Extremely Interested Very Interested Somewhat Interested Not Very Interested

(1)

The

Grani

t

e

St

at

e

Pol

l

November4,2018

NH GOVERNOR RACE TOO CLOSE TO CALL;DEMOCRATS LEAD REPUBLICANS IN RACES FOR U.S.CONGRESS AND STATE LEGISLATURE

DURHAM,NH – The race forNH Governorbetween GovernorChris Sununu and Democrac challengerMolly Kelly is too close to call,as Kelly's supporthas increased overthe pastfew months.However,mostlikely voters believe thatSununu willwin this contest.Chris Pappas leads his Republican opponent,Eddie Edwards,in NH's 1stCongressionalDistrict,while Congresswoman Ann Kustercomfortably leads Republican Steve Negron in the 2nd District.The Democrac Party holds slightadvantages overRepublicans in generic ballong for the New Hampshire House,Senate,and Execuve Council.Interestin the elecon is higherthan in 2014 or2010.

"This elecon looks to be a good yearforDemocrats,in keeping with the historicaltrend where the President's party loses ground in the administraon's ﬁrstmidterm elecon," said Survey CenterDirectorAndrew Smith."GovernorSununu's popularity may allow him to buck this trend and secure reelecon,butwe probably won'tknow unlthe lastballots are counted as the race forGovernorlooks very close."

These ﬁndings are based on the latestGranite State Poll*,conducted by the University ofNew Hampshire Survey Center.Six hundred thirty (630)randomly selected New Hampshire likely voters were interviewed in English by landline and cellulartelephone between November1 and November4,2018.The margin ofsampling errorforthe survey is +/-3.9 percent.Included were three hundred nine (309)likely voters in the FirstCongressionalDistrict(margin ofsampling error+/-5.6%)and three hundred twenty-one (321)likely voters in the Second CongressionalDistrict(margin ofsampling error+/-5.5%).

VoterEngagement

With the midterm elecon only days away,interestamong likely voters is very high.More than half(53%)ofNew Hampshire likely voters say thatthey are extremely interested in the elecon,one-third (34%)say they are very interested,11% are somewhatinterested,and only 1% say they are notvery interested.The percentage oflikely voters who say they are extremely interested (53%)is higherthan directly before the 2014 elecon (42%)and slightly higherthan before the 2010 midterms (48%).Democrats (56%)are slightly more likely than Republicans (51%)and Independents (50%)to say they are extremely interested.

Women with a college degree,those who have completed postgraduate work,and women aged 35 to 49 are more likely than others to say they are extremely interested in the elecon.North Country residents and those aged 18 to 34 are less likely than others to say they are extremely interested.

*We ask thatthis copyrighted informaon be referred to as the Granite State Poll,conducted by the University ofNew Hampshire Survey Center.

Interestin 2018 Elecon Sean P.McKinley,M.A.

Zachary S.Azem,M.A. Andrew E.Smith,Ph.D.

[email protected] 603-862-2226 cola.unh.edu/survey-center By:

Democrat Independent Republican 0%

20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

56%

50% 51%

Extremely Interested -by Party ID

1% 11%

34%

53%

(2)

OVERALL

Democrat

Independent

Republican

12% 10%

15%

12% 32%

32%

36%

29% 53%

60%

37%

52%

6%

7% 6% Frequency Discussing Elecon With Friends and Family

Often Sometimes Rarely Never

More than halfoflikely voters in New Hampshire (53%)say they o en discuss the elecon with theirfriends and family,32% somemes discuss it,10% do so rarely,and 6% say they neverdo.Democrats (60%)are somewhatmore likely than Republicans (52%)and farmore likely than Independents (37%)to say they o en discuss the elecon with theirfriends and family.

Women who have a college degree are more likely than others to say they o en discuss the elecon while men aged 18 to 34 are less likely to say they o en discuss it.

