Original Paper
Rapid Agriculture Needs Assessment in response to the “El - Niño” impacts in Benishangul Gumuz Region
1*Dereje Mosissa, 2Biresaw Mokonnon
1Ethiopian Biodiversity Institute Assosa Biodiversity Center, Assosa Ethiopia (Email; [email protected], Cell phone; +251949045964)
2Environment Forest and Land Administration Bureau, BGRS, Assosa, Assosa Ethiopia (Email; [email protected], Cell phone; +251912124542)
*Corresponding Author Email: [email protected];
ARTICLE INFO Article history:
Received 22 Oct. 2017 Revised 22 Dec. 2017 Accepted 12 Jan. 2017
The main rainy season (kiremt) that is vital for producing over 80 % of Ethiopia’s agricultural yield-in an industry that employs 85% of the country’s workforce-failed in 2015. Since then, El Niño has caused serious destruction on farmer’s crops, livestock and other common properties including natural resources. In response, Benishangul Gumuz Regional Bureau of Agriculture and Rural Development (BoARD) requested the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural development (MoARD), to provide an emergency support through FAO in conducting a rapid agriculture needs assessment to estimate the impact on the agricultural livelihoods of the affected population.
This assessment was a useful input towards the development of mitigation and resilience plans, and assist in planning the required emergency support to the affected households and communities. The assessment used both primary and secondary tools for data collection and covered five affected Woredas. A combination of heavy rains followed by erratic rain attributed to El-Niño event, have been directly affected thousands of households in five assessed Woreda of the Benishangul Gumuz region since 2015. This had severe consequence on the livelihood of the region. The key findings of the assessment showed that Engagement in distress copying mechanisms was generally reported among the woredas assessed.
Keywords: disaster, “El-Niño”, flood, livelihood, main rainy season, natural resources
Introduction
Background information
Ethiopia is a developing African country located between 3o N and 15o N, and 33o E and 48o E.
Ethiopia is estimated to be about 1.2 million square kilometers, two thirds of which is mountainous, lying between 1700-3000 meters above sea level. The western and eastern highlands rise to 4000 meters with the Rift Valley dissecting them. More than 60 percent of Ethiopians live in these highlands. Drought, deforestation and soil erosion are the leading environmental problems in the region. At the turn of the 20th century, 40 percent of Ethiopia’s land surface was covered with dense forests. This has been reduced to only 4
7 percent. Land degradation in Ethiopia is aggravated because of high population density and the traditional techniques of cultivation and this is true for Benishangul Gumuz Regional State.
The Ethiopian economy is highly dominated by agriculture, with a GDP composed of 50 percent agriculture, 40percent services and 10 percent industry [5]. Agriculture contributes 88 percent of exports and 88 percent of employment. Coffee, for example, contributes 60 percent of foreign earnings. Ethiopian agriculture is dominated by (1) the subsistence farmers sector, which contributes 95 percent of the production of cereals, pulses and oil seeds; (2) the pastoral sector with a nomadic form of production; (3) agro-pastorals and small-scale modern commercial farming, which is in its nascent stage of development.
Ethiopia produces the largest livestock population in Africa, and the FAO estimated that it ranked 9th in the world [5]. However, it is characterized by low productivity. The dominant and identified food supply systems in Ethiopia are “crop dependent, market dependent, and livestock dependent, with some groups of people depending on more than one of these systems” [14].
The Ethiopian National Meteorological Services Agency (NMSA) divides Ethiopia into four climatic zones based on the pattern of rainfall [13]. These are:
(1) The two-season type: this includes the western half of Ethiopia, which is divided into distinct wet and dry seasons.
(2) Bi-two season type: the south and southeast of Ethiopia is characterized by double wet seasons that occur between March-May and September-November with two dry seasons in between [13].
(3) The undefined season mostly has sporadic rainfall between July and February without any defined season. It occurs in the dry northern part of the Ethiopian Rift Valley.
(4) The three-season type: these areas include central and southwestern Ethiopia. The average annual rainfall in the highlands of Ethiopia is above 1000 mm a year and it rises to 2000mm and 3000 mm in the wet southwestern parts of Ethiopia [1]. The three seasons in Ethiopia are classified according to the amount and timing of rainfall. They are designated as Kiremt, (June-September), Bega (October-January), and belg (February-May) [13].
These seasons determine the seasonal agricultural activities, such as land preparation, planting, weeding and harvesting by farmers.
