TORSTEN HAGERSTRAND
INNOVATION DIFFUSION
AS A SPATIAL PROCESS
Postscript and translation by Allan Pred
Translated with the assistance of Greta Haag
THE UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO PRESS CHICAGO AND LONDON
CONTENTS
X
Problem and Methodology 1 1. The Systematic Study of the Distributional Changes of
Cultural Elements 1 1.1. General Framing of the Problem 1 1.2. Scope of the Problem 5 1.3. The Spatial Viewpoint 6 2. The Concept of Distribution 7 2.1. Physical and Social Distributions 7 2.2. Social Group Distribution 8 2.3. The Social Distribution as a Basis for Combining Elements 9 2.4. Social Distributions and the Study of Distributional Changes
Normally Regarded as Highly Dissimilar 10 3. The Indicators 11 3.1. The Choice of Indicators 11 3.2. Characteristics of the Indicators 12 3.3. Complementary Elements 13 4. Selection of the Study Area 14 4.1. General Considerations 14 4.2. Southern Ostergotland 15 5. Cartographic Methods 16 5.1. The Base Map. . .' 16 5.2. Coordination of the Land-Use Map and the Housing Census 17 5.3. Coordination of the Housing Census with the Agricultural
Census and Other Source Materials 19 5.4. The Isarithmic Maps 19 5.5. Areal Units 20 5.6. Isarithmic Intervals 24 5.7. Interpolation 24 II. The Study Area's Conversion Bases 28 6. Population 28 6.1. Population Density 28 6.2. Occupational Structure 32 7. Cultivated Holdings 33 7.1. Size-Groups 33 7.2. The Mix of Size-Groups 37 7.3. The Grouping of Cultivation Centers 39 8. Dwelling Units 42 8.1. Building vs. Dwelling Units 42 8.2. Summary Classification of Dwelling Units 44
vii
Vlll CONTENTS
III. The Agricultural Indicators 46 9. State Subsidized Pastures 46 9.1. The Introduction of Pasture Grazing 46 9.2. Governmental Measures 47 9.3. The Inception of Pasture Grazing in Kinda-Ydre 49 9.4. The Choice of the Grazing-Improvement Subsidy as an Indicator. . . 51 9.5. Source Materials 53 9.6. The Conversion Base of the Relative Maps 54 9.7. The Growth Curve 56 9.8. Map Commentary 57 9.9. Instructional Courses and Acceptances 65 9.10. Grazing-Improvement Subsidies and the Total Distribution
of Pastures 67 9.11. The Merits of the Grazing-Improvement Subsidy as a
Sample Innovation 70 10. The Control of Bovine Tuberculosis 71 10.1. Distribution of the Disease: Methods of Combat 71 10.2. An Outline of Measures Taken by the State and the Rural
Economy Association 72 10.3. The Introduction of TB Controls into Kinda-Ydre 74 10.4. The Date of Inception of TB Controls as an Indicator 78 10.5. Source Materials 80 10.6. The Conversion Base of the Relative Maps 81 10.7. The Growth Curve 82 10.8. Map Commentary 84 10.9. Public Measures and the Diffusion Process 88 10.10. The Initial Areas and Propaganda 92 10.11. The Use of TB Controls as a Sample Innovation 96 11. Soil Mapping 98 11.1. Measures Taken by the State and the Rural Economy Association. . . 98 11.2. Introduction of the Innovation 100 11.3. Source Materials: The Conversion Base 102 11.4. Map Commentary 103 IV. The General Indicators 105 12. Postal Checking Services 105 12.1. Introduction of Postal Checking Services in Sweden 105 12.2. Significant Dates in the History of Postal Checking Services 105 12.3. Introduction to the General Public 106 12.4. Source Materials and Mapping 106 12.5. Categories of Postal Checking Service Users 107 12.6. The Conversion Base of the Relative Maps 109 12.7. The Growth Curve 109 12.8. Map Commentary 109 12.9. Postal Checking Services as an Indicator 115 13. The Automobile 115 13.1. The Invention: Introduction into Sweden 115 13.2. Legislation 116 13.3. Source Materials and Mapping 117 13.4. Introduction into Kinda-Ydre: Social-Group Distribution 118 13.5. The Conversion Base 121 13.6. Map Commentary 121
CONTENTS IX 13.7. The Automobile as an Indicator 125 14. The Telephone 126 14.1. The Telephone as an Indicator 126 14.2. Source Materials 127 14.3. The Growth Curve 129 14.4. Map Commentary 130 V. Model 1 132 15. Introduction 132 15.1. General Observations 132 15.2. Characteristics of Innovation Diffusion 133 16. Model Building Methodology 134
16.1. The Analysis of Distributional Changes as Opposed to the
