EFFECT OF IMPERVIOUS SURFACE ON PEAK DISCHARGE AND RUNOFF VOLUME
MOHD EIZAM BIN YUSOF
A project report submitted in partial fulfilment o f the requirements for the award o f the degree of
M aster o f Engineering (Civil)
School o f Civil Engineering Faculty o f Engineering Universiti Teknologi Malaysia
DEDICATION
This project report is dedicated to my father, who taught me that the best kind of knowledge to have is that which is learned for its own sake. It is also dedicated to my
mother, who taught me that even the largest task can be accomplished if it is done one step at a time. M y beloved wife and children for strength, moral support and to
all my family for willingness guide me to complete this thesis.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
In preparing this project report, I was in contact with many people, researchers, academicians, and practitioners. They have contributed towards my understanding and thoughts. In particular, I wish to express my sincere appreciation to my main master project supervisor, Dr. Noraliani binti Alias, for encouragement, guidance, critics and friendship. I am also very thankful to my panel Dr. Shamila binti Azman and Dr. Mohamad Hidayat bin Jamal for their guidance, advices and motivation. W ithout their continued support and interest, this project report would not have been the same as presented here.
I am also indebted to Dr. Lim Foo Huat, Mr. Marcus Yang Hai Hwee and Ms. Nurul Hidayah binti Ruslan from Angkasa Consulting Services Sdn. Bhd for sharing information and guidance for successful o f the hydrological model o f this study. I am also wish thanks to all personnel from Department o f Irrigation and Drainage Malaysia especially Ir. Roslina binti Yusop, Mr. Roslan bin Sukimin, Mr. Mohammad Hafiz bin Kamaluddin, Mr. Abu Salim bin Abd Aziz and Mr. Mohd Syhrizan bin M at Ghani for providing the hydrological data regarding with this project report. I also would like to thanks the Public Service Department o f Malaysia for their financial support.
M y fellow postgraduate student should also be recognised for their support. M y sincere appreciation also extends to all my colleagues and others who have provided assistance at various occasions. Their views and tips are useful indeed. Unfortunately, it is not possible to list all o f them in this limited space. I am grateful to all my family member mostly my wife, Nuraida binti Sanin and children, Harith Eimran, Hezrey Eizlan, Lily and Hanash Eilhami for their support and encouragement.
ABSTRACT
Urbanization processes increase the area o f impervious surface in a catchment due to alteration o f pervious surface. As a result, the urbanization processes will affect the rainfall-runoff process as higher surface runoff volume will be generated. Therefore, this study was carried in order to determine peak discharge and runoff volume for Golok River Basin. In this study HEC-HMS hydrological engineering modelling was used to simulate the rainfall-runoff process o f Golok River basin. In order to compute peak discharge and runoff volume, the initial and constant rate, Snyder’s Synthetic unit hydrograph, constant monthly base flow and Muskingum routing were chosen. The model parameters were calibrated using 1981 historical major events observed streamflow data. Calibrated model parameters was validated by using 1982 historical major events observed streamflow data. A statistical test for hydrological model efficiency, Nash and Sutcliffe (NSE) was employed to check the efficiency o f calibration and validation process. The results found that values o f NSE o f 0.681 and 0.643 for calibration and validation respectively. The model calibration was found to be good and meanwhile it was satisfactory for validation. Calibrated and validate parameters then were used to determine the peak discharge and runoff volume for 5, 10, 50 and 100 years Average Recurrence Interval (ARI) for different percentage o f impervious surface. The simulation results were then compared to the 2003 peak discharge and runoff volume. The result o f this study proved that peak discharge and runoff volume of Golok River basin were increased as the impervious surface increased.
