©
2 0 1 2
C
h
ris
to
p
h
e rA
nd
r ew
W
e r n e rA b
s
t
r a c
t
C
h
ri
st
op
h
e rA
nd
r ew
W
e r n e rU S A i
rQ
u al
it y I
m
p
a ct
s of
N
at i
o nw id
eEx
t
e n sio n o
f
t
he
In
-U
s eO
f f
-R
o ad
D i
e s el
V
eh
i
cle
R
eg
ula
t io n s
A
d
op t
ed b
y t
h
eC
al
ifo r n
ia
E
n vi
r o nm
e nt
al
P
r ot
e ct io
nA g
ency A i
rR
e s o u r c e sB
o a rd
(
C A R B
)
(
U
nd
e rt
h
ed
ir e c
t io n o
f
D
r.J
.Ja s o n
W
e st
,D
rD
avi
d
L
eit
h,
a nd
D
rW
i
l lia
m V i
zu et
e)
M
od
e r n c o nt
r ols
n e a rl
y
el
im
in a
t
ed
i
e s el
p
a rt ic u
la
t
em
at t
er(
P
M
)
em
i
s si
o n s.B y
c o nt
r ol li
ng
o
ld
e r e ng i
n e s, em
i
s sio n s
of
P
M
,S O
2,N O
x,C
O
, a nd h
y
d
r o c a rb
o n s c a nb
e r ed
u c ed
t
ha
t
w
o ul d
o
t
h
e rw
is e
c o nt i
n u e u nt i
l
e xis
t i
ng
eq
ui p
m
e nt
is
r et
ir e
d
W
ei
n v e st ig
at
et
h
e air
q
u al i
t y
b
e n efit
s of
ah
y p
ot
h
et i
c al
n at i
o n al
p
r og
r am
t
h
at
r et
r of it
s n o n r o ad
d
ie s e
l
eq
uip m
e nt
a nd
a c c ele r a
t
e sf le e
t
t
u r n o v e r,m
od
ele
d
af
t
erC
al if
or nia
's
In
-U
seO
f f
-ro a
d
D ie s e
l
V
eh
ic
le
Re
g
ula
t i
onsU
sin
g
2 0 0 5
m
et
e o r ol
og y
a nd
em
is s
io n s
f
r om
E P A
in v e n
t
o rie s
,w
em
od
el
t
h
e ef f
e ct
s of
t
h i
sp
rog
r am
o nU S
air
q
u al
it y i
n s um m
e rm
o nt
h
s, u si
ng t
h
eC
om
m
u nit y
M
ult i
s c ale
A ir
Q
u al
i t y
m
od
el
at 3 6
k m
r e s ol
ut i
o n.N
at i
o nw
id
e ad
op t i
o nw
o uld
s ub
st
a nt ia
l l
y
d
e cre a s eP
M
2 5 c o n c e nt
r at io n s
, e sp
e ci
al ly
i
np
ol lu
t
ed
m
et
r op
ol it
a n a r e a s,w it
h
a v e r ag
ed
e c r e a s e s of 0
.6 8 n g
/
m
^(
o v e r1 0 %
)
i
n s om
e a r e a s,m
ain
l
y
f
r om
d
e c r e a s e si
n ele
m
ent
al
c arbo
nRe
d
u ct io n s
i
n a v e r ag
ed
ai
l
y
m
axim
um
8
-h
o u r ozo n ei
n r ural
a re a sT
a
b l
e o
f C
o
n
t
e
n
t
s
L i
st
of T
ab l
e s5
L i
st
of
Fig
u r e s6
C H A P T ER 1
:I
nt
r od
u ct
i
o n a nd O b
j
e ct
i
v e s8
B
a ck
g
r o u nd
o nP
a rt
i
c ul
at
eM
at t
e r a nd
B
la c
k Ca r
b
o n8
C
li m
at
eEf f
e ct
s of
P
a rt i
c ul
at
eM
at t
e r a nd B l
a ck
C
a rb
o n9
H
e alt
h
Ef f
e ct
s of
P
a rt ic u
la
t
eM
at t
e r a nd
B
l
a ck
C
a rb
o n9
Cu r r e n
t T
r e nd
sin
P
M
Em
is s
i
o nR
eg
ul
at
io n s
1 0
P
M
i
nt
h
eM
ob
i
l
eSo u r c e
Se c
t
o r1
0
M
ob
i
l
eSo u r c e
S
e ct
o rC
o nt
ri
b
ut io
nt
oEm
is s
io n s
In
ve nt
o ry
1 0
M
ob
i
le
So u
rc eS
e ct
o rU S
R
eg
ula
t
ory L
a nd
s c ap
e1 1
M
ob
i
le
So u
rc eSe c
t
o rU
.S
.E m i
s si
o nR
ed
u ct i
o nO
p p
ort
u nit ie s
1 2
C
al
if
o r nia
R
eg
ul
at i
o n sA p p
li
c ab l
et
oI
n-U
s eD i
e s el
En
g i
n e s1 2
O b
j
e ct
iv e s
1
3
C H A P T E R 2
:M
et
h
od
ol
og y
1 3
E
xp
e ri
m
e nt
al D
e sig
n1 3
E
m is s
io n s
In v e n
t
o ry
1 4
D
ef i
ni t
io n o
f
P
e rt
u rba
t io n
S
c e n a ri
o1
5
P
oli
cy D
et
ai
l
s&
E
m i
s si
o n sR
ed
u ct i
o nC
al
c ul
at
i
o n s1
6
In
f l
u e n c e of
D i
e s el
F
u el S
ulf
u rC
o nt
e nt
2 1
P
e rt
u rba
t
io n
Ca s e
A
s s um p
t
i
o n s2 2
A
i
rQ
u al i
t y
M
od
el i
ng
2
3
I
m p
o rt
a nt N
ot
e s o nBa s e c a s e a n
d
P
e rt
u rb
at i
o nCa s e
2 4
C H A P T E R 3
:Re s u
lt
s a nd
D i
s c u s si
o n2 4
