Editorial preface

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The Economic and Social Review, Vol. 27, No. 2, January, 1996, pp. v-ix

Editorial Preface*

T

his special issue o f t h e Review m a r k s t h e centenary o f t h e b i r t h o f Roy Geary — Ireland's greatest statistician — w h o was b o r n i n D r u m c o n d r a , D u b l i n o n 11 A p r i l , 1896 a n d d i e d on 8 F e b r u a r y , 1983. I t i s t h e t h i r d occasion u p o n w h i c h the Review has acknowledged the life a n d w o r k o f Geary. I n t h e A p r i l issue of 1976, t h e Review celebrated Geary's 8 0 t h b i r t h d a y w i t h a n a r t i c l e by J o h n Spencer on Geary's scientific w o r k . T h a t p u b l i c a t i o n also i n c l u d e d a n i n v a l u a b l e l i s t o f Geary's p u b l i s h e d w o r k u p to 1976. S h o r t l y after Geary's death, i n t h e A p r i l 1983 issue, t h e Review p u b l i s h e d a w a r m appreciation by J o h n Spencer a n d updated his published o u t p u t f r o m 1977 to 1983. I t is a r e m a r k a b l e t e s t i m o n y to Geary's zest for w o r k t h a t i n t h e last seven years o f h i s l o n g a n d productive life he p u b l i s h e d 16 papers. M a n y a researcher w o u l d l i k e to p u b l i s h as m a n y i n a lifetime! I n 1993, o n t h e 1 0 t h a n n i v e r s a r y o f Geary's death, t h e Review p u b l i s h e d a h i g h l y i n f o r m a t i v e account o f Geary's life a n d personality by J o h n Spencer. I n t h e same issue, K i e r a n Kennedy wrote eloquently of Geary's t i m e at t h e E S R I .

I t is n o t our i n t e n t i o n here to go i n t o any great depth on biographical d e t a i l as t h i s is already done i n t h e references cited above a n d f u l l e r i n f o r m a t i o n can be found i n Spencer (1983b, 1983c and 1990) and i n Stone (1987). I n w h a t follows we d r a w l i b e r a l l y o n these sources.

Geary was a s t u d e n t at U C D from 1913 t o 1917 o b t a i n i n g a first-class honours B . S c , i n M a t h s and M a t h e m a t i c a l Physics and a M . S c , i n M a t h s . H e continued h i s post-graduate studies at the Sorbonne f r o m 1919-1921 acquir i n g a fluency i n t h e F r e n c h language and a love of t h e F r e n c h people i n t h e process. H e was a w a r d e d a D.Sc. by N U I i n 1937, based o n h i s p u b l i s h e d work.

H i s f i r s t e m p l o y m e n t was a t t h e U n i v e r s i t y of S o u t h a m p t o n i n 1922 as l e c t u r e r i n M a t h e m a t i c s a n d M a t h e m a t i c a l Physics. I n 1923, he t o o k u p e m p l o y m e n t i n t h e Statistics B r a n c h of t h e D e p a r t m e n t o f I n d u s t r y a n d Commerce a n d remained there u n t i l 1949 b u t he d i d spend t h e academic year 1946-47 i n Cambridge i n t h e D e p a r t m e n t of A p p l i e d Economics u n d e r t h e headship of R i c h a r d Stone.

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I n 1949 he w a s a p p o i n t e d first D i r e c t o r of t h e C e n t r a l Statistics Office. T h e r e is a n i n t e r e s t i n g f a m i l y c o n n e c t i o n here i n t h a t Roy's f a t h e r w a s associated w i t h t h e Census o f P o p u l a t i o n i n 1901, 1911 and 1926. R.C. r e t i r e d f r o m t h e C i v i l Service i n 1957 t o become C h i e f o f t h e N a t i o n a l Accounts B r a n c h o f t h e U N S t a t i s t i c a l Office i n N e w Y o r k . W h i l e there, he was also V i s i t i n g Professor of E c o n o m e t r i c s at t h e N e w School o f G r a d u a t e Social Studies, N e w Y o r k . I n 1960, he r e t u r n e d to I r e l a n d to become f i r s t Director o f The Economic Research I n s t i t u t e . H e r e t i r e d f r o m t h i s p o s i t i o n i n 1966 b u t r e m a i n e d o n as consultant u n t i l h i s death o n 8 February, 1983.