An understanding of El Niño as a cause of climate-related hazards in Ethiopia before the 1997-98 event was limited to the NMSA and the DPPC. The NMSA began to develop an interest in the long-range weather forecast and El Niño after the 1983-84 droughts that killed about one million people [10]. El Niño forecasts have been an important aspect of Ethiopia’s response to climate-related hazards since 1987 [6]. According to Kassahun, NMSA’s serious scientists conducted a discussion regarding the possibility of El Niño’s effect on Ethiopian weather after reading the work of Marc Cane about the 1982-83 El Niño.
In 1987, a NMSA report stated that ENSO events negatively affect the rain-producing components of the Ethiopian weather. The report also stated that the impact of ENSO on Ethiopian weather is indisputable [13]. After the severity of the 1983-84 drought, the NMSA was “compelled to prepare and issue a seasonal forecast of belg (small rain period) and
Kiremt (big rain period) rains of 1987, well in advance”[7]. According to Haile, there is no theoretically sound methodology for the NMSA to carry out its long-range weather forecast. The NMSA used the analogue method to forecast the anomalous seasonal rainfall.
Forecasting by analogy is used in an attempt to know the future in situations where the
8
“cases are analogous to ways that societies might respond to environmental change” [9].
The government adequately responded to avert the 1987-88 famine and was awarded the Sasakawa-UNDRO award [2].
The National Meteorological Services Agency (NMSA) has been using the technique of forecasting by analogy in its use of El Niño as a drought early warning. The NMSA agency identifies the current ENSO event and compares it with similar past ENSO events for which the impact on Ethiopia is known. The idea is to forecast that the impact on Ethiopia of the coming ENSO event would not be different from the past event. For example, the 1997-98 El Niño was compared by NMSA with past El Niños, and it was decided that it resembled the 1972-73 El Niño. NMSA then concluded that the impact of the El Niño on the amount and distribution of rainfall in 1997 would be similar to that of 1972-73.
Similarly, the impact of the current La Niña on the rainfall amount and distribution of rainfall in the Kiremt2000 is similar to the analogue year of the 1980 La Niña. The use of forecasting by analogy to reduce the impact of the anomalous weather has been very important in Ethiopia’s drought early warning. NMSA forecasters also take the SST of the Indian and Atlantic oceans into account. Then NMSA forecasts precipitation by classifying rainfall into normal (75 percent-125 percent of long term mean rainfall), below normal (less than 75 percent of long-term mean rainfall) and above normal (more than 125 percent of long term mean rainfall) [1].
The National Policy for Disaster Prevention and Management stressed that early warning and preparedness were key elements to respond to climate-related hazards. An emergency food security reserve was put forward as an important component of preparedness. In 1995, the RRC was renamed the Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Commission (DPPC) to reflect the new philosophy [5].
The National Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Committee (NDPPC) was established under the Prime Minister’s office to implement the National Disaster Policy [4]. In 1995, a technical Task Force that included donors, UN agencies, NGOs, and government agencies was established to implement the National Policy. The NDPPC deals with climate-related impacts at the national level and is chaired by the Prime Minister. Its members include the Ministry of Agriculture, the Ministry of Health, the Ministry of Water Resources and Development, the Ministry of Economic Development and Cooperation, the Ministry of Trade and Industry, and the Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Commission (DPPC), the National Meteorological Services Agency (NMSA) and the Ethiopian Mapping Agency.
Heavy floods attributed to “El-Niño” rains have been occurring in Benishangul Gumuz Regional State (BGRS) since 2015, causing serious destruction on crops, livestock and other farmer’s properties, including houses, and affected more than 21 000 households.
This has threatened the biodiversity in general and livelihood, food security and nutrition situation of the affected households, as well as reduced food supply to the urban population in particular. In response to the impacts and the projected scenario, the Benishangul Gumuz Regional State (BGRS), Bureau of Agriculture and Rural Development (BoARD) to gather with FDRM, and Bureau of Environmental Protection Land administration and Use (EPLAU) conducted a rapid agriculture needs assessment in order to estimate the impact on the agricultural livelihoods of the population affected. This assessment would be have been a useful input towards the development of mitigation and resilience plans, and would also assist in planning the required emergency support to the affected households and communities.
9 Fig. 1 Reporting System of the Ethiopian Early Warning System (EWS)
Objectives of the survey
Assess the major damages and lose on the biodiversity specially of agricultural sector and its sub-sectors including crop production, livestock, and irrigation.
Assess the risks and vulnerabilities caused by the floods, especially in relation to agricultural livelihoods.
