Weekly News
29 August 2014
AGENDA
REGULATION & POLICYEgypt’s PM aims to tackle power cuts as priority 3
IEA calls for improved finance options for clean power technology 3 MARKETS
Eko plans to grow capacity by 20% per year until 2020 4
PTT to launch $251m IPO for Thai power generation arm 4
U.S. gas capacity factor of 70% requires pipeline
expansion 6
Dynegy to buy 5,053 MW of gas-fired capacity 6 PROJECTS & FINANCE
TVA to build $975 million Memphis gas plant 7
MCS approves 549 MW Moundsville gas plant 7
SEC to add 4,750 MW gas power
capacity by 2017
India approves steps toward gas price pooling
State-owned Saudi Electricity Co (SEC)
claims it will bring 4,750 MW of gas-fired
power generating capacity online in Riyadh
by 2017. The additions will come from
three plants – the 1,150 MW PP10 plant
and the PP13 and PP14 plants that each
generate 1,800 MW.
The Indian government has approved relief measures designed
to improve the availability of gas supply for power plants via
its Administered Pricing Mechanism (APM). A financial package
worth $19.7 billion will aim to support gas price pooling and
reduce gas shortages.
T
he Indian government has approved relief measures designed to improve the availabilityof gas supply for power plants via its Administered Pricing Mechanism (APM). A financial package worth $19.7 billion will
aim to support gas price pooling and reduce gas shortages.
The Ministry of Power will now evaluate the impact of variosu gas price pooling projects and possible ways to meet any arising revenue gap.
Pricing reforms to plug
chronic supply shortage
India has suffered from chronic gas shortages as the country seeks to balance demand with disparate pricing structures. Domestic gas supplies are heavily subsidised for power producers but this hasF
ront-runner PP10 is scheduled for commissioning in May 2015,while the PP13 and PP14 power plants due to start operations in August 2017.
Freeing oil up for exports through switch to gas power
The plant projects are part of SEC’s wider strategy to add a total of 40 GW of capacity to the Saudi power grid by 2023 at a cost of $166 billion. The utility has accelerated construction of gas-fired plants and recently commissioned 1,740 MW from its PP12 plant, to bring its total generating capacity to 61,625 MW.This move is in line with the government’s aim to double capacity in the Saudi kingdom by 2020 as it plans to replace current oil-fired plants and free up crude for export. Aramco, the state run oil company,
continued on page 2
continued on page 2
Indian gas prices show wide disparity. Source: IEA
The power network in Saudi Arabia is set to receive a major boost from new additions
29 August 2014
2
SEC to add continued from page 1
reduced the incentive for oil and gas firms to supply the sector and hence created supply shortages.
Independent Power Producers (IPPs) have lobbied for domestic and imported gas prices to be pooled helping to soften the disparity between Indian and global market prices. It is hoped this move will help re-start power plants that are currently unable to generate due to shortage of fuel.
India has total gas-based power capacity of 24,149 MW that will be affected by the new moves.
Imports on the rise to
meet gas power demand
The move to pool gas prices comes as gas demand for power generation in India is driving a record dependence on gas imports. Imports now account for about 29% of India’s 2.1 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of gas consumption, mostly sourced from Qatar through long-term contracts, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.India has seen natural gas consumption in the power sector rise rapidly since 2004, when
it first started LNG imports. The country is now ranked as the fourth-largest LNG importer following Japan, South Korea, and China in 2013, according to EIA figures.
“Natural gas mainly serves as a substitute for coal in electricity generation and as an alternative for liquefied petroleum gas and other petroleum products in fertilizer production and other sectors in India,” Candace Dunn, principal contributor at EIA said.
Imported fossil fuels accounted for 38% of energy use in the country in 2012 the EIA states. n
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India approves risk continued from page 1 can fetch $100 per barrel of crude at export
compared to around just $4 if sold to Saudi power plants and hence can generate more profit if power plants run on gas.
The PP13 plant will be located at Dhurma, while the PP10 and PP14 plants will be located at the same site, south of Riyadh.
Saudi grid prepares to add 20
GW by 2020
Not only is Saudi Arabia seeing a boom in gas-fired power but overall electricity demand is also soaring. The country currently has some of the highest per capita electricity consumption levels in the world.