ABSTRAK
Proses pembandaran meningkatkan kawasan permukaan telap dalam satu kawasan tadahan disebabkan oleh perubahan peningkatan pada permukaan tak tedap. Oleh yang demikian, proses pembandaran menyebabkan proses air larian terjejas hasil daripada isipadu air larian permukaan yang tinggi. Lantaran itu, kajian ini dijalankan bagi menentukan puncak luahan dan isipadu air larian untuk kawasan tadahan Sungai Golok. Dalam kajian ini model kejuruteraan HEC-HMS telah digunakan bagi menjalankan proses simulasi hubungan antara hujan dan air larian di kawasan tadahan Sungai Golok. Bagi mengira puncak luahan dan isipadu air larian, kaedah awalan dan kadar malar, unit hidrograf sintetik Snyder, aliran dasar malar bulanan dan kaedah Muskingum routing telah dipilih. Parameter model telah dikalibrasi menggunakan data cerapan luahan tahun 1981. Parameter yang telah dikalibrasi kemudiannya melalui proses validasi menggunakan data cerapan luahan tahun 1982. Ujian statistik Nash-Sutcliffe (NSE) telah digunakan bagi menilai kecekapan model terhadap proses kalibrasi dan validasi. Hasil ujian statistik NSE menunjukkan nilai 0.681 bagi proses kalibrasi dan 0.643 bagi proses validasi. Proses kalibrasi model didapati baik dam proses validasi adalah memuaskan. Parameter model yang telah melalui proses kalibrasi dan validasi digunakan untuk menentukan puncak luahan dan isipadu air larian bagi Average Recurrence Interval (ARI) 5, 10, 50 dan 100 untuk permukaan kedap yang berbeza. Hasil simulasi model dibandingkan dengan hasil simulasi puncak luahan dan isipadu air larian bagi tahun 2003. Hasil kajian ini membuktikan puncak luahan dan isipadu air larian meningkat apabila permukaan telap bertambah.
TABLE OF CONTENTS TITLE PAGE DECLARATION iii DEDICATION iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENT v ABSTRACT vi ABSTRAK vii
TABLE OF CONTENTS viii
LIST OF TABLES xi
LIST OF FIGURES xii
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS xiii
LIST OF SYMBOLS xiv
LIST OF APPENDICES xv CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 Background 1 1.2 Problem Statement 1 1.3 Objective o f Study 1 1.4 Scope o f Study 2 1.5 Significance o f Study 2 1.6 Structure o f Thesis 3 1.6.1 Chapter One 3 1.6.2 Chapter Two 3 1.6.3 Chapter Three 3 1.6.4 Chapter Four 4 1.6.5 Chapter Five 4
CHAPTER 2 LITERATURE REVIEW 5
2.1 Hydrological Cycle 5
2.1.1 Precipitation 6
7 8 8 9 9 10 12 12 13 13 13 14 15 15 15 16 16 17 18 19 21 27 27 27 30 30 32 37 38 42 46 2.1.2 Types o f Precipitation 2.1.3 Measurement o f Precipitation Rainfall Data Analysis
2.2.1 Determination o f Missing Data 2.2.2 Determination o f Areal Rainfall Frequency Analysis Flood Types o f Flood 2.5.1 River Floods 2.5.2 Regional Floods 2.5.3 Localized Floods 2.5.4 Coastal Floods 2.5.5 Urban Floods
2.5.6 Rural and Agriculture Floods 2.5.7 Flash Floods
Flood Factors
2.6.1 Natural Causes
2.6.2 Human Induced Floods Hydrology Modeling
Model Calibration andValidation
Hydrological Modeling System HEC-HMS
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY Introduction
Study Area Data Collection
3.3.1 Catchment Data and Characteristic 3.3.2 Hydrological Data
Model Data Requirement and Configuration 3.4.1 Catchment Demarcation
3.4.2 HEC-HMS Hydrological Calculations Methods
HEC-HMS Model Calibration and Validation
3.6 Impact o f Impervious Surface with Different ARI 47
CHAPTER 4 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 53
4.1 Introduction 53
4.2 HEC-HMS Model Calibration and Validation Results 53 4.3 Effect o f Impervious Surface for Different ARI 57
4.3.1 5 years ARI 57
4.3.2 10 Years ARI 59
4.3.3 50 Years ARI 59
4.3.4 100 Years ARI 60
4.3.5 Summary 61
CHAPTER 5 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS 65
5.1 Introduction 65
5.2 Conclusions 65
5.3 Recommendations 67
REFERENCES 69
22 23 24 25 34 35 36 37 40 42 43 45 46 47 48 50 55 56 LIST OF TABLES TITLE
Hydrological Elements Description (USACE, 2013) Sub-basin and Reach Calculation M ethod (USACE, 2013)
Description o f Meteorological Model Methods (USACE, 2013)
Input Data Components (USACE, 2013)
Summary o f Rainfall Station and Maximum Daily Rainfall Record
W ater Level Station at Golok River Basin Streamflow Station at Golok River Basin Evaporation Station at Golok River Basin Characteristic o f Golok River basin