Assess the immediate mitigation and recovery needs for the affected population who largely depend on agriculture for their livelihood and identify suitable short, medium and long-term interventions.
Project a likely scenario in relations to the continuation of the already experienced
“El-Niño’s” effects.
Methodology
The assessment used a combination of primary and secondary tools for data collection and covered a sample of the affected region. Checklists for Key Informant Interviews (KIIs) and Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) were also developed for pre and post-disaster information. Moreover, reports, publications, articles and other secondary informative material were collected and described accordingly. Two assessment teams were formed, each led by two EPLAU staff and joint by two representatives from the BoARD, one senior officer from Disaster Management Department (DMD). All the teams travelled to the six most affected woredas in order to meet with representatives of the kebeles, region and district / municipality level, as well as other concerned actors. Initially, the assessors conducted key informant interviews with these stakeholders mentioned above, before
10 visiting the affected districts / municipalities where they undertook FGDs with the local communities, together with field observations. At least two FGDs in the selected regions were conducted with separate groups of men and women in order to compare the answers received and ensure gender desegregation as part of the assessment.
Fig. 2. Women and men focus group discussions in kebele office
11 Fig. 3. Map of the assessment area [15]
Overall characteristics of the affected region Agriculture in the Region
Socio-economic and livelihood
In 1994 out of the total population aged ten years and above were 83.5% and economically active. The activity status was higher in rural areas (86%) than in urban centers (56%).
Among the economically inactive population aged ten years and over students and homemakers account for the majority of unemployment rate in 1994 was 0.70%; 7% for urban and 30% for rural areas.
Majority of the economically active population works in agricultural sector including hunting, forestry and fishery. Only 0.5% of the economically active population is engaged in the industrial sector. Some 0.7% worked in the service sectors in 1994. The main economic sectors which are likely to be impacted negatively by climate change and require adaptation & mitigation measures include: Agriculture (Crop production &Livestock production), Forestry; Water, Mining & Energy Resources sectors. Women in the region are the primary agricultural producers, income earners, and responsible for food preparation and care for the family, yet they are more vulnerable than men for a variety of reasons
Climate and Agro-ecological zones
According to the Ethiopian agroecological zonation Benishangul Gumuz Region falls in the two-season type. The two seasons are classified according to the amount and timing of rainfall. They are designated as Kiremt, (June-September) and Bega (October-May) [13].
These seasons determine the seasonal agricultural activities, such as land preparation, planting, weeding and harvesting by farmers. The climate is tropical in BGRS. The summers have a good deal of rainfall, while the winters have very little. According to NMSA, this climate is classified as Aw. The average temperature in BGR is 21.9 °C. In a year, the average rainfall is 1222 mm.
Fig. 4. Climadiagrame of BGRS
12 *Source: Ethiopian Meteorological Agency Assosa Station
Fig. 5. Temperature graph of BGRS
Agricultural land use
Forest, Agriculture and livestock resources in the region
The region is endowed with fertile land suitable for high value crops, livestock, apiculture, fishery, minerals like gold and marble, and economically important trees like bamboo and incense. Livestock production is important means of livelihood in the region next to crop production. It is important sources of food, cash income, and assets to buffer against shocks. In general, a mixed farming system, involving both crop production and livestock rearing activities, is the dominant type of production system. According to the Central Statistical Authority [3] agricultural sample survey, the region had about 0.4 million cattle, 0.3 million goats, 0.1 million sheep, and nearly one million poultry. In terms of land‐use patterns, the region’s landmass is predominantly comprised of bushes and shrubs 77.4 percent, while forestland constitutes about 11.4 percent. Further, cultivated land, grazing land and marginal land constitutes about 5.3 percent, 3.2 percent and 2.3 percent, respectively. The vegetation classified into eight types, namely: dense forest, riverine forest, broad-leaved deciduous wood lands, acacia woodland, bush land, shrub lands, Boswellia wood land and bamboo thickets [8]. About 0.2 hectare (89 percent) of the total land of the region is covered with vegetation. Evidences in the region revealed that the lowland bamboo forest grows between 1000 and 1800 m.a.s.l and on poor soil in dry vegetation formation [12]. It also tolerates poor rocky soil, in erratic annual rainfall even down to about 600 mm and in high temperature of above 35°C. The highland bamboo
13 grows in altitudes from 2.200 -3.500 m.a.s.l and the lowland bamboo between 700-1800 m.a.s.l [11].
