "rom the "ighters o" the government army and *ree Syrian #rmy.
$ever has any war ended as a result o" the !rinci!al o!!onents creating a coalition with each other. I" it is a coalition, it is a very !ost-modern one.
ven i" the terrorists are regarded as a "ull-"ledged third !arty to the con"lict Fthough how can they have such status while not having the su!!ort o" any o" the great !owersDG, a victory over them would not im!ly an end to the war but would only be a return to the "undamental con"rontation among Russia, the U.S., their Syrian sta5eholders, and the neighboring regional !owers.>?
Under the conditions where a decisive victory is im!ossible, the 5ey obstacle on the way to !eace is each sideEs desire to avoid de"eat. Russia, the U.S., Tur5ey, and even some o" the smaller !artici!ants o" the con"rontation can res!onsibly sayJ 6e cannot win, but we have enough military strength not to lose. The cease"ire, bitter as it is to admit that, is only one "orm o" sustaining that unstable and tragic balance.
rea5ing the vicious circle o" the Syrian crisis is hindered, among other things, by the system o" !olitical values that "ormed a"ter the end o" the %old 6ar K the very system that only recently was regarded as the most im!ortant !olitical achievement o" the !ast decades, evidence o" !rogress and the im!rovement o" morals.
The #merican view that the world inevitably "ollows the !ath o" widening "reedoms and democrati+ation is !itted against Russian ho!es "or the strengthening o" the !rinci!le o" national sovereignty. oth views loo5 "air in themselves, but once the world is "aced with
the necessity to settle a ma4or regional crisis, it turns out that the !rinci!les maintained by the great !owers do not hel!, but rather stand in the way, as they !revent the sides "rom using the tools that were em!loyed in similar situations in the !ast.
oth the conce!t o" democrati+ation and the conce!t o" sovereignty re4ect the old
colonial discourse according to which the large, strong !owers bore res!onsibility "or the "ate o" small, wea5 countries, de!endent territories and colonies. TodayEs common belie"
is that humanity has turned the !age and that there is no return to colonialism.
However, hundreds o" thousands o" Syrian war victims raise doubts about the truth o" that.
#lthough it is never admitted aloud, the U.S. and Russia can be seen to act more and more o!enly as classic colonial !owers. $o vocal ob4ections have been heard to the "ormat o" the )eneva negotiations, which did not !rovide "or any real re!resentation o"
SyriaEs #ssad, or the o!!osition, or even the regional !owers.>B?
The most im!ortant uestion today is whether the U.S. and Russia, which have ventured to ta5e res!onsibility "or the "uture o" Syria, can stri5e the right balance between their !olitical !rinci!les, national interests, and humanitarian considerations.
Un"ortunately, the "ate o" Syria "alls more and more in the hands o" non-regional
!owers, and there is no guarantee that "or Russia and the U.S., the !olitical !riority will be achieving !iece in the Syrian land, rather than, say, using war"are in Syria to in"lict indirect damage to each other in the conte(t o" %old 6ar &.L. In the latter case, which is, un"ortunately, more than li5ely, the new Syrian cease"ire will be as "ictional as all the !revious ones.>'?
The Syrian government and rebel grou!s continue to "ight "or !ositions on the eve o" the truce, the cessation o" hostilities seems doomed to "ailure. Some o" the most contentious issues seem to have been !ushed to the bac5 burner by U.S., while a number o" sta5eholders, including Iran, were not !art o" the tal5s in )eneva.
#ll o" this "urther reduces the chances "or success. $either Russia nor the U.S. has any "alse illusions about the agreement, but arguably the cease"ire negotiated in )eneva may be the closest the world has been to !eace in Syria in the last "ive years.>3?
* BIBLIOGRAPHY II$TR$T SOUR%S www.economicstimes.com www.russi!"irect.or# www.stte#ic!cu$ture.or# • www.countr%stu"ies.us
* +UR+ /ARMAIN,’ CEASEFIRE IN SIRI+A-www.russia-dire!."r# S+RIA-RE0ATION ,’www."u&!rs!udies.us
W2+ US 2AS TO KI00 S+RIA,’www.s!a!e#i-u3!ure."r#