B
a s e c a s eR
e s ult
s2 4
Ef f
e ct
of
C
o nt
r ol S
c e n a ri
o o nEm
i
s sio n s
2
6
Ef f
e ct
of
C
o nt
r ol
S
c e n a ri
o o nA
v e r ag
eP
M
2 52 7
Ef f
e ct
of
C
o nt
r ol S
c e n a ri
o o nA
v e r ag
eO
z o n e3 3
Ef f
e ct
of
C
o nt
r ol S
c e n a ri
o o nE p
i
s od i
cPM
2 53 5
Ef f
e ct
of C
o nt
r ol S
c e n a ri
o o nE p
i
s od i
cO
z o n e3 8
D
i
s c u s sio n
4
2
C H A P T E R 4
:C
o n cl
u si
o n s4 4
S
up p
le
m
e nt
a
ry I
n
f
o
rm
a
t io n
4 6
L i
s
t
o
f
T
a
b l
e s
T
ab le
1
:A
n n u al U S
em
i
s sio n s
f
r om S CC 2 2 7 0 0 0 2 0 0 0
(
Co n s
t
r u ct
io n
& M i
ni
ng
)
,i
nt
o n s/
y
e a r a nd
a sp
e r c e nt
ag
e of
t
ot
al
U
.S
. a nt
h
r op
og
e nic e
m
is s
io n s
1 7
T
ab le
2
:C A R B
-p
r oj
e ct
ed
em
i
s sio n s
,i
nt
o n s/
y
e a r,f
o rb
a s eli
n ei
n2 0 10
a nd
w
/
R
eg
uia
t io n
in
2
0
2
5
,fo r
a
l l CA
n on ro ad d
ie s e
l
s e ct
ors af f
e ct
ed b
y t
h
eC A R B
reg
ul
at io
n s1 7
T
ab l
e3
:CA R B
-p
r oj
e ct
ed
em i
s sio n s
,i
nt
o n s/
y
e a r,f
o rb
a s eli
n ein
2
0
1 0
a nd
w
/
R
eg
ula
t i
o ni
n2 0 2 5
,a
d
j
u st
ed
t
o r ef le c
t t
h
e c o n st
ru ct io n a n
d m
i
ni
ng
(
C
& M
)
s e ct
o r o nly
1 9
T
ab
l
e4
:S
c al in
g
fa c
t
or adj
ust
m
e nt
s1
9
T
ab l
e5
:U
S
-w
id
e e
m
i
s sio n r e
d
u ct io n s
f
o rt
h
e c o n st
r u ct i
o n a nd m
in
i
ng
s e ct
o rif
C A R B
reg
ul
at io n s
a
d
op t
ed
n at i
onw
id
e and
i
ncl
ud
in
g
b
u si
ne s s-a s-u s u al f l
e et t
ur nover
2 1
T
ab l
e6
:A
n n u al
U
S
em
i
s si
o n s r ed
u ct i
o n sf
r om
SC C 2 2
7
0 0
0 2
0 0 0
(
C
o n st
r u ct
io n
& M
in
i
ng
)
,i
nt
o n s/
y
e a r a nd
a sp
e r c e nt
ag
e of
t
ot
al
U
.S
. a nt
h
rop
og
e nic e
m
is s
io n s
2 1
T
abl
e7
:A
b
s olu
t
e and
p
erc ent
ag
ed
ecre a s e si
n3
-m
ont
h
averag
eP
M
2 5i
nt h
e sin
g
le
g
ri
d
c el ls
w it
h
t
h
el
a rg
e st p
e r c e nt
ag
ed
e c r e a s e, a nd
t
h
eU S
m
et
r op
olit
a n a r e a sw
h
e r et
h
ed
e c r e a s e s o c c u r2
9
T
ab le
8
:A
b
s olu
t
e and
p
e r c e nt
ag
ed
e cre a s e sin
3
-m
o nt
h
a v e r ag
em
a xi m
um
8
-h
o u rd
ai
ly
o z o n ei
nL i
s
t
o
f F i g
u
r e s
F
ig
u r e1
:C
o nt
ri
b
ut io n s
t
ob l
a ck
a nd
o rg
a nic c a r
b
o n em
i
s si
o n s,b
y
s e ct
o r8
F ig
ure2
:U S
B C
em i
s sio n s
f
r om t
r a n sp
o rt
s e ct
or1 1
F
ig
u r e3
:E
m
i
s si
on st
a nd
a rd
t ie
rd
i
st
rib
ut i
o n of Ca
lif
o r ni
a v eh ic
le
p
op
ula
t i
o n s ub
j
e ct t
op
r op
o s ed
r e
g
ul
at i
o n1
8
Fig
u r e4
:3
-m
o nt
h
a v e r ag
e of P M
2 5f
o rt
h
eb
a s e c a s e2 5
F ig
ure5
:3
-m
o nt
h
a v erag
e of m
a xim
um d
ai
ly 8
-ho u r o
zon ef
ort
h
eba s e c a s e
2 6
F ig
u r e6
:R
ed
u ct i
o ni
nP
M f i
n e em i
s si
o n sin
t
h
ep
e rt
u rb
at
i
o n c a s e, r ela
t iv e
t
ot
h
eb
a s e c a s e(
t
y p
ic a
l
)
2 7
Fig
u r e7
:R
ed
u ct i
o ni
n3
-m
o nt
h
a v e r a
g
eP
M
2 5in
t
h
ep
e rt
u rb
at io n c a s e
, r el
at iv e
t
ot
h
eb
a s e c a s e2 7
F i
g
u r e8
:C
h
a ng
ei
n3
-m
o nt
h
a v e r ag
eP
M
2 5be
t
w
e e nb
a s e a nd
p
e rt
u rb
at io n c a s e s
, exp
r e s s ed
o np
e r c e nt
ag
eb
a sis
2 8
F ig
u r e9
:D
ai
ly
a v e r ag
eP
M
2 5i
nt
h
eb
a s e c a s e,A
ug
u st 1 2
3 0
F i
g
u r e1
0
:D
