2015 OUTLOOK
RAISED AGAIN
Q2 2015
20 August 2015 1 CopenhagenCONTENTS
2 • Overview • Q2 2015 • Outlook 2015 • MGO transition • Channel• Semi-annual dividends and stock split • Strategy, goals and priorities
• Appendix: EBIT per BU
The statements about the future in this announcement contain an element of risk and uncertainty, both in general and specific terms, and this means that actual developments may diverge considerably from the statements about the future. 2
Q2 EARNINGS ABOVE EXPECTATIONS
3
•
Organic revenue growth of 6% in Q2
•
Operating profit (EBITDA) increased by 37% to DKK 551m
•
Shipping Division’s earnings increased by higher volumes of freight and
passengers, improved unit revenues and operational efficiency gains
•
Logistics Division’s earnings in line with expectations
•
ROIC LTM* increased to 10.3%
(LTM Q1 2015: 9.0%)
•
EBITDA outlook for 2015 raised to DKK 1.8-1.9bn (DKK 1.65-1.75bn)
•
Board of Directors propose semi-annual dividends, an interim dividend
of DKK 9 already this year, and a 1:5 stock split
47 58 373 517 -17 -24 -30 20 70 120 170 220 270 320 370 420 470 520 570 Q2 2014 Q2 2015
DKK m EBITDA before special items, Q2 2015
Non-allocated Shipping Division Logistics Division 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
DKK m DFDS Group - EBITDA before special items
2013 2014 2015
Q2 2015 – EBITDA UP
BY 37% TO DKK 551M
4 4 Margin: 12.2% Margin: 16.1%•
Strong impact from operating
leverage in Shipping Division
following growth in revenue and
capacity utilization
•
Increased results in all shipping
business units – particularly strong
performance in the Passenger and
Channel business units
•
Logistics’ performance improved in
most areas and a positive impact
from acquisitions…
•
…but offset by challenging market
conditions in Baltics and N. Ireland
Q2 2015 IN NUMBERS
5
5
•
Group organic revenue growth of
6%, adjusted for route closures and
acquisitions
•
Shipping Division’s revenue up by
8%, adjusted for route closures,
volume growth in excess of 10%
when adjusting for Dover-Calais
•
Logistics Division’s revenue
increased by new major contract
and acquisitions
•
P/L associates: Variance of DKK
-29m due to one-off income 2014
•
ROIC of 10.3% - (8.0%)
DKK m1 Q2 15 Q2 14 Change vs LY Change % REVENUE 3.432 3.306 126 4% EBITDA BEFORE SI 551 403 149 37% margin, % 16,1 12,2 3,9 n.a. P/L associates -5 24 -29 n.a.Gain/loss asset sales 0 2 -2 n.a.
Depreciations -201 -193 -9 5%
EBIT BEFORE SI 346 237 109 46%
margin, % 10,1 7,2 2,9 n.a.
Special Items -11 -14 3 n.a.
EBIT 335 223 111 50%
Finance -26 -6 -20 n.a.
PTP BEFORE SI 319 231 89 38%
PTP 308 217 91 42%
EMPLOYEES avg., no. 6.471 6.146 325 5%
INVESTED CAPITAL 8.617 8.578 39 0%
ROIC LTM ex. SI, % 10,3 8,0 2,3 n.a.
NIBD 2.219 2.334 -115 -5%
NIBD/EBITDA, times 1,3 1,7 -0,4 n.a.
SOLVENCY, % 49 50 -1,0 n.a.