The kingdom’s Electricity and
Cogeneration Regulatory Authority (ECRA) estimates that Saudi Arabia’s per capita
consumption in 2013 was double the average level worldwide, with Saudi citizens using a staggering 35 MW per hour per head of population on average. Despite government intentions to double capacity by 2020, ECRA is more cautious and
reported that total capacity increasing from 61 GW currently to 85 GW by 2020. Reserve margins are expected to remain
healthy forecast to reach 15% in 2020, providing plenty of capacity relative to a peak maximum power load of 72 GW. n
It is hoped that gas price pooling will make fuel costs more manageable for Indian power plant operators
GTP
Journal
G
as-fired power generation is increasingly linked to renewable growth in most markets the report states, as it provides a low pollution means of balancing intermittent load.Governments to ‘think like
investors’ to raise $44 trillion in
financing
The ETP report calls for governments around the world to ‘think like investors’ in order to raise an estimated $44 trillion needed in clean energy technology to meet targets by 2050.
“To reassure investors, governments may need to spread related risks and associated costs to taxpayers and consumers. Governments need to become more transparent when using such support mechanisms,” the report states.
Low-carbon technology has primarily been driven by support schemes, such as feed-in tariffs, output-based subsidies and quota systems but the IEA suggests these mechanisms may no longer be relevant.
It is estimated that efficiency savings could produce over $115 trillion in fuel
savings. Inefficiency in many plants means that electricity production uses on average just 40% of primary energy and yet produces an equal share of energy-related CO2 emissions as other energy usages.
“Electricity is going to play a defining role in the first half of this century as the energy carrier that increasingly powers economic growth and development,” Maria van der Hoeven, executive director of the IEA said.
Gas power is key transitional fuel
Gas-fired power was identifiedas a “key transitional fuel” for economies in the move to cleaner energy by the IEA but the organisation warns that deployment of new technologies such as CCS must be hastened.
“Natural gas can, in the short term, play a dual role of replacing coal and supporting integration of variable renewable energy sources. But in the medium to
longer term, gas must be seen for what it is: a transitional fuel, not a low-carbon solution unless it is coupled with CCS,” Maria van der Hoeven, executive director of the IEA said.
The role of natural gas as a fuel for power production was scrutinized as part of long term IEA data that showed progress towards clean energy targets is slower than previously expected. The ETP 2014 outlines a number of scenarios for future emissions and climate change along with steps to avoid a potential 2°C rise due to carbon dioxide. n
Egypt’s PM aims to tackle power cuts as priority
IEA calls for improved finance options for clean power technology
“M
aybe starting from nextSunday there will be gradual improvement, and it will be a noticeable improvement,” Mahlab said. “By the end of August, God willing, we will have saved 50% of the electricity we have lost.”
Electricity ministry aims for 1,300
MW additions by October
The Egyptian electricity ministry has previously announced plans to add 1,300 MW of gas-fired capacity by the end of October through the commissioning of two new 650 MW units at the Ain Sokhna power station. Policy makers in Egypt face a difficult balancing act as rising power demand coincides with falling revenues from natural gas exports.
The situation is made worse by entrenched subsidies that the government is keen to cut in order to reduce mounting debt. The 2014/15 budget outlined cuts to fuel subsidies intended to save the government $69 billion, but these have been fiercely opposed.
New capacity additions are meant to remedy the risk of blackout that looms large due outdated grid networks and limited and unstable capacity, which totalled 29,809 MW in 2012. More than a quarter of Egypt’s
gas-fired capacity is over 20 years old and not designed to cope with rapid demand peaks, so a large portion of the population does not have access to reliable power.
Blackouts prioritised in near term
The severity of recent power shortages have forced the government to prioritise availability of electricity over price hikes as they cannot be seen to allow new capacity to sit idle due to envisaged price hikes of as much as 175%.“There will be some inflationary repercussions, [but] a rise in gas prices to a market price is necessary,” said Angus Blair, chairman of forecasting think-tank Signet.
The cost of modernizing existing power generation capacity, building new plants and upgrading the power transmission grid is estimated to be between $4 billion and $5 billion, according to Egypt’s energy ministry. n
Finance for low carbon power generation technology needs to be accelerated in order to prevent global temperature rises, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). The organisation’s Energy Technology Perspectives 2014 (ETP 2014) publication calls for new financial instruments to be developed to help minimise risks for investors in new technology.
The Egyptian prime minister Ibrahim Mahlab has urged operators to make more electricity supply available as a prioirty, as public resentment builds against the government over blackouts lasting up to eight hours per day in some regions amid blazing temperatures of up to 40°C.