e c r e a s ei
nd
ai
l
y
a v e r ag
eP
M
2 5f
r om
t
h
eb
a s e c a s et
ot
h
ep
e rt
u rb
at io n c a s e
,A
ug
u st 1 2
3 0
F ig
ure1 1
:D
e c r e a s ei
nd
ai
l
y
av erag
e ele
m
e nt
al
c a rbo n a e
ro s ol f
r om
t
h
eb
a s e c a s et
ot
he
p
e rt
u rb
at io n c a s e
,A
ug
u st 1 2
3
1
F i
g
u r e1
2
:D
e c r e a s ei
nd
ai ly
a v e r ag
e o rg
a nic c a r
b
o n a e r o s ol f
r om
t
h
eb
a s e c a s et
ot
h
ep
e rt
u r ab
t
i
o nc a s e,
A
ug
u st 1 2
3 1
F ig
u r e1 3
:D
e c r e a s ei
nd
ai
l
y
averag
e nit
r at
e a e r o s ol f
rom
t
h
eb
a s e c a s et
ot
h
ep
e rt
u rb
at io n c a s e
,A
ug
u st 1 2
32
F
ig
u r e1 4
:D
e c r e a s ei
nd
ai ly
a v e r ag
e s ulf
at
e a e r o s ol f
r om
t
h
eb
a s e c a s et
ot
h
ep
e rt
u rb
at
io n c a s e
,A
ug
u st 1 2
3 2
F i
g
u r e1 5
:R
ed
u ct io n
i
n3
-m
o nt
h
a v e r ag
em
a xi
m
um
8
-h
o u rd
ai
ly
ozo n ef
o rt
h
ep
e rt
u rb
at i
o n c a s e,r e
l
at
iv e
t
ot
he
b
a s e c a s e3 3
F ig
u r e1
6
:D
e c r e a s ei
n3
-m
o nt
h
a v e r ag
em
a xi m
um
8
-h
o u rd
ai
l
y
o z o n eb
et w
e e nb
a s e a nd
Fi g
u r e1 7
:E
f f
e ct
of
p
ol
ic
y
o nf
iv e
h
ig
h
e st P
M
2 5d
ay
si
nN
ew Y
o rk
,N Y
3 6
Fi g
ure1 8
:E
f f
e ct
of
p
ol
ic
y
onf
iv e
h
ig
h
e st P
M
2 5d
ay
si
n n ort
h
east
er nN
ew J
e r s ey
(
c o u nt i
e si
m m
ed
ia
t
el
y w
e st
of
N Y C
)
3 6
Fi
g
u r e1
9
:E
f f
e ct
of p
ol i
cy
o nf
iv e
h i
g
h
e st P
M
2 5d
ay
si
nH
o u st
o n,T X
(
& i
m
m
ed i
at
e vi
ci
ni
t
y
t
os o u
t
h
e a st
)
3
7
Fi g
u r e2
0
:E
f f
e ct
of
p
ol
ic
y
o nf
iv e
h
ig
h
e st P
M
2 5d
ay
si
nS
t
Lo u
i
s,M O
(
&
s u r r o u nd i
ng
n o n at t
ai
nm
e nt
a r e a
)
3 7
F i
g
u r e2 1
:E
f f
e ct
of
p
ol
ic
y
onf
iv
eh
i g
h
e st P
M
2 5d
ay
si
nR
al
eig
h
,N C
(
W
ak
eC
o u nt
y
)
3 8
F ig
u r e2
2
:E
f f
e ct
of
p
ol
ic
y
onf
iv
eh
i g
h
e st P
M
2 5d
ay
si
nD
u rh
am
,N C
(
&
vic
i
ni t y
)
3 8
F ig
u r e2 3
:E
f f
e ct
of
p
ol
i
cy
o nf
iv e
h i
g
h
e st
o z o n ed
ay
si
nN
ew
Y
o rk
,N Y
3 9
F ig
u r e2 4
:E
f f
e ct
of
p
ol
i
cy
o nf
iv e
h i g h
e st
o z o n ed
ay
si
n n o rt
h
e a ste r n
N
ew
J
e r s ey
(
c o u nt
i
e si
m
m
ed
ia
t
el
y w
e st
of
N Y C
)
4 0
F
i
g
u r e2
5
:E
f f
e ct
of
p
ol
i
cy
o nf i
v eh i
g
h
e st
o z o n ed
ay
si
nH
o u st
on ,T X
(
&
i
m m
ed
ia
t
e vi
ci
ni t
y
t
os o u
t
h
e a st
)
4 0
F ig
u r e2
6
:E
f f
e ct
of
p
ol
ic
y
o nf
iv e
h i g h
e st
o z o n ed
ay
si
nS
t
L
o uis
,M O
(
&
s u r r o u nd
in
g
n o n at t
ain
m
e nt
a r e a
)
4 1
F
i
g
u r e2 7
:Ef f
e ct
of p
oli
cy
o nf
iv e
h
ig
h
e st
o z o n ed
ay
si
nR
al
eig
h
,N
C
(
W
ak
eC
o u nt y
)
4
1
C H A P T E R 1
:
I
n
t
r o
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
a
n
d O b
j
e c
t
i
v
e s
B
a c
k g
r o u nd
o nP
a rt i
c ul
at
eM
at t
e r a nd
B
l
a
ck C
a
rb
o nPa r
t
i
c ul
at
em
at t
e r(
P
M
)
, a st
h
et
e rm i
s u s ed i
n at
m
o sp h
e ric s c
i
e n c e,i
s a n a e r o s ol
c om
p
ri
s ed
o
f p
a rt ic
l
e s s u sp
e nd
ed
in a
i
rIt
s c o n st it
u e nt
sp
e cie s a r e
m
ai
nl
y
o rg
a nic c a r
b
o n(
O C
)
a nd b l
a ck
c a rb
o n(
B C
)
, al
o ng
w
it
h
sulf
u r and
ot
h
e r ch
em i
c als
(
Ba c
h
m
an n2 0 0 9
)
B la c
k
c a rb
o n, als o
k
n ow
n a sg
rap
h
it ic
or e
l
em