Analysis of Distributions 134 16.2. Playing with "Random Numbers" 135 17. Characteristics of the Model Area 136 17.1. Model Areas vs. Actual Areas 136 17.2. Size and Division of the Model Area 137 17.3. Population of the Model Area 137 17.4. The Model Area's Communications 137 18. Basic Assumptions for Model 1 138 18.1. Information 138 18.2. The Rank Order of Acceptances 140 18.3. The Mapping of Selected Points in Time 141 18.4. Summary of Basic Assumptions 141 19. Procedure for Constructing Model 1 141 20. Discussion of Model 1 142 20.1. Random Distribution 142 20.2. Model I and the Agricultural Indicators 145 VI. The Hypothesis of Unevenly Distributed "Receptiveness" 149 21. Introduction 149 21.1. General Observations 149 21.2. Related Literature 150 22. Farm Size and the Rank Order of Acceptances 151 22.1. TB Controls 151 22.2. The Grazing-Improvement Subsidy 156 22.3. Summary 157 23. "Receptiveness" vs. Information 158 23.1. The "Neighborhood" Effect 158 23.2. Private Information as a Primary Factor 163 VII. The Spatial Characteristics of Private Information 165 24. Introductory Discussion 165 24.1. The "Private Information Field" 165 24.2. The Private Information Field and the Social Atom 166 25. Migration as a Surrogate Measure of Private Information Fields 167 25.1. General Observations 167 25.2. Source Materials 170 25.3. Selection of Sample Test Areas and Time Periods 172 25.4. Map Commentary 174 25.5. Migratory Units 177 25.6. The Technique of Centering 179 25.7. The Centered Migration Fields 182
X CONTENTS
25.8. Occupational Composition of the Migrants 189 26. Telephone Traffic as an Indicator of the Private Information Field 190 26.1. General Observations 190 26.2. Source Materials 191 26.3. Number of Calls per Subscriber 192 26.4. Mapping Method 192 26.5. Map Commentary 197 26.6. A Detailed Comparison between Rural and Non-rural Fields as
Represented by Svenningeby and Kisa 201 26.7. The Normal Gradient 210 26.8. The Interweaving of Telephone-Call Fields 213 26.9. Contact Surpluses and Contact Deficits 220 27. Migration and Telephone Traffic: A Comparison 231
27.1. A Direct Comparison between the Migration and Telephone-
Call Fields of Two Parishes 231 27.2. A General Comparison between Observations Made in 25,
26, and 27.1. . . ., 234 28. Conclusions Regarding Private Information Fields 235 28.1. The Mean Information Field 235 28.2. Derivation of Hypothetical Individual Information Fields
from the Mean Field 238 28.3. Reservations 240 VIII. Model II 242 29. Introduction 242 29.1. The Group-bound Quality of Private Information 242 29.2. The Centered Migration Field as a Mean Field 242 29.3. Basic Assumptions 245 30. Model II a. . : 246 30.1. The Model Area and the Initial Situation 246 30.2. The Mean Information Field 247 30.3. Working Procedure 249 30.4. Commentary 251 31. Model Ilh 253 31.1. Model Area, Basic Assumptions, and Initial Situation 253 31.2. The Mean Information Field 253 31.3. Working Procedure 254 31.4. Commentary 255 32. Model II and the Agricultural Indicators 257 32.1. The Grazing-Improvement Subsidy 257 32.2. TB Controls 260 32.3. Soil Mapping 261 32.4. Summary 262 IX. Model III 263 33. Introduction 263 33.1. The Resistance Concept 263 33.2. Other Basic Assumptions 266 34. Model III a 267 34.1. Model Area, Initial Situation, and Mean Information Field 267 34.2. Working Procedure 267 34.3. Commentary 268 35. Model IIIb 268
CONTENTS XI 35.1. Model Area, Initial Situation, and Mean Information Field 268 35.2. Working Procedure 269 35.3. Commentary 271 36. Model III b and the Indicators 272 36.1. The Grazing-Improvement Subsidy. 272 36.2. TB Controls 274 36.3. Soil Mapping 276 36.4. The General Indicators 276 37. Further Discussion of Model Illb 277 37.1. Introduction 277 37.2. Resistance and the Rank Order of Acceptances 277 37.3. The Relationship between Initial Contact with the Innovation
and Acceptance 280 37.4. The Empirical Diffusion Processes Seen in Relation to Contact
Surpluses and Contact Deficits 282 37.5. On Testing the Model with a Real Population 284 X. A Supplement to the Indicators 286 38. Source Materials and Mapping 286 39. Dynamic vs. Static Interpretation ' 287 40. Innovation Centers 293 Postscript, by Allan Pred 299 The Background of Hdgerstrand's Work 302 The Significance of Hdgerstrand's Modeh 305 The Influence of Hdgerstrand's Work 310 The Dissection of Static Distributions 310 The Projection of Future Distributions 314 Analysis of the Past Genesis of Distributions 316 Future Prospects and Needs 319 Bibliography 325 Subject Index 331