Roy received m a n y honours d u r i n g h i s l o n g career. H e was an H o n o r a r y F e l l o w o f t h e R o y a l S t a t i s t i c a l Society a n d t h e A m e r i c a n S t a t i s t i c a l Association. H e was elected t o a F e l l o w s h i p of t h e Econometric Society a n d served as a C o u n c i l member f r o m 1962-1964. H e was Past President o f t h e S t a t i s t i c a l a n d Social I n q u i r y Society o f I r e l a n d a n d o f t h e I n t e r n a t i o n a l S t a t i s t i c a l I n s t i t u t e a n d Past C h a i r m a n o f t h e C o u n c i l o f t h e I n t e r n a t i o n a l A s s o c i a t i o n for Research i n I n c o m e a n d W e a l t h . H e was a member o f t h e C o m m i t t e e o f E x p e r t s o n t h e E u r o p e a n Social C h a r t e r (Council of Europe) a n d i n 1981 was a w a r d e d t h e prestigious Boyle M e d a l of t h e Royal D u b l i n Society. H e w a s also, of course, honoured b y the establishment i n 1966 of t h e a n n u a l Geary Lecture by T h e Economic and Social Research I n s t i t u t e .

Roy Geary produced 112 p u b l i s h e d papers i n h i s lifetime — more t h a n h a l f of these after he was 65. T h e range of his publications is extensive. H i s major c o n t r i b u t i o n was u n d o u b t e d l y i n t h e field of m a t h e m a t i c a l statistics. B u t he w a s a l w a y s concerned w i t h p r a c t i c a l a p p l i c a t i o n s a n d he made a l a s t i n g c o n t r i b u t i o n t o a p p l i e d statistics. H i s w o r k i n t h e C e n t r a l Statistics Office a n d at t h e U N S t a t i s t i c a l Office l e d h i m t o produce a n u m b e r of p r a c t i c a l results i n t h e field o f a p p l i e d i n d e x n u m b e r analysis. H e also j o i n t l y d e r i v e d t h e u t i l i t y f u n c t i o n u n d e r l y i n g t h e L i n e a r E x p e n d i t u r e System, the so-called Stone-Geary u t i l i t y function, w h i c h continues to be a n i m p o r t a n t function i n a p p l i e d analyses o f consumer d e m a n d . F r o m t h e mid-1960s onwards, he devoted m o r e of h i s considerable energies to statistical and economic analysis of I r i s h economic issues.

B u t Roy w a s no closeted s t a t i s t i c i a n a n d d i d n o t fit t h e stereotypical c h a r a c t e r i s a t i o n . H e f o u n d p l e n t y of t i m e for l e i s u r e a c t i v i t i e s a n d h i s extended f a m i l y . H e loved soccer b o t h as a player and spectator. He h a d a g r e a t love o f t h e a r t s i n c l u d i n g p a i n t i n g , b a l l e t , music a n d especially t h e theatre. I n fact, Roy acted o n t h e stages of t h e Abbey a n d t h e Gate and k n e w O'Casey. H e h a d t h e c h a r m a n d generosity o f m o s t g r e a t m e n a n d was especially encouraging to y o u n g academics a n d researchers.

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H i s i m p o s i n g stature a n d w h i t e h a i r made h i m s t a n d out. Geary was v e r y a r t i c u l a t e — w h e n he rose to speak t h e audience l i s t e n e d w i t h great attentiveness. H e h a d a presence a n d a melodious voice t h a t were derived, no doubt, from h i s i n t e r e s t i n t h e t h e a t r e . B u t more t h a n t h a t he exuded good h u m o u r a n d goodwill t h a t b r o u g h t people together and gave t h e m a sense o f belonging to a c o m m u n i t y of scholars. H i s presen t a t i o n s were always w i t t y ; he s p r i n k l e d t h e m w i t h stories t h a t w e r e a l w a y s t o t h e p o i n t . D e s p i t e h i s a b i l i t y i n a b s t r a c t m a t h e m a t i c a l statistics, h i s clear logic a n d common sense were v e r y c o n v i n c i n g to audiences o f diverse b a c k g r o u n d s . H e was a n u n u s u a l m a n w h o i l l u m i n a t e d the period i n w h i c h he l i v e d .

T h e e d i t o r i a l approach to t h i s centenary t r i b u t e has been t o celebrate Geary's scientific c o n t r i b u t i o n t h r o u g h t h e p u b l i c a t i o n of o r i g i n a l articles by d i s t i n g u i s h e d c o n t r i b u t o r s w h i c h cover a b r o a d expanse of Geary's w o r k and interests.

Geary described h i m s e l f as a "follower o f Fisher" a n d he was u s u a l l y i n f u l l agreement w i t h t h e e s t i m a t i o n methods a n d c r i t e r i a t h a t were advocated by t h a t famous s t a t i s t i c i a n . However, t h i s was n o t always t h e case. I n h i s w o r k on t h e " t a x i " p r o b l e m he preferred a n e s t i m a t o r t h a t is best i n t e r m s o f " P i t m a n closeness" t o w h a t w o u l d have r e s u l t e d from Fisher's m a x i m u m l i k e l i h o o d procedure. Largey and Spencer have re-examined h i s e s t i m a t o r i n t h r e e separate situations — where the d i s t r i b u t i o n is continuous a n d w h e r e i t is discrete, s a m p l i n g w i t h and w i t h o u t replacement. U s i n g m e a n square error as t h e c r i t e r i o n , they compare the Geary e s t i m a t o r w i t h l e a d i n g a l t e r n a t i v e s a n d show t h a t i t has strong properties i n a n u m b e r of different situations.