Hydrological Method Applied to Golok River Basin using HEC-HMS
Percentage o f impervious values for each sub catchment in Golok River Basin
Design base flow for Golok River sub-catchments Calibration parameter constraint for Muskingum Routing
NSE Performance Indicator Rating (Krause et al.) Summary o f daily maximum, total rainfall in 61 days at Golok River Basin and annual maximum discharge at Sg. Golok at Rantau Panjang Streamflow Station
Total peak rainfall (mm) for 61 days in various return period
Details o f Golok River hydrograph o f calibration and validation process
Calibrated HEC-HMS model parameters for all sub basins o f Golok River Basin
5 14 14 16 27 28 31 32 33 39 41 51 54 54 58 LIST OF FIGURES TITLE
Hydrological Cycle (climateofindia.pbworks.com) Flooding at Gua Musang, Kelantan in 2014 (DID, 2019)
During and after coastal flooding at Ban Sg. Apong, 2016 (DID 2019)
Flash flood at Jalan Duta on 15 May 2016 (DID, 2019) Flowchart o f research methodology
Golok River Basin
Topography map o f study area
Land-use o f Golok River Basin, DID (2010)
Hydrological Stations within Golok River Basin (DID, 2013)
Sub-catchment demarcation and HEC-HMS junction network with respect to river confluence
HEC-HMS Basin model for Golok River Basin Inverse Distance W eighing estimating method
Graphical result o f observed and simulation hydrograph o f Golok River at streamflow station Sg. Golok at Rantau Panjang for calibration process
Graphical result o f observed and simulation hydrograph of Golok River at streamflow station Sg. Golok at Rantau Panjang for validation process
ARI 5 year peak discharge with different impervious %
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ADAB ARI DID HEC-DSS HEC-HMS HEC-RAS hr IDW JUPEM KESBAN km km2 m mm m3 m3/s NSE SCS USACE USGS
Australian Development Assistant Bureau Average Recurrence Interval
Department o f Irrigation and Drainage
Hydrological Engineering Centre-Data Storage System Hydrological Engineering Centre-Hydrological Modeling System
Hydrological Engineering Centre-River Analysis System hour
Inverse Distance Weighted
Jabatan Ukur dan Pemetaan M alaysia Keselamatan dan Pembangunan kilometer
square kilometre meter
millimetre cubic meter
cubic meter per second Nash and Sutcliffe Efficiency
Soil Conservation Services
United States Army o f Civil Engineer United States o f Geological Survey
LIST OF SYMBOLS ro - Infinity E - Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency R - Coefficient o f determination d - Index o f agreement O - Observed values P - Predicted values xiv
LIST OF APPENDICES
APPENDIX Appendix A
TITLE
Sg. Golok At Rantau Panjang Observed Discharge Data
PAGE 72
CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background
M alaysia is known as a tropical country that has an equatorial climate with a constant high temperature and high relative humidity. Department o f Irrigation and Drainage Malaysia, DID (2012) reported that the annual average rainfall is 2,500 mm for Peninsular Malaysia, 2,560 mm for Sabah, and 3,640 mm for Sarawak. The east coast of Peninsular Malaysia and the coastal regions o f Sabah and Sarawak recorded the heaviest precipitation.
According to DID (2009), there are 189 river systems in Malaysia, which flow directly to the sea; 89 are located in Peninsular Malaysia, 78 in Sabah, and 22 in Sarawak. 85 o f them are prone to frequent flooding. In general, all states in Malaysia experienced flooding in the year 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2017 (DID, 2018). In the year 2016 and 2017, Selangor experienced the most frequent flood with a total o f 115 flood events, while Perlis was the least affected by only 2 cases.
Besides, DID (2018) also defines floods as frequent occurrences and common natural disasters that can cause property damage and even loss o f life. Flooding can occur due to various factors such as heavy rainfall, high tide, obstruction in the drainage system, and shallow river problems. Also, rapid development and uncontrolled human activities can have a significant influence on urban flooding, at the same time, worsening the flood disaster.
