FIEF Working Paper Series 2004
No. 198
Microdata Evidence on Rent-Sharing
by
Mahmood Arai* and Fredrik Heyman
ΨAbstract
We examine the effect of firm profits on wages for individual workers while focusing on the empirical complications associated with estimating the extent of rent-sharing. Controlling for worker and firm fixed-effects and using several instruments to deal with the endogeneity of profits, we report results indicating that OLS-estimates strongly underestimate the effects of profits on wages. Moreover, the effect of profits on wages are estimated separately for firms with increasing and decreasing profits within a given time period. We find a positive and stable effect only in firms with increasing profits. This is in line with the idea that falling profits do not lead to wage cuts while increasing profits imply higher wages.
Keywords: Rent-Sharing; Matched employer- employee data JEL classification: D31; J31
December 15, 2004
* Department of Economics, Stockholm University, and FIEF, email: [email protected]
Ψ Trade Union Institute for Economic Research, FIEF, e-mail: [email protected]
We are grateful to Per Weidenman, MM Partner AB, for providing the balance-sheet data. We wish to thank Erling Barth, Lena Nekby, Mårten Palme, Kjell Salvanes, Juhana Vartiainen and Johnny Zetterberg for comments on an earlier version of this paper. We are also grateful to seminar participants at FIEF, the Research Institute for Industrial Economics (IUI), Uppsala University, Stockholm University and the Workshop on International Competition, Technical Progress and Productivity in Örebro. Fredrik Heyman thanks the Jan Wallander and Tom Hedelius Foundation for financial support.
4 Lqwurgxfwlrq
Hpslulfdo zrun rq wkh hhfw ri surwv rq zdjhv kdv wdnhq dv d vwduwlqj srlqw wkh edvlf wkhruhwlfdo frqmhfwxuh wkdw upv* delolw| wr sd| lv dq lpsruwdqw ghwhuplqdqw ri lqglylgxdo zdjhv1 Dffruglqj wr edujdlqlqj prghov/ lqglylgxdo zdjhv duh srvlwlyho| fruuhodwhg zlwk up surwv +vhh h1j1 Rvzdog +4<;5/ 4<;8, dqg Pdqqlqj +4<<7,,1
Wkhuh lv d erg| ri hpslulfdo olwhudwxuh ghdolqj zlwk wkh lpsdfw ri surwv rq zdjhv edvhg rq djjuhjdwhg gdwd14 Wkh gdwd xvhg lq
wkhvh vwxglhv duh djjuhjdwhg rq wkh zrunhu dqg2ru wkh up vlgh/ vxssuhvvlqj zlwklq lqgxvwu| yduldwlrq dqg2ru qhjohfwlqj zrunhu khwhurjhqhlw|1 Ihz uhfhqw vwxglhv xvh plfurgdwd wr dqdo|}h wkh lpsdfw ri surwv rq zdjhv15 Wkh sxusrvh ri wklv vwxg| lv wr h{0
dplqh wkh hhfw ri up0ohyho surwv rq lqglylgxdo zdjhv1 Zh xvh wzr odujh dqg xqltxh pdwfkhg hpsor|hu0hpsor|hh gdwd vhwv1 Wkh uvw vdpsoh fryhuv pruh wkdq 4:3/333 Vzhglvk hpsor|hhv iru 4<<4 dqg 4<<8/ pdwfkhg zlwk wkhlu hpsor|lqj up*v edodqfh0vkhhw lq0 irupdwlrq1 Wkh vhfrqg vdpsoh fryhuv durxqg d ploolrq hpsor|hhv dqg wkhlu hpsor|lqj upv iru wkh shulrg 4<<9053331 Wkh pdwfkhg gdwd frqwdlq ghwdlohg lqirupdwlrq rq lqglylgxdo dqg up fkdudf0 whulvwlfv/ lqfoxglqj lqglylgxdo xqhpsor|phqw h{shulhqfh dv zhoo dv dqqxdo edodqfh0vkhhw lqirupdwlrq dqg h{solflw vxuyh| lqirupdwlrq rq surgxfw0ghpdqg hodvwlflw|1
Wkh pdlq sureohp lq h{dplqlqj wkh lpsdfw ri surwv rq zdjhv lv krz wr ghdo zlwk wkh qxphurxv hpslulfdo sureohpv wkdw dulvh lq lghqwli|lqj wklv hhfw1 Rqh qhhgv wr frqwuro iru lqglylgxdo khw0 hurjhqhlw| lpso|lqj wkdw uhshdwhg lqirupdwlrq rq lqglylgxdov duh
Vhh Ndw} dqg Vxpphuv +4<;<,/ dqg Eodqfk rzhu hw do1 +4<<9, rq wkh XV1 Vhh dovr Derzg dqg Ohplhx{ +4<<6, dqg Fkulvwrghv dqg Rvzdog +4<<5, zkr xvh Fdqdgldq frqwudfw gdwd1 Iru Hxurshdq vwxglhv/ vhh Eodqfk rzhuhw do1 +4<<3,/ Kropoxqg dqg ]hwwhuehuj +4<<4,/ Qlfnhoo hw do1 +4<<7,/ dqg Kloguhwk dqg Rvzdog +4<<:,1 Iru d uhfhqw vwxg| vhh Hvwhyær dqg Whyolq +5336,1
Derzghw do1 +4<<<, xvh plfurgdwd rq zdjhv dqg surwv iru wkh sulydwh vhfwru lq Iudqfh1 Dudl +5336, xvhv d vpdoo pdwfkhg zrunhu0up vdpsoh iru Vzhghq1 Pdujrolv dqg Vdoydqhv +5334, h{dplqh plfurgdwd rq pdohv lq pdqxidfwxulqj lq Iudqfh dqg Qruzd|1 Pduwlqv +5336, h{dplqhv d odujh Sruwxjxhvh pdwfkhg gdwd vhw1
qhhghg1 Dqrwkhu lvvxh lv wr vhsdudwh wkh lpsdfw ri surwv iurp rwkhu jurxs0hhfwv dw wkh up ohyho vxfk dv wkh hhfwv dvvrfldwhg zlwk upv* zdjh srolflhv1 Lw lv wkhq hvvhqwldo wr kdyh lqirupdwlrq rq doo ru dw ohdvw pdq| ri wkh hpsor|hhv lq d up lq rughu wr h{dplqh wkh lpsruwdqfh ri up hhfwv1
Wkh wulfnlhvw lvvxh lv/ krzhyhu/ wkh hqgrjhqhlw| ri surwv/ gxh wr wzr vrxufhv ri uhyhuvh fdxvdolw|1 Wkh hhfw ri surwv rq zdjhv fdq eh xqghuhvwlpdwhg gxh wr wkh dffrxqwlqj uhodwlrqvkls ehwzhhq zdjhv dqg surwv/ lpso|lqj wkdw kljkhu zdjhv ohdg wr orzhu suri0 lwv1 Pruhryhu/ dffruglqj wr wkhrulhv ri lqfhqwlyh sd| dqg ydulrxv yhuvlrqv ri h!flhqf| zdjh wkhru|/ kljkhu sd| lpso| kljkhu suri0 lwv16 Ehvlghv odjjhg surwv/ suhylrxv vwxglhv kdyh xvhg lqvwux0
phqwv dw wkh lqgxvwu| ohyho/ vxfk dv lpsruw vhoolqj sulfhv +Derzg dqg Ohplhx{ +4<<6,,/ hqhuj| frvwv +Eodqfk rzhu hw do1 +4<<9,, dqg lqsxw0rxwsxw wdeohv +Hvwhyær dqg Whyolq +5336,,1
D sureohp zlwk wkh LY0phwkrg lv wkdw li rqh ryhuvhhv d wkhr0 uhwlfdoo| plqru vrxufh ri fruuhodwlrq ehwzhhq wkh lqvwuxphqw dqg wkh huuru whup lq wkh vhfrqg vwhs uhjuhvvlrq/ uhvxowv fdq eh eldvhg dqg lqvwuxphqwdwlrq grhv qrw vroyh wkh hqgrjhqhlw| sureohp1 E| xvlqj vhyhudo lqvwuxphqwv zh gr qrw kdyh wr uho| rq wkh ulvn| vwudwhj| ri uho|lqj rq d vlqjoh lqvwuxphqw rqo|1
Rxu gdwd fryhu uhshdwhg revhuydwlrqv iru lqglylgxdov wkdw do0 orz xv wr frqwuro iru lqglylgxdo khwhurjhqhlw|1 Wkh odujh qxpehu ri revhuydwlrqv zlwklq hdfk up dovr pdnh lw srvvleoh wr h{dplqh up hhfwv1 Pruhryhu/ zh kdyh lqirupdwlrq rq surgxfw ghpdqg hodvwlflw| dw wkh hvwdeolvkphqw ohyho dv zhoo dv h{sruw uhyhqxh dqg hqhuj| frvwv dw wkh up ohyho1 Wkhvh phdvxuhv duh surshu fdqgl0 gdwhv iru zrunlqj dv ydolg lqvwuxphqwv iru surwv vlqfh wkh| vkrxog dhfw surwv exw qrw zdjhv rwkhu wkdq yld surwv1
Wkh frqwulexwlrq ri wklv sdshu lv wr surylgh hylghqfh rq wkh lpsdfw ri up0ohyho surwv rq lqglylgxdo zdjhv edvhg rq pdwfkhg hpsor|hu0hpsor|hh gdwd dffrxqwlqj iru zrunhu dqg up khwhur0 jhqhlw| dv zhoo dv wkh hqgrjhqhlw| ri surwv e| uho|lqj rq vhyhudo
Iru h!flhqf| zdjh wkhrulhv/ vhh Dnhuori dqg \hoohq +4<;9,1
qhz lqvwuxphqwv1 Wkh frpprq sudfwlfh lq wkh olwhudwxuh lv wr xvh lqvwuxphqwv iru surwv dw djjuhjdwhv ohyhov1 Rxu vwxg| lv wkh uvw wr xvh vhyhudo vhw ri lqvwuxphqwv dw wkh up ohyho17
