ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Summary and Analysis of the Foreign Trade Situation since the
Reform and Opening up in China
Xingdan Zheng*
Zhejiang University of Finance & Economics Dongfang College, Haining 314408, Zhejiang, China. E-mail: [email protected]
Abstract:In order to analyze the basic situation of China's foreign trade since the reform and opening up, this paper summarizes the basic situation of China's foreign trade in the 40 years of reform and opening up in 1980-2018 based on the data of the official website of the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) and creates charts. The data observation results show that except for the trade deficit in the 1980s, China's economic surplus, total imports and total exports rose in a straight line in the past 40 years. The rise in the '00's and the' 10's was much smaller than that in the previous 20 years, but it also stabilized a lot, which was a steady growth. The reference data shows that this is a normal phenomenon. It was predicted that China's foreign trade would grow more steadily, which is closely related to the foreshadowing decision made by the country now. China will maintain its leading position in the world while maintaining its economic growth.
Keywords:Basic Situation of Foreign Trade; Total Imports; Total Exports; Surplus; Deficit; Chart Observation
1. Introduction
Summarizing and analyzing the basic situation of China's foreign trade since the reform and opening up 40 years ago is the basis of learning from China's foreign trade and predicting the future development of China's foreign trade. According to the data from NBS, China's total import and export volume increased from 570 billion yuan in 1980 to 30,500,813 million yuan in 2018. In the past 40 years, the total import and export volume has increased by about 535 times, which shows for sure that China's economic development has increased in a straight line in the past 40 years. Such rapid development has also attracted the attention of many economists, but scholars are more interested in these 40 years in China. In recent years, China has not made a summary and analysis on the data of total imports and total exports.
How did China rise in the past 40 years? It is of great significance to summarize the basic situation of China's foreign trade in the past 40 years.
2. Analysis method and variable selection
2.1 Analysis method
2.1.1 Cylindrical graph
A column chart is a statistical chart with the length of a rectangle as a variable. The bar chart is used to compare
Copyright © 2020 Xingdan Zheng doi: 10.18686/fm.v5i2.1614
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two or more groups of data under different conditions (import trade volume and export trade volume in this paper), while the variable is only one (year in this paper), which is generally used for data set analysis with little difference, and the column chart can be horizontal or vertical. In this paper, the column chart can be used to compare the import trade volume and export trade volume in one year with the import trade volume and export trade volume in other years, which is conducive to the observation and analysis of data.
2.1.2 Scatter plot
Scatter plots display data as a set of points. The size of the value can be clearly indicated by the position of the point in the chart (the balance of import and export trade in this paper). In this paper, we use scatter chart to express the data of import and export trade balance with y-axis. With x-axis as the dividing line, one can clearly show the positive and negative of the data, that is, surplus or deficit. One can also clearly show the size of surplus or deficit, which is convenient to observe the change of import and export trade balance in a period.
2.2 Variable selection
Since the more intuitive information collected on the official website of NBS is the data of foreign trade transactions since the reform and opening up of China. It is decided to take the data collected on the official website as variables and analyze the results as the basis to explain the basic situation of foreign trade in the past 40 years.
2.2.1 Total import and export volume (unit: 100 million yuan)
Total imports and exports include goods actually imported and exported in foreign trade, goods donated by overseas Chinese, compatriots of Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, and foreign Chinese among countries, the United Nations and international organizations, leased goods owned by the lessee at the end of the lease term, import and export goods processed with imported materials and imported materials, and trade in border areas (generally all import and export small goods or public goods of foreign-funded enterprises, import and export samples and advertising goods, excluding those without commercial value, use value or free export, whose FOB price is above the specified limit, goods proposed from bonded warehouses and sold in China, and some other types of import and export goods. The trade of these goods is largely influenced by the government's economic policies, which can better reflect the development process of China's foreign trade economy and the policies made by China in the face of economic changes at that time. Total import and export trade = total import + total export
2.2.2 Import and export balance (unit: 100 million yuan)
The calculation formula is: the balance of import and export = the total mount of exports - the total amount of imports. The balance of import and export reflects the balance of a country's foreign trade in general, that is, whether a country is surplus or deficit in this year. It is the main indicator reflecting the role of foreign trade in the national economy. When the total amount of exports is greater than the total amount of imports, the difference is a positive number. At this time, the country's foreign trade in this year is surplus, also known as surplus. When the total amount of exports is less than the total amount of imports, the difference is negative, then the country's foreign trade in this year is deficit, also known as deficit.
2.2.3 Year on year growth rate of total import and export (%)
In this paper, it refers to the growth rate compared with last year's total import and export, the year-on-year growth and the growth rate of the previous year. The data of the year-on-year growth rate in this paper are all expressed in percentage. This can clearly show the development of domestic and foreign trade in a period of time and more easily predict the future development.