Egypt’s prime minister Ibrahim Mahlab
Source: IEA
“G
PSC will be ready for the IPO in the first quarter. The company is in the process of selecting independent directors,” said Surong Bulakul, chief operating officer for PTT’s infrastructure business.Capital required to fund expansion
The share sell-off is part of PTT’s long term plans that will see the company restructure its energy-related infrastructure assets and spin-off its gas pipeline business. PTT said it plans to use the investment it raises not only to increase capacity in its native Thailand but also to expand operations in Southeast Asia.Bulakul also suggested that the firm was studying possibilities to invest in power plants in Myanmar and Australia.
The IPO will be arranged by the financial advisory firms of KT Zmico Securities, Finansia
Syrus Securites and Tisco Securities. GPSC is a joint venture between PTT and subsidiaries PTT Global Chemical Pcl and Thai Oil.
Investors wary, await 2015
elections
Although PTT’s power generation division is undoubtedly of significant strategic worth, many foreign investors remain wary following the coup in May this year that saw the military take control
of all state assets. The introduction of martial law has, at least temporarily, brought about the end of political, and occasionally violent, conflict.
A surge in IPOs has been witnessed in recent months and the new government’s plans to liberalise the country’s gas pipeline and power sectors have been broadly welcomed but the long term security of investments still remains uncertain.
“The more stable political situation is generally good news for companies and investors,” Prasert Patradhilok, president of consultancy Advisory Plus said. “The IPO window is opening and the momentum should continue, until the election risk late next year.”
To drive competition and ensure access to supply PTT will spin off its pipeline network and related assets such as an LNG receiving terminal to a new entity, according to a statement from the National Energy Policy Council (NEPC). n
T
hese ‘phase-1 plan six facilities’ have been developed along with the National Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC).Eko backs embedded generation
Eko currently receives between 200 MW and 300 MW on a daily basis, even though its network is designed to take capacity of 1,000 MW. As a result, the company is now planning to tender for smaller-scale embedded generation projects that will suffer less from losses by being located close to demand.The distribution company is close to signing deals for the development of several small plants including a 60 MW plant in Orile, a 20 MW plant in Kirikiri, a 50 MW plant in Agbara, a 20 MW plant in Apapa and 10 MW plants in both Lekki and Victoria Island.
Discos under pressure for lack of
supply
Distribution companies (Discos) in Nigeria have been widely blamed for power shortages in the country despite having only partial control of supply. Despite sitting on huge gas reserves, the county’s dilapidated pipeline network means many plants do not receive sufficient gas.
“The distribution companies are not to blame, the generation companies generates electricity and supply to the Discos, the generating companies don’t have gas to generate,” stressed Benjamin Ezra Dikki, director general of the Nigerian Bureau of Public Enterprises (BPE). Earlier this month, the Nigerian government was forced to admit that its target of 6,000 MW capacity in the country by December was too high and revised its goal down to 5,000 MW due to lack of supply.
NERC supports market driven power
sector
Regulator NERC has been closely involved in reshaping the Nigerian power sector with recent approval for a new benchmark price of $2.50 per mcf for gas supply and $0.80/mcf as transportation cost for new capacity from 2014.
“In the short term, it is anticipated that this will quickly boost gas supply and in turn power output. In the medium to long term, this new price regime should trigger additional investment in the infrastructure for gas to power,” said Diezani Alison-Madueke, Nigeria’s Minister of Petroleum Resources.
Following the breakup of the state-run Power Holding Company of Nigeria (PHCN)
in late 2013, the sector has drawn growing interest from the private sector but more still needs to be done to prevent frequent blackouts in the country. Earlier this year, the Nigerian government introduced its “export-parity pricing” scheme for natural gas sales in the country in a bid to boost output from gas-fired power plants by 2016.
“We have developed additional interventions that will address outstanding issues,” Alison-Madueke said. “It is expected that barring unforeseen developments, these interventions will add at least 370 million mcf/d of gas and assure a generation capacity of at least 5,000 MW within four to five months.” n
Eko plans to grow capacity by 20% per year until 2020
PTT to launch $251m IPO for Thai power generation arm
Nigerian electricity distribution company Eko plans to increase power generation from its network by 20% each year until 2020, to reach 1,000 MW. Eko is currently in discussions to sign power purchase agreements (PPA) that will underpin investment for six small scale power plants with capacity of 170 MW. Deals are expected to be signed in the fourth quarter of 2014.
