THE ROLE OF BANKS
IN FINANCING DEVELOPMENT – A POLISH PERSPECTIVE
Krzysztof Pietraszkiewicz
President of the Polish Bank Association EuInteg Conference
14 May 2015, Warsaw
Transformation of the Polish economy vs.
changes in the world of politics and economy
• Dominating economic doctrines and economic policies.
• Intensive processes of globalization.
• Gdańsk `70, Radom `76, August `80, the martial law.
• The beginning of reforms in the Polish banking sector (1983).
• The dissolution of the USSR, Comecon and Warsaw Pact.
• The enlargement of the European Union.
• The growing role of China and other BRIC countries.
25 years of the Polish transformation 1989-2004
The Round Table talks
Elections
Mazowiecki’s government
Lech Wałęsa becomes the President
The Constitution of 1997
Elections
The Banking Law Act and the Act on the NBP
Poland joins the EU (2004)
The transformation of the Polish economy
in numbers
GDP in Poland in the years 1993, 2003 and 2013 (mln PLN)
175
843
1618
0 400 800 1200 1600 2000
1993 2003 2013
Source: The Central Statistical Office.
Rapid growth in the equity capital of banks (% of GDP)
Source: The Polish Bank Association.
2.00
4.81
8.40
0 2 4 6 8
1993 2003 2013
GDP per capita
in Poland and the EU (EUR)
Source: Eurostat.
Poland EU
Average annual GDP growth rate in the period 2006-2013 (%)
Source: The International Monetary Fund.
3.93.6
2.4 2.3
2.1 2.0
1.7 1.7 1.7
1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3
1.00.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5
0.3 0.2 0.10.0
-0.1-0.4 -0.6
-2.2
Poland Slovakia Romania Lithuania Bulgaria Malta Estonia Sweden Czech Rep. Luxembourg Germany Latvia Austria Belgium Slovenia Holland France UK Finland Cyprus Ireland Spain Denmark Hungary Croatia Portugal Italy Greece
The growth in public debt as % of GDP in the period 2006-2013 (percentage points)
Source: The International Monetary Fund.
82.3
66.3 65.2
54.2
47.4 46.6 46.6
29.827.5 26.6 26.2
24.4 24.4 22.221.4
19.7 17.416.2
13.3 13.1 11.9 11.810.0 9.7 9.2 6.9
-3.9 -5.8
Ireland Greece Portugal Spain UK Slovenia Cyprus France Holland Romania Italy Croatia Slovakia Latvia Lithuania Czech Rep. Finland Luxembourg Hungary Denmark Austria Belgium Germany Poland Malta Estonia Sweden Bulgaria
The growth in unemployment rate
in the period 2006-2013 (percentage points)
Source: Eurostat.
18.417.9
11.5
8.6 8.5
6.1 5.4 5.3 5.0
4.1 4.0
3.1 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.2 1.6
1.0 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.0
-0.2 -0.4 -3.5
-4.9
Greece Spain Cyprus Portugal Ireland Lithuania Italy Croatia Latvia Slovenia Bulgaria Denmark Hungary Estonia Luxembourg Holland UK France Sweden Slovakia Finland Belgium Austria Romania Czech Rep. Malta Poland Germany
The savings rate of households (%)
Source: The National Bank of Poland.
12,9 12,3
14,1
10,6 10,1
8,0 8,3 8,5
7,2
2,4
9,0 8,5
1,7
5,0
2,2
3,8
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 I kw 2014
The export of goods (bn euro)
Source: The Central Statistical Office.
59,6 71,4
87,9
101,8
116,2
98,2
120,3
136,6 143,4 154,9 163,1
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Average annual growth in the export of goods in the years 2006-2013
Source: The Central Statistical Office.
8.0 7.5
6.7 6.6 6.3
5.6
5.1 5.0
4.7 4.7 4.7 4.4
4.0 3.9
3.4 3.2
3.0 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.4
1.5 1.4 1.4 1.2
-0.1 -0.2 -0.3
Lithuania Slovakia Hungary Romania Poland Czech Rep. Malta Latvia UK Bulgaria Estonia Germany Sweden Slovenia Spain Holland Luxembourg Denmark Portugal Ireland Austria Finland France Italy Belgium Greece Croatia Cyprus
The balance of foreign direct investment in Poland (bn EUR)
Source: The National Bank of Poland.
10.3
6.4
4.4 4.3
10.3
8.3
15.6
17.2
10.1 9.3 10.5
14.8
4.7
-4.6
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
The growth in loans
in the period: December 2008 - March 2014
Source: The National Bank of Poland.
49.6 39.3
29.7
20.620.2
17.316.015.1
13.312.911.9
7.0 6.3 6.2
4.4 3.1 2.2 0.7
-0.1 -0.6 -1.3
-9.4-11.7
-20.4-22.3
-25.4-25.9
-40.8
Sweden Poland Slovakia Finland UK Czech Rep. Luxembourg Malta France Cyprus Bulgaria Italy Austria Greece Holland EU Belgium Germany Romania Denmark Eurozone Portugal Estonia Slovenia Lithuania Hungary Spain Ireland
State aid for the banking sector in the years 2008-2012 (bn EUR)
Source: The European Commission.