Results of the assessment Risk and vulnerability
Through changing temperatures, increase in precipitation and sea levels rise, amongst other factors, global climate change is already modifying hazard levels and exacerbating disaster risks. Economic losses from disasters such as drought, earthquakes, cyclones, floods, etc.
are now reaching an average of USD 250 to 350 billion each year. In addition to this, Ethiopia, including Benishangul Gumuz Region (BGR), is currently under the grip of an intense “El-Niño” event, which is considered the worst in the last 10 years. This region, is regularly exposed to such types of events, however what is occurring this 2015 / 2016 agricultural season is very similar to what took place in 1997, where the agriculture sector experienced heavy losses and damages coupled with the destruction of key infrastructures (i.e. houses, roads, bridges and irrigation schemes). Figure 3 shows the frequency of the natural hazards affecting the visited regions, based on the Focus Group Discussions’
(FGDs) results, where floods and drought are considered the most frequent ones, followed by pests and diseases, storms and very rarely hail, as well as frost and other hazards.
Sherkole has the highest rate of natural hazards recurrence, followed by Assosa, Mengie, Kurmuk and Guba.
Fig. 6. Main natural hazards experienced by the communities
As mentioned before, the frequency of the different natural hazards differs from one type to another. Although pests are considered as the most impacting hazard, and usually the less recurrent, respondents indicated that their occurrences cause the most severe impact while also affecting larger agricultural areas. On the other hand, droughts are more frequent as they are taking place almost every season but their impact is restricted to some regions or districts / kebeles. Even when storms are happening regularly, their impact is much more localized compared to pest and disease outbreaks which happen seasonally but affects larger areas or high numbers of animals. See details in Table 1.
Table 1. Frequency of natural hazards
% of respondents
Type of hazard Rarely Regularly Seasonally Yearly
Floods 75 45 25 5
Droughts 35 43 51 25
14
Storm 37 13 98 0
Pest and Disease 28 63 76 0
Frost 41 44 75 0
Others 0 0 0 10
Impacts on the affected livelihoods Crops
For over 80 percent of the assessed population, crops production is the main source of income. On average each male headed household cultivates an area of 2.5 ha, whereas a female headed household 1.5 ha. In Sherkole and Assosa the cultivated areas were reported to be at above average for male headed households and below average in the remaining woredas for female headed households (Table 2).
Table 2. Area in hectares owned by male and female headed households by Woreda
Type of household *Woredas
Kurmuk Sherkole Menge Guba Assosa
Maleheaded 6ha 5hac 12ha 10ha 4ha
Femalehaded 3ha 8ha 6ha 8ha 1.5ha
* Woreda is an administrative unit almost equivalent to a district and kebele to village
Sorghum resulted to be the most cultivated crop, followed Maize and Okra.
Thereafter pulses, tubers and oil crops as well as vegetables and others like ginger are cultivated by a smaller proportion of the population, see details in Figure 7.
Fig. 7. Households cultivating specific crops
15 Most of the flooded agricultural lands and houses were found to be located in lowland areas which are usually considered to be the most prone to flood disaster. The utmost common damages reported in the crop sub-sector were caused by water logging, whereby the cultivated crop could not survive over a long period of time (especially maize and sorghum). In addition to that, flash floods, expansion of riverbed, and debris deposition (silt, rocks, wood, etc.) caused further destruction on the cultivated crops (Figure 8).
Fig. 8. Flooded house and agricultural field
The crop with the largest proportion of the cultivated area affected is maize, followed by sorghum, millet, okra, oil crops, tubers, vegetables and other (Table 3).
Table 3. Percentage of cultivated areas affected, destroyed, recovered and with reduced yield Crops Overall impacted area (%) Area
destroyed (%)
Area affected with reduced
yield (%)
Area with possibility of recovery (%)
Reduction of yield in affected
area (%)*
Sorghum 77.5 55.8 65.5 5.7 50.3
Maize 74.5 79.6 23.2 12.2 57.7
Millet 33.3 67.1 9.3 13.6 58.0
Vegetables 11.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 NA
Oil crops 28.8 76.7 13.3 10.0 30.0
Tubers 20.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 N/A
Okra 23.8 70.0 30.0 0.0 72.5
Phaseolus 17.3 17.3. 3.0 0.0 17
*reduction in yield concerns only the areas which have been affected but still will produce some harvest, therefore are directly related to third column
Even when the overall cultivated areas of tubers and vegetables were reported to be less affected, these areas were entirely destroyed leading to 100% loss of the standing crops.