Wkh uhvxowv ri rxu vwxg| lpso| d srvlwlyh hhfw ri surwv rq zdjhv wkdw lv urexvw dfurvv ydulrxv prgho vshflfdwlrqv1 Rxu hyl0 ghqfh surylghv vwurqj vxssruw iru wkh h{lvwhqfh ri uhqw0vkdulqj dv wklv hhfw rq zdjhv lv irxqg gxulqj wkh 4<<3v= d shulrg fkdudfwhu0 l}hg e| yhu| glhuhqw exvlqhvv f|foh skdvhv1 Xvlqj rxu lqvwuxphqwv iru surwv |lhog uhvxowv lqglfdwlqj wkdw ROV0hvwlpdwhv odujho| xq0 ghuhvwlpdwh wkh lpsdfw ri surwv rq zdjhv1 Pruhryhu/ zh qg d srvlwlyh dqg vwdeoh hhfw rqo| lq upv zlwk lqfuhdvlqj surwv lq olqh zlwk wkh lghd wkdw idoolqj surwv gr qrw ohdg wr zdjh fxwv zkloh lqfuhdvlqj surwv lpso| kljkhu zdjhv1
Wkh uhpdlqghu ri wkh sdshu lv rujdql}hg dv iroorzv1 Gdwd duh ghvfulehg lq Vhfwlrq 5 dqg wkh hpslulfdo vhwxs lv glvfxvvhg lq Vhf0 wlrq 61 Edvlf uhvxowv rq wkh hhfw ri surwv rq zdjhv duh uhsruwhg lq Vhfwlrq 71 Lqglylgxdo dqg up khwhurjhqhlw| lv ghdow zlwk lq vhfwlrq 8 dqg wkh hqgrjhqhlw| lvvxhv duh dgguhvvhg lq Vhfwlrq 91 Ilqdoo|/ wkh sdshu lv frqfoxghg lq Vhfwlrq :1
5 Gdwd
Zh xvh wzr vhw ri pdwfkhg hpsor|hu0hpsor|hh gdwd edvhg rq wkh vdph vrxufh ri uhjlvwhuhg lqirupdwlrq18 Zh vwxg| upv zlwk dw
ohdvw 63 hpsor|hhv1 Wkh ruljlq ri wkh 4<<404<<8 vdpsoh lv wkh 4<<4 Vzhglvk Ohyho ri Olylqj Vxuyh| +OQX, zklfk lv d 424333 udqgrp vdpsoh ri wkh Vzhglvk srsxodwlrq ehwzhhq wkh djhv 4; dqg 981 Doo lqglylgxdov lq OQX 4<<4 duh pdwfkhg zlwk wkhlu hpsor|lqj hvwde0 olvkphqwv dqg upv wkurxjk xqltxh rujdql}dwlrq qxpehuv1 Wkhvh hvwdeolvkphqwv wkhq irup wkh edvlv ri wkh Vzhglvk Hvwdeolvkphqw Vxuyh| +DSX, zkhuh d odujh qxpehu ri dgplqlvwudwlyh gdwd iru doo lqglylgxdov zrunlqj lq DSX0hvwdeolvkphqwv lq 4<<4 ru 4<<8
Vhh dovr Dudl +5336, dqg Pduwlqv +5336, iru lqvwuxphqwv dw wkh up ohyho1
Iru d ghvfulswlrq ri wkh gdwd/ vhh Dsshqgl{1
duh froohfwhg/ iruplqj d odujhu lqglylgxdo vdpsoh19 Wr hqvxuh wkdw
rxu vdpsoh lv uhsuhvhqwdwlyh/ lw lv frpsduhg wr dqrwkhu udqgrpo| gudzq vdpsoh ri lqglylgxdov lq 4<<4 dqg 4<<81 D frpsdulvrq ri vdpsoh phdqv iru lqglylgxdo fkdudfwhulvwlfv iurp wkh wzr vdpsohv lqglfdwhv qr vljqlfdqw glhuhqfhv1
Edodqfh0vkhhw lqirupdwlrq lv dydlodeoh iru wkh shulrg 4<;:04<<81:
Wkh gdwd rq hpsor|hhv duh pdwfkhg wr r!fldo edodqfh vkhhw gdwd iru wkh hpsor|lqj upv wkurxjk wkh Vzhglvk v|vwhp ri frusr0 udwh uhjlvwudwlrq qxpehuv lghqwli|lqj wkh hpsor|lqj up1 Ehiruh pdwfklqj lqglylgxdov wr upv lq wkh pdwfkhg zrunhu0up vdpsoh/ wkrvh upv lq wkh edodqfh0vkhhw gdwd wkdw zhuh revhuyhg iru ohvv wkdq wzr |hduv zhuh uhpryhg1
Wkh 4<<905333 vdpsoh frqvlvwv ri lqirupdwlrq iurp d odujh gdwdedvh froohfwhg dw ILHI/ xvlqj uhjlvwhu edvhg gdwd iurp Vwdwlv0 wlfv Vzhghq1 Wzr gdwd vhwv iurp wkh ILHI gdwdedvh/ rqh zlwk lqirupdwlrq rq lqglylgxdov dqg rqh zlwk lqirupdwlrq rq upv/ duh xvhg lq wklv sdshu1 Wkhvh gdwd vhwv duh pdwfkhg wrjhwkhu e| phdqv ri xqltxh lghqwlw| qxpehuv1 Wkh up0edvhg gdwd vhw frq0 wdlqv qdqfldo gdwd dqg rwkhu lqirupdwlrq dw wkh up ohyho1 Wkh gdwd vhw fryhuv doo upv/ dssur{lpdwho| 633/333 lq qxpehu/ lq wkh hqwluh Vzhglvk hfrqrp|1 Wkh lqglylgxdo0edvhg gdwd vhw frq0 wdlqv ghwdlohg lqirupdwlrq iurp r!fldo uhjlvwhuv rq d yhu| odujh uhsuhvhqwdwlyh vdpsoh ri hpsor|hg lqglylgxdov/ fryhulqj durxqg 5 ploolrq hpsor|hhv hdfk |hdu1
Gdwd rq zdjhv/ kxpdq fdslwdo dqg mre fkdudfwhulvwlfv iru erwk wkh 4<<404<<8 dqg wkh 4<<905333 gdwd vhwv duh iurp Vwdwlvwlfv Vzh0 ghq dv zhoo dv iurp gdwd froohfwhg e| wkh Vzhglvk Wudgh xqlrq Frqihghudwlrq +OR, dqg wkh Vzhglvk Hpsor|huv* Frqihghudwlrq +VDI,1 Zdjhv duh frpsxwhg dv ixoo0wlph htxlydohqw suh0wd{ prqwko| vdodulhv1 Wkhvh gdwd duh pdwfkhg zlwk lqglylgxdo xqhpsor|phqw uhfrugv iru wkh shulrg 4<<504<<7 iurp wkh Qdwlrqdo Oderu Pdunhw Erdug +DPV Kçqghovhgdwdedv,1 Rxu gdwd doorz xv wr wudfn lqgl0
Iru d ghvfulswlrq ri wkh Vzhglvk Hvwdeolvkphqw Vxuyh| +DSX,/ vhh oh Judqghw do1 +4<<9,1 Wkhvh gdwd zhuh pdgh dydlodeoh e| Shu Zhlghqpdq/ PP Sduwqhu1
ylgxdov iurp 4<<5 wr 4<<7 dqg ghqh d glfkrwrprxv yduldeoh htxdo wr rqh zkhq wkh lqglylgxdo lv uhjlvwhuhg dv xqhpsor|hg vrph wlph gxulqj wklv shulrg dqg }hur rwkhuzlvh1 Xvlqj lqglylgxdov* xqhp0 sor|phqw h{shulhqfh uhdvrqdeo| fdswxuhv wkh uhodwlyh iudjlolw| ri lqglylgxdov wr hpsor|phqw vkrfnv dqg wkxv/ zrunv dv d frqwuro iru lqglylgxdo khwhurjhqhlw|1
Dv d phdvxuh ri surwv/ zh xvh dffrxqwlqj surwv/ diwhu fdslwdo ghsuhfldwlrq/ shu hpsor|hh1 Wklv surw phdvxuh lv fohduo| revhuy0 deoh iru erwk wkh hpsor|hu dqg wkh hpsor|hhv/ dv zhoo dv iru rwkhu sduwlhv rxwvlgh wkh up1 Wklv/ wrjhwkhu zlwk wkh idfw wkdw lw lv d zlgho| xvhg phdvxuh ri up shuirupdqfh/ pdnhv lw d vxlwdeoh ydul0 deoh iru lqyhvwljdwlqj wkh uhodwlrqvkls ehwzhhq surwv dqg zdjhv1 Iru wkh 4<<4 dqg 4<<8 vdpsoh zh kdyh up surwv iru doo |hduv iurp 4<;: wr 4<<81 Wr xvh doo lqirupdwlrq rq surwv/ zh frpsxwh irxu |hdu dyhudjhv dv d phdvxuh ri surwdelolw|1 Iru wkh 4<<905333 vdpsoh zh xvh |hduo| surwv1
Zh dovr kdyh lqirupdwlrq rq d phdvxuh ri surgxfw0ghpdqg hodvwlflw|/ up h{sruw uhyhqxhv dqg up0ohyho hqhuj| frvwv1 Wkhvh yduldeohv duh xvhg dv lqvwuxphqwv iru surwv1 Wkh lqirupdwlrq rq surgxfw0ghpdqg hodvwlflw| ruljlqdwhv iurp dq hvwdeolvkphqw vxu0 yh| rq d vxe0vdpsoh ri upv lq 4<<41 Ilupv zhuh dvnhg wr uhsruw d suhglfwhg vdohv uhvsrqvh iru wkh qh{w 9 prqwkv wr d k|srwkhwlfdo surgxfw sulfh lqfuhdvh ri 43 shufhqw/ udqjlqj iurp hvvhqwldoo| xq0 fkdqjhg vdohv wr d pruh wkdq 43 ( gurs lq vdohv1 Uhsruwhg dqvzhuv wr wklv txhvwlrq jlyh xv d vkruw0whup phdvxuh ri surgxfw0ghpdqg hodvwlflw|1 Hqhuj| frvwv/ dydlodeoh iru upv zlwk dw ohdvw 83 hp0 sor|hhv/ duh upv* wrwdo frvwv iru hqhuj| zkloh h{sruw uhyhqxhv duh uhyhqxhv iurp vdohv wr upv orfdwhg rxwvlgh Vzhghq1 Hqhuj| frvwv dqg h{sruw uhyhqxhv duh dydlodeoh iru wkh shulrg 4<<9053331
6 Hpslulfdo Vhwxs
Zh vwduw iurp wkh iroorzlqj olqhdu zdjh ixqfwlrq dv ghulyhg lq suhylrxv vwxglhv +vhh h1j1 Eodqfk rzhu hw do1 +4<<9, dqg Kloguhwk
dqg Rvzdog +4<<:,,1
7n EZ? +4,
Zdjhv duh d ixqfwlrq ri zrunhuv* surgxfwlylw| uhodwhg fkdudf0 whulvwlfv dqg xqhpsor|phqw ulvn dv frpsrqhqwv ri 7/ surwv shu hpsor|hh Z? dqg wkh uhodwlyh edujdlqlqj srzhu ri wkh hp0 sor|hhv1 Wkh zdjh htxdwlrq deryh fdq eh vshflhg hpslulfdoo| dv iroorzv1 'Snk nk nj n0 +5, k ' nZ nj7 nv +6,
Zdjhv dqg d yhfwru ri lqglylgxdo fkdudfwhulvwlfv duh ghqrwhg dv dqg j/
uhvshfwlyho| iru lqglylgxdo / lq up dw wlph |1 Wkh {hg ryhudoo lqwhufhsw lv ghqrwhg dv S1 Wklv vshflfdwlrq doorzv lqglylgxdo hhfwv/ k / dv zhoo dv up
hhfwv/ k1 Zkloh zh wkurxjkrxw wkh sdshu dvvxph lqglylgxdo hhfwv dv {hg/
zh hoderudwh zlwk wkh up hhfwv vwduwlqj iurp wkh vshflfdwlrq lq htxdwlrq +6,1 Wkh up hhfw ghshqg rq up surwv Z dqg jurxs0ohyho yduldeohv frpsxwhg
dv dyhudjhv ri lqglylgxdo fkdudfwhulvwlfv lqfoxghg lq j dqg ghqrwhg dv j71