Thailand’s state-run energy firm PTT plans to sell shares in its power generation division Global Power Synergy Co (GPSC) via an initial public offering in the first quarter of 2015. The sale is hoped to raise $251.18 million that will be used to boost the firm’s generating capacity from 1,800 MW to 6,000MW.
Nigerian distribution networks have struggled to meet demand due to lack of gas
PTT will sell shares in its power assets such as the 700 MW GPSC-IPP-1 plant
29 August 2014
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T
he portfolio from Duke includes its power plants at Killen, Stuart, Conesville, Miami Fort, Zimmer, Hanging Rock, Washington, Fayette, Lee and Dicks Creek. The ECP assets include Milford, Lake Road, Dighton, Masspower, Liberty,Elwood, Richland, Stryker, Kincaid and Brayton Point.Operating costs to fall 34% to $1.10/
MWh
The deals are expected to help reduce overhead costs for Dynegy as it consolidates its position in the power generation sector. The company states that operating costs are expected to fall by 34% to $1.10 per MWh of electricity produced.
“The addition of these portfolios is forecasted to significantly improve our financial outlook by tripling our 2015 Adjusted EBITDA and being massively accretive to Adjusted EBITDA and Free Cash Flow per share in 2015 and beyond,” Robert C. Flexon, president of Dynegy said.
Improved financial performance will be
delivered by providing $500 million in tax savings, $200 million in related efficiencies and cost savings of more than $40 million per year. Dynegy will buy approximately $2.8 billion of assets from Duke and $3.45 billion from ECP.
Dynegy emerges from shadow
of debt
Investors are wary about Dynergy’s rocky financial performance in recent years, as
the utility has been struggling to pay for power plant leases following its emergence from bankruptcy proceedings in 2012.
As a result, Dynegy’s management has opted to own power plants instead in order to help mitigate the costs of fluctuating prices. The new acquisitions will be supported by issuance of approximately $5 billion in new unsecured bonds and $1.25 billion in equity and equity-linked securities. Dynegy has
also secured two incremental corporate-level revolving credit facilities of $950 million.
“We appreciate the support of the company’s relationship banks which have provided committed financing to ensure both sufficient funds for closing as well as revolver capacity to manage the liquidity requirements of the combined company,” said Clint Freeland, Dynegy’s chief financial officer. n
T
he capacity factor is a measure of a plants actual power output over a period of time compared to its theoretical maximum.EPA target ‘bullish’
EPA guidelines, issued in June, call for a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from the power generation sector by 30% by 2030, compared to 2005 levels. The EPA regulation strongly favours gas-fired power over coal, due to the pollution implications, and as a result calls for gas plants to increase capacity factors to meet demand.
The average capacity factor for combined cycle gas plants in the U.S. in 2013 was just 46.5%, according to operator data published by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Oglethorpe already has one of the levels in the U.S. reporting a capacity factor of 64% in the first half of this year, but nonetheless described the EPA targets as “bullish”.
“The discomfort I have is that while we have been doing a very good job of finding natural gas ... is gas transportation infrastructure going to keep up with the increasing need?” Mike Smith, chief executive of Oglethorpe said, adding that that he also had concerns that such a high capacity factor would
put natural gas in a “very dominant” position in energy firms’ generation portfolios.
Gas power moving from peaking to
baseload
While a significant proportion of gas-fired plants have traditionally been used only to provide peaking power there is a growing trend in the U.S. towards baseload generation,
driven by cheap wholesale gas prices. Although the need for peaking power has also grown as a result of intermittent renewable deployment the latest EPA regulation appears to tip the balance in favour of baseload. Open cycle natural gas-fired turbines of the sort typically used for peaking power had a capacity factor of just 4.1% in 2013, according to the EIA. n
U.S. gas capacity factor of 70% requires
pipeline expansion
Dynegy to buy 5,053 MW of gas-fired capacity
Increasing the capacity factor of U.S. combined cycle plants to 70% by 2030 to meet Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) targets is ‘doable’, according to Georgia-based energy firm Oglethorpe Power, but will require expansion of the country’s gas pipeline and transportation networks.
U.S. energy firm Dynegy Power plans to purchase 5,053 MW of gas-fired power generation capacity from Duke Energy and Energy Capital. The deals, worth an estimated $6.25 billion, will also include a number of coal plant purchases, Dynegy stated as it aims to boost its overall capacity to nearly 26,000 MW.