Whereas, areas cultivated with okra, sorghum, millet and maize, reported losses of standing
16 crops at around 70%, 45%, 71%, and 74% respectively. Only phaseolus had lower levels of destructions corresponding to 17%; this is mainly due to the fact that they are mostly cultivated in home gardens which can absorb the water in excess quicker. The remaining affected areas will either have a reduction in yield or to a lesser extent will be able to recover until harvest time, especially in the case of millet and oil crops. The estimated yield reduction ranges from 74% up to 76%, depending on the crop as reported in Table 6. The main causes of yield reduction are in decreasing order of importance: flooded areas / stagnant water, poor soil fertility, pest or diseases outbreaks due to higher level of humidity and breading grounds for insects, debris coverage and deposition (mud or silt) and landslides, see actual percentages in Figure 9.
Fig. 9. Reasons for reduced yields in the overall affected cultivated areas (percentage of respondents)
Additional discussions with the farmers helped to understand that on top of the above mentioned reasons, reduction of crop production estimates were also based on the results of
some harvested crops in comparison to last year’s production, and visual observation, also looking at the maturation stage of the crops affected still on the field.
Agricultural inputs, assets, facilities and infrastructures
Seeds and other agricultural inputs such as fertilizers, pesticide and tools are key assets for small scale self-sufficient farmers. The effects of the heavy rain occurred in the assessed areas led to the loss of stored crop seeds ranging between 25 percent in Guba to 88 percent in Assosa with an average of 57 percent among all Woredas visited. Up to 50 percent of the fertilizer (mainly animal manure) was lost in Kurmuk areas, whereas the other woredas experienced losses by 35 percent.
Tools losses range from 2 percent in Menge up to 44 percent in Assosa, with an overall losses average of 12 percent. These losses of assets have led to the failure of crop production and the impossibility of resuming farmers’ activities, which will
17 have an implication on the livelihood of the population affected. In addition, but to a much smaller extent, some farm machineries and equipment, as well as farm storage facilities were also reported lost or damaged with higher rates in Guba and Assosa woredas and almost none in Kurmuk woreda – as less households owned such type of assets.
Fig. 7. Main agricultural inputs, assets and facilities destroyed
Livestock, fishery and aquaculture
In general, animals are considered to be important productive assets across all five woredas assessed. Bigger livestock such as cattle, donkey and smaller ruminants such as goat and sheep are used as draught animals, especially for land preparation and transport of food commodities. Furthermore, they are also considered important source of savings together with goat, sheep and pigs, since they can be sold at any time when cash is needed; whereas, chicken are mainly used for production of eggs and meat. Animal products (milk, eggs, skins and meat) are also an important source of food or income.
Almost all the households in the visited woredas own some animals. Therefore it is not surprising that livestock and their products are the second source of income for 75% of them. Whereas, for 10 percent and 30 percent of the households, animals constitute the first and third source of income respectively.
The results of the FGDs and field observation indicates that the occurred floods caused the death of different animals across all woredas assessed, especially poultry, as indicated in Table 4. In Assosa woreda, households have the lowest rate of ruminants compared to most of the other areas but they have the highest rate of chicken; whereas, in Kurmuk, and Menge they have the lowest rate of poultry. Donkeys were mainly reported in Guba, Kurmuk and Sherkole, while they are almost rare in the other areas of Assosa.
Table 4. Overall frequency of animal holding, rate lost and sick
Type of animals Household with animals(%) Animals lost (%) Animals sick (%)
Chicken 43 55 11
Cattle 34 23 35
Sheep 57 15 12
Goat 88 7 11
Donkey 12.5 0 1.7
18 The highest rate of animals lost was recorded for chicken ranging from 67 percent in Assosa to 15 percent in Menge and around 25 percent in Kurmik and Sherkole. The second highest loss was reported in Menge and Sherkole for Catle, followed by sheeps and to an almost negligible extent for donkeys in Guba. Goats losses were mentioned in all woredas.
Cattle losses were reported on a negligible amount in Guba and Kurmuk. Higher losses attributed to smaller animals are due to the fact that bigger livestock were moved to safe areas in time. The actual percentages of sick animals directly linked to the floods are quite low, but this could still increase together with disease outbreak. In fact, some areas are still flooded and the prevalence of water borne diseases (endo-parasites) might escalate as well since the stagnant water is the breeding ground for the vectors (insects) of other animal diseases. Moreover, a lightening followed by heavy rain killed many cattle around Nebar Komishiga (Assosa Woreda) (Figure 8).