Ixuwkhupruh/ wkhuh pljkw h{lvw up hhfwv wkdw zh fdqqrw vshfli| gxh wr d odfn ri lqirupdwlrq1 Wkhvh hhfwv duh fdswxuhg e| wkh udqgrp whup v1 Wklv
vshflfdwlrq doorzv zdjhv wr ydu| dfurvv upv gxh wr glhuhqfhv lq up surwv/ frpsrvlwlrq hhfwv dv zhoo dv d vhw ri xqnqrzq yduldeohv fdswxuhg e| v1 Wkh
udqgrp huuruv duh dvvxphg wr eh qrupdoo| glvwulexwhg1 Wkh udqgrp huuru 0
lv dvvxphg wr eh _ zkloh v lv ghshqghqw zlwklq jurxsv vlqfh lw lv frpprq
wr hyhu| zrunhu lq wkh hpsor|lqj up 1 Lqlwldoo|/ zkhq vwxg|lqj up +jurxs, hhfwv/ vxfk dv wkh hhfwv ri vnloo frpsrvlwlrq dqg xqhpsor|phqw rq zdjhv/ zh dvvxph udqgrp up hhfwv exw odwhu lq wkh vwxg| pryh rq wr dvvxph {hg up hhfwv zkhq zh duh lqwhuhvwhg lq uhprylqj wkhvh hhfwv1
Zh uvw hvwlpdwh wkh deryh prgho xvlqj gdwd iru furvv vhfwlrqv rq 4<<4/ 4<<8 dqg 5333/ vhwwlqj v ' f dqg ' f1 Wkh lqglylgxdo fkdudfwhulvwlfv
frqwuroohg iru duh jhqghu/ hgxfdwlrqdo ohyho/ oderu pdunhw h{shulhqfh/ eoxh0 froodu vwdwxv/ vhqlrulw| dw wkh hvwdeolvkphqw ohyho dqg lqgxvwu| d!oldwlrq1 Iru wkh 4<<8 vdpsoh zh dovr lqfoxgh lqglylgxdo xqhpsor|phqw uhfrugv gxulqj 4<<50 4<<71 Lq d vhfrqg vwhs zh doorz iru dqg hvwlpdwh wkh prgho e| pd{lpxp
olnholkrrg lq d pl{hg0hhfwv prgho vhw0xs wkdw dovr |lhogv suhglfwhg yduldqfhv iru wkh jurxs0ohyho huuruv1
Furvv0vhfwlrq hvwlpdwlrq pd| vxhu iurp eldvhv gxh wr rplwwhg yduldeohv/ fruuhodwhg zlwk wkh surw phdvxuh1 Kdylqj gdwd iru vhyhudo |hduv dqg iru doo lqglylgxdov lq wkh up zrxog hqdeoh xv wr frqwuro iru lqglylgxdo wlph0 lqyduldqw khwhurjhqhlw| dv zhoo dv up0hhfwv lq d vlqjoh {hg0hhfw hvwlpdwlrq +vhh Derzg hw do1 +4<<<,,1 D sureohp/ krzhyhu/ lv wkdw wkh lghqwlfdwlrq ri up0hhfwv uholhv rq zrunhuv zkr fkdqjh hpsor|huv1 Wklv lv ydolg li zrunhuv* up0fkdqjhv duh h{rjhqrxv dqg udqgrp1 Wklv lv qrw olnho| wr eh wkh fdvh +vhh Jleerqv dqg Ndw} +4<<5, iru d glvfxvvlrq ri wklv lvvxh,1 Zh surfhhg lqvwhdg dv iroorzv1
Zh hvwlpdwh pl{hg0hhfwv prghov iru rxu furvv vhfwlrq gdwd h{solflwo| h{0 dplqlqj wkh up0jurxs hhfwv1 Wkh jurxs hhfwv lpso| wkdw vrph upv sd| kljkhu zdjhv wkdq rwkhuv dqg wkdw zdjhv fdq ydu| zlwk surwv/ jhqghu dqg vnloo frpsrvlwlrq/ sdvw jurxs xqhpsor|phqw h{shulhqfh dv zhoo dv d vhw ri xqnqrzq idfwruv fdswxuhg e| wkh up huuru whup1
Zh wkhq surfhhg wr frqwuro iru zrunhu khwhurjhqhlw| dqg up0hhfwv1 Zh ghdo zlwk wklv srwhqwldo sureohp e| hvwlpdwlqj lqglylgxdo {hg0hhfwv htxdwlrqv wr h{dplqh wkh lpsdfw ri fkdqjhv lq surwv ehwzhhq wkh shulrgv 4<;:04<<3 dqg 4<<404<<7 rq fkdqjhv lq lqglylgxdo zdjhv ehwzhhq 4<<4 dqg 4<<8/ dv zhoo dv xvlqj wkh 4<<905333 sdqho1 Wklv lv grqh iru doo lqglylgxdov dv zhoo dv d vxe0vdpsoh ri lqglylgxdov zrunlqj lq wkh vdph hvwdeolvkphqwv dfurvv glhuhqw |hduv1 Wkh iruphu rqo| frqwurov iru lqglylgxdo hhfwv zkloh wkh odwwhu frqwurov iru erwk wlph lqyduldqw lqglylgxdo0 dqg up0vshflf hhfwv/ wkxv dffrxqwlqj iru
Vhh Slqkhlur dqg Edwhv +5333,1 Xvlqj wkh whuplqrorj| ri klhudufklfdo prghoolqj/ htxdwlrq +5, dqg +6, duh wkh lqglylgxdo dqg up ohyho htxdwlrqv1
d v|vwhpdwlf vruwlqj ri lqglylgxdov dfurvv upv1
Dqrwkhu lpsruwdqw lvvxh wr frqvlghu lv wkh hqgrjhqhlw| ri surwv1 Zdjhv dhfw surwv gxh wr wkh dffrxqwlqj uhodwlrqvkls/ zklfk ohdgv wr dq xqghuhv0 wlpdwlrq ri wkh lpsdfw ri surwv rq zdjhv1 Pruhryhu/ dffruglqj wr lqfhqwlyh wkhrulhv ri zdjhv/ kljk zdjhv pd| ohdg wr kljk surwv1 Zh ghdo zlwk wkh hqgr0 jhqhlw| ri surwv e| xvlqj ydulrxv lqvwuxphqwv iru surwv lq hvwlpdwlrq rq rxu pdwfkhg zrunhu0up gdwd1 Rxu ulfk gdwd doorz iru wkuhh glhuhqw lqvwuxphqwv |lhoglqj uhvxowv wkdw gr qrw ghshqg rq wkh fkrlfh ri d vlqjoh lqvwuxphqw dv lv wkh fdvh lq pdq| suhylrxv vwxglhv1 Lqvwuxphqwv lqfoxgh odjjhg surwv/ d phdvxuh ri surgxfw0ghpdqg hodvwlflw|/ h{sruw uhyhqxhv dqg hqhuj| frvwv1
Odjjhg surwv fdq eh xvhg dv lqvwuxphqwv vlqfh up surwv h{klelw odujh yrodwlolw| dqg duh wkxv qrw shuvlvwhqw ryhu wlph1 Surgxfw0ghpdqg hodvwlflw|/ h{sruw uhyhqxhv dqg hqhuj| frvwv dw wkh up0ohyho kdyh qrw suhylrxvo| ehhq xvhg lq wkh olwhudwxuh dv lqvwuxphqwv iru surwv1 Surgxfw ghpdqg hodvwlflw| gluhfwo| fdswxuhv wkh h{lvwhqfh ri surgxfw pdunhw uhqwv1 Ilup surwv vkrxog gluhfwo| eh dhfwhg e| pdunhw srzhu dv phdvxuhg e| up surgxfw0ghpdqg hodvwlflw|1 Dq| hhfw ri surgxfw0ghpdqg hodvwlflw| rq zdjhv vkrxog jr wkurxjk surwv yld d uhqw0vkdulqj phfkdqlvp1 Uhyhqxhv lq h{sruw pdunhwv duh odujho| jryhuqhg e| ghpdqg lq iruhljq pdunhwv1 Iruhljq ghpdqg iru up surgxfwv duh prvw olnho| jryhuqhg e| idfwruv wkdw duh qrw fruuhodwhg wr zdjhv1 Ilup hqhuj| frvwv duh h{rjhqrxv dqg odujho| ghwhuplqhg e| lqwhuqdwlrqdoo| ghwhuplqhg hqhuj| sulfhv1 Hqhuj| frvwv dhfwv surwv dqg vkrxog qrw gluhfwo| dhfw zdjhv zklfk wkhuhiruh pdnhv lw d vxlwdeoh lqvwuxphqw iru surwv1
7 Edvlf Uhvxowv
Uhvxowv uhsruwhg lq Wdeoh 4 lqglfdwh wkdw wkhuh duh srvlwlyh dqg vljqlfdqw hhfwv ri upv* delolw| wr sd| rq lqglylgxdo zdjhv1 Wkh lpsolhg hodvwlflwlhv udqjh ehwzhhq 3134 dqg 3135 dfurvv ydulrxv vshflfdwlrqv dqg |hduv1
Wkhvh
Wkh hodvwlflwlhv duh frpsxwhg e| pxowlso|lqj wkh hvwlpdwhg frh!flhqw iru surwv e| surw phdqv1 Wklv hodvwlflw| lv dssur{lpdwho| htxdo wr wkh hodvwlflwlhv rewdlqhg zkhq hvwlpdwlqj
Wdeoh 41 Hhfw ri surwv rq zdjhv1 Uhvxowv iurp furvv0vhfwlrq hvwlpdwhv iru 4<<4/ 4<<8 dqg 53331 Ghshqghqw yduldeoh lv orj prqwko| zdjh1 Urexvw vwdqgdug huuruv fruuhfwhg iru zlwklq0up fruuhodwlrq lq sdudqwkhvhv1
4 5 6 7 8 9 : 4<<4 4<<4 4<<8 4<<8 4<<8 5333 5333 Surwv2Hpsor|hh 1383--- 1369--- 135: --- 134;--- 134;--- 133;--- 133:---+134;, +134<, +1343, +133:, +133:, +1335, +1334, Ihpdoh 0147--- 0147--- 0148--- 014:--- 0148---+133:, +135, +133;, +133;, +133;, +133;, +133<, H{shulhqfh 1355--- 1355--- 134:--- 134:--- 134<--- 1353---+1334, +1334, +1334, +1334, +1334, +1334, +1334, H{shulhqfh 2433 01373--- 0136<--- 0135:--- 0135:--- 0136--- 0136--- 1336---+1336, +1336, +1335, +1335, +1335, +1335, +1334, Vhqlrulw|243 1338 1336 1353--- 1344--- 1358---+1338, +1337, +1339, +1339, +1338, Hgxfdwlrq ohyho \HV \HV \HV \HV \HV \HV \HV Eoxh Froodu 013<:--- 013<<--- 0148--- 0149--- 0149--- 0147--- 014:---+133<, +133<, +1343, +133<, +133<, +1353, +1344, Lqglylgxdo 01397--- 0139;---xqhpsor|phqw +1335, +1335, Lqgxvwu| QR \HV QR \HV \HV QR \HV U 3176 3178 317: 317< 317; 3176 3177 Q 487/;63 487/;63 485/739 485/739 485/739 <651:79 <651:79 Qrwhv= --- lqglfdwh vljqlfdqfh dw wkh 4(0ohyho1 Lqgxvwu| fodvvlfdwlrq fruuhvsrqgv
wr 47 lqgxvwulhv1 Hgxfdwlrq ohyho fruuhvsrqgv wr : hgxfdwlrq ohyho gxpplhv1