EBITDA OUTLOOK 2015 RAISED TO DKK 1.8-1.9BN
6 6NEW
OUTLOOK 2015
•
Revenue up by around 3%,
and up by around 5%
adjusted for route closures
and acquisitions,
unchanged
•
EBITDA of DKK 1.8-1.9bn
(DKK 1.65-1.75bn)
•
Investments of DKK 650m,
unchanged
•
Q2 EBITDA above expectations
•
Volume growth of freight and passengers set
to continue in most areas
•
Capacity utilisation in shipping increasing in
general - no major new capacity foreseen
•
Currency changes – GBP up, SEK & NOK down
– are starting to shift some production and
trade patterns in Europe…
•
…and the Logistics Division is consequently
impacted by balance issues in certain traffic
corridors
•
Customer focus and continuous improvement
2015: UPDATE ON MAJOR PERFORMANCE DRIVERS
7
7
Likely
Expected
Uncertain
Macro drivers
• Positive impact from closed routes as expected • Resolution of structural overcapacity in Channel more certainty • Level of competitive pressure no change • Russian market demand • Procurement efficiencies & impact from other projects as expected • Positive impact from Logistics acquisitions as expected • Volume growth, freight and passengers above outlook • Bunker cost savings above outlook • Changes in oil price and exchange rates • Norwegian market demand • ‘Grexit’
BUNKER Q2 2015
8
• Price spread between MGO
and HFO has dropped to around USD 195 (EUR 175) • Benefits from scrubbers and
savings on passenger routes
• Lower bunker costs passed
on to freight customers through bunker adjustment clauses
• Continued strong focus on fuel consumption reduction across the fleet
8 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 U SD and E U R
Oil prices and spread, Sep 2014 - Aug 2015
0,1% LSMGO, USD 3,5% IFO 380, USD 1% LS380, USD Variance MGOvsHFO, EUR
-70 -50 -30 -10 10 30 50 70 90 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 DKK m Channel, EBIT 2.014 2015
CHANNEL: SITUATION PROGRESSING
9
• MyFerryLink stopped sailings on 29 June
• 7 ferries operated between Dover and Calais end Q2, compared to 10 at beginning of year
• Longterm bareboat charter agreements entered into for
ferries Rodin and Berlioz – Eurotunnel has put option with expiration mid-2017
• Planned delivery for 2 July delayed as ferries are still occupied by former employees of SCOP-SeaFrance • Disruption of Dover-Calais ferry services in July by
industrial actions – partly offset by transfer of one ferry to Dover-Dunkirk. Operations normalised end July
• Subject to certain conditions, DFDS is offering to employ 202 employees to operate a third ferry on Dover-Calais
9
SEMI-ANNUAL DIVIDENDS AND STOCK SPLIT
10
• Proposals from Board of Directors*:
• Introduction of semi-annual dividends
• Interim dividend of DKK 9 already this year
• Stock split 1:5
• Cancellation of 350,000 shares as part of share
buyback programme
• Faster return of capital, more flexibility and alignment to DFDS’ annual cash flow cycle
• Total distribution of capital now expected to exceed DKK 700m in 2015
• Stock split to enhance liquidity of share
• NIBD/EBITDA at 1.3 times end Q2
• Potential increase of leverage from exercise of put option related to Channel ferries and acquisitions in addition to the investments included in 2015 guidance
10 14 14 18 9 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 2013 2014 2015
DKK Dividend paid per share
Interim dividend per share Ordinary dividend per share
*Pending approval by Extraordinary General Meeting 17 Sept, 2015
101 218 300 107 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
DKK m Capital distribution 2015 (expected)
Share buyback, Jan-Apr Ordinary dividend, Mar Share buyback, Apr-Dec Interim dividend, Sep
STRATEGY, GOALS AND PRIORITIES
11
11
Priorities 2015 -
UNCHANGED
1. Customer focus
2. Efficiency and improvement
projects
3. MGO transition
4. Employee
satisfaction/development
5. Market coverage
Best practice Performance culture
Continuous
improvement Leveraging scale
Customer driven
DFDS’ strategy drivers:
•The DFDS Way: Customer focus and continuous improvement
•Network strength: Expand to leverage operating model
•Integrated shipping and logistics operations: Utilisation of tonnage
•Financial strength and performance: Reliable partner
ROIC GOAL OF 10% ACHIEVED IN Q2 2015
12 12 4,5 4,4 4,5 4,7 5,8 5,8 7,1 7,9 8,0 9,0 10,3 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 %20 August 2015
Q2 2015
• North Sea: 10.1%* higher freight volumes. Growth on all
routes. Positive impact on port terminal earnings • Baltic Sea: 2.4%* higher freight volumes
• Passenger: passengers up by 5.9%* and unit revenues
above expectations on both routes
• Channel: 4.2% lower freight volumes, 3.9% lower pax
volumes following one-ship operation on Dover-Calais. Cost savings from one-ship operation and higher capacity utilisation on Dover-Dunkirk
• France & Med: Higher activity and more efficient
operations
• Logistics Division: Lower earnings in Nordic due to Baltic
and start-up costs for new contract. Rebalancing of traffics improved Continent earnings. UK & Ireland improved
earnings offset by lower result for Northern Ireland activities
APPENDIX - EBIT PER BU
14
14 * Adjusted for route closures
214 346 21 19 42 25 16 4 5 200 220 240 260 280 300 320 340 360 DKK m
DFDS Group EBIT development Q2 2015
(adjusted for route closures and one-off income from termination of port customer contract in 2014)