Fig. 8. A herd of cattle killed by lightening (Nebar Komishiga Kebele)
According to the FGDs’ results among the households rearing livestock only a small percentage vaccine them. This is due to the high prices, poor knowledge on the importance of animal vaccination and low accessibility to vaccines. Nonetheless, the livestock owners who are using vaccines, are directly purchasing them or accessing them through the government at subsidized price. Fishery activities were reported by 25 percent of households as a third source of income in Guba. In addition, in some Kebeles of Assosa and Guba wereda losses and damages on fishing nets and hooks, as well as damages to boats / canoes, landing sites and fish shades to a negligible extent were reported.
Markets and prices
Markets infrastructures such as stand and storage facilities were overall not affected by the floods. Despite that, some remote areas across all five woredas were isolated due to the
interruption and damages of feeder and secondary roads which reduced accessibility to market and inhibited the transport of goods. While in most affected areas the road
19 communication has already been restored, transportation costs have increased in all the assessed areas. This situation, coupled with the reduced crop production and the higher demand of food commodities led to a significant increase of market prices for almost all agricultural commodities, especially sorghum, cassava, maize and millet, which are considered key staple food commodities as indicated in Figure 9. The analysis conducted compared current prices with both the prices before the floods (September / October 2015) and those of last year during the same period (May 2016).
Exceptions were found for green gram and vegetables commodities as most of them were already harvested when the floods occurred resulting in reduced losses and higher availability in the market.
Fig. 8. Variation of market prices (crop commodities)
On the other hand, two different scenarios of market prices for live animal were observed.
In some kebeles of Assosa woreda namely, Nebar Komishiga, Dabus Atembaqo, Famatsare and Dindir, most of the prices increased as no destocking activities were taking place, especially for donkeys and cattle, see Figure 10.
Fig. 10. Variation of live animal prices in areas without destocking
20 Main source of income
Crop production, livestock keeping, agriculture daily labour and arthimasial gold mining are considered the first, second and third most important sources of income respectively. Whereas, non-agriculture daily labour was reported only in Assosa and fishing in Guba woreda which border Dabus and Blue Nile rivers respectively, see Figure 11.
Fig. 11. Main income sources
Change in livelihood coping mechanisms
Across all woredas assessed, there was a general reported increase of distress copying mechanisms in response to the effects of the floods, especially among women.
Reducing the amount of meals per day was reported as the main copying mechanism by 90 percent and 73 percent of women and men respectively, followed by purchasing food on credit and rely on less preferred food, see Figure 12.
21 Fig. 12. Frequency of use of coping mechanisms
Borrowing of money to access food and other primary commodities such as agricultural inputs or medicines or other coping mechanisms was also indicated as widespread practice. The engagement of such negative mechanisms might have a negative impact on the food security and nutrition situation of the affected population and also lead to an increase of indebtedness due to the impossibility of paying back the loan.
Main agriculture and livestock constraints and needs Constraints
In addition to the impacts and effects caused by the occurred floods across the five woredas assessed, which are described in the above sections of this report, farmers are facing additional direct and indirect constrains that limit their agriculture and livestock production. Lack or higher costs of inputs was reported by 81 percent of respondents, followed by higher incidence of crop pests / diseases outbreaks (34 percent), lack or reduced availability of capital or access to credit (31 percent) and others constrains as land tenure problems, lack of service providers and poor storage facilities as presented in Figure 13 below.
22 Fig. 13. Percentage of main constrains reported for crop production
On the other hand, the main constrains on livestock production refers to the outbreak of
animal diseases and invasion of pests, poor or lack of grazing land / pastures, lack of vaccines, lack of dips, lack of suitable water for animals and lack of veterinary services as presented in Figure 14.
Fig. 14. Main constrains reported for livestock production
23 Needs for crop and livestock production resumption
In order to better understand the main needs of the assessed communities and allow the affected households to resume their agriculture and livestock activities, some discussion were held during the community level meetings to better define short, medium and long term needs. The needs expressed by the respondents below are not necessarily linked to the floods ‘effects, as some reflect the challenges faced by the affected population before the happening of the events; even so a large proportion of these needs, especially those in the short-term, are reflecting to the impact caused by the floods.