2018 NH GubernatorialElecon

Apr 2018 May 2018 Jun 2018 Jul2018 Aug 2018 Sep 2018 Oct 2018 Nov 2018 Prediction 0%

10% 20% 30% 40%

50% 49%

46%

39%

32%

24%

16%

46% 49%

6%

1% 2%

48%

2% 20%

6%

0% 5%

0% 50%

4%

4% 51%

0% 2018 NH Governor-Sununu vs.Kelly vs.Jarvis

GovernorChris Sununu held a strong lead overhis Democrac opponentMolly Kelly earlierin the yearbutKelly's supporthas steadily increased and the race is now too close to call.Ifthe 2018 NH gubernatorialelecon were held today,46% oflikely voters say they would vote forSununu,46% would vote forKelly,2% would vote forLibertarian Jille a Jarvis,less than 1% would vote foranother candidate,and 6% are undecided.Kelly leads Sununu by 78% among Democrats while Sununu leads Kelly by 22% among Independents and 89% among Republicans.

The race between Sununu and Kelly closely resembles the 2014 gubernatorialelecon between Maggie Hassan and herRepublican challengerWaltHavenstein,where Hassan's lead declined over me butshe sllsecured anotherterm in a close elecon.

When undecided voters are allocated to the candidate they are mostlikely to support,the ﬁnalUNH predicon forthe 2018 NH gubernatorialelecon is 49% forSununu,49% forKelly,and 2% forJarvis.

Chris Sununu Molly Kelly Jilletta Jarvis Undecided Other

(3)

OVERALL

Democrat

Independent

Republican

14%

20%

10% 15%

28% 70%

52%

79%

90% 8%

3% 8% Who WillWin GubernatorialElecon?

Chris Sununu Molly Kelly Jilletta Jarvis Undecided

However,when asked which candidate they think willwin the 2018 gubernatorialelecon,seven in ten (70%)likely voters think Sununu willbe reelected,15% think Kelly willwin,1% think Jarvis willwin,and 14% are unsure.Majories ofDemocrats (52%),Independents (79%),and Republicans (90%)allpredictthatSununu willwin the race.Historically,this measure ofelecon races has been shown to be a more accurate predictorofthe winner,butnotthe margin ofvictory.

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Chris Sununu

Molly Kelly

Jilleta Jarvis

16%

26% 82%

76%

67%

9%

7% 9%

8% Firmness ofChoice forNH Governor-Nov 2018 -By Preferred Candidate

Deﬁnitely Decided Leaning Towards Someone StillTrying To Decide

Three-quarters oflikely voters (74%)in New Hampshire say they have deﬁnitely decided on theirchoice forthe 2018 gubernatorial elecon,9% are leaning toward someone,and 17% are slltrying to decide.The percentage oflikely voters who say they have deﬁnitely decided (74%)has increased markedly overthe pastthree months.

February 2018 April2018 August 2018 October 2018 November 2018 0%

20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

73% 74%

12%

51%

17% 10%

9% 80%

33% 81%

11%

16%

9% 9%

15%

Firmness ofChoice forNH Governor-OverTime

(4)

2018 1stCongressionalDistrictElecon

Oct 2018 Nov 2018 Prediction

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

4% 3% 40% 53%

12%

54%

46%

3% 0% 0%

2%

43%

37%

4%

2018 NH 1stCongressionalDistrict-Pappas vs.Edwards vs.Belfor

In the race to replace rering Democrac Congresswoman CarolShea-Porterin New Hampshire's FirstCongressionalDistrict,Execuve councilorChris Pappas,the Democrac nominee,leads formerNH LiquorEnforcementChiefEddie Edwards,the Republican nominee.If the elecon were held today,53% oflikely voters say they would vote forPappas,40% would vote forEdwards,3% would vote for Libertarian Dan Belfor,and 4% are undecided.

Pappas leads Edwards by 91% among Democrats while Edwards leads Pappas by 17% among Independents and 74% among Republicans.

When undecided voters are allocated to the candidate they are mostlikely to support,the ﬁnalUNH predicon forthe 2018 NH First CongressionalDistrictelecon is 54% forPappas,43% forEdwards,and 3% forBelfor.