Conniffe's paper investigates t h e topic f u r t h e r i n t h e context o f g e n e r a l m e t h o d s for n o n - r e g u l a r e s t i m a t i o n s i t u a t i o n s . H e shows t h a t Geary's e s t i m a t o r is a special case o f one recently proposed approach a n d suggests a n a l t e r n a t i v e procedure.

S p a t i a l statistics is now a t h r i v i n g area of research a n d application. I t was n o t always so a n d Geary was one of t h e f i r s t t o m a k e a l a s t i n g c o n t r i b u t i o n t h r o u g h h i s i n t r o d u c t i o n o f the C o n t i g u i t y R a t i o , c. L i k e other aspects of h i s w o r k h i s paper on c is applied as w e l l as t h e o r e t i c a l a n d uses I r i s h economic data. A n t o n y U n w i n ' s paper discusses c a n d r e l a t e d developments i n s p a t i a l statistics. I n p a r t i c u l a r he h i g h l i g h t s t h e new research i n i n t e r a c t i v e s p a t i a l graphics a n d discusses t h e relationship between t h i s w o r k and Geary's r a t i o .

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w h i c h calculates " w o r l d " prices for a l l goods and "true" exchange rates w h i c h measure t h e r e a l p u r c h a s i n g power of different currencies. Geary's m e t h o d ' has m a n y p r a c t i c a l advantages, w h i c h have made i t by far t h e most w i d e l y u s e d today. H o w e v e r , i t has often been c r i t i c i s e d for a l a c k of t h e o r e t i c a l foundations. I n h i s c o n t r i b u t i o n t o t h i s issue, Peter N e a r y reviews t h e debate o n i n t e r n a t i o n a l comparisons a n d suggests how t h e Geary m e t h o d m a y be reconciled w i t h t h e s t a n d a r d t h e o r y o f consumer behaviour. He proposes a n "ideal" m e t h o d o f m a k i n g i n t e r n a t i o n a l comparisons and argues t h a t , o f a l l t h e methods c u r r e n t l y available, t h e Geary method is l i k e l y t o come closest to . the i d e a l i n practice.

Geary often argued t h a t i f y o u cannot show a r e s u l t w i t h a simple method, one w o u l d have t o be sceptical of t h e "prooF i m p l i e d by a more sophisticated m e t h o d . Honohan's note develops a simple test for t h e presence of u n i t r o o t w h i c h surely meets t h i s c r i t e r i o n . I n 1970, Geary proposed t h e count-of-sign-change test as a simple a l t e r n a t i v e t o t h e D u r b i n - W a t s o n statistic i n t e s t i n g for autocorrelation. B u t , as P a t r i c k H o n o h a n points out, t h i s test could have a new lease of life as a v i s u a l check for t h e existence of a u n i t root. A s H o n o h a n notes, there is t h e added convenience t h a t t h e c r i t i c a l value for 95 per cent confidence i s j u s t t w i c e t h e square r o o t of t h e sample size. So, u n l i k e t h e s i t u a t i o n w i t h other u n i t root tests, t h e user of Geary's test i n t h i s application needs n e i t h e r computer nor tables.

W e have also t a k e n t h e o p p o r t u n i t y , w i t h t h e k i n d p e r m i s s i o n o f T h e E c o n o m e t r i c s Society, to r e - p u b l i s h one o f Geary's classic a n d e n d u r i n g l y i n f l u e n t i a l papers on i n s t r u m e n t a l variables w h i c h was o r i g i n a l l y p u b l i s h e d i n Econometrica i n 1949. T h e "discovery" o f t h e i n s t r u m e n t a l v a r i a b l e s technique is sometimes credited to Reiers0l on the strength o f h i s 1950 paper a n d e a r l i e r w o r k . B u t A l d r i c h (1993), w h o p u b l i s h e d i n t h e Review, has analysed t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p between Geary's 1949 paper, h i s e a r l i e r r e l a t e d papers a n d Reiers0l's w o r k . H e has shown how r e l a t i v e c o n t r i b u t i o n s have become c l o u d e d , p a r t l y because t h e c o n t e n t s o f e a r l i e r w o r k w e r e m i s l e a d i n g l y r a t i o n a l i s e d i n the l a t e r papers, a n d p a r t l y because Geary chose n o t t o h i g h l i g h t some of h i s o w n r e l e v a n t w o r k . I n r e p r i n t i n g t h e 1949 paper here, we believe we are, i n p a r t , redressing t h e v i e w t h a t some historians o f econometrics have t a k e n .

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SPENCER, J O H N E., 1983C. "Robert Charles Geary 1896-1983", Econometrica, Vol. 51, No. 5, September, pp. 1,500-1,601.

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