System of systems thinking in product System of development: development: A system dynamic dynamic approach

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System of systems thinking in product

development: A system dynamic approach

Alemu Moges Belay University of Vaasa, Finland University of Vaasa, Finland

SoSE 2012 Italy Genoa SoSE 2012 Italy Genoa

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Content

Introduction Introduction The challenges The challenges Introduction Introduction

lliterature and methodologyiterature and methodology Objectives and

Objectives and keytermskeyterms

gy gy

Model and findings Model and findings

jj yy

Conclusion Conclusion

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Introduction



Companies want to sell their products faster have a



Companies want to sell their products faster, have a

bigger market share and obtain a sound profit.



Decisions that are made at early design stage

ec s o s

a a e

ade a ea y des g s age

during product development have a significant

impacts on direct and indirect PD related activities

p

and costs.



This is extended to the project time and cost overrun

problem that is mainly due to design changes

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The challenges



Thinking of a complex product and its development

ith

l

t

b

t

d

ith

process with several systems, subsystems and with

higher interdependencies and interactions.

 How firms can achieve Speed/Time to market?p

 Is concurrent engineering enough?

 How to manage and analyze this complexity?

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literature and methodology

gy



One of the methods that help to understand the



One of the methods that help to understand the

tradeoffs in the PD process is dynamic simulation.

W

t

d

i

h b

i

th



We use system dynamics approach by assuming the

complex product development in light of SoSE. And

develop conceptual representation towards SoSE

develop conceptual representation towards SoSE.



J. W. Forrester in 1960’s developed the idea of (SD)

d (S

2000) d

l

d

h

and (Sterman 2000), developed a theory to approach

complex systems, non-linearity, and with several

feedback loops of information in a system

feedback loops of information in a system.



Marujo, LG (2009) applied in the rework impact

evaluation in the overlapped PD schedule and its aim

was to reduce the lead-time of activities.

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Objective

j



This paper wants to see the overall effect of the CE



This paper wants to see the overall effect of the CE

concept in terms of cost and lead time.



Besides to that analyze marketing as a separate

system in product development processes.



This is to show the challenges of controlling even a

i

l

t

l t

l

li

t d

single

system

let

alone

several

complicated

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Terms in SoSE



System:

system is an integrated set of elements that

accomplish a defined objective (INCOSE, 2000).



System Engineering:

y

g

is an interdisciplinary approach or

p

y pp

a structured, disciplined, and documented technical

effort to simultaneously design and develop systems

products and processes to satisfy the needs of the

customer (DoD, Version 1. 2006).

SE some how overlap with CE

S SE

(D D V

i

1 2006) i

t



SoSE:

(DoD, Version 1. 2006) is a set or arrangement

of systems that results when independent and useful

systems are integrated into a larger system that

delivers unique capabilities.

both SoSE and LPD in which we would like to analyze

y

with system dynamics in this study.



Understanding

and

using

lean

principle

rewards



Understanding

and

using

lean

principle

rewards

remarkable benefits and helps to manage and control

the large and complex systems.



Lane and Valerdi (2010) showed the manifestation of

lean principles in the SoSE and give their insight that

SoSE teams are using lean concepts whether or not

they are aware of it.

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Effects of Design change on cost

g



In PD change may happen in any stages and the



In PD, change may happen in any stages and the

ultimate cost required may vary accordingly.



As the change goes later the total cost will go higher



As the change goes later, the total cost will go higher

and that affects the profit and time to market.

When design changes are made Costs

During design $1000

During design testing $10,000 During process planningg p p g $100,000, During test production $1,000,000 During final production $10,000,000 Typical cost of design changes in major electronics (Port et.al, 1990)

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Effects of Design change on cost

g



Andersen (2008) presented that by the time a



Andersen (2008), presented that by the time a

product is designed 80% of the cost, by the time a

product goes into production 95% of its cost is

determined.



Similarly,

y,

(Siemens

(

PLM

Software,

,

2011),

),

recognizes that decisions made at an early stage in

the product lifecycle account for 90 percent of a

product’s costs

.

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The SD model



Based on Andersen (2008) and cost growth due to



Based on Andersen (2008), and cost growth due to

late decision we follow the growth function and re

write the governing equation as:



we also consider Prasad (1997) idea to calculate

the revenue loss from the S-curve analogy.

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Parameters of SD model for marketing

g

 System dynamics model based on the basic marketing theory is developed and simulated

theory is developed and simulated.

 Introduction, growth, maturity and decline

 Potential customers, available customers, advertisment

(no Talkers per customer) percentage of satisfied customers (no. Talkers per customer), percentage of satisfied customers, demand, buying.

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Findings and implication

g

p

 Findings from CE

Concurrent Sequential

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Findings

g

 Findings from marketing

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Findings

g

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Findings

g

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Conclusions

 The paper tries to show the relevance of SoSE approach in  The paper tries to show the relevance of SoSE approach in product development by considering the challenges and benefits in some parts of complex system

 The marketing is treated as a system and the challenge is explained in the model that invites SoSE approach in complex product development processes. Knowing the amount of customers will be an input for the PD processes

 For example the savings from CE and the challenges of managing marketing.

 As a limitation we considered only few parameters and analyze only marketing and CE aspect. The furure work will be analyze each parts of the PD and develop the model that be analyze each parts of the PD and develop the model that show the the interactions in whole systems using SoSE.

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System of systems thinking in product System of development: development: A system dynamic dynamic approach