1.2 Problem Statement
Kelantan is one o f the states that frequently experiences floods particularly, during the Northeast M onsoon season from November to Mac. According to Aminah et al., (2016), Sungai Nenggiri, Sungai Galas, Sungai Pergau, Sungai Kelantan, Sungai Golok, Sungai Kemasin, Sungai Pengkalan Chepa, Sungai Pengkalan Datu, and Sungai Semerak are the flood-prone rivers in Kelantan. Golok River, for instance, experienced severe flooding in 2011 and 2012, in areas o f Rantau Panjang (DID, 2013).
According to DID (2013), Rantau Panjang streamflow station recorded a 10m increase in water level as a result o f heavy rainfall with high intensity, exceeding the flood danger level at 9.0m. In order to minimize property damage and loss o f life caused by flooding at Golok River, a study on the hydrological characteristic o f the river catchment need to be done. The hydrological models such as rainfall-runoff models can be carried out by using open sources software such as Hydrologic Engineering Centre-Hydrological Modeling System (HEC-HMS) developed by the United States o f Army Corps o f Engineers (USACE).
Therefore, this study is carried out, in order to investigate the impact of different percentages o f impervious surface for different average recurrence interval (ARI).
1.3 Objective of Study
The main objectives o f this study are listed as follows:
1. To develop a Golok River basin hydrological model using HEC-HMS.
2. To calibrate and validate the observed and simulation hydrograph from Golok River basin hydrological model.
3. To estimate peak discharge, runoff volume with different percentages of impervious surface with different years ARI.
1.4 Scope of Study
The main scope o f this study is to estimate the peak discharge and runoff volume using HEC-HMS hydrological model for Golok River basin. This study also involved the calibration and validation process o f the model to ensure it is reliable and accurate. The model then used to simulate various scenario o f events using 5%, 10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, 50% and actual land-use impervious surface percentages with 5, 10, 50 and 100 years ARI.
Since the river basin is shared between Malaysia and Thailand, it is hard to get sufficient data from Thailand, particularly the catchment characteristics and hydraulic and hydrological data. As a result, the selected data for this study were obtained solely from the DID, Malaysia.
1.5 Significance of Study
The significance o f this study is the application o f open-source software for rainfall-runoff modelling o f the selected river basin to predict the peak discharge and runoff volume for different events and scenarios. The results from this study can be utilized by DID Malaysia for flood forecasting. Flood forecasting system can be integrated with an early warning system for evacuation planning o f residents in flood-affected areas.
This study can also be beneficial for local government in terms o f planning and monitoring the land development and agriculture activities at the selected river basin. A proper plan and monitoring system will guarantee integrated and holistic
management o f the Golok River basin, which can ensure sufficient existing resources for future development along the Golok River basin.
1.6 Structure of Thesis
This study o f rainfall-runoff modeling is categorized accordingly by chapters. It consists o f five research structures from chapter one until chapter five.
1.6.1 Chapter One
The first chapter explained the outline o f the study. This chapter gave a brief explanation o f the study background, objectives o f study, scope o f study and the significant o f the study.
1.6.2 Chapter Two
The second chapter explained how factual information has supported this study. It consists o f the literature review and theoretical frameworks that have been done by others. This chapter also explained the viewpoints o f other authors regarding the study area in general and presented their particular perspective in a logical manner.
1.6.3 Chapter Three
The third chapter discussed the methodology o f this research work. It explained the study process and issued existing problems faced in the research philosophy. Moreover, this chapter contained the study frameworks and methods for the data collection.
1.6.4 Chapter Four
This chapter defined the results from the simulation modelling o f this study and were presented in a graphical and data tabulation. The result o f simulation was categorized in different percentages o f impervious with different years o f ARI.
The chapter also comprised o f the discussion o f the results and analysis. This chapter played a critical role by complying every objectives outlined in the beginning o f this study.
1.6.5 Chapter Five
The last chapter concluded all the work and summarized the level of achievement based on the objectives o f this study. The conclusion acknowledged the limitations o f the study and proposed future studies according to limitation addressed.
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