e nt
al
c a rb
o n, c o n sis
t
s of d
a rk
-c o
l
o r ed
c a rb
o np
a rt ic
l
e sp
ri
m
a ri
l
y
c om
p
o s ed
of
el
em
e nt
al
c a r
b
o nB
l
a ck
c a rb
o nis
ap
r od
u ct
of
t
h
ei
n c om
p l
et
e c om b
u st io n
of
c a rb
o n-c o n
t
ai
nin
g f
u el
sIt
se
m
is s
io n s a r e
a r e s ul
t
of
a v a ri
et y
of
p
r o c e s s e s, c om
p
ri
si
ng
:b
u r ni
ng
of b
i
om
a s s(
w h
ic
h
in c
l
ud
e s,a
m
o ng
ot
h
ert
h
in
g
s, n at
ural f
ore st
f
ir
e s a nd
h
um
a nb
u r ni
ng
of f
o r e st
s);
b
urnin
g
of
c o al
(
f
o re
l
e ct
ric
it y p
r od
u ct io n a s
w
ell
a sf
o r c o ok
i
ng
st
o v e si
nd
e v el
op i
ng
c o u nt
rie s
);
b
u r nin
g
of f
o s si
l f
u el
s,e s
p
e cia
ll
y
d
i
e s el
f
u el
,i
ni
nt
e r n al
com
b
u st io
n eng i
ne s;
and b
ur nin
g
of
ot
h
e rf
u el
s s u ch
a sw
o od
o rd
u ng
f
o rh
o u s eh
old h
e at i
ng
, of
t
e ni
nd
e v el
op
in
g
c o u nt
ri
e s a sw
ell
.T h
o ug h
e x a ct
am
o u nt
s a r eu n c e r
t
ain
,w
o rl d
w i
d
e em
i
s si
o n s of
B C
are e st i
m
at
ed
t
ob
e ap p
roxi
m
at
el
y
8
,0 0 0 G
g/
y
e a r(
B
o nd
et
al
.2
0 0
4
)
I
nt
h
eU
nit
ed S
t
at
e s,t
r a n sp
o rt
at i
o nis
b y f
a rt
h
ed
om
i
n a nt
c o nt
ri
b
ut
o r,w it
h
ap p
r o xi
m
at
el
y
2 0 0 G g
/
y
e a r em it t
ed
(
S
t
r e et
s et
al
2
0 0
4
)
,in
l
a rg
ep
a rt
b
y
em i
s sio n s
f
r om
ol d
e rd
i
e s el
t
r u ck
s.N
o r
th A m
e r
i
c a
C
e n
t
r a
l
/
S
A m
e r
E
u r o
p
e
F
o r
m
e r
U
S S
R
M i d d
le
E
a s
t
P
a c
i fi
c
A f
r
i
c a
C
h i
n a
I
r x
Ji
a
O
t
he r
A
s
i
a
T
o
t
a
l
I
]
I
B l
a c
k
c a r
b
o n
■
P
o
w
e r
■
I
n
d
u s
t
r
y
■
T
r a n s
p
o
rt
:
R
o a
d
D T
r a n s
p
o
rt
:
N
o n
-r o a
d
■
R
e s
i d
e n
ti
a
l
:
O
th
e r
D R
e s
i d
e n
ti
a
l
:
C
o a
l
D R
e s
i
d
e n
ti
a
l
:
B i
o
f
u e
l
[ F
r a c
ti
o n
"
c o n
t
a
i
n e
d
"%
o
f g l
o
b
a
l
"c o n
t
a
i
n e
d
"0
%
2 5
%
5 0
%
7 5
%
1 0 0
%
F i gu r e 1; Co ntri
bu
t io n s tob l
a cic a n
d
o rga nic c a rb
o n em
is sio n s,b
y s e cto r. Gr ayba r s
ind
ic atef
r a ct io n of
em
is sio n sf
r om
"c o ntain e
d
"c o
m b
u st io n(
i
.e.T h
e o th
e r s o u r c e s of U S
em
i
s si
o n s -i
nd
u st
ri
al
, r e si
d
e nti
al
, a nd
b
i
om
a s sb
u r ni
ng
- e ac
h
ar ee s
t i
m
at
ed
t
o c o nt
ri
b
ut
el
e s st
h
a n8 0 G g
/
y
e a r(
S t
r e et
s et
al
2 0 0 4
)
B y
w
ay
of w
o rld w
i
d
ep
e r sp
e ct i
ve.E
a st A
si
a c o nt
ri
b
ut
e s n e a rl
y 8 5 0
G
g
/
y
e a rf
r om
r e si d
e nt i
al
s o u r c e s a nd m
o r et
h
a n5 0
0
G
g
/
y
e a rf
r om
i
nd
u st
ri
al
s o u r c e s.S
o ut
h
A
m
e ri
c a c o nt
ri
b
ut
e s ap
p
r o xi m
at
el
y
8 0 0
G
g
/
y
e a rf
r om
b
i
om
a s sb
u r ni
ng
,a n
d
A
f
ri
c a c o nt
ri
b
ut
e s ove r1
,4
0 0 G
g
/
y
e a rf
r om b
i
om
a s sb
u r ni
ng
(
S t
r e et
s et
al
2 0 0 4
)
It
sh
o uld b
e n ot
ed
t
h
at t
h
e r ei
s sig
ni
f
i
c a nt
u n c e rt
ai
nt y i
nt
h
e s e n um
b
e r sD
e sp it
et
h
e s e o rd
e r of
m
ag
nit
ud
ed
i
f f
e r e n c e s,t
h
eU S
. c o nt
ri
b
ut i
ont
oB C
em
i
s si
on si
s n ot i
n sig
ni
f
i
c ant
, a nd
s ub
st
a nt i
al
op p
o rt
u nit y
f
o r red
u ct i
on e xi
st
sC l i
m
at
eE
ff
e ct
s of
P
a rt i
c ul
at
eM
at t
e r a nd
B
l
a ck
C
a rb
o nA
l
t
h
o ug
h
t
h
ey w