Year on year growth rate of total import and export = (total import and export of this year / total import and export of last year - 1) × 100%
3.1 Experimental research results
According to the research methods mentioned above, the author first makes statistics and graphs on the import and export trade volume of each year, and divide them into ten years to represent the data changes of a period. Use the formula import-export balance = export amount - import amount to calculate the import-export balance. Use the scatter chart to show the surplus or deficit. What is the difference between the two.
FromTable 1, the author draws a conclusion that except the export trade volume (35.754 billion yuan) in 1982 was slightly lower than that in 1981 (367.73), the import trade volume and export trade volume increased steadily from 1980 to 1989 compared with the previous year, especially since 1985, the growth rate of total import and export reached 72.1%. In the data of the balance of import and export trade, it is obvious that except the trade surplus in 1982 and 1983, the other years are deficit, which shows that the import trade volume is larger than the export trade volume in this decade.
Year 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 Growth rate of total import
and export of the previous year
0 29.0% 4.9% 11.5% 39.6% 72.1% 24.9% 19.5% 23.9% 8.7%
Total import trade (100 million yuan)
298.8 367.73 357.54 421.82 620.47 1257.85 1498.26 1614.21 2055.07 2199.86 Total export trade (100
million yuan)
271.2 367.61 413.83 438.33 580.56 808.86 1082.11 1469.95 1766.72 1956.06 Import and export balance
(100 million yuan)
-27.6 -0.1 56.3 16.5 -39.91 -448.99 -416.2 -144.2 -288.4 -243.8 Table 1.
From Table 2, it can be seen that from 1990 to 1999, the volume of import and export trade has also increased dramatically, as in the previous decade. However, unlike in the previous decade, the volume of export trade from 1990 to 1999 was basically larger than the volume of import trade. Except for the trade deficit in 1993, the volume of trade in other years was surplus. Especially in 1998, the difference between total exports and total imports was the largest. In terms of the growth rate of total import and export, the largest growth rate was 80.8% in 1994, and the lowest was -0.4% in 1998. The increase in total imports and exports from 1990 to 1994 was better than that from 1995 to 1999. Of course, in this period of the 1990s, China's "made in China" brand began to grow. Many foreign investors also rushed to China with cheap labor force, making a huge contribution to China's export volume.
According toTable 3, from 2000 to 2009, the volume of import and export trade did not grow as sharply as in the previous decade. From 2000 to 2008, the volume of import and export trade was still growing steadily, but in 2009, it suddenly fell by a small margin. The balance of import and export trade increased dramatically in 2004, and the amount of surplus increased. It also fell in 2009. The growth rate of total import and export trade reached a peak of 35.5% in 2004 and a minimum of - 16.3% in 2009.
Year 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Growth rate of
total import and export of the previous year
33.8% 30.0% 26.2% 23.6% 80.8% 15.3% 2.7% 11.7% -0.4% 11.3%
Total import trade (100 million yuan)
2574.28 3398.65 4443.33 5986.21 9960.06 11048.13 11557.43 11806.56 11626.14 13736.46
Total export trade (100 million yuan)
2985.84 3827.1 4676.29 5284.81 10421.84 12451.81 12576.43 15160.68 15223.54 16159.77
Import and export balance (100 million yuan)
411.56 428.45 232.96 -701.4 461.78 1403.68 1019 3354.12 3598.4 2423.31
Table 2.
Year 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Growth rate of total import and export of the previ-ous year
31.4 %
7.4% 21.8% 37.2% 35.5% 22.4% 20.6% 18.4% 7.8% -16.3%
Total import trade (100 million yuan) 1863 8.81 20159. 18 24430. 27 34195.5 6 46435.7 6 54273.6 8 63376.8 6 73296.9 3 79526.53 68618.3 7 Total export trade (100 million yuan) 2063 4.44 22024. 44 26947. 87 36287.8 9 49103.3 3 62648.0 9 77597.8 9 93627.1 4 100394.9 4 82029.6 9 Import and export balance (100 million yuan) 1995. 63 1865.2 6
2517.6 2092.32 2667.57 8374.41 14221.0 3
20330.2 0
20868.41 13411.32
Table 3.
From Table 4, it can be seen that from 2010 to 2018, the volume of import and export trade is relatively stable, with a slight rise or fall, but it will rise back or fall again in the next year or two years, while maintaining a relatively stable growth. From the growth rate of total import and export, we can see that the growth rate is much more stable than that of the previous three decades, basically maintaining stable growth.
Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Growth rate
of total impo-rt and export of the previous year
33.9% 17.2% 3.3% 5.7% 2.4% -7% -0.9% 14.3% 9.7%
Total import trade (100 million yuan)
94699. 5
113161.39 114800.96 121037.46 120358.03 104336.1 104967.17 124789.81 140880.32
Total export trade (100 million yuan)
107022 .84
123240.56 129359.25 137131.43 143883.75 141166.83 138419.29 153309.43 164127.81
Import and export balanc e (100 million yuan)
12323. 34
10079.16 14558.29 16093.98 23525.72 36830.73 33452.12 28519.62 23247.49
Table 4.
3.2 Analysis of data and situation
A country's balance of payments surplus and deficit can be seen how a country's level of development, the level of a country's national economy. From the perspective of the economic development history of various countries, a country's development from an agricultural country to a developed industrial country generally needs to go through four stages of development, and the external balance of payments in each stage is in line with the economic development level at that time, showing different characteristics. The total amount of import and export trade in the past 40 years (four years) of China's reform and opening-up just reflects the truth of these four stages.
In the 1980s, China's reform and opening up was in the early stage, which was the first stage. From the figure, the growth of international trade from 1983 to 1989 was rapid, which can be said to be a straight-line rise. The import trade volume increased from 42.182 billion CNY to 219.986 billion CNY, and the export trade volume increased from 43.833 billion CNY to 1956.06 billion yuan - the total import volume was even more fierce than the total export volume. This period is also a period of large-scale economic construction of the country, which requires the introduction of a large number of advanced technology and equipment from abroad to speed up the pace of economic construction. Therefore, in foreign trade, the import is larger than the export, in the situation of deficit, we need to rely on foreign loans to make up for the balance of foreign trade. During this decade, trade growth was quite rapid, especially after 1985. Through consulting the data, the author found that some important policies implemented in 1985 had a huge impact on China's total import and export trade.
On April 1, the State Council issued the circular on strengthening the export to guarantee the foreign exchange income of the country, stressing that we should adhere to the direction of the reform of the foreign trade system, resolutely complete the export plan of 1985, and make specific provisions on encouraging the expansion of export import and export financial accounting, hierarchical management, the implementation of the license system, and the strengthening of the management of import and export trading companies.[2]
In March 1985, the State Council approved and transmitted the circular of the Ministry of Finance on the report of levying, refunding product tax or value added tax on import and export products and the circular of the Ministry of Foreign Economic Relations and Trade, the State Planning Commission and the State Administration of foreign exchange on the measures for foreign exchange retention of export commodities. These are two major measures taken in recent years to further mobilize the export enthusiasm of export product manufacturers and export enterprises by
means of economic adjustment.[2]
In the 1980s, with the rapid development of the third scientific and technological revolution, the world also carried out industrial restructuring. The proportion of high-tech intensive industries in the world's production has grown rapidly, and the upgrading and replacement of products have accelerated in this era. It shows that China's economic reform is effective after the reform and opening up.[1]
In the 1990s, China's reform and opening-up made some achievements, which was the second stage and initially completed the main economic structure. In this period, China's productivity level has developed greatly, and the country as a whole began to get rid of poverty and backwardness. In terms of foreign trade, the total amount of import trade increased from 2574.22 billion yuan to 1373.646 billion yuan, and the export trade increased from 298.584 billion yuan to 1615.977 billion yuan. The export trade increased significantly and exceeded the import trade amount. The deficit situation in the 1980s was changed into a surplus situation, but due to the previous borrowing needs to pay interest, current account and the capital account was basically flat. But looking up the data, I found that there are a lot of reasons for China's export. We classified the products whose competitiveness index is greater than or equal to 0.8 as the products with high comparative advantage or strong competitiveness. Apart from a few unprocessed products, most of them are labor-intensive products suitable for China's resource endowment in the 1990s. In 1997, the export of these products accounted for 28.7% of China's total export value, of which clothing accounted for 17.1%. This shows that in this period, the export of labor-intensive products is an important guarantee for China's economic growth, employment stability and trade surplus.[3]And the name "made in China" began to shine in this period.
In the period from the beginning of 2000 to the decade, it was the third stage, and China could be said to have formed a relatively complete economic system. During this period, the economy developed at a relatively fast speed and the domestic living standard improved greatly. The foreign trade has changed from being in excess to being out of excess, and from borrowing abroad to lending abroad. The volume of import trade rose from 1863881 million CNY to 7952.653 billion CNY, but fell back to 6861.837 billion CNY in 2009, and the volume of export trade rose from 2063.444 billion CNY to 10039.494 billion CNY, and fell back to 8202.969 billion CNY in 2009. It can be seen from the figure that after 2001, the total volume of import and export trade began to increase much more than that of the previous years. After consulting the data, it was found that in 2001, China joined the world trade organization, and the world trade organization was able to adapt to the globalization and all-round opening-up of the world economy and the integration form required by China's further reform and opening-up. Therefore, in 2001, China joined the World Trade Organization China's foreign trade in the 21st century provides better trade resources and environment. Until 2008, after the subprime crisis broke out, it developed from a regional financial crisis to a global financial crisis, and changed from a global financial crisis to an economic crisis, which had a significant impact on the global financial industry and the real economy.