Overall no significant differences were recorded between the male and female FGDs. Nonetheless, women were more interested on short term needs such as the provision of food assistance and vegetable seeds, followed by poultry restocking. On the other hand, male’s focus was more on medium and long term needs related to enhancing the crop and livestock production through the provision of farm machineries and equipment, as well as by ensuring the rehabilitation or construction of additional rural facilities (processing, etc.). Both groups of men and women were very much interested in the provision of trainings. Female respondents emphasized the importance of having trainings on marketing and rearing of small
livestock (mainly chicken) as well as post-harvest processing technologies. Whereas, male
respondents were keen to receive trainings on improved crops technics and livestock production.
Short term needs
Generally, to restore crop production, the provision of seeds / fertilizers was indicated as the most important priority by over 98 percent of the respondents, followed by supply of small agricultural tools and machineries (above 45 percent) in addition to others needs such tree planting, storage bags and protection from wild animals (Figure 15). In regards to livestock, over 95 percent of respondents identified provision of vaccines / medicines as the most important need, followed by increase access to veterinary services (50 percent) and restocking of small animal (35 percent). Others needs include access to fodder and pastures as presented in Figure 15.
24
Fig. 15. Short term crop and livestock needs
Medium term needs
Training on improved production technologies was mentioned as first priority for both the crop and livestock components. Whereas, rehabilitation of traditional irrigation schemes,
followed by provision of agro-inputs and storage facilities (containers, bags, etc.) to reactivate crop production and reduce post-harvest losses, was mentioned by 58 and 46 percent of respondents respectively (Figure 16). Others reported needs consisted in access to credits and markets, and resolution of agro pastoralist conflicts. On the other hand, distribution of improved breeds of animal, especially cattle, was reported by 39 percent of respondents, followed by provision of fodder seeds and animal feed (57 percent).
Construction of animal shelters and water reservoirs, was also indicated as an important medium term needs by 29 and 36 percent of respondents respectively.
Others reported needs refer to management of pasture land and construction of milk collection centers (Figure 16).
25 Fig. 16. Medium term crop and livestock needs
Long-term needs
Establishment of new irrigation schemes and construction of animal dips were the first
priorities for the long term needs for 77 percent and 82 percent of the respondents respectively. In addition to enhance the storage of harvested crops and their marketability, construction of warehouses and linkages to market places were also indicated as key needs. Whereas, to increase crop production, provision of agricultural machineries, mainly tractors, and access to credit were also reported as long-term needs.
Other requests include trees seeds for planting and biogas equipment. In order to boost livestock production and reduce the transmission of animal diseases, 82 percent of respondents indicated the need to construct dips, followed by construction of water reservoirs (66 percent), trainings on crops / animal products processing (31 percent), construction of storage facilities (46 percent) and others needs which include access to credit, formation of livestock keeper groups and provision of processing equipment (Figure 17).
26 Fig. 17. Long term need
Recovery and rehabilitation interventions for rebuilding livelihoods
The following proposed interventions are directly linked to the floods’ effects. Their implementation will help addressing the needs of the affected population in order to reestablish their livelihoods and rehabilitate the damages endured.
Short terms interventions (up to 6 months)
Short term intervention aims at quickly restoring the capacities of the affected population to produce food and income. This will avoid further deterioration of the food security / nutrition situation as well as guarantee the reduction of animal destocking and the depletion of additional productive assets. In this regards the main interventions should focus on:
Provision of crops or vegetable seeds packages, especially fast growing and improved varieties, as well as hand tools to support the reactivation of the agricultural production.
Restocking of poultry together with provision of vaccines against Newcastle disease and animal feed, mainly to women headed households.
Distribution of fodder seeds for specific fodder production (i.e. alfalfa, sasbania and sorghum).
Delivery of food assistance to the most affected households through in-kind, voucher or cash mechanisms.
Establishment of Food or Cash for Work activities in order to rehabilitating local agricultural infrastructures, mainly roads and irrigation schemes.
Provision of storage bags / bins to reduce post-harvest losses and enhance quality and conservation of food commodities.
27 Medium term interventions (up to 12 months
Medium term interventions should be designed towards the enhancement of crops and livestock production in order to guarantee full recovery of those affected communities with the final aim of increasing their capacity to produce food and income. As such these interventions should focus on:
Support the implementation of vaccination campaigns for bigger animals (cattle), especially against Blue Nile Valley Fever and Foot and Mouth diseases.
Establish community seed banks to ensure higher conservation and diminished losses.
Improve the provision of extension and veterinary services and assist larger proportion of the population.