Chris Pappas Eddie Edwards Dan Belforti Other Undecided November 2018

OVERALL Democrat Independent Republican

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

53%

40%

3% 4% 94%

3%

0% 3% 38%

55%

3% 4%

82%

8% _6%

5% 2018 NH 1stCongressionalDistrict-Pappas vs.Edwards vs.Belfor -Nov 2018

(5)

2018 2nd CongressionalDistrictElecon

Oct 2018 Nov 2018 Prediction

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

56%

37%

7% 5%

1% 53%

38%

60%

2% 35%

1% 0%

2018 NH 2nd CongressionalDistrict-Kustervs.Negron vs.O'Donnell

Democrac Congresswoman Ann Kusterholds a solid lead overherRepublican opponent,State Representave Steve Negron,in the elecon forCongress from New Hampshire's 2nd CongressionalDistrict.Ifthe elecon were held today,56% oflikely voters say they would vote forKuster,35% would vote forNegron,2% would vote forLibertarian Jusn O'Donnell,1% would vote foranother candidate,and 7% are undecided.

Kusterleads Negron by 96% among Democrats and 12% among Independents while Negron leads Kusterby 76% among Republicans.

When undecided voters are allocated to the candidate they are mostlikely to support,the ﬁnalUNH predicon forthe 2018 NH Second CongressionalDistrictelecon is 60% forKuster,37% forNegron,and 2% forO'Donnell.

Annie Kuster Steve Negron Justin O'Donnell Other Undecided November 2018

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

56%

35%

2% _1% 7%

96%

0% 1% 2% _1% 42%

29%

22%

7%

84%

8%

1% 7% 2018 NH 2nd CongressionalDistrict-Kustervs.Negron vs.O'Donnell-Nov 2018

(6)

November 2018

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

50%

40%

2% _1% 7%

93%

2% _1% 4% 34%

32%

20%

6% 7%

92%

2% _1% 4%

NH House ofRepresentaves Generic Ballot-By Party ID NH House ofRepresentaves Elecon

Democrats hold an advantage overRepublicans in the elecons forthe NH House ofRepresentaves.Half(50%)oflikely voters say they plan to vote forDemocrac candidates,40% say they willvote forRepublican candidates,2% willvote forsome Democrats and some Republicans,while 8% say they willvote foranothercandidate orare undecided.SupportforDemocrac candidates (50%)has slightly increased since October(45%).

Ninety-three percentofDemocrats plan to vote forDemocrac candidates,while 92% ofRepublicans plan to vote forRepublican candidates.Independents are divided:34% plan to vote forDemocrats,32% plan to vote forRepublicans,and 20% are undecided.

Democrats are ata signiﬁcantdisadvantage in winning the majority ofseats in the State House because ofredistricng aerthe 2010 census.Democrats have to win more than 53% ofthe popularvote in orderto win a majority ofHouse seats.

Based on evaluaons ofpast"generic ballot" polling in New Hampshire and actualelecon results,these ﬁndings translate into 218 seats forDemocrats and 182 seats forRepublicans.

Democrat Republican

Some Democrat,Some Republican Other

Undecided

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

October 2018

November 2018

43%

40% 45%

50%

7%

7% NH House ofRepresentaves Generic Ballot

Democrat Republican

Some Democrat,Some Republican Other

(7)

November 2018

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

51%

39%

2% 8%

95%

2% _0% 4%

34% _33%

25%

7%

92%

2% _1% 5%

NH Senate Generic Ballot-By Party ID NH Senate Elecon

Democrats also hold an advantage overRepublicans in the elecons forthe NH Senate.Fiy-one percentoflikely voters say they plan to vote forthe Democrac candidate,39% say they willvote forthe Republican candidate,and 9% say they willvote foranother candidate orare undecided.SupportforDemocrac candidates (51%)has increased slightly since October(45%).

Ninety-ﬁve percentofDemocrats plan to vote forthe Democrac candidate,while 92% ofRepublicans plan to vote forthe Republican candidate.Independents are divided:34% plan to vote fora Democrat,33% plan to vote fora Republican,and 25% are undecided.

Based on evaluaons ofpast"generic ballot" polling in New Hampshire and actualelecon results,these ﬁndings translate into 14 seats forDemocrats and 10 seats forRepublicans.

Democrat Republican Other Undecided

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

October 2018

November 2018

45%

39% 45%

51%

8%

8% NH Senate Generic Ballot

(8)

NH Execuve CouncilElecon

Democrats lead Republicans statewide in the elecons forthe NH Execuve Council.Overall,49% oflikely voters say they willvote for the Democrac candidate,39% say they willvote forthe Republican candidate,and 12% say they willvote foranothercandidate orare undecided.SupportforDemocrac candidates (49%)has increased slightly since October(44%).