hodvwlflwlhv duh lq olqh zlwk suhylrxvo| uhsruwhg hodvwlflwlhv zklfk duh vxusulvlqjo| xqlirup dfurvv frxqwulhv dqg wlph shulrgv xvlqj ydulrxv vrxufhv ri gdwd1 Suhylrxv vwxglhv uhsruw hodvwlflwlhv udqj0 lqj ehwzhhq 313403138143
orj zdjhv rq orj surwv1
Fkulvwrghv dqg Rvzdog +4<<5, uhsruw hodvwlflwlhv ri durxqg 3134 iru Fdqdgd1 Wkh hodv0 wlflwlhv lq wkh Eodqfk rzhu dw do1 +4<<9, vwxg| rq wkh XV udqjh ehwzhhq 3135 dqg 31381 Kloguhwk dqg Rvzdog +4<<:, uhsruw hodvwlflwlhv lq wkh udqjh ri 3135 wr 3137 iru wkh XN1 Wkh fruuhvsrqglqj udqjh lq wkh Dudl +5336, vwxg| rq Vzhghq lv 3134 wr 31351
Qrwh wkdw wkh shulrg 4<<404<<8 lv fkdudfwhul}hg e| d odujh idoo lq JGS dqg dq lqfuhdvh ri wrwdo xqhpsor|phqw iurp 8 wr 48 shu0 fhqw1 Wkh hvwlpdwhv lq wkh 4<<8 vshflfdwlrq/ wkhuhiruh uh hfw hpsor|hu*v delolw| wr sd|/ gxulqj d uhfhvvlrqdu| shulrg dqg wkh hi0 ihfw ri surwv rq zdjhv lq 4<<4 dqg 5333 uhsuhvhqw errp shulrgv1 Ghvslwh wkh glhuhqfhv lq hfrqrplf frqglwlrqv gxulqj wkhvh shul0 rgv wkh rewdlqhg hodvwlflwlhv duh uhpdundeo| vlplodu dfurvv |hduv144
Dq lvvxh wr frqvlghu lv uhwxuqv wr fdslwdo1 Zh ghdo zlwk wklv e| h{dplqlqj wkh urexvwqhvv ri rxu uhvxowv wr wkh lqfoxvlrq ri frqwurov iru wkh fdslwdo0wr0oderu udwlr +ydoxh ri htxlsphqwv shu hpsor|hh, dqg e| frpsdulqj surwv iru upv zlwk frpsdudeoh fdslwdo0wr0oderu udwlrv145 Wr fkhfn wkh urexvwqhvv ri rxu uhvxowv
zlwk uhvshfw wr oderu vxsso|/ zh dovr hvwlpdwhg wkh vdph prghov lqfoxglqj rqo| zrunhuv zrunlqj pruh wkdq 83 ru :8 shufhqw ri ixoo0wlph1 Wkhvh h{shulphqwv/ qrw uhsruwhg lq wkh sdshu/ ohdyh wkh uhvxowv xqfkdqjhg1 Wkh vhqvlwlylw| dqdo|vlv duh shuiruphg iru doo hvwlpdwlrqv uhsruwhg lq Wdeohv 408146
Zh dovr lqyhvwljdwh zkhwkhu wkh h{whqw ri uhqw0vkdulqj ydulhv dfurvv jhqghu dqg rffxsdwlrqdo jurxsv/ vlqfh wkh edujdlqlqj srzhu ri zrunhuv pd| v|vwhpdwlfdoo| ydu| dfurvv wkhvh jurxsv1 Uhvxowv edvhg rq vhsdudwh uhjuhvvlrqv iru phq dqg zrphq lpso| wkdw wkh hodvwlflwlhv ri zdjhv zlwk uhvshfw wr surwv duh kljkhu iru phq wkdq iru zrphq1 Wkh glhuhqfh lq hodvwlflw| lv qrw gxh wr glhuhqfh lq dyhudjh surwv iru hpsor|huv ri phq dqg zrphq exw udwkhu uh hfw
Hvwlpdwlrqv ri wkh lpsdfw ri surwv rq zdjhv lq 4<<4 xvlqj surwv shu hpsor|hh lq 4<;:/ 4<;;/ 4<;< dqg 4<<3/ uhvshfwlyho|/ lqvwhdg ri xvlqj irxu0|hdu dyhudjhv/ |lhog frh!flhqwv udqjlqj ehwzhhq 3137 dqg 3138 wkdw lv wr eh frpsduhg zlwk 3138 iru wkh dyhudjh surwv shu hpsor|hh yduldeoh1 Wkh dyhudjh surwv shu hpsor|hh lv vwdeoh gxulqj wklv shulrg udqjlqj ehwzhhq 3157 dqg 3165 +433/333 VHN,1 Wkh fruuhvsrqglqj hvwlpdwhv iru wkh 4<<4 wr 4<<7 shulrg |lhog vlplodu frh!flhqwv dqg hodvwlflwlhv zkhq xvlqj rqh |hdu surwv shu hpsor|hh lq 4<<4 dqg 4<<6 zkloh wkh hvwlpdwhv iru 4<<5 dqg 4<<7 dqg wkh hodvwlflwlhv duh frqvlghudeo| vpdoohu1 Zh eholhyh wkdw wklv lv wkh uhvxow ri wkh wxuexohqw hfrqrplf hqylurqphqw lq 4<<50 4<<8 dv ghvfulehg deryh1 Wklv lv frquphg e| wkh odujh yrodwlolw| ri surwv shu hpsor|hh lq wkhvh |hduv udqjlqj iurp 3137 wr 31<: dv frpsduhg zlwk wkh shulrg dyhudjh ri 31661
Iru hhfwv ri fdslwdo lqwhqvlw| rq zdjhv/ vhh Glfnhqv dqg Ndw} +4<;:, rq lqgxvwu| gdwd dqg Dudl +4<<<, rq pdwfkhg zrunhu0up gdwd1
Uhvxowv qrw uhsruwhg lq wkh wdeohv fdq eh rewdlqhg iurp wkh dxwkruv xsrq uhtxhvw1
wkh glhuhqfh lq hvwlpdwhg frh!flhqwv iru surwv147
Durxqg ;3 shufhqw ri eoxh0froodu zrunhuv dqg dssur{lpdwho| :3 shufhqw ri zklwh0froodu zrunhuv duh xqlrql}hg lq Vzhghq1 Li uhqw0 vkdulqj zhuh rqo| d frqvhtxhqfh ri wkh ghjuhh ri xqlrql}dwlrq/ zh zrxog h{shfw wr revhuyh kljkhu uhqwv iru eoxh0froodu zrunhuv1 H{dplqlqj wkh yduldwlrq ri uhqwv dfurvv rffxsdwlrqdo jurxsv/ fodv0 vlhg dv zklwh0 dqg eoxh0froodu zrunhuv/ vkrzv vljqlfdqwo| orzhu uhqwv iru eoxh0froodu zrunhuv1 Wkhvh uhvxowv vxjjhvw wkdw wkh h{lv0 whqfh ri uhqw0vkdulqj lv qrw uhodwhg wr wkh ghjuhh ri xqlrql}dwlrq1 Wkh orzhu uhqwv iru eoxh0froodu zrunhuv pljkw sduwo| uh hfw wkh glhuhqfhv lq kxpdq fdslwdo dfurvv jurxsv1 Rxu uhjuhvvlrqv lq0 foxglqj lqwhudfwlrq yduldeohv ehwzhhq surwv dqg kxpdq fdslwdo yduldeohv lqglfdwh wkdw wkh h{whqw ri uhqw0vkdulqj lqfuhdvhv zlwk wkh ohyho ri hgxfdwlrq/ h{shulhqfh dqg vhqlrulw|1
Dqrwkhu txhvwlrq wr frqvlghu lv wkh h{whqw wr zklfk uhqw0vkdulqj wdnhv sodfh zlwklq lqgxvwulhv1 Wklv lv lqwhuhvwlqj/ jlyhq wkh Vzhglvk froohfwlyh zdjh0edujdlqlqj v|vwhp zlwk wkh lqgxvwu| ohyho dv wkh kljkhvw ohyho ri fhqwudol}dwlrq1 Krzhyhu/ gxh wr d kljkhu ghjuhh ri frruglqdwlrq ri xqlrqv dqg hpsor|huv* rujdql}dwlrqv/ vxevwdqwldo glhuhqfhv dfurvv lqgxvwulhv pljkw qrw eh h{shfwhg1 Wklv ylhz lv frquphg e| rxu uhvxowv lqglfdwlqj wkdw wkh hhfw ri surwv gursv zkhq zh dgg 47 lqgxvwu| gxpplhv frqvwuxfwhg vxfk wkdw wkh| urxjko| fdswxuh wkh glhuhqw edujdlqlqj duhdv +vhh froxpqv 5/ 7 dqg : lq Wdeoh 4,1 Wkh pdmru iudfwlrq ri ryhudoo uhqwv/ krzhyhu/ duh gxh wr orfdo edujdlqlqj/ l1h1 edujdlqlqj dw wkh up2hvwdeolvkphqw dqg lqglylgxdo ohyho1 Wkhvh uhvxowv duh lq olqh zlwk zkdw lv xvxdoo| shufhlyhg dv wkh pdjqlwxgh ri zdjh guliw lq Vzhghq/ lqglfdwlqj wkh uhodwlyh lpsruwdqfh ri orfdo edujdlqlqj lq Vzhghq148
Dudl +5336, uhsruwv vlplodu uhvxowv iru 4<<4 lq Vzhghq xvlqj revhuyhg krxuo| zdjhv dqg wkh vdph phdvxuh iru surwv1 Vhh Qhne| +5336, iru d uhfhqw h{dplqdwlrq ri jhqghu glhuhqfhv lq uhqw0vkdulqj1
Vhh wkh txduwhuo| uhsruwv ri wkh Qdwlrqdo Lqvwlwxwh ri Hfrqrplf Uhvhdufk +Nrqmxqnwxulqvwlwxwhw,1
8 Frqwuroolqj iru Zrunhu dqg Ilup Hhfwv
Zdjhv pljkw ydu| dfurvv upv gxh wr ydulrxv vrxufhv ri up hi0 ihfwv1 Wkhvh fdq vwhp iurp glhuhqfhv lq jhqghu dqg vnloo frp0 srvlwlrqv/ upv zdjh srolf| ru wkh zrunhuv* h{shulhqfhg xqhp0 sor|phqw1 Wr lqyhvwljdwh wkh uroh ri up hhfwv/ zh hvwlpdwh rxu prgho lqfoxglqj wkh up udqgrp0hhfwv vshflfdwlrq vkrzq lq htxdwlrqv +5, dqg +6,1 Uhvxowv uhsruwhg lq Wdeoh 5 lpso| wkdw wkh rxu hvwlpdwh iru surwv lv urexvw wr doorzlqj iru up udqgrp lqwhufhswv +hhfwv,1
Rxu qglqjv lqglfdwh wkdw ghvslwh frqwurov iru lqglylgxdo khw0 hurjhqhlw| zlwk uhvshfw wr sdvw h{shulhqfhg xqhpsor|phqw dqg rwkhu lqglylgxdo fkdudfwhulvwlfv dv zhoo dv lqgxvwu| d!oldwlrq/ lq0 glylgxdo zdjhv duh qhjdwlyho| fruuhodwhg wr wkh vkduh ri zrunhuv dw wkh hvwdeolvkphqw zkr kdyh h{shulhqfhg xqhpsor|phqw1 Wklv uhvxow lv lq olqh zlwk uhvxowv uhsruwhg lq wkh zdjh0fxuyh olwhudwxuh zkhuh d qhjdwlyh uhodwlrq ehwzhhq zdjhv dqg xqhpsor|phqw dw ydulrxv jurxs0ohyhov +qdwlrq/ lqgxvwu|/ uhjlrq, duh uhsruwhg149
Qh{w/ zh hvwlpdwh {hg0hhfwv prghov/ frqwuroolqj iru xqre0 vhuyhg lqglylgxdo khwhurjhqhlw|1 Sdqhov d dqg e lq Wdeoh 6 suhvhqw uhvxowv iru wkh 4<<404<<8 dqg 4<<905333 sdqhov/ uhvshfwlyho|1
