Modelling the mid-term development of the energy system with the use of technology explicit partial equilibrium model

Modelling the mid-term development of the

energy system with the use of technology

explicit partial equilibrium model

Artur Wyrwa1,2_{, Marcin Pluta}1,2, Janusz Zyśk1,2_{, Szymon}

Skoneczny2_{,Tomasz Mirowski}1,2

1 _{AGH University of Science and Technology, Al. Mickiewicza 30, Krakow, 30-059 Poland} 2 _{Academic Computer Centre CYFRONET AGH, ul. Nawojki 11, Krakow, 30-950 Poland.}

1



ESA -

P

latform for an

I

ntegrated

E

nergy

S

ystem

A

nalysis

Emission Inventory

TIMES-PL _Polyphemus Concentrations

Energy Model Pressures Dispersion State Impacts

Damage Functions Data Europe Meteo ECMWF Other pollutans EMEP Natural emission EMEP Pollutans PMs(10,2.5) SO₂ NOx GHGs Resolution Spatial (conc&pop) 50x50 km Vertical 11 level Temporal Annual (10 min) Impact indicators: • Health

• Dedicated to modelling of the mid-term development of the energy system • Based on the Driver–Pressure–State–Impact–Response (DPSIR) framework • Can be used to support the decision making process

Depicting reality inside an

energy system model

1 n j j j k c x      1 1 2 n ij j i j a x b i , ,...,m        0 1 2 j x  j , ,...,n

Reality

Model structure

Mathematical

description

Data

Optimiser

CPLEX

Parallel barrier optimizer Feedback

Cross-checking results with reality

TIMES energy model generator

• Linear programming, bottom-up, technology-rich • Demand driven (exogenous) in physical units • Price-elasticities for end-use demands

• Partial and dynamic equilibrium (perfect competition)

• Environmental, economical, technical, political constraints

• Optimal technology selection in the time horizon considered (20-50 yrs) • Objective-function: Maximizes net social surplus

Benefits of using PLGrid PLUS

infrastructure

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 R 1 M O 1 1 R 1 M O 8 1 R 2 T U 7 1 R 3 W E 6 1 R 4 T H 5 1 R 5 FR 4 1 R 6 S A 3 1 R 7 S U 2 2 S 1 M O 1 2 S 1 M O 8 2 S 2 T U 7 2 S 3 W E 6 2 S 4 T H 5 2 S 5 FR 4 2S 6S A 3 2 S 7 S U 2 3 F1 M O 1 3 F1 M O 8 3 F2 T U 7 3 F3 W E 6 3 F4 T H 5 3 F5 FR 4 3 F6 S A 3 3 F7 S U 2 4 W 1 M O 1 4 W 1 M O 8 4 W 2 T U 7 4 W 3 W E 6 4 W 4 T H 5 4 W 5 FR 4 4 W 6 S A 3 4 W 7 S U 2 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 1 R 1 M O 1 1R 1 M O 8 1 R 2 T U 7 1 R 3 W E 6 1 R 4 T H 5 1 R 5 FR 4 1 R 6 S A 3 1 R 7 S U 2 2 S1 MO1 2 S1 MO8 2 S 2 T U 7 2 S 3 W E 6 2 S 4 T H 5 2 S 5 FR 4 2 S 6 S A 3 2 S 7 S U 2 3 F1 M O 1 3 F1 M O 8 3 F2 T U 7 3 F3 W E 6 3 F4 T H 5 3 F5 FR 4 3 F6 S A 3 3 F7 S U 2 4W 1M O 1 4 W 1 M O 8 4 W 2 T U 7 4 W 3 W E 6 4 W 4 T H 5 4 W 5 FR 4 4 W 6 S A 3 4 W 7 S U 2 Hea t Dem a n d E lect ri cty Dem a n d Supply Side Demand Side

Benefits of using PLGrid PLUS

infrastructure

Changes in ambient concentration: SO₂ [ug/m3_{] Environmental and health impacts} [eq/ha] 0 1 - 500 501 - 1000 1001 - 1250 1251 - 1500 1501 - 1750 1751 - 2500

Driver–Pressure–State–Impact–Response

Model coupling

Long-term energy modelling Temporal profiles of emission release based on activity

0 50 100 150 200 250 2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Net e lect ri city g e n e ratio n [ TW h ] Other Solar Wind Offshore Wind Onshore Biogas Biomass

Energy modelling wiht



ESA

-functionalities

Functionality I

- users experienced in energy system modelling who use the VEDA data handling system:

ESA offers access to the

supercomputers of CYFRONET AGH

Functionality II

-users without knowledge of VEDA:

ESA offers an in-built RES, which can be used to model the development of the Polish energy system

ESA

-technologies used in the application: JSP, Java, AJAX, Java Script

Encrypted connection

User is redirected after using alias piesa.plgrid.pl

Credentials on zeus.cyfronet.pl (The server tries to establish SSH

connection)

If credentials are correct, then the user is redirected to the requested page. For example „Model management”.

Description of a page Main menu

The user may select a model by choosing „Load own model”. It is necessary when for the first functionallity.

Page structure

Logout Information about

When model is selected, then user may change values of model parameters List of models is created based

on files existing in user folder on zeus.cyfronet.pl

The table is used to edit parameters The button executes Java code, and files with parameter are modified. Only part of the page is refreshed by using of AJAX.

qsub vqgams CYFRONET.RUN RESULTS

Previously selected model name Script with defined parameters of

job (user’s certificate, number of cores)

Name of result file. This name is required by GAMS

User runs the simulation by page Simulation settings -> Run

simulation. Then the following command is launched on

zeus.cyfronet.pl

Summary

• The performed studies demonstrate that the



ESA service can

be used for modelling the development of energy systems.

• It enables the users to efficiently solve the complex energy

models developed in TIMES with the use of the CYFRONET

AGH supercomputers.

• Future work will be dedicated to development of the structure of

the in-built model of the reference energy system and further

integration of the



ESA components.

DZIĘKUJĘ ZA UWAGĘ

Dr inż. Artur Wyrwa tel. 12 617-41-74 e-mail: [email protected]

"Przedstawione prace są realizowane w ramach projektu PLGrid Plus, który jest współfinansowany ze środków Europejskiego Funduszu Rozwoju Regionalnego w ramach Programu