ere n ot i
n v e st ig
at
ed
a sp
a rt
of
t
h
i
sp
r oj
e ct
,B C
al
s oh
a s cl
i
m
at
e ef f
e ct
sd
u et
oit
s c o nt
ri
b
ut i
o nt
o r ad
i
at i
v ef
o r ci
ng
.It
si
n v ol
v em
ent i
nw
a rm
i
ng i
s not i
nc on s eq
u ent i
al
, an
d
re c ent
st
ud
i
e s c o n cl
ud
et
h
at w
a rm
i
ng i
n re c ent
d
e c ad
e sh
a sb
e enp
ri
m
ari
l
y
a re s ul
t
n ot
of
C O
2,b
ut
of
ot
h
erg
r e e nh
o u s eg
a s e s a nd
B C
(
H
a n s e n et
al
2 0
0 0
)
B
l
a ck
c a rb
o n's ef f
e ct
si
n cl
ud
ed
i
r e ct w
a rm i
ng
of
s u r r o u n
d i
ng
ai
rd
u et
o ab
s o rp
t i
o n of
s u nl
i
g h
t
, a sw
ell
a sp
ot
e nt i
al w
a rm i
ng
of
t
h
e s u rf
a c e up
o nw
h
i
ch
it
d
ep
o sit
sF
o r e x am
p
l
e,it
h
a sb
e e n e st i m
at
ed
t
h
at
c u rre nt
ly
, s o ot
's e
f f
e ct
o n s n ow
al b
ed
ol
e vel
sm
ay
c o nt
ri
b
ut
e0 2
°C t
o eq
ui
l
i
b
ri
um g l
ob
al w
arm
i
ng
(
H
a n s e n a nd
N
az a r e nk
o2 0 0 4
)
T
h
e exa ct
w
a rm
i
ng
ef f
e ct
i
s af
u nct i
on of
a num b
e r of
f
a ct
o r s,i
ncl
ud
i
ng
b
ut
not
l
i m it
ed
t
og
e og
rap
h
i
c al
l
o c at i
o n a nd
s e a s o n, al b
ed
o of
t
h
e s u rf
a c e u nd
e r n e at
h
t
h
e ai
rb
or nep
a rt i
cl
e s, a nd
al
t it
ud
e of
t
h
ep
art i
cl
e s, e
g
,b
el
ow
v sb
en e at
h
cl
o ud
s(
J
a c ob
s on2 0 0 2
)
.T
h
e r e a r e cl
e a r cl
im
at
e c o-
b
e n ef
it
st
oB C
r e
d
uct i
o n si
n c e a c c ord
i
ng t
ot
h
eIP C C
(
2 0 0 7
)
,t
h
e rad
i
at i
vef
o r ci
ng
of
B C i
s2 8 p
e r c e nt
of
t
h
at
of
C O
2 si
n c e1 7 5 0
S i
n c eO C
a nd
ot
h
e rp
art i
cul
at
e s of
t
e n c o-em it t
ed
w it
h
B C g
ene r all
y
h
a v et
h
e op p
o sit
e ef f
e ct
(
scat t
e ri
ng
of
l ig h t
and
red
u ct i
o n of
rad
i
at i
v ef
o r ci
ng
)
,
t
h
e n et
ef f
e ct
of
em
i
s si
on red
u ct i
o n s o n cl
i m
at
eb
e c om
e s c om p
l
i
c at
ed
and
i
st
h
e s ub
j
e ct
of
o ng
oi
ng
st
ud
y
It i
s cl
e a r,h
ow
e v e r,t
h
at
si
n c eB C
i
s a sh
o rt
-l
i
v ed f
o rci
ng
ag
e nt
, a r ed
u ct i
o n of
it
s em i
s si
o n sw
o uld h
a v e c o-
b
e n ef
it
sf
o r sl
ow i
ng t
h
er a
t
e of
cl
im
at
e ch
a ng
e, a nd
t
h
at
am
o ng
a ct
i
o n st
o r ed
u c eP
M
2 5(
ai
rb
o r n ep
a rt i
c ul
at
em
at t
e rw it
h
ad
i
am
et
e rl
e s st
h
a n2
.5
m
i
c r om
et
e r s;
b l
a ck
c a rb
o nm
ay
al
s ob
e em
it t
ed
i
nl
a rg
e rp
a rt i
cl
e si
z e s)
,t
h
o s et h
at
red
u c eB C
sig
ni
f
i
c a nt ly w
o ul
d b
e st
sl
ow
cl
i
m
at
e ch
a ng
eL
o ok
ed
at
anot
h
e rw
ay
, r ed
u ci
ng
all
p
a rt i
c ul
at
em
at t
e r em
i
s si
o n sf
r om
m
aj
o r s o u r c e s of
B C w i
l l b
eh
i g
h l
y
l
i
k
el
y t
o red
u c ew
a rm i
ng
(
B
o nd
2 0 0 7
)
,w
h
e r e a s ot
h
e r a ct i
o n st
o r ed
u c eP
M
2 5t
oi
m
p
r o v e ai
rq
u al
it y w
o ul d l
i
k
el
y
e x a c e rb
at
ew
arm
i
ng
A
d
i
f f
i
c ul
t y i
nt
h
e st
ud
y
of
p
a rt i
c ul
at
em
at t
erp
rod
u c ed
a s ab
y p
rod
u ct
of
c om b
u st i
o ni
st
h
at
t
h
ep
r od
u ct i
o n of
B C i
s cl
o s el
y i
nt
e rt w i
ned
w it
h
t
h
ep
rod
u ct i
o n of
O C
.T
h
e s et w
o c om p
o n e nt
s, al
o ng
w it
h
ot
h
e r el
em
e nt
st
h
at
b
e c om
ei
nt
ert
w
i
ned w
it
h
t
h
em
d
uri
ng
c om
b
u st i
o n, c o
m
p
ri
s ew
h
at
i
s c om
m
o nly k
n ow
n a s "s o ot
."