Wkh lqglylgxdo {hg0hhfwv prgho hvwlpdwhg rq gdwd iru 4<<4 dqg 4<<8 |lhogv d srvlwlyh dqg vljqlfdqw surw frh!flhqw +vhh sdqho d,1 Qrwlfh wkdw doprvw doo lqglylgxdo yduldeohv duh wlph lqyduldqw dqg wkhuhiruh qrw lqfoxghg lq wkh htxdwlrqv1
Dq lvvxh lv wr frqvlghu lv zkhwkhu wkh surw hhfwv rq zdjhv duh vwurqjhu lq upv h{shulhqflqj d surw lqfuhdvh lq frpsdulvrq wr upv h{shulhqflqj ghfuhdvlqj surwv1 Zrunhuv zkr*v hpsor|lqj up h{shulhqfhv idoolqj surwv fdq kdugo| eh h{shfwhg wr h{shul0 hqfh idoolqj zdjhv/ gxh wr zdjh vhwwlqj lqvwlwxwlrqv zklfk doprvw hqwluho| h{foxgh zdjh fxwv1 Wkh suhylrxv hvwlpdwhv ri uhqw0vkdulqj uhsuhvhqw dq dyhudjh hhfw iru erwk surwdeoh upv dqg upv zlwk orvvhv1 Wkh hhfw ri surwv rq zdjhv lv v|pphwulf deryh dqg
Vhh h1j1 Eodqfk rzhu dqg Rvzdog +4<<7,1
Wdeoh 51 Udqgrp up0lqwhufhsw prghov1 Vwdqgdug huuruv lq sduhqwkhvhv1 4<<4 4<<8 Lqwhufhsw ;1<<--- <137---+13:, +13:, Surwv2Hpsor|hh 1367--- 1353---+134, +133, Ihpdoh 0146--- 0147---+133, +133, Ihpdoh 0137- 013:--+135, + 135, Eoxh Froodu 013;--- 0148---+133, +133, Eoxh Froodu 136 13;---+136, +135, Lqglylgxdo xqhpsor|phqw 0139---+133, Xqhpsor|phqw 0135;---+ 134, Orj ornholkrrg 74/4<: 63/5:; Ed|hvldq LF 0;5/489 093/5<7 Q 487/;63 484/8;6 VWG ri udqgrp lqwhufhswv 13;5 13;9 <8( frqghqfh lqwhuydov +13:9/13;;, +13;4/ 13<5, Qrwhv= ---/ -- dqg - lqglfdwh vljqlfdqfh dw wkh 4(/ 8( dqg 43( ohyhov/ uhvshf0 wlyho|1 Rwkhu yduldeohv lqfoxghg duh h{shulhqfh/ h{shulhqfh vtxduhg/ vhqlrulw| dw wkh hvwdeolvkphqw ohyho dqg hgxfdwlrq ohyho gxpplhv1
xqghu wkh }hur ohyho rqo| li zdjhv glvforvh v|pphwulf h{lelolw| erwk xszdugv dqg grzqzdugv1 Wkhuh duh krzhyhu erwk wkhruhwlfdo dqg hpslulfdo vwxglhv srlqwlqj dw dq dv|pphwu| lq zdjh uhvsrqvhv wr ydulrxv vkrfnv14: Wr h{dplqh wklv lvvxh zh hvwlpdwh wkh surw
hhfw iru upv wkdw h{shulhqfh lqfuhdvlqj dqg ghfuhdvlqj surwv/ uhvshfwlyho|1
Hvwlpdwlqj wkh {hg hhfwv prgho rq d vxe0vdpsoh ri zrunhuv h{shulhqflqj dq lqfuhdvh lq surwv lq wkhlu hpsor|lqj up/ ohdgv wr d kxjh lqfuhdvh lq wkh hvwlpdwh ri surwv +vhh froxpq 6 lq Wdeoh 6,1 Iru lqglylgxdov zrunlqj lq upv zlwk ghfuhdvlqj surwv zh
Vhh Djhoo dqg Oxqgeruj +5336, iru hylghqfh rq grzqzdug zdjh uljlglw| lq Vzhghq1
Wdeoh 61 Hhfw ri surwv rq zdjhv1 Uhvxowv iurp lqglylgxdo dqg up {hg0hhfwv prghov1 Ghshqghqw yduldeoh lv orj prqwko| zdjh1 Vwdqgdug huuruv lq sduhqwkhvhv1
4 5 6 7 8 9 Doo {E ! f {E ! :f Doo {E ! f {E ! :f d= 4<<404<<8 sdqho Surwv2Hpsor|hh 13357--- 013:8--- 1358--- 0133:--- 013:8--- 1368---+1334 , +1335, +1335, +1334, +1335, +1335, Vdph hpsor|hu QR QR QR \HV \HV \HV Kdxvpdq 5::--- 4/74;--- 917<--- 4<;--- 4/53:--- 64---Euhxvfk ) Sdjdq 93/58;--- 57/64:--- 58/997--- 7</9::--- 57/;86--- 57/456---U +ryhudoo, 1336 1339 13338 1335 1338 13338 ;61;:9 7415;5 6;/4<5 9;/:96 6:/7;8 64/5:; e= 4<<905333 sdqho Surwv2Hpsor|hh 1337--- 01346--- 1348--- 1337--- 01347--- 1348---+1333, +1333, +1333, +1333, +1333, +1333, Vdph hpsor|hu QR QR QR \HV \HV \HV Kdxvpdq 4:/554--- 8/665--- 6/<46--- 48/:99 44/95:--- 6/6;3---Euhxvfk ) Sdjdq 615h.39--- 415h.39--- 51<h.39--- 415h.39--- 41:h.39---U +ryhudoo, 135 13338 138 135 13337 137 889/767 634/935 673/538 888/3<3 57:/5<; 65;/<<9
Qrwhv= + ! , ghqrwhv surwv shu hpsor|hh1 --- lqglfdwh vljqlfdqfh dw wkh 4(0ohyho1
Lqgxvwu| fodvvlfdwlrq fruuhvsrqgv wr 47 lqgxvwulhv1
qg d qhjdwlyh dqg vljqlfdqw surw hhfw +vhh froxpq 5,1 Wkhvh uhvxowv lqglfdwh wkdw ehklqg wkh ryhudoo uhqw0vkdulqj hvwlpdwhv olhv glvwlqfw glhuhqfhv ehwzhhq upv zlwk lqfuhdvlqj ru ghfuhdvlqj surwv1
Il{hg0hhfwv hvwlpdwlrq djjuhjdwhv wkh surw hhfw iru lqgl0 ylgxdov zkr kdyh zrunhg lq wkh vdph up dv zhoo dv iru wkrvh zkr kdyh fkdqjhg hpsor|hu1 Wkh sureohp ri hqgrjhqrxv vzlwfkhv pljkw eh lpsruwdqw khuh wkrxjk pdq| hpsor|hu vzlwfkhv gxulqj wkh shulrg 4<<404<<8 duh h{rjhqrxv gxh wr kljk xqhpsor|phqw
udwhv dw wkh wlph1 Lghqwli|lqj wkh up0hhfwv e| uho|lqj rq lq0 glylgxdov zkr vzlwfk upv lv kd}dugrxv zkhq zh kdyh qr lqiru0 pdwlrq derxw wkh uhdvrq ri prelolw|1 Zh wkhuhiruh uhvwulfwhg wkh hvwlpdwlrq wr zrunhuv uhpdlqlqj dw wkh vdph up/ wr rewdlq d zlwklq lqglylgxdo dqg zlwklq up hhfw hvwlpdwh1 Uxqqlqj wkh prgho rq wklv jurxs ri zrunhuv |lhogv edvlfdoo| wkh vdph uhvxowv lqglfdwlqj qr vljqlfdqw glhuhqfhv ehwzhhq zrunhuv zkr vzlwfkhg upv dqg hvwlpdwhv rq rqo| wkrvh zkr glg qrw fkdqjh hpsor|hu ehwzhhq shulrgv +vhh froxpqv 709 lq Wdeoh 6,1
Hvwlpdwhv xvlqj wkh 4<<905333 gdwd lq sdqho K frqup wkh uh0 vxowv rewdlqhg iru 4<<404<<81 D srvlwlyh dqg vljqlfdqw surw hhfw lv irxqg iru upv h{shulhqflqj dq lqfuhdvh lq surwv/ zkloh wkh rssrvlwh lv wuxh iru upv zlwk qrq0lqfuhdvlqj surwv gxulqj wkh shulrg 4<<9053331 Uhvxowv duh urexvw wr hvwlpdwlqj wkh prgho rq wkrvh lqglylgxdov zkr uhpdlq lq wkh vdph up/ l1h1 hvwlpdwlqj zlwklq lqglylgxdo dqg up hhfwv1 Wkh phvvdjh ri wkhvh uhvxowv lv wkdw uhqwv h{lvw dqg duh qrw gxh wr {hg lqglylgxdo ru up hhfwv1
9 Lqvwuxphqwlqj Surwv
Kljk zdjhv pljkw ohdg wr kljk surwv/ dv suhglfwhg e| h!flhqf| zdjh wkhru|/ exw kljkhu zdjhv uhgxfh surwv dv phdvxuhg lq upv* edodqfh vkhhw uhsruwv/ lpso|lqj uhyhuvh fdxvdolw| iurp zdjhv wr surwv1 Wr ghdo zlwk wklv sureohp/ Derzg dqg Ohplhx{ +4<<6, xvh lqwhuqdwlrqdo vhoolqj sulfhv dv lqvwuxphqwv dqg qg wkdw wkh hhfw ri surwv rq zdjhv lqfuhdvhg whq irog14; Wklv lqglfdwhv wkdw
wkh uhqw0vkdulqj hhfw pljkw eh xqghuhvwlpdwhg gxh wr wkh df0 frxqwlqj uhodwlrqvkls ehwzhhq zdjhv dqg surwv1 Rwkhu lqvwux0 phqwv xvhg lq wkh suhylrxv olwhudwxuh duh hqhuj| frvwv +Eodqfk0 rzhu hw do1 +4<<9,, dqg lqsxw0rxwsxw wdeohv +Hvwhyær dqg Whyolq
Wkh lqfuhdvh lq wkh hodvwlflw| pljkw eh gxh wr xvlqj zhdn lqvwuxphqwv +vhh Erxqghw do1
+4<<8,,1 Wklv fdqqrw eh yhulhg vlqfh wkh uvw vwhs uhjuhvvlrqv duh qrw uhsruwhg lq Derzg dqg Ohplhx{ +4<<6,1
+5336,, dw wkh lqgxvwu| ohyho1
Wkrxjk lw lv srvvleoh wr hpslulfdoo| hydoxdwh wkh fruuhodwlrq ehwzhhq dq hqgrjhqrxv h{sodqdwru| yduldeoh dqg dq lqvwuxphqw/ wkhuh duh qr srvvlelolwlhv wr h{dplqh zkhwkhu wkh lqvwuxphqw lv xq0 fruuhodwhg zlwk wkh huuru0whup lq wkh vhfrqg0vwhs uhjuhvvlrq1 Wklv phdqv wkdw pxfk kdqjv rq wkhruhwlfdo dujxphqwv iru ydolglw| ri dq lqvwuxphqw1 Li zh ryhuvhh d wkhruhwlfdoo| plqru vrxufh ri fru0 uhodwlrq ehwzhhq wkh lqvwuxphqw dqg wkh huuru whup lq wkh vhfrqg vwhs uhjuhvvlrq/ uhvxowv fdq eh eldvhg dqg lqvwuxphqwdwlrq grhv qrw vroyh wkh hqgrjhqhlw| sureohp1 E| xvlqj vhyhudo lqvwuxphqwv zh gr qrw kdyh wr uho| rq wkh ulvn| vwudwhj| ri uho|lqj rq d vlqjoh lqvwuxphqw1