Provide training sessions on improved crop production as well as marketing in order to increase crop diversification, adoption of short cycle and more resistant varieties, storage and transport of food commodities.
Deliver trainings on animal production including introduction of improved cattle breeds, chicken rearing, as well as identification and control of animal disease.
Provide training sessions on post-harvest processing techniques for both crops and animal products.
Long term interventions (up to 18 months)
Long term interventions requiring more time for their implementation should also be taken in to account and specifically focus on:
Construction of animal dips to facilitate veterinary treatment thus reducing the formation and spreading of animal diseases.
Construction of metal silos for food and seeds storage to enhance their preservation and ensure some quality standards.
Provision of improved breeds of cattle to enhance production of milk and meat.
Provision of farm machineries and post-harvest processing equipment to increase production and income as well as reduce losses.
Improve market linkages and accessibility through construction of roads, introduction of regulations for the transport of commodities, etc.
Construction and rehabilitation of drainage systems and irrigation schemes as well as leveling of agricultural land to avoid water logging and allow the continuation of crop production and the enhancement of crop productivity.
Promote a fully-fledged watershed management in order to reduce the associated risks
of flooding of the agricultural land through - tree planting, land use management plans, riverbank maintenance, construction of dams, etc.
Development oriented interventions
In order to mitigate the effect of future similar disaster and ensure proper response to these events it is of imperative importance to:
Establish a proper early warning system at all level (national, regional, Zonal, district / municipality/kebele).
Create awareness at community level on early warning and disaster risk reduction, management and mitigation.
Develop an integrated and standardized methodology and guidelines to conduct post-disaster needs assessments with special emphasis on the agriculture sector, which is usually one of the most affected sectors.
28
Build the government capacity at central, regional and district / municipality level -targeting staff of the line ministries but also those from the Disaster Management Department - specifically on: disaster risk reduction and management, preparedness, post-disaster needs assessments and response planning.
Establish a contingency fund in order to be able to implement needs assessments and response plans as well as quickly releasing emergency stocks which includes:
food and seeds in addition to other relief items.
Undertake a national study to identify disaster risk hotspots and propose mechanism / means of preventing and reducing the impact.
Projected Likely Scenario and conclusion
The “El-Niño’s” event is expected to continue throughout the country, probably resulting in additional floods as indicated by weather forecasts from the Ethiopian Meteorological Agency (EMA), which might have further negative implications on crop and animal production while affecting the livelihoods of additional vulnerable people. These events are projected to occur during the period of April and May 2016/17, which are considered critical months for the development of key staple crops such as maize, rice, sorghum, millet, etc.
In addition to the damages and losses caused by the floods across the assessed regions, released crop estimates are showing that the ongoing maize harvest for the short agricultural season “kiremt” in uni-modal rainfall areas, contributing usually to approximately 15 percent of the total annual cereal production, is expected to have a below-average production. The main reasons are attributed to the erratic rains registered in the country at the beginning of the agricultural season.
Agricultural labor demand in the upcoming main agricultural season will continue to provide some income for the most poor and labor-dependent households. However it will not compensate the losses encountered during the short rainy season. Overall, the food security situation in other areas of the country remains favorable in both bi-modal and uni- modal rainfalls areas. Despite this, some food insecurity continue to endure in the some uni-modal Rift Valley & Blue Nile regions of Ethiopia, which experienced lower crop production during the last summer season (2014/15). Households in these areas are currently at Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity level. In addition, the findings of the assessments indicate that some areas affected by floods were currently in need of food assistance, due to the scarcity of food at household level resulting from the failure of their agricultural production. This situation might even get worse if the effects of the “El- Niño” will continue as announced and anticipated, leading to an increase in food insecurity also towards other areas which are usually considered food secure. Indeed, implication on the nutrition status of the affected people also needs to be considered and further assessed since as demonstrated from the results of the assessment, many people have already engaged in negative copying mechanisms such as reducing number of meal per day or relying on less preferred food. In conclusion, it is imperative to continue monitoring the agro-meteorological situation and conduct an in-depth crop, food security and nutrition assessment at the end of the current main agricultural season, in order to estimate the final implications of the “El-Niño’s” effect on the livelihoods of the most vulnerable and affected population.
Acknowledgements
The assessment team wish to express its sincere gratitude to the Bureau of Agriculture and Rural Development, the President’s Office, Regional Administration and Local
29 Government Officials (Zone, Woreda, Kebele), the local communities and the Disaster Management Department (DMD) for their support throughout the assessment of this work.
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