S
i
n c et
h
e s e c om p
o n e nt
sh
a v e op p
o si
ng
ef f
e ct
s o n cl
im
at
e(
org
ani
cc ar
b
on c a u s e s c o ol
i
ng
)
,f
et t
eri
ng
o ut
t
h
e exa ct
c om p
o sit i
o n of
s o ot
p
rod
u c ed
b
y
d
i
f f
erent
c om b
u st i
o np
ro c e s s e si
s a s ub
j
e ct
of
o ng
oi
ng
st
ud
y
.It i
sw
ell
e st
ab l
i
sh
ed
t
h
at t
ran sp
ort
at i
on s o urc e s em
it B C i
nl
a rg
e rp
rop
ort i
o nt
h
a nO
C
, and
i
nt
erm
s of d
i
e s el
i
np
a rt i
c ul
ar,E P A
e st i
m
at
e st
h
at B C
m
ak
e s up
ap p
ro xi m
at
el
y 6 0
%
of
P
M
2 5(
D
eA
ng
el
o2 0 0 5
)
F i
n al l
y
, re c ent U S
ch
ang
e st
ol
ow
e r -s ulf
u rd
i
e s el f
u el f
o rm
ul
at i
onsh
aved
ra st i
c all
y
red
u c ed
S O
2(
a nd h
e n c e, s ulf
at
e)
em i
s si
on sf
rom
d
i
e s el
en
g i
n e s;
a s s ulf
ur c a u s e s c o ol
i
ng
(
I P C C
,2 0 0 7
)
,t
h
i
s ch
a ng
eh
a s al
s oh
ad
a neg
at i
ve ef f
e ct
o n cl
i
m
at
e.H
e al
t
h E
ff
e ct
s of
P
a rt
i
c ul
at
eM
at t
e r a nd B l
a ck C
a rb
o nI
nt
e rm
s of
p
ub l
i
ch
e al
t
h
,it
h
a sb
e e nk
n ow
nf
o r s om
et i
m
et
h
at
all
t y p
e s of
P
M
p
rod
u c ed
f
r om
a ny
s o u r c e a r e a c o n c e r n, e s
p
e ci
al l
y
P
M
2 5(
E P A
,1 9 9 6
)
, a nd
t
h
e r ei
s c o nt
i
n ui
ng
ef f
o rt
b
ei
ng
T
h
e r eis
g
r e at
n e ed
t
oi
d
ent i
f
y
c o st
-e
f f
e ct
i
v ew
ay
st
o r ed
u c eP
M
em
is s
io n s
t
ob
e n ef
it
p
ub li
ch
e ai
t
i
iA i
rb
o r n eP
M
is a
m
aj
o r c a u s e of
s e ri
o u sil l
n e s s a nd h
e al
t
h
p
r ob l
em
sw
o rl d
w i
d
e, am
o u nt
i
ng
a n n u all
y t
o a n e st im at
ed 8 0 0
,0
0 0
e x c e s sd
e at
h
s, o r6
4
m
i
ll
io n
d
is a
b i li
t
y
-a
d
j
u st
ed lif
ey
e a r s(
C
oh
e n et
al
.2 0 0 4
,2 0 0 5
)
M
o st B C p
art i
cl
e sm
e a s u r el
e s st
h
a n1
m
ic r o
m
et
e rin
d
ia
m
et
er(
H it
z enb
e rg
e r a nd
T
oh
no2 0 0 1
)
and
s of
all i
nt
ot
h
e c at
eg
o ry
of f
i
nep
art ic u
la
t
em
at t
erF i
nep
art ic u
l
at
em
at t
e ris
l
i
nk
ed
t
oh
um
a nh
e al
t
h
ef f
e ct
sl
i
k
e r e sp i
r at
o ry
a nd
c a rd
i
o v a s c ul
a rp
r ob l
em
s, a nd
i
nm
a ny
c a s e sp
r em
at
u r em
o rta
l
it y
(
C
oh
e n et
al
2 0 0 4
,2 0 0 5
)
,in
ad d
it i
o nt
o ot
h
e r n eg
at i
v e ef f
e ct
s s uch
a si
m
p
ai
red
ch i
l d
c og
nit iv
ed
evelo
p m
ent
W
it
h
t
h
ep
r e c ed
i
ng i
nm i
nd,
t h
eE P A i
n2 0 0 6 t ig h t
e n ed
P
M
2 5 sta nd
a rd
sto
t
h
e c u r r e nt 2 4
-h
o u r a v e r ag
e of 3 5
um
/
m
^ a nd y
e a rly
a v e r ag
e of
1
5
um
/
m
^(
E P A
,2
0 0 6
)
.R
e s e a r ch i
s o ng
oi
ng i
nt
h
i
s a r e a, a nd
it i
sp
o s si
b l
et
h
at B C
m
ay p
r o v et
ob
em
o r e o rl
e s sd
et
rim
ent
al
to
h
e al
t
h
t
h
a n ot
h
e r c om p
o n e nt
s of
P
M
(
s e e, eg
,C
o ok
e et
al
2
0 0
7
,B
r u n ek
r e ef
et
al 2 0
0
9
)
.C
u r r e nt
T