D frpprq lqvwuxphqw lq wkh olwhudwxuh lv wr xvh odjjhg ydoxhv ri surwv dv lqvwuxphqw +vhh h1j1 Eodqfk rzhu hw do1 +4<<9, dqg Kloguhwk dqg Rvzdog +4<<:,,1 Wkhuhiruh/ lq Wdeoh 7/ zh uvw uh0 sruw uhvxowv iru 4<<4 zkhq surwv duh lqvwuxphqwhg zlwk odjjhg ydoxhv ri surwv lq 4<;: dqg 4<;;1 Uhvxowv uhsruwhg lq froxpqv 4 dqg 5 frqup wkdw surwv dhfw zdjhv14<
Uhvxowv lq froxpq 6 lq Wdeoh 7 lqglfdwh wkdw xvlqj rxu phd0 vxuh ri surgxfw ghpdqg hodvwlflw| dv dq lqvwuxphqw iru surwv/ lq0 fuhdvhv uhqw0vkdulqj hvwlpdwhv e| dssur{lpdwho| 43 wlphv dv frp0 sduhg wr rxu furvv0vhfwlrq ru {hg0hhfwv hvwlpdwhv1 Dffruglqj wr wkh uvw vwhs uhvxowv lq Wdeoh 7/ rxu lqvwuxphqw lv kljko| fruuhodwhg zlwk surwv1 Ilupv uhsruwlqj juhdwhu surgxfw0ghpdqg hodvwlflw| kdyh/ dv suhglfwhg/ orzhu surwv1
Rxu gdwdvhw fryhulqj wkh shulrg 4<<905333 doorzv iru vhyhudo rwkhu lqvwuxphqwv iru surwv wr ghdo zlwk wkh srwhqwldo sureohp frqfhuqlqj hqgrjhqhlw| ri surwv1 Uhvwulfwlqj rxu vdpsoh wr lqgl0 ylgxdov zrunlqj lq wkh vdph upv/ zh fdq hvwlpdwh {hg0hhfwv prghov wr frqwuro iru wlph0lqyduldqw lqglylgxdo dqg up
Lq Wdeoh 7/ zh rqo| uhsruw wkh uhvxowv zkhq surwv duh lqvwuxphqwhg zlwk odjjhg surwv lq 4<;: dqg 4<;;1 Xvlqj surwv lq 4<;< dqg 4<<3 dv lqvwuxphqwv |lhog vlplodu uhvxowv1 Xvlqj odjjhg surwv lq 4<<4/4<<5/4<<6 ru 4<<7 dv lqvwuxphqwv iru hvwlpdwlqj wkh hhfw ri surwv rq zdjhv lq 4<<8/ zh edvlfdoo| rewdlq wkh vdph uhvxowv h{fhsw zkhq surwv lq 4<<5 duh xvhg dv dq lqvwuxphqw |lhoglqj lqvljqlfdqw uhvxowv1
Wdeoh 71 Hhfw ri surwv rq zdjhv1 Uhvxowv iurp lqvwuxphqwdo yduldeoh hvwlpdwhv xvlqj ydulrxv lqvwuxphqwv1 Ghshqghqw yduldeoh lv orj prqwko| zdjh lq 4<<41 Urexvw vwdqgdug huuruv lq sduhqwkhvhv1
4 5 6
Lqvwuxphqw= Surwv2Hpso1 lq 0;: Surwv2Hpso1 lq 0;; Surgxfw ghpdqg hodvwlflw| Surwv2Hpsor|hh 1363--- 1396--- 166---+1336, +1335, +139;, Zx0Kdxvpdq whvw 4;6--- 46--- 4:---U 3175 3177 3164 Q 455/4<8 48:/7<7 ;</33< 4vw vwhs hvwlpdwhv= 318<--- 3184--- 04134---+3134, +3133, +313<,
Qrwhv= l, --- lqglfdwh vljqlfdqfh dw wkh 4(0ohyho1 Rwkhu yduldeohv lqfoxghg lq hvwlpdwlrq duh jhqghu/ hgxfdwlrq ohyho/ h{shulhqfh/ h{shulhqfh vtxduh/ vhqlrulw| dqg eoxh0froodu vwdwxv1 Wkh hvwlpdwhg frh!flhqwv iru wkhvh yduldeohv duh hvvhqwldoo| wkh vdph dv wkrvh uhsruwhg lq suhylrxv wdeohv zkhq hvwlpdwlqj rq wkh vdph vdpsoh ri lqglylgxdov1 Dgglqj lqgxvwu| gxpplhv uhgxfhv wkh hvwlpdwh iru surwv exw grhv qrw hhfw wkh ohyho ri vljqlfdqfh1
ll, Froxpqv 406 duh edvhg rq vxevdpsohv ri wkh ruljlqdo pdwfkhg gdwd gxh wr plvvlqj ydoxhv iru rxu lqvwuxphqwv1 ROV hvwlpdwhv ri surwv shu hpsor|hh rq wkh vdph vdpsoh ri lqglylgxdov dv lq froxpqv 406 |lhog edvlfdoo| wkh vdph hvlpdwhv dv frpsduhg zlwk hvwpdwhv ri wkh fruuhvsrqglqj htxdwlrqv rq wkh ixoo vdpsoh ri lqglylgxdov1
lll, Iluvw vwhs hvwlpdwhv duh hvwlpdwhg frh!flhqwv zkhuh surwv shu hpsor|hh duh uhjuhvvhg rq rxu ydulrxv lqvwuxphqwv1
ly, Wkh Zx0Kdxvpdq whvw h{dplqhv li wkhuh lv d v|vwhpdwlf glhuhqfh ehwzhhq wkh ROV dqg wkh LY hvwlpdwru1 Wkh qxoo0k|srwkhvlv lv wkdw wkh phdvxuh ri surwv lv h{rjhqrxv1
khwhurjhqhlw|/ zkloh xvlqj wkh vhw ri wlph0ydu|lqj lqvwuxphqwv dydlodeoh lq wkh gdwd1 Uhvxowv ri wkhvh hvwlpdwlrqv duh uhsruwhg lq Wdeoh 81
Wdeoh 81 Hhfw ri surwv rq zdjhv1 Uhvxowv iurp lqglylgxdo dqg up {hg0hhfwv prghov xvlqj ydulrxv lqvwuxphqwv iru wkh 4<<905333 sdqho1 Ghshqghqw yduldeoh lv orj prqwko| zdjh1 Urexvw vwdqgdug huuruv lq sduhqwkhvhv1
4 5 6 7 8 9 Lqvwuxphqw= I r u h l j q v d o h v H q h u j | f r v w v Doo + ! ,3 + ! ,A3 Doo + ! ,3 + ! ,A3 Surwv2Hpsor|hh 1367--- 0186--- 1363--- 16:--- 0149--- 1399 +1333, +1333, +1333, +1333, +1333, +1333, U +ryhudoo, 3163 315: 3137 3137 3134 3139 Q 7:4/7:3 555/6:8 598/974 79;/446 4;7/4:6 5<7/7<5 4vw vwhs hvwlpdwhv= 148--- 0134--- 14<--- 0134 135--- 0139 +133, +133, +133, +133, +133, +133, Qrwhv= l, --- lqglfdwh vljqlfdqfh dw wkh 4(0ohyho1 Doo hvwlpdwhv duh frqglwlrqlqj rq vdph hpsor|hu/ lpso|lqj zlwklq lqglylgxdo dqg up hhfw hvwlpdwhv1
ll, Wkh hvwlpdwhv duh edvhg rq vxevdpsohv ri wkh ruljlqdo pdwfkhg gdwd gxh wr plvvlqj ydoxhv iru rxu lqvwuxphqwv1 ROV hvwlpdwhv ri surwv shu hpsor|hh rq wkh vdph vdpsoh ri lqglylgxdov |lhog edvlfdoo| wkh vdph hvlpdwhv dv frpsduhg zlwk hvwpdwhv ri wkh fruuhvsrqglqj htxdwlrqv rq wkh ixoo vdpsoh ri lqglylgxdov1
lll, Iluvw vwhs hvwlpdwhv duh hvwlpdwhg frh!flhqwv zkhuh surwv shu hpsor|hh duh uhjuhvvhg rq wkh ydulrxv lqvwuxphqwv1
Dv lq wkh fdvh ri rxu hvwlpdwhg {hg0hhfw prghov lq Wdeoh 6/ zh uxq rxu prgho rq wzr vxe0vdpsohv1 Zh vsolw wkh vdpsoh lqwr revhuydwlrqv dvvrfldwhg zlwk upv wkdw h{klelw lqfuhdvlqj surwv gxulqj wkh hqwluh shulrg 4<<905333 dqg wkrvh wkdw h{klelw qrq0 lqfuhdvlqj surwv gxulqj wklv shulrg1 Wkh jhqhudo lghd lv/ dv phq0 wlrqhg deryh/ wkdw zh vkrxog qrw h{shfw d srvlwlyh hhfw ri surwv rq zdjhv iru upv zlwk qrq0lqfuhdvlqj surwv gxh wr grzqzdug zdjh0vwlfnlqhvv1
Wkh uvw0vwhs uhjuhvvlrqv vkrz wkdw iruhljq vdohv duh vwurqjo| dqg srvlwlyho| fruuhodwhg wr surwv/ hvshfldoo| iru upv zlwk lq0 fuhdvlqj surwv1 Qrwlfh wkdw wkh hvwlpdwhg frh!flhqw lq froxpq 5/ doowrxjk vljqlfdqw/ lv forvh wr }hur1 Uhjduglqj hqhuj| frvwv dv dq lqvwuxphqw zh qg wkdw hqhuj| frvwv duh qrw fruuhodwhg wr surwv lq jhqhudo exw srvlwlyho| fruuhodwhg zlwk surwv iru upv
zlwk ghfuhdvlqj surwv1 Wklv lpsolhv wkdw hqhuj| frvwv duh d zhdn lqvwuxphqw/ frquphg e| wkh udglfdo lqfuhdvh lq wkh hvwlpdwh iru surwv +vhh Erxqg hw do1 +4<<8,,1 Zh wkhuhiruh uxoh rxw hqhuj| frvwv dv d ydolg lqvwuxphqw1
Uhvxowv rq doo upv dqg lqglylgxdov lqglfdwh wkh h{lvwhqfh ri vxevwdqwldo hhfwv ri surwv rq zdjhv wkdw duh pxfk odujhu wkdq wkh fruuhvsrqglqj ROV hvwlpdwhv +vhh froxpqv 4 dqg 7 lq Wdeoh 8,1 Wxuqlqj wr wkh vxe0vdpsoh ri upv/ zh rqo| qg srvlwlyh surwv hhfwv rq zdjhv lq upv zlwk lqfuhdvlqj surwv/ frqvlvwhqw zlwk wkh lghd wkdw grzqzdug zdjh0vwlfnlqhvv ohdgv wr uhqw0vkdulqj hi0 ihfwv rqo| lq upv zlwk lqfuhdvlqj surwv1 Wkh jhqhudo frqfoxvlrq iurp Wdeohv 7 dqg 8 lv wkdw xvlqj revhuyhg surwv wr hvwlpdwh uhqwv whqgv wr xqghuhvwlpdwh wkh lpsdfw ri uhqw0vkdulqj gxh wr wkh dffrxqwlqj uhodwlrqvkls ehwzhhq zdjhv dqg surwv1
: Frqfoxvlrqv
Xvlqj d odujh Vzhglvk pdwfkhg hpsor|hu0hpsor|hh sdqho gdwd iru wkh 4<<3*v/ zh duh deoh wr vlpxowdqhrxvo| ghdo zlwk wkh hpslulfdo sureohpv dvvrfldwhg zlwk hvwlpdwlqj wkh h{whqw ri uhqw0vkdulqj1