Democrats hold the advantage in the second and fourth Execuve CouncilDistricts,while the contests in the ﬁrst,third,and ﬁ h Districts are too close to call.

November 2018

OVERALL 1st District 2nd District 3rd District 4th District 5th District

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

49%

39%

10%

2%

42% 40%

14%

4%

55%

33%

12%

1%

43% 47%

2% 8%

52%

35%

11%

2%

50%

44%

1% 6% NH Execuve CouncilGeneric Ballot-By Exec.CouncilDistrict

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

October 2018

November 2018

10%

10% 44%

39% 44%

49%

NH Execuve CouncilGeneric Ballot-By Exec.CouncilDistrict

(9)

Granite State PollMethodology

These findings are based on the latestGranite State Poll,conducted by the University ofNew Hampshire Survey Center.Six hundred thirty (630)randomly selected New Hampshire likely voters were interviewed in English by landline and cellulartelephone between November1 and November4,2018.The margin ofsampling errorforthe survey is +/-3.9 percent.Included were three hundred nine (309)likely voters in the FirstCongressionalDistrict(margin ofsampling error+/-5.6%)and three hundred twenty-one (321)likely voters in the Second CongressionalDistrict(margin ofsampling error+/-5.5%).These MSE’s have notbeen adjusted fordesign effect. The design effectforthe survey is 1.2%.

The random sample used in the Granite State Pollwas purchased from Scienﬁc Telephone Samples (STS),Rancho Santo Margarita,CA. STS screens each selected telephone numberto eliminate non-working numbers,disconnected numbers,and business numbers to improve the eﬃciency ofthe sample,reducing the amountof me interviewers spend calling non-usable numbers.When a landline numberis reached,the interviewerrandomly selects a memberofthe household by asking to speak with the adultcurrently living in the household who has had the mostrecentbirthday.This selecon process ensures thatevery adult(18 years ofage orolder)in the household has an equalchance ofbeing included in the survey.

The data have been weighted to adjustfornumbers ofadults and telephone lines within households.Addionally,data were weighted by respondentsex,age,educaon,and region ofthe state to targets from the mostrecentAmerican Community Survey (ACS) conducted by the U.S.Census Bureau.In addion to potenalsampling error,allsurveys have otherpotenalsources ofnon-sampling errorincluding queson ordereﬀects,queson wording eﬀects,and non-response.Due to rounding,percentages may notsum to 100%.The numberofrespondents in each demographic below may notequalthe numberreported in cross-tabulaon tables as some respondents choose notto answersome quesons.

Formore informaon aboutthe methodology used in the Granite State Poll,contactDr.Andrew Smith at(603)862-2226 orby emailat [email protected].

Granite State Poll,NovemberElecon 2018 Demographics

N %

Sex of Respondent Female Male

Age of Respondent 18 to 34 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and older

Levelof Education High schoolor less

Technicalschool/Some college College graduate

Postgraduate work

Region of State Central/Lakes Connecticut Valley Manchester Area Mass Border North Country Seacoast

Registered to Vote Reg.Democrat

Registered Undeclared/Not Reg. Reg.Republican

Party ID Democrat Independent Republican

Congressional District

First CongressionalDistrict Second CongressionalDistrict

47% 53% 295

335

22% 31% 25% 22%

135 191 152 138

14% 21% 42% 23%

90 133 260 140

18% 9% 23% 17% 15% 17%

116 57 145 108 93 110

24% 47% 29%

151 295 182

36% 17% 47%

225 106 290

51% 49% 321

(10)

Extremely Interested Very Interested Somewhat Interested Not Very Interested Don't Know/Not Sure

February 2018 April2018 August 2018 October 2018 November 2018

0% 0% 0% 0%

1% 1% 4% 2% 3%

11% 13% 17% 20% 24%

34% 29% 31% 37% 34%

53% 56% 48% 41% 39%

N

629 643 499 548 523 Interestin 2018 GeneralElecon

As you know,the elecon forGovernor,Congress,and state oﬃces is being held on November6th.How interested would you say you are in the NovemberElecon?