r e nd
si
nP
M
E
m
i
s si
o nR
eg
ul
at
i
o n sW
h
i
l
e n o c u r r e nt
U S
l
eg i
sl
at i
onis
ai m
ed
at
c o nt
r ol
of
B C
d
i
r e ct
l
y
,t
h
e s ep
o s si
b l
eb l
a ck
c a r
b
o n-s
p
e ci
f
i
ch
e al
t
h
ef f
e ct
s, al
o ng w it
h
t
h
e af
o r em
e nt io
n ed
cl
i
m
at
e ef f
e ct
s,b
eg t h
eq
u e st io
n of
w
h
et
h
e rB C
m
ay
b
e si
ng
l
ed
o ut
f
o r r eg
ul
at io n
i
nd
ep
e nd
e nt
l
y
of
ot
h
e r c om p
o n e nt
s of f
in e
p
a rt i
c ul
at
em
at t
e rb
y
U S
o rin
t
e r n at io n a
l b
od
ie s
in
c om
i
ng y
e arsF
or e x am
p
l
e,in
t
h
eU
S
,Se n a
t
eIn
t
e ri
o rA p p
rop
ria
t i
o n sB i
ll
H R
2
9
9 6
(
w h
ic
h w
a s ena ct
ed
and b
e c am
eP
ub l
ic
La
w
1 1 1
-8 8
in
l
at
e2 0 0 9
)
d
i
r e ct
ed
t
h
eE P A
to
st
ud
y
h
e al
t
h
a nd
cl
i
m
at
e ef f
e ct
s of
B C
and
p
o s si
b
i
l
it ie s
f
o rm
it ig
at i
onR
e c e nt
st
ud
ie s
ag
r e et
h
at
t
h
e c o-b
e n ef
it
s of
re
d
u ci
ng B C
em
i
s si
o n sf
o rh
e al
t
h
a nd
cl
i m
at
em
ak
eb l
a ck
c arb
on a "w i
n -w i
n"
t
arg
et
f
or sim
ult
ane o u si m p
rovem
ents
in
b
ot h
arena s(
Ja c o
b
s on2 0 0 2 ; Ry p
d
al
et
al
2 0 0 5 ; B
o nd 2 0 0
7
)
.P
M
i
nt
h
eM
ob
i
l
eS
o u r c eS
e ct
o rM
ob i l
eS
o u r c eS
e ct
o rC
o nt
ri b
ut
i
o nt
oE
m
i
s si
o n sI
n v e nt
o ry
A
sd
is c u s s e
d
ab
o v e,t
h
et
r a n sp
o rt
at i
o n s e ct
o ris r e s
p
o n si
b l
ef
o r ab
it
l
e s st
h
a nt w
o-
t
h
i
rd
s of
U S
.B C
em i
s sio n s
,t
h
em
aj
o rit y
of w h
ic
h
c om
ef
r om
d
ie s e
l
-p
ow
e r ed
v eh
ic
l
e s(
Bo n
d
et
al
2
0 0
4
)
In
ad d
it io n
,d
u et
oit
sh
i
g h
r at io
of
B C t
o c o-e
m
it t
ed
sp
e cie s
,t
r a n sp
o rt
at io n
is r e s
p
o n si
b l
ef
o r n e a rl
y
9
0
p
e r c e nt
of
al
l
rad
i
at iv
ef
o r ci
ng
d
u et
oB C
(
W
o od
r ow
W
i
l
s o nS
ch
o ol
2 0 0 9
)
It i
sf
o rt
h
e s e r e a s o n st
h
at
t
r a n sp
o rt
at io n
is o
f p
a rt ic u
l
a ri
nt
e r e st
f
o r a n al
y
sis o
f
P
M
em i
s sio n r e
d
u ct i
o n sN
o nro ad
d
ie s e
l
v eh
ic
l
e s(
s u ch
a s c o n st
r u ct io n
eq
uip
m
e nt
)
a r e c o n si
d
e r ed
p
a rt
of
t
h
e"
N
a tio n
al M
ob il
eS
o u r c eE C E m i
s sio n s
.2 0 0 5
(
3 3 0
.9 3 0 T
o n s)
2 2%
11%
T )^
4 5 3%
33 1 %
I
-0
4%
H
On r o ad d ie s elO
Br akews a rI
Com me r cial Ma rin e (C 1 S C 2)I
Lo c omot iv eH
Onro ad ga s ol in eI
No nro ad d ie s elB
Com me r cial Ma rin e (C 3)B
A ir c r aftB
Ti r eD
No n r o ad ga s ol in eFigu r e 2: U.S B Ce
m
is sio n sf
r om
tr a n spo rt s e cto r. Ba s ed
o nd
r af
t E P A e sti m
ate sde r
i
v ed
f
r om
2 0 0 5 N E I.(
De a ngelo
2 0 1 0)
.It
sho u
ld b
e n ot
ed
t
ha
t
o n a v e r ag
e,g
a s ol
i
ne vehi
cle s e
m
it
o nl
y
a sm
al l f
r a ct i
o n of
t
he
P
M
e
m
it t
ed b
y
d
ie s e
l
veh
ic
le s
,w it
h
t
he
em i
s si
o nf
a ct