D sureohp zlwk lghqwli|lqj wkh lpsdfwv ri surwv rq zdjhv lv wkh hqgrjhqhlw| ri surwv1 Wkhuh duh wzr pdlq srwhqwldo vrxufhv ri uhyhuvh fdxvdolw| iurp zdjhv wr surwv1 Iluvw/ kljk zdjhv pljkw ohdg wr kljk surwv/ dv suhglfwhg e| h!flhqf| zdjh wkhru|1 Vhf0 rqg/ kljkhu zdjhv uhgxfh surwv e| ghqlwlrq/ dv phdvxuhg lq upv* edodqfh vkhhw uhsruwv1 Lq dgglwlrq wr odjjhg surwv/ zh xvh h{sruw uhyhqxhv dqg surgxfw ghpdqg hodvwlflw| wr ghdo zlwk wklv sureohp1
Frqwuroolqj iru zrunhu dqg up {hg0hhfwv dqg xvlqj vhyhudo lqvwuxphqwv wr ghdo zlwk wkh hqgrjhqhlw| ri surwv/ zh uhsruw uhvxowv lqglfdwlqj wkdw ROV0hvwlpdwhv vwurqjo| xqghuhvwlpdwh wkh hhfwv ri surwv rq zdjhv1
Pruhryhu/ wkh hhfw ri surwv rq zdjhv duh hvwlpdwhg vhsd0 udwho| iru upv zlwk lqfuhdvlqj dqg ghfuhdvlqj surwv zlwklq d
jlyhq wlph shulrg1 Zh qg d srvlwlyh dqg vwdeoh hhfw rqo| lq upv zlwk lqfuhdvlqj surwv1 Wklv lv lq olqh zlwk wkh lghd wkdw idoolqj surwv gr qrw ohdg wr zdjh fxwv zkloh lqfuhdvlqj surwv lpso| kljkhu zdjhv1
Uhihuhqfhv
Derzg/ M1 P1/ Nudpdu}/ I1 dqg Pdujrolv/ G1 Q1/ 4<<<1 Kljk0Zdjh Zrunhuv dqg Kljk0Zdjh Ilupv/ Hfrqrphwulfd 9:/ 58406661 Derzg/ M1 P1 dqg Ohplhx{/ W1/ 4<<61 Wkh Hhfwv ri Surgxfw Pdu0
nhw Frpshwlwlrq rq Froohfwlyh Edujdlqlqj Djuhhphqwv= Wkh Fdvh ri Iruhljq Frpshwlwlrq lq Fdqdgd/ Txduwhuo| Mrxuqdo ri Hfrqrplfv 43;/ <;6043471
Djhoo/ M1 dqg Oxqgeruj/ S1/ 53361 Vxuyh| Hylghqfh rq Zdjh Uljlglw|= Vzhghq lq wkh 4<<3v/ Vfdqglqdyldq Mrxuqdo ri Hfr0 qrplfv 438/ 480631
Dnhuori/ J1 D1 dqg \hoohq M1 O1/ 4<;91 H!flhqf| Zdjh Prghov ri wkh Oderu Pdunhw +Fdpeulgjh Xqlyhuvlw| Suhvv/ Fdpeulgjh,1 Dudl/ P1/ 53361 Zdjhv/ Surwv dqg Fdslwdo Lqwhqvlw|= Hylghqfh iurp Pdwfkhg Zrunhu0Ilup Gdwd/ Mrxuqdo ri Oderu Hfr0 qrplfv 5336/ 54/ 8<6094;1
Eodqfk rzhu/ G1 J1 dqg Rvzdog/ D1 M1/ 4<<71 Wkh Zdjh Fxuyh +PLW Suhvv/ Fdpeulgjh,1
Eodqfk rzhu/ G1 J1/ Rvzdog/ D1 dqg Jduuhww/ P1 G1/ 4<<31 Lqvlghu Srzhu lq Zdjh Ghwhuplqdwlrq/ Hfrqrplfd 8:/ 47604:31 Eodqfk rzhu/ G1 J1/ Rvzdog/ D1 M1 dqg Vdqih|/ S1/ 4<<91 Zdjhv/
Surwv/ dqg Uhqw0Vkdulqj/ Txduwhuo| Mrxuqdo ri Hfrqrplfv 444/ 55:05851
Erxqg/ M1/ Mdhjhu/ G1 D1 dqg Ednhu/ U1 P1/ 4<<81 Sureohpv zlwk Lqvwuxphqwdo Yduldeohv Hvwlpdwlrq Zkhq wkh Fruuhod0 wlrq Ehwzhhq wkh Lqvwuxphqwv dqg wkh Hqgrjhqrxv H{sodqd0 wru| Yduldeoh lv Zhdn/ Mrxuqdo ri wkh Dphulfdq Vwdwlvwlfdo Dvvrfldwlrq <3/ 77607831
Fkulvwrghv/ O1 Q1 dqg Rvzdog/ D1 M1/ 4<<51 Uhdo Zdjh Ghwhu0 plqdwlrq dqg Uhqw0Vkdulqj lq Froohfwlyh Edujdlqlqj Djuhh0 phqwv/ Txduwhuo| Mrxuqdo ri Hfrqrplfv 43:/ <;8043351
Glfnhqv/ Z1 W1 dqg Ndw}/ O1 I1/ 4<;:1 Lqwhu0Lqgxvwu| Zdjh Glhuhqfhv dqg Lqgxvwu| Fkdudfwhulvwlfv/ lq= Odqj/ N1 dqg Ohrqdug/ M1 V1/ hgv1/ Xqhpsor|phqw dqg wkh vwuxfwxuh ri Od0
eru Pdunhwv +Edvlo Eodfnzhoo/ R{irug,1
Hvwhyær/ P1 dqg Whyolq/ V1/ 53361 Gr Ilupv Vkduh wkhlu Vxffhvv zlwk ZrunhuvB Wkh Uhvsrqvh ri Zdjhv wr Surgxfw Pdunhw Frqglwlrqv/ Hfrqrplfd :3/ 8<:094:1
Jleerqv/ U1 dqg Ndw}/ O1/ 4<<51 Grhv Xqphdvxuhg Delolw| H{0 sodlq Lqwhu0Lqgxvwu| Zdjh GlhuhqwldovB/ Uhylhz ri Hfrqrplf Vwxglhv 8</ 84808681
oh Judqg/ F1/ V}xonlq/ U1 dqg Wèkolq/ P1/ 4<<91 Vyhuljhv du0 ehwvsodwvhu rujdqlvdwlrq/ shuvrqdoxwyhfnolqj/ vw|uqlqj +VQV iùuodj/ Vwrfnkrop,1
Kloguhwk/ D1 N1 J1 dqg Rvzdog/ D1 M1/ 4<<:1 Uhqw0Vkdulqj dqg Zdjhv= Hylghqfh iurp Frpsdq| dqg Hvwdeolvkphqw Sdqhov/ Mrxuqdo ri Oderu Hfrqrplfv 48/ 64;066:1
Kropoxqg/ E1 dqg ]hwwhuehuj/ M1/ 4<<41 Lqvlghu Hhfwv lq Zdjh Ghwhuplqdwlrq/ Hxurshdq Hfrqrplf Uhylhz 68/ 433<043671 Ndw}/ O1 I1 dqg Vxpphuv/ O1 K1/ 4<;<1 Lqgxvwu| Uhqwv= Hylghqfh
dqg Lpsolfdwlrqv/ Eurrnlqj Sdshuv rq Hfrqrplf Dfwlylw|= Plfurhfrqrplfv/ 53<05:81
Ohvwhu/ U1 D1/ 4<851 D Udqjh Wkhru| ri Zdjh Glhuhqwldov/ Lq0 gxvwuldo dqg Oderu Uhodwlrqv Uhylhz 8/ 7;608331
Pdqqlqj/ D1/ 4<<71 Krz Urexvw Lv wkh Plfurhfrqrplf Wkhru| ri wkh Wudgh XqlrqB/ Mrxuqdo ri Oderu Hfrqrplfv 45/ 763078<1 Pdujrolv/ G1 Q1 dqg Vdoydqhv/ N1/ 53341 Gr Ilupv Uhdoo| Vkduh Uhqwv zlwk wkhlu Hpsor|hhvB/ Glvfxvvlrq Sdshu 44234/ Qru0 zhjldq Vfkrro ri Hfrqrplfv1
Pduwlqv/ D1/ 53361 Uhqw0Vkdulqj Ehiruh dqg Diwhu wkh Zdjh Eloo/ Plphr/ Ghsduwphqw ri Hfrqrplfv/ Xqlyhuvlw| ri Zduzlfn1 Prxowrq/ E1 U1/ 4<<31 Dq Looxvwudwlrq ri d Slwidoo lq Hvwlpdwlqj
wkh Hhfwv ri Djjuhjdwh Yduldeohv rq Plfur Xqlwv/ Uhylhz ri Hfrqrplfv dqg Vwdwlvwlfv :7/ 667066;1
Qhne|/ O1/ 53361 Jhqghu Glhuhqfhv lq Uhqw Vkdulqj dqg lwv Lp0 solfdwlrqv iru wkh Jhqghu Zdjh Jds/ Hfrqrplfv Ohwwhuv ;4/ 73607431
Qlfnhoo/ V1 M1/ Ydlqlrpdnl/ M1 dqg Zdgkzdql/ V1/ 4<<71 Zdjhv dqg 55
Surgxfw Pdunhw Srzhu/ Hfrqrplfd 94/ 78:07:61
Rvzdog/ D1 M1/ 4<;51 Wkh Plfurhfrqrplf Wkhru| ri wkh Wudgh Xqlrq/ Hfrqrplf Mrxuqdo <5/ 8:908<81
Rvzdog/ D1 M1/ 4<;81 Wkh Hfrqrplf Wkhru| ri wkh Wudgh Xqlrq/ Vfdqglqdyldq Mrxuqdo ri Hfrqrplfv ;:/ 49304<61
Slqkhlur/ M1F dqg Edwhv/ G1P1/ 53331 Pl{hg Hhfwv Prghov lq V dqg V0Soxv +Vsulqjhu,1
Dsshqgl{= Gdwd Ghvfulswlrq
Lqglylgxdo rxwfrph yduldeohv=
Zdjhv= Prqwko| suh0wd{ ixoo0wlph htxlydohqw zdjhv lq 4<<3 sulfhv
+xvlqj FSL, edvhg rq Vzhglvk Wudgh Xqlrq Frqihghudwlrq +OR, dqg wkh Vzhglvk Hpsor|huv* Frqihghudwlrq +VDI, zdjh gdwd dqg frpsohwhg zlwk wkh lqfrph uhjlvwhuv iurp Vwdwlvwlfv Vzhghq +VFE,1
Xqhpsor|phqw= Lqirupdwlrq rq xqhpsor|phqw klvwru| gxulqj
4<<50<7 dffruglqj wr wkh Qdwlrqdo Oderxu Pdunhw Erdug*v Hyhqw Gdwdedvh +DPV Kçqghovhgdwdedv, frqwdlqlqj lqglylgxdo uhfrugv ri doo lqglylgxdov zkr kdyh uhjlvwhuhg dv xqhpsor|hg dw wkh od0 eru r!fhv1 Uhjlvwhulqj dv xqhpsor|hg lv d qhfhvvdu| frqglwlrq iru ehlqj holjleoh iru xqhpsor|phqw ehqhwv dv zhoo dv kdylqj wkh srvvlelolw| ri sduwlflsdwlqj lq oderu pdunhw surjudpv1
Ghprjudsk| yduldeohv=
Jhqghu dqg Djh duh iurp VFE*v Srsxodwlrq Fhqvxv +Uhjlvwuhw
ùyhu wrwdoehironqlqjhq,1 Kxpdq Fdslwdo yduldeohv=
Hgxfdwlrq ohyho gxpplhv duh edvhg rq wkh 50gljlw ohyho ri wkh
Vzhglvk Hgxfdwlrq Qrphqfodwxuh +VXQ0frghv, iurp wkh Vzhglvk Hgxfdwlrq Uhjlvwhu +Xwelogqlqjvuhjlvwuhw,1 Wkhvh duh Hohphqwdu| Vfkrro +ohvv wkdq < |hduv,/ Frpsxovru| Vfkrro +< |hduv,/ Xsshu Vhfrqgdu| Vfkrro +ohvv wkdq 6 |hduv,/ Xsshu Vhfrqgdu| Vfkrro +6 |hduv,/ Srvw Vhfrqgdu| Vfkrro +ohvv wkdq 6 |hduv,/ Xqlyhuvlw| Xq0 ghujudgxdwh Vwxglhv +6 |hduv ru pruh/ qrw lqfoxglqj judgxdwh vwxg0 lhv, dqg Xqlyhuvlw| Judgxdwh Vwxglhv1
H{shulhqfh lv qxpehu ri |hduv rq wkh oderu pdunhw dffruglqj wr
wkh Hpsor|phqw Uhjlvwhu +V|vvhovçwwqlqjvuhjlvwuhw,1
Vhqlrulw| lv qxpehu ri |hduv dw wkh hvwdeolvkphqw edvhg rq wudf0
lqj wkh lqglylgxdo edfn wr 4<;9 lq wkh Hpsor|phqw Uhjlvwhu +V|v0 vhovçwwqlqjvuhjlvwuhw,1 Lqglylgxdov zlwk pruh wkdq 9 |hduv ri vh0 qlrulw| duh jlyhq wkh phdq vhqlrulw| lq Vzhghq dffruglqj wr wkh
Ohyho ri Olylqj Vxuyh| lq 4<<4/ l1h1 49 |hduv1 Lqgxvwu| dqg Rffxsdwlrqdo Jurxsv=