144.1 122.8
88.1 65.4
40.4 37.3
26.2 23.9
10.8 9.9 9.8 6.1 2.6 1.8 1 0.8 0.7 0.2
Crisis Facts – GDP change since 2007 (%)
Źródło: Międzynarodowy Fundusz Walutowy: „World Economic Outlook – October 2013”
Banks
in the process of disinflation
Inflation
in the years 1990-2013 (annual)
Source: The Central Statistical Office.
585.8
70.3 43.0
35.3 32.2 27.8 19.9
14.9 11.8 7.3 10.1 5.5 1.9 0.8 3.5 2.1 1.0 2.5 4.2 3.5 2.6 4.3 3.7 0.9
Revenue lost due to reserve requirements (bn PLN)
Source: The National Bank of Poland.
1.5 1.7 1.9
2.3
3.8
4.2
3.3
2.6 2.6
1.7
0.8 0.5
0.4 0.3
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007- 2013
0.0
Nominal and effective tax rates on banks (%)
Source: The National Bank of Poland.
36
34
30
28 28
27
19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19
56,7
132,7
111,2 37,4*
32,0**
40,1
20,3
16,7 17,8 18,2 18,6 18,3
19,6
19,7 19,4 19,04 19,9
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Stopa nominalna Stopa efektywna
Contributions to the assistance fund in the Bank Guarantee Fund (BFG) (mln PLN)
Source: The Bank Guarantee Fund, The Polish Bank Association.
159 96 122 93 62 69 79 102
310 301
713
829 875
1 200
2 238
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Banking services in the country of
social market economy
The structure of the financial system in Poland (%)
Source: The National Bank of Poland, The Polish Financial Supervision Authority, Analizy Online, K SKOK.
Banks
Insurance companies Pension funds
SKOK
Investment funds Brokerage entities
The number of banks
Source: The Polish Financial Supervision Authority.
87
82 81 81
81 83 77
73 69
59 58 57
61 63 63
70 69 70 68 70 69 66 1 6531 612
1 510 1 394
1 295 1 189
781 680
642 605 600
596 588 584 582 579 578 576
574 572 571 565
0 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 1 400 1 600 1 800
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
100 Commercial Cooperative
The number of branches
* Data for the years 2012-2013 not fully comparable.
Source: The Polish Financial Supervision Authority.
13 910 14 207
13 921
15 412 15 297
15 062
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
The number of employees (thousands)
Source: The Polish Financial Supervision Authority.
Significant role of the Polish banks in the economy
The Polish banking system:
• stable economically,
• modern with regard to new technologies,
• well managed,
• well supervised,
• efficient.
Significant role of the Polish banks in the economy
• More and more Poles use banking services.
• High level of trust in banks.
• Modern clearing system.
• Modern systems of managing risk.
• Modern systems of information exchange.
• Many new products though generally universal banking.
Equity capital for the solvency ratio in the banking sector (mln PLN)
Source: The Polish Financial Supervision Authority.
37 769 40 558 40 564 42 719 46 587 51 234
61 765
77 569
89 737
100 599
110 026
128 235
138 611 138 926
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 IX 2014
Deposits/GDP (%)
Source: The National Bank of Poland.
36,40% 40,00% 42,61% 44,39% 45,86% 45,37% 47,52% 48,90%
22,40% 26,20% 28,40% 29,88% 31,34% 32,33% 33,59% 35,49%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Depozyty podmiotów sektora niefinansowego Depozyty Gospodarstw Domowych
Net assets of the banking sector (bn PLN)
Source: The Polish Financial Supervision Authority.
469 702 466 520 488 962
538 472 586 426
681 792
794 950
1 039 156 1 056 677
1 158 533
1 294 564 1 350 197
1 405 693
1 532 289
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Loans to the households, firms and local authorities (bn PLN)
Source: The National Bank of Poland.
117,9 120,486,1 98,1 109,6116 119,1 136,5136 182,9 171,2 216 212 204 238,9 244 249 263 254
367
412
477,5
524 535 564 605
9,2 10,7 11 11,9
14,7
15,8
16
25 33,2
38,9 37,8 34,3 36
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 01-2015
firms households local authorities
The number of active mortgage contracts in the years 2006-2014 (thousands)
Source: The Polish Bank Association.
Impaired receivables as % of all receivables
Source: The Polish Financial Supervision Authority.
30,1 27,9
20,4
12,7
10,2 10,5
13,3 15 17,9
21,1 21,2
14,9 11
7,4
5,2 4,4
7,6 8,79 8,29 8,9 8,5 8
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
ROA (%)
Source: The National Bank of Poland.
1,66%
1,53%
0,79%
1,04%
1,27%
1,17% 1,11% 1,10%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
ROE (%)
Source: The