Frequency Discussing Elecon

How o en would you say you discuss the elecon with yourfriends and family members?

November 2018 53% 32% 10% 6%

N

630

NH GovernorRace -Chris Sununu vs.Molly Kelly vs.Jille a Jarvis (Candidates Rotated)

Thinking aboutthe elecon forGovernor,willyou vote forChris Sununu,the Republican,and Molly Kelly,the Democrat,Jille a Jarvis, the Libertarian,orwillyou skip this elecon?

(IfUndecided)

Would you say you are leaning towards Chris Sununu,the Republican,Molly Kelly,the Democrat,orJille a Jarvis,the Libertarian?

New Hampshire GovernorFirmness ofChoice

Have you deﬁnitely decided who you willvote forin the New Hampshire Governorelecon in 2018,are you leaning toward someone, orhave you considered some candidates butare slltrying to decide?

Chris Sununu Jilletta Jarvis Molly Kelly Other Undecided April2018

August 2018 October 2018 November 2018 Prediction

6% 6% 16% 20%

0% 0% 1% 5% 4%

49% 46% 39% 32% 24%

2% 2% 4% 2%

49% 46% 50% 48% 51%

N

382 369

Deﬁnitely Decided Leaning Towards Someone StillTrying To Decide February 2018

April2018 August 2018 October 2018

November 2018 17%

33% 73% 80% 81%

9% 16% 15% 11% 9%

74% 51% 12% 9% 10%

N

621 491 389 380 381

Who Do You Think WillWin GubernatorialElecon

Regardless ofwho you are vong for,which candidate do you think is mostlikely to win the governorelecon,Chris Sununu,Molly Kelly,orJille a Jarvis?

Chris Sununu Jilletta Jarvis Molly Kelly Undecided

November 2018 70% 1% 15% 14%

N

(11)

2018 1stDistrictCongressionalElecon (Candidates Rotated)

Next,thinking aboutthe elecon forCongress,willyou vote forEddie Edwards,the Republican,Chris Pappas,the Democrat,Dan Belfor,the Libertarian,orwillyou skip this elecon?

(IfUndecided)

Would you say you are leaning towards Eddie Edwards,the Republican,Chris Pappas,the Democrat,orDan Belfor,the Libertarian?

New Hampshire House ofRepresentaves Generic Ballot(Pares Rotated)

Please think aboutthe Novemberelecon foryourrepresentave to the New Hampshire House ofRepresentaves.Do you plan to vote forthe Republican orDemocrac candidate forthe New Hampshire House ofRepresentaves,ordo you plan to skip the elecon for New Hampshire House ofRepresentaves this me?

(IfUndecided)

Are you leaning toward vong forthe Republican candidate to the New Hampshire House orforthe Democrac candidate?

Chris Pappas Dan Belforti Eddie Edwards Other Undecided October 2018

November 2018 Prediction

4% 12%

0% 0% 2%

43% 40% 37%

3% 3% 4%

54% 53% 46%

N

294 246

2018 2nd DistrictCongressionalElecon (Candidates Rotated)

Next,thinking aboutthe elecon forCongress,willyou vote forSteve Negron,the Republican,Ann Kuster,the Democrat,Jusn O'Donnell,the Libertarian,orwillyou skip this elecon?

(IfUndecided)

Would you say you are leaning towards Steve Negron,the Republican,Ann Kuster,the Democrat,orJusn O'Donnell,the Libertarian?

Annie Kuster Justin O'Donnell Steve Negron Other Undecided October 2018

November 2018 Prediction

7% 5%

0% 1% 1%

37% 35% 38%

2% 2% 3%

60% 56% 53%

N

302 212

N

606 488

Democrat Republican _SomeSome _RepublDemocrat,_i_can Other Undecided

October 2018

November 2018 7%

7% 1%

2% 2%

2% 40%

43% 50%

45%

New Hampshire Senate Generic Ballot(Pares Rotated)

Please think aboutthe Novemberelecon foryourrepresentave to the New Hampshire Senate.Do you plan to vote forthe

Republican orDemocrac candidate forthe New Hampshire Senate,ordo you plan to skip the elecon forNew Hampshire Senate this me?