Source: IEA
Source: IEA
29 August 2014
T
wo-thirds of the MCS voted in favour of the plant which is expected to create 30 to 40 jobs in the county.Plant to be powered by GE 7.04 gas
turbines
The plant will be powered by GE’s 7.04 gas turbines with two combustion turbine generators (CTGs), connected to two heat recovery steam generators (HRSGs). Exhaust heat from the CTGs will be used to generate electricity via a single steam turbine (ST).
The plant will consume approximately $105 million worth of natural gas per year which will be sourced from producers in West Virginia .Corky DeMarco, executive director of the West Virginia
Oil and Natural Gas Association was positive about the fact that plant would use “Marcellus Shale gas” and “help create jobs” in the Mountain State.
The Moundsville Power project is being built on a 37-acre portion of the former Allied Chemical Plant site that is now owned by Honeywell who has been remediating the site. Honeywell has provided financial and engineering support to develop the site.
New plant to drive economic
growth state-wide
The annual projected economic impact during construction is in excess of $815 million and the plant will have an annual operating impact of over $283 million, according to an economic impact study performed by Witt Economics.
A CH2M Hill-led consortium will build the plant and provide construction and operating guarantees, while GE will install the gas turbines, supply power island equipment and service the plant under a long-term agreement.
Moundsville Power LLC believes that the plant will be “a catalyst for continued economic growth” and will “help to maintain the reliability throughout the PJM grid.” n
29 August 2014
7
TVA to build $975 million Memphis gas plant
MCS approves 549 MW Moundsville gas plant
T
he coal plant was required to either retire or install emissions controls in response to a clean-air agreement with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.Gas plant to reduce CO2 output
60%
The 55-year-old Allen coal power plant will be replaced with a high-efficiency, 2-on-1, combined-cycle gas power plant when it is closed. This new plant is expected to reduce carbon emissions by more than 60%, nitrogen oxides by 90% and sulphur dioxide by nearly 100%.
“We evaluated our options from financial, business and environmental perspectives and decided this is the best way to help us meet our cleaner air goals and optimize the generation portfolio,” TVA President and CEO Bill Johnson said. “Memphis is our largest customer and we
must have a proven source of generation in the city to ensure system-wide reliability while giving us flexibility that allows for future growth.”
TVA to invest in expanding gas
capacity
This is the latest investment that TVA has announced as part of a wider strategy to replace its ageing coal fleet. Earlier this year the company said it plans to invest $1 billion in a new gas-fired plant in Kentucky.The firm is in the process of conducting a detailed technical review of its power generating mix and already plans to close 8 of its existing coal-fired units.
The Kentucky plant will be located at the existing Paradise plant at Drakesboro, Kentucky and is expected to cut costs as TVA tries to “keep pace with changing economic and regulatory conditions.”
“Over the past months, we considered a
number of capacity studies and associated financial and environmental analyses and this will bring the greatest benefit to the people of the Valley,” Bill Johnson, chief executive at TVA said. “This will support our focus on cleaner energy and bring additional, necessary balance into our portfolio for managing our current and projected load profile.” n
PROJECTS & FINANCE
Marshall County Commission (MCS) has approved a proposal to construct a 549 MW gas-fired power plant in Marshall County, West Virginia. The facility, to be built by New York-based independent power plant (IPP) developer Moundsville Power, will cost an estimated $615 million and is scheduled to start operation in mid-2015.
Knoxville-based power producer Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) plans to build a 1,000 MW gas-fired power station to replace its existing Allen coal plant in Memphis, Tennessee. The project is expected to cost $975 million and to be complete by December 2018.
TVA’s existing Allen Plant will be replaced by gas power
Site of the proposed gas power plant
NEWS
NUDGES
Macallan distillery to install
£74m CHP plant
UK power developer Estover Energy is to build a £74m combined heat and power (CHP) plant at the Macallan whisky distillery in Speyside, north-eastern Scotland. The proposed plant will produce 87.4 GWh per annum of electricity per year and will be part funded by the UK Green Investment Bank (GIB).
ABB launches new
gas-insulated switchgear (GIS)
Swiss power and automation group ABB has announced an improvement to its switchgear technology that deploys a new insulation gas mixture as a substitute for sulfur hexafluoride (SF6).
This newgas mixture replaces SF6 gas now used in switchgear and can substantially lower environmental impact of gas-insulated switchgear (GIS).
GTP
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