o r of
g
a s ol i
n e v eh
ic
le s
b
uilt
aft
er1 9 8 4
b
ei
ng
a
p p
r o xim
at
el
y
0
1
5
g
/
k
g
of
p
a rt i
c ul
at
em
at t
ert
of
u el
a nd
t
h
at
f
o rd
i
e s el
v eh
ic
l
e sb
ein
g
a n ap p
ro xim
at
ew
eig
h
t
ed
averag
e of
1 5 g
/
k
g
of f
u el
; t
h
e s ef
ig
u r e s ap p
l
y t
ot
h
eU S
a sw
el l
ast
o ot
h
er c o u nt
rie s
w it
h
st
ri
ng
e nt
m
ot
o r veh
i
cle
em
is s
io
ns sta n
d
a rd
s(
B
o nd
et
al
2
00 4
)
S im
il
arl
y
, ane s
t im
at
ed
8 6
%
of
P
M
em
is s
io
n sf
rom d
ie s e
l
eng i
ne s a r el
e s st
h
a n1
m
ic r o
m
ete r
i
n si
ze a nd
t w
o-t
h
i
rd
s of
t
h
e s ep
a rt i
cle s a
reb l
a ck
c a rbo
n(
B
ond
et
al
2 0 0 4
)
M
ob i l
eS
o u r c eS
e ct
o rU
.S
.R
eg
ul
at
o ry L
a nd
s c ap
eT
r a n sp
o rt
at
i
o ni
s al
s o a s e ct
o ri
nw
h i
ch
t
h
e r eh
a sb
e e n r e c e nt
r eg
ul
ato r
y
a ct
i
vit
y
r el
at
ed
t
oPM
i
nt
he
U
.S
.,i
n cl
ud
in
g E P A
'
s s o-c a
l le
d
2 0
0
7 H
e a vy
-D
u
t y H i g
h w
ay E
ng i
neR
ul
eT
h
is r u
l
et
o ok
ef fe c
t
o n2 0 0 7
m
od
el
y
e arh
e a vy
-d
ut y t
r u ck
s a nd
a ch
i
e v e s vehic
le
r ed
u ct io
n s of
t
ot
al
P
M
em
i
s si
ons of
ap p
roxim
at
el
y 9 0 p
erc ent
.C
rit ic a
l f
o rt
h
ep
u rp
o s e s of
o u r st
ud
y i
st
h
at
si m il
a r r ul
e sw
ent in
t
o ef f
e ct
d
u rin
g t
h
ef
ir s
t
d
e c ad
e of
t
h
e2
1
st
c e nt
u ry
r el
at
i
ng
t
o n o n-r o a
d
e ng i
n e s s u ch
a s c o n st
r u ct io n
eq
ui p
m
e nt
, a sw
ell
a slo c o
m
ot i
v e a nd m
a ri
ned
i
e s el
e ng i
n e s(
t
h
eC
le a n
A i
rN
o n-r o a
d
D ie s e
l
R
ul
e ,2 0 0 4
)
W
h
il
et
h
e s e r eg
ula
t i
o n s af f
e ct
all
n ew
eq
uip
m
ent
s ol d
,t
he
y
do
n ot
ad d
re s s e xis
t in
g
d
ie s e
l
e n
g i
n e si
n u s ein
t
h
ef l
e et
Se e
A p p
e nd
ix
B
f
o rd
et
ai
l
s o n r eg
ul
at i
o n s af f
e ct i
ng
n ew
d
ie s e
l
eq
ui p
m
e nt
a nd h
ow t
he
y
h
a v e ch
a ng
ed
o v e rt
h
ey
e a r s.T h
o ug
h f
al li
ng
sh
o rt
of
a ct
u al
r eg
ula
t
i
o n,t
he r e
h
a v ebe e n
at t
em p
t
st
o ad d
r e s s em
i
s sio n s
f
r om
in
-u s ed ie s e
l
e ng i
n e sF
o r e x am p
le
,E P A
's
N
at io n a
l C le a n
Di
e s el
P
r og
r am
(
N C D P
)
,p
a rt
of
t
he
E
n erg y P
ol
ic
y A
ct
of
2 0 0 5
,is
m
e ant t
o ad d
r e s st h
em
or et
ha
n2 0 m il lio
nd
ie s
el
e ng i
n e sin
op
erat io
nin
t h
eU
.S
.
t
h
at w
erem
an uf
act
u r ed
p
rio r
t
o2 0 0 7
a nd
,t h
eref
ore, n ot
req
uir
ed
t
om
e et E PA
's n e
w
cle a n
d
i
e s el
st
a nd
a rd
sB y
p
r o vi
d
in
g f
u nd
i
ng
t
o eli
g
i
b le
ap p l i
c a nt
s,t
h i
s v ol
u nt
a ry p
r og
r am
w
a sd
e si g
n ed
t
o a c c ele r a
t
e em is s
io n s r e
d
u ct
io n s
fr o
m
old
e rd
i
e s el
e ng
i
n e sb
y p
r om
ot i
ng
u s e of
cle a n e r
f
u el
s, eng i
n e r et
r of
it
a nd
r ep
ai
r, a nd
ot
h
e r s o-c a