(IfUndecided)

Are you leaning toward vong forthe Republican candidate to the New Hampshire Senate orthe Democrac candidate?

October 2018

November 2018 8%

8% 2%

2% 39%

45% 51%

45%

N

(12)

A historicalanalysis was done looking atthe results ofthe "generic ballot" queson and the actualnumberofseats won by Republicans in the New Hampshire House and Senate in the 2000 through 2016 elecons.This was presented atthe annualmeeng ofthe American Associaon forPublic Opinion Research (AAPOR)AnnualMeeng,and is available from the UNH Survey Center.

The modeldeveloped in this paperused foresmang House seats from the generic ballotqueson is:

HOUSE SEATS = -262.787 + (two party GOP esmate * 980.554)

In this Granite State Poll,the two party esmate ofHouse vote percentage with leaners forRepublicans,45.4% (44% GOP / (44% GOP + 53% DEM)= 45.4%)is calculated and inserted into the formula above.This results in an esmate of218 Democrac House seats and 182 Republican House seats.

The modeldeveloped foresmang Senate seats from the generic ballotqueson is:

SENATE SEATS = -19.283 + (two party GOP esmate * 66.389)

In this Granite State Poll,the two party esmate ofSenate vote percentage with leaners forRepublicans,44.6% (44% GOP / (44% GOP + 55% DEM)= 44.6%)is calculated and inserted into the formula above.This results in an esmate of14 Democrac Senate seats and 10 Republican Senate seats.

NH Execuve CouncilGeneric Ballot(Pares Rotated)

And whataboutthe elecon foryourrepresentave to the New Hampshire Execuve Council.Do you plan to vote forthe Republican or Democrac candidate forthe New Hampshire Execuve Councilordo you plan to skip the elecon forNew Hampshire Execuve Councilthis me?

(IfUndecided)

Are you learning toward vong forthe Republican candidate to the New Hampshire Execuve Councilorforthe Democrac candidate?

October 2018

November 2018 10%

10% 2%

1% 39%

44% 49%

44%

N

(13)

Extremely

Interested Very Interested

Somewhat

Interested Not Very Interested

STATEWIDE 53% 34% 11% 1%

Interestin 2018 GeneralElecon

N

629

Registered to

Vote Reg._Regi_steredDemocrat_Undecl_ared/_Not_Reg.

Reg.Republican

Age of Respondent

18 to 34 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and older

Sex of

Respondent Femal_Mal_ee Levelof

Education Hi_Technigh school_cal_schoolor less_/_Some_col_l_ege

College graduate Postgraduate work

Region of

State Central_Connecti/_cutLakes_Val_l_ey

Manchester Area Mass Border North Country Seacoast

Approvalof President

Approve of Trump Neutral

Disapprove of Trump

Core Voter

Status Core _Swi_ngDEM_Voter

Core GOP

Sex & Age Men,18-34 Men,35-49 Men,50-64 Men,65 and older Women,18-34 Women,35-49 Women,50-64 Women,65 and older

Sex &

Education Men,_Men,No _HaveCol_College _l_egeDegree_Degree

Women,No College Degree Women,Have College Degree

(14)

STATEWIDE 53% 32% 10% 6%

Frequency Discussing Elecon

N

630

Registered to

Reg.Republican

Age of Respondent

18 to 34 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and older

Sex of

Region of

Disapprove of Trump

Core Voter

Core GOP

Interest in

2018 Election Extremel_Very_I_nterestedy Interested

Somewhat/Not Very Interested

Sex & Education

Men,No College Degree Men,Have College Degree Women,No College Degree Women,Have College Degree

(15)

Chris Sununu Jilletta Jarvis Molly Kelly Other Undecided

STATEWIDE 46% 2% 46% 0% 6%

NH GovernorRace -Chris Sununu vs.Molly Kelly vs.Jille a Jarvis (Candidates Rotated)

N

604

Registered to

Reg.Republican

Age of Respondent

18 to 34 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and older

Sex of

Region of

Disapprove of Trump

Core Voter

Core GOP

Interest in

Sex & Education

(16)