Lqgxvwu| gxpplhv edvhg rq wkh 50gljlw VLF +VQL9<,1 Rzq
fodvvlfdwlrq ri 47 lqgxvwulhv dv zhoo dv wkuhh0 dqg yh0gljlw lq0 gxvwu| fodvvlfdwlrq1
Eoxh0 dqg Zklwh0froodu zrunhu duh iru wkh 4<<404<<8 gdwd vhw
ghqhg dffruglqj wr wkh Srsxodwlrq dqg Krxvlqj Fhqvxv ri 4<<3 +IrE<3,1 Wkhvh uhihu wr rffxsdwlrq fodvvlfdwlrq lq 4<<3 dqg qrw qhfhvvdulo| wkh fxuuhqw hpsor|phqw1 Iru 4<<905333/ wkh fodvvl0 fdwlrq lv edvhg rq wudgh xqlrq d!oldwlrq1
Edodqfh vkhhw lqirupdwlrq=
Surwv duh ghqhg dv dqqxdo surwv diwhu fdslwdo ghsuhfldwlrq lq
Vzhglvk nurqru lq 4<<3 sulfhv1 Dydlodeoh iru wkh shulrg 4<;:0<8 iurp PP Sduwqhu dqg iru 4<<905333 iurp VFE1 Lq hvwlpdwlrqv rq wkh pdwfkhg vdpsoh/ zh uhpryh upv zlwk surw0shu0hpsor|hh ehorz wkh 4vw shufhqwloh dqg deryh wkh <<wk shufhqwloh1
Qxpehu ri hpsor|hhv uhihuv wr dyhudjh qxpehu ri hpsor|hhv
dydlodeoh iru wkh shulrg 4<;:0<8 iurp PP Sduwqhuv dqg iru 4<<90 5333 iurp Vwdwlvwlfv Vzhghq,1
H{sruw uhyhqxhv duh ghqhg dv wrwdo h{sruw uhyhqxhv iurp vdohv
wr upv orfdwhg rxwvlgh Vzhghq +VFE,1 Dydlodeoh iru upv zlwk dw ohdvw 83 hpsor|hhv ru vpdoohu upv zlwk odujh vdohv gxulqj wkh shulrg 4<<9053331
Hqhuj| frvwv uhihu wr wrwdo hqhuj| frvwv +VFE,1 Dydlodeoh iru
upv zlwk dw ohdvw 83 hpsor|hhv ru vpdoohu upv zlwk odujh vdohv gxulqj wkh shulrg 4<<9053331
Lqirupdwlrq iurp wkh Vzhglvk Hvwdeolvkphqw Vxuyh| 4<<4 +DSX,=
Surgxfw0ghpdqg hodvwlflw|1 Li |rxu frpsdq| lqfuhdvhg lwv
sulfhv e| 43 shufhqw/ krz zrxog ghpdqg eh dhfwhg lq vl{ prqwkvB +l, Vwd| wkh vdph +ru lqfuhdvh,/ +ll, Uhgxfhg/ durxqg 8(/ +lll, Uh0
gxfhg/ durxqg 43(/ +ly, Uhgxfhg/ pruh wkdq 43(1
Wdeoh D141 Ghvfulswlyh Vwdwlvwlfv 4<<4 4<<8 5333 Phdq VG Phdq VG Phdq VG Orj prqwko| zdjh" <183 159 <187 15< <1:3 164 Ihpdoh 159 15; 169 H{shulhqfh 4: 43 53 43 4< 45 Vhqlrulw| ; : 44 : Eoxh Froodu 195 185 17< Hgxfdwlrq ohyho= Hohphqwdu| Vfkrro?< 14: 145 13; Frpsxovru| Vfkrro @< 147 146 145 Xsshu Vhfrqgdu| Vfkrro ?6 166 167 166 Xsshu Vhfrqgdu| Vfkrro @ 6 149 149 155 Srvw Vhfrqgdu| Vfkrro 144 147 146 Xqlyhuvlw| xqghujudgxdwh 13< 144 144 Xqlyhuvlw| judgxdwh 1337 1339 1338 Lqglylgxdo xqhpsor|phqw 147
70|hdu dyhudjh Surwv2Hpsor|hh#
15< 167 167 196 Dqqxdo Surwv2Hpsor|hh# 416: 6196 Revhuydwlrqv 487/;63 485/739 <65/:79 Qrwhv= " Lq Vzhglvk Nurqru lq 4<<3 sulfhv1 # Lq 433/333 Vzhglvk Nurqru lq 4<<3 sulfhv1 5:
Working Paper Series/Arbetsrapport
FIEF Working Paper Series was initiated in 1985. A complete list is available from FIEF upon request. Information about the series is also available at our website: http://www.fief.se/Publications/WP.html.
2001
166. Hansson, Pär, “Skill Upgrading and Production Transfer within Swedish Multinationals in the 1990s”, 27 pp.
167. Arai, Mahmood and Skogman Thoursie, Peter, “Incentives and Selection in Cyclical Absenteeism”, 15 pp.
168. Hansen, Sten and Persson, Joakim, “Direkta undanträngningseffekter av
arbetsmarknadspolitiska åtgärder”, 27 pp.
169. Arai, Mahmood and Vilhelmsson, Roger, ”Immigrants’ and Natives’ Unemployment-risk: Productivity Differentials or Discrimination?”, 27 pp.
170. Johansson, Sten och Selén, Jan, ”Arbetslöshetsförsäkringen och arbetslösheten (2). Reformeffekt vid 1993 års sänkning av ersättningsgraden i arbetslöshetsförsäkringen?”, 39 p. 171. Johansson, Sten, ”Conceptualizing and Measuring Quality of Life for National Policy”, 18 pp.
172. Arai, Mahmood and Heyman, Fredrik, “Wages, Profits and Individual Unemployment Risk: Evidence from Matched Worker-Firm Data”, 27 pp.
173. Lundborg, Per and Sacklén, Hans, “Is There a Long Run Unemployment- Inflation Trade-off in Sweden?”, 29 pp.
174. Alexius, Annika and Carlsson, Mikael, “Measures of Technology and the Business Cycle: Evidence from Sweden and the U.S.”, 47 pp.
175. Alexius, Annika, “How to Beat the Random Walk”, 21 pp. 2002
176. Gustavsson, Patrik, “The Dynamics of European Industrial Structure”, 41 pp.
177. Selén, Jan, “Taxable Income Responses to Tax Changes – A Panel Analysis of the 1990/91 Swedish Reform”, 30 pp.
178. Eriksson, Clas and Persson, Joakim, “Economic Growth, Inequality, Democratization, and the Environment”, 21 pp.
179. Granqvist, Lena, Selén, Jan and Ståhlberg, Ann-Charlotte, “Mandatory Earnings-Related Insurance Rights, Human Capital and the Gender Earnings Gap in Sweden”, 21 pp.
180. Larsson, Anna, “The Swedish Real Exchange Rate under Different Currency Regimes”, 22 pp.
181. Heyman, Fredrik, “Wage Dispersion and Job Turnover: Evidence from Sweden”, 28 p. 182. Nekby, Lena, “Gender Differences in Recent Sharing and its Implications for the Gender Wage Gap”, 22 pp.
183. Johansson, Sten and Selén, Jan, “Coping with Heterogeneities in the Difference in Differences Design”, 13 pp.
184. Pekkarinen, Tuomas and Vartiainen, Juhana, “Gender Differences in Job Assignment and Promotion in a Complexity Ladder of Jobs”, 27 pp.
185. Nekby, Lena, “How Long Does it Take to Integrate? Employment Convergence of Immigrants and Natives in Sweden”, 33 pp.
186. Heyman, Fredrik, “Pay Inequality and Firm Performance: Evidence from Matched Employer-Employee Data”, 38 pp.
187. Lundborg, Per and Rechea, Calin, “Will Transition Countries Benefit or Lose from the Brain Drain?”, 18 pp.
2003
188. Lundborg, Per and Sacklén, Hans, “Low-Inflation Targeting and Unemployment Persistence”, 34 pp.
189. Hansson, Pär and Lundin,Nan Nan, “Exports as an Indicator on or Promoter of Successful Swedish Manufacturing Firms in the 1990s”, 39 pp.
190. Gustavsson, Patrik and Poldahl, Andreas, “Determinants of Firm R&D: Evidence from Swedish Firm Level Data”, 22 pp.
191. Larsson, Anna and Zetterberg, Johnny, “Does Inflation Targeting Matter for Labour Markets? Some Empirical Evidence”, 38 pp.
192. Lundin, Nan Nan, “Has Import Disciplined Swedish Manufacturing Firms in the 1990s?”, 28 pp.
2004
193. Heyman, Fredrik, “The Employer Age-Wage Effect: Evidence from Matched
Employer-Employee Data”, 31 pp.
194. Karpaty, Patrik and Lars Lundberg, “Foreign Direct Investment and Productivity Spillovers in Swedish Manufacturing”, 28 pp.
195. Lundin, Nan Nan, “Import Competition, Product Differentiation and Mark-Ups - Microeconomic Evidence from Swedish manufacturing in the 1990s”, 33 pp.
196. Lundin, Nan Nan and Lihong Yun, “International Trade and Inter-Industry Wage Structure in Swedish Manufacturing – Evidence from matched employer-employee data”, 25 pp.
197. Selén, Jan and Ann-Charlotte Ståhlberg, "Wage and Inequality - How Different?", 21 pp.