By the end of the decade, the national economic system was becoming more and more complete, and the economic and technological level was leading in the world. At that time, China's economic development was relatively stable, and the total amount of foreign trade imports was greater than the total amount of exports.[1]In 2010, China and 10 ASEAN
countries negotiated for ten years and signed the China ASEAN Free Trade Agreement. The market in ASEAN is the most populous free trade area in the world and the third largest free trade area of global GDP. Signing the agreement with ASEAN brings another big international market resource to China's foreign trade. By the end of 2015, China and most ASEAN countries had already signed the agreement with most of them. There is no tariff for tradable goods, so we can see in the figure that the balance of import and export between 2010 and 2015 is surplus and growing. Of course, a country's balance of import and export can't always have such a surplus, or it will have a spear shield in trade with its
investors, which provides a huge opportunity for foreign investors to enter into emerging industries and encourages foreign investors to import emerging products. The "negative list" has started to increase China's total imports. After several years of practice, this policy is very effective. In 2018, the Chinese government decided to extend this policy to the whole country. One belt, one road that is most familiar to you, is the white paper on the vision and action of promoting the construction of the Silk Road Economic Belt and the maritime Silk Road in twenty-first Century, which was jointly authorized by the three ministries of the national development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of foreign affairs and the Ministry of Commerce in March 2015. "One belt, one road" China has become the core key to understand the overall strategy of China's national development in the coming period, and has become a window for the profound transformation of China's internal and foreign policies. "One belt, one road" policy aims at promoting the development of the western region, developing the resources of the western region, and taking the West as a new economic pulling area, and it is a policy with long-term interests for China's economic development.[5]
4. Conclusion and expectation of China's foreign trade in the future
This paper analyzes and summarizes the situation of China's foreign trade in the past 40 years of reform and opening up from the perspectives of total imports, total exports, total imports and exports and the balance between imports and exports by means of consulting data, formula calculation and chart observation. And draw the following conclusions: first, China's reform and opening up in the early 1980s, China's foreign trade, import is greater than export, in the situation of deficit. Because in the period of large-scale economic construction in the 1980s, a large number of advanced technology and equipment were introduced from abroad to speed up the pace of economic construction. The state has also taken a lot of economic measures, such as the issuance of the circular on strengthening the export guarantee of foreign exchange revenue of the state, the circular of the State Council on approving and transmitting the report of the Ministry of Finance on levying or refunding product tax or value added tax on import and export products, and the circular of the Ministry of Foreign Economic Relations and Trade, the State Planning Commission and the State Administration of foreign exchange on the measures for foreign exchange retention of export commodities. Second, China's reform and opening-up made some achievements in the 1990s. During this period, China's productivity level developed greatly, and the country as a whole began to get rid of poverty and backwardness. Trade also changed from deficit to surplus, and began to export, but most of the export commodities are labor-intensive products suitable for China's resource endowment in the 1990s. Third, China's economy developed at a relatively fast speed in the '00's, and the domestic living standard improved greatly. This is because the great event of China's accession to the World Trade Organization in 2001 has brought great convenience to the development of China's foreign trade. In the global financial crisis of 2009, China's total imports and exports have declined, but compared with other countries, China's decline is relatively small. Fourth, China's national economic system is becoming more and more complete, and its economic and technological level is in the leading position in the world. The total amount of foreign trade imports is greater than the total amount of exports. Of course, the government has also done a lot in expanding trade, such as signing the China ASEAN Free Trade Agreement, opening a coastal pilot Free Trade Zone, and establishing a "negative list" investment model in the pilot free trade zone. It makes China surpass other countries to become the second largest import and export trade country after the United States.
China's China's foreign trade one belt, one road, and the other, the 1 countries. The 2020 year 2022 China's export trade development showed a steady growth trend because of the "one belt and one way" policy, but the growth rate was relatively small.[6](2) from the chart of import and export balance in the previous four periods, it is expected that from
2020, the balance of import and export trade will decrease before 2024, and may change from surplus to deficit. In the next few years, the surplus may gradually increase to the maximum and then fall back a little. (3) The growth rate of total import and export is more stable than that of the decade, and may fluctuate between - 10% and 15%. The national economy will also grow steadily.
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