STATEWIDE 74% 9% 17%

New Hampshire GovernorFirmness ofChoice

N

614

Registered to

Reg.Republican

Age of Respondent

18 to 34 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and older

Sex of

Region of

Disapprove of Trump

Core Voter

Core GOP

Interest in

Sex & Education

6% 26% 13%

3% 11%

9%

90% 63% 78%

10% 31% 18%

5% 9% 12%

84% 60% 71%

13% 14% 15% 30%

7% 9% 6% 14%

80% 77% 79% 56%

17% 17% 10%

8% 73%

75%

14% 18% 17% 20%

10% 9% 8% 10%

75% 73% 75% 71%

18% 16% 15% 16% 22% 19%

6% 3% 10%

7% 15%

9%

77% 82% 75% 76% 64% 72%

18% 17% 9%

8% 73%

74%

19% 39% 14%

11% 17% 5%

70% 44% 81%

9% 31% 19%

5% 14% 10%

86% 55% 71%

38% 28% 6%

13% 10% 7%

49% 62% 87%

15% 16% 15% 27% 11% 12% 16% 33%

3% 10%

2% 16% 11% 8% 10% 12%

82% 74% 83% 57% 78% 80% 75% 55%

17% 18% 16% 19%

7% 9% 12%

9%

76% 74% 72% 73%

149 284 179

218 101 287

131 188 151 130

287 327

89 132 251 135

115 55 141 103 92 108

313 301

343 20 238

227 95 292

70 215 328

75 96 80 66 56 92 71 63

(17)

Chris Sununu Jilletta Jarvis Molly Kelly Undecided

STATEWIDE 70% 1% 15% 14%

Who Do You Think WillWin GubernatorialElecon

N

626

Registered to

Reg.Republican

Age of Respondent

18 to 34 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and older

Sex of

Region of

Disapprove of Trump

Core Voter

Core GOP

Interest in

Sex & Education

(18)

Chris Pappas Dan Belforti Eddie Edwards Undecided

STATEWIDE 53% 3% 40% 4%

2018 1stDistrictCongressionalElecon (Candidates Rotated)

N

294

Registered to

Reg.Republican

Age of Respondent

18 to 34 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and older

Sex of

Region of

State Central_Manchester/Lakes_Area

Mass Border North Country Seacoast

Approvalof

President Approve _Neutralof Trump

Disapprove of Trump

Core Voter Status

Core DEM Swing Voter Core GOP

Interest in

Sex &

Executive CouncilDistrict

1st District 2nd District 3rd District 4th District 5th District

(19)

Ann Kuster _O'Justi_Donneln_l Steve Negron Other Undecided

STATEWIDE 56% 2% 35% 1% 7%

2018 2nd DistrictCongressionalElecon (Candidates Rotated)

N

302

Registered to

Reg.Republican

Age of Respondent

18 to 34 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and older

Sex of

Region of

Manchester Area Mass Border North Country

Approvalof

Disapprove of Trump

Core Voter Status

Interest in

Sex &

(20)

Democrat Republican

Some Democrat,

Some Republican

Other Undecided

STATEWIDE 50% 40% 2% 1% 7%

New Hampshire House ofRepresentaves Generic Ballot(Pares Rotated)

N

606

Registered to Vote

Reg.Democrat

Registered Undeclared/Not Reg. Reg.Republican

Age of

Respondent 18 ₃₅to _to34₄₉

50 to 64 65 and older

Sex of

Region of State

Central/Lakes Connecticut Valley Manchester Area Mass Border North Country Seacoast

Congressional

District Fi_Secondrst Congressi_Congressional_onalDistri_Di_strict_ct Approvalof

Disapprove of Trump

Core Voter

Core GOP

Interest in

Sex &

(21)

STATEWIDE 51% 39% 2% 8%

New Hampshire Senate Generic Ballot(Pares Rotated)

N

606

Registered to

Reg.Republican

Age of Respondent

18 to 34 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and older

Sex of

Region of

Disapprove of Trump

Core Voter

Core GOP

Interest in

Sex & Education

(22)

STATEWIDE 49% 39% 2% 10%

NH Execuve CouncilGeneric Ballot(Pares Rotated)

N

593

Registered to

Reg.Republican

Age of Respondent

18 to 34 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and older

Sex of

Region of

Disapprove of Trump

Core Voter Status

Interest in

Sex &