Lord Ashcroft 29 September 2013

(1)

Lord

Ashcroft Polls

@LordAshcro+

29 September 2013

NATIONAL: 1,007 adults were interviewed by telephone between 13 and 16 September 2013. Results have been weighted to be representaJve of all adults in Great Britain.

MARGINAL SEATS: 12,809 people were interviewed by telephone in the 40 most marginal ConservaJve-‐held seats between 1 August and 5 September 2013.

(2)

United?

Good team of leaders?

(3)

For everyone?

48%

52%

57%

49%

55%

43%

25%

31%

26%

29%

66%

34%

46%

37%

44%

(4)

Reservations about Labour

‘They have not made

clear

what they

would do to improve things’

72 All

Labour voters

52 ‘They might

borrow and spend

more

than the country can aﬀord’

68

39 ‘They have not

learned

the right lessons’

65

37

(5)

Preferred PM?

24%

28%

24%

29%

32%

30%

28%

33%

37%

31%

33%

28%

30%

_28%

13%

15%

13%

6%

SaJsﬁed with DC

DissaJsﬁed and

prefer EM

Don’t know/Refused

DissaJsﬁed but

prefer DC to EM

(6)

David Cameron

MAY 2011 MAY 2012 JAN 2013 SEP 2012 APR 2013 JUN 2013 SEP 2013

(7)

Ed Miliband

MAY 2011 MAY 2012 JAN 2013 SEP 2012 APR 2013 JUN 2013 SEP 2013

(8)

Nick Clegg

MAY 2011 MAY 2012 JAN 2013 SEP 2012 JUN 2013 SEP 2013

(9)

Cameron v Miliband

Represent the UK overseas

Right decisions even when unpopular

Understand ordinary people

Clear idea what they want to achieve

Lead a team

Oct 2013

June 2013

Sept 2013

+30

+24

₊₃₇

+24

+16

₊₃₀

+8

₊₁₂

₊₂₈

+14

₊₁₄

₊₃₁

(10)

Right balance of tax rises &

spending cuts

Tackle welfare abuse

(11)

Help business grow & recover

Steer the economy through

diﬃcult Jmes

(12)

Trust on the economy

40%

38%

51%

31%

33%

28%

29%

21%

Jan-‐13 Feb-‐13 Mar-‐13 Apr-‐13 May-‐13 Jun-‐13 Jul-‐13 Aug-‐13 Sep-‐13

Cameron &

Osborne

Miliband &

Balls

Neither/

don’t know

Who do you most trust to manage the

economy in the best interests of Britain?

(13)

Optimism returning?

-‐21%

-‐27%

-‐14%

-‐12%

6%

-‐51%

-‐61%

-‐46%

-‐42%

7%

-‐70%

-‐60%

-‐50%

-‐40%

-‐30%

-‐20%

-‐10%

0%

10%

20%

Fe b-‐1 1 Ap r-‐ 11 Ju n-‐11 Au g-‐ 11 O ct-‐ 11 De c-‐11 Fe b-‐1 2 Ap r-‐ 12 Ju n-‐12 Au g-‐ 12 O ct-‐ 12 De c-‐12 Fe b-‐1 3 Ap r-‐ 13 Ju n-‐13 Au g-‐ 13

Me & my family

Country as a whole

How will the

economy fare for…

(14)

32 Con-held Labour targets

39%

35%

29%

36%

44%

43%

18%

9%

8%

3%

11%

2010 elecJon

Mid 2011

Mid 2013

Con

Lab

Lib Dem

UKIP

(15)

8 Con-held Lib Dem targets

41%

39%

32%

13%

19%

18%

39%

31%

29%

4%

3%

12%

2010 elecJon

Mid 2011

Mid 2013

Con

Lab

Lib Dem

UKIP

(16)

Con-Lab seats: Tory defectors

Labour: 18%

Lib Dems: 7%

UKIP: 27%

Don’t know 32%

Others: 8%

Not vote: 5%

(17)

Con-Lab seats: Tory defectors

NOT thinking David Cameron would make the best PM 23% NOT believing ConservaJves are “on the side of people like me” 21% NOT thinking ConservaJves “share my values” 20% Thinking Britain is heading in the wrong direcJon 11% NOT being clear about what the ConservaJves stand for 9% ConservaJves NOT willing to take tough decisions for the long term 8% Agreeing Labour is willing to take tough decisions for the long term 4% Agreeing Labour “shares my values” 3% Agreeing Labour is on my side 3%

(18)

Con-Lab seats: UKIP voters

Ranking immigraJon in the top three most important issues facing Britain NOT believing Labour are competent and capable

Ranking immigraJon as the most important issue facing Britain NOT agreeing Labour “shares my values”

NOT agreeing Labour are willing to take tough decisions for the long term NOT ranking educaJon in the most important issues facing Britain

Europe in the top three most important issues facing Britain

NOT ranking the environment in the most important issue facing Britain NOT believing ConservaJves are “on the side of people like me”

NOT believing the ConservaJves will do what they say NOT believing the Lib Dems are competent and capable Europe as the most important issue facing Britain

NOT thinking ConservaJves “share my values”

(19)

Con-LD seats: Tory defectors

Labour: 4%

Lib Dems: 25%

UKIP: 28%

Don’t know 29%

Others: 6%

Not vote: 6%

(20)

Con-LD seats: Tory defectors

NOT thinking ConservaJves “share my values” 19% NOT believing ConservaJves are competent and capable 16% NOT believing ConservaJves are “on the side of people like me” 15% NOT being clear about what the ConservaJves stand for 12% NOT believing the ConservaJves will do as they say 12% NOT thinking David Cameron would make the best PM 11% NOT agreeing the ConservaJves will take tough decisions for the long term 9% NOT thinking economy will improve because right decisions taken 6%

(21)

Con-LD seats: UKIP voters

NOT ranking the environment in the most important issues

NOT agreeing Labour are willing to take tough decisions for the long term NOT ranking educaJon in the most important issues facing Britain

Ranking Europe in the top three most important issues facing Britain NOT believing the Lib Dems are competent and capable

NOT believing Labour are “on the side of people like me”

NOT ranking the environment as the most important issue facing Britain NOT ranking cufng welfare dependency as most important issue

NOT thinking the Lib Dems “share my values”

Ranking defence & security in the most important issues facing Britain Ranking immigraJon in the top three most important issues facing Britain NOT believing ConservaJves are competent and capable

NOT thinking ConservaJves “share my values”

NOT ranking educaJon as the most important issue facing Britain NOT ranking the NHS as the most important issue facing Britain NOT believing ConservaJves are “on the side of people like me”

(22)

Lord

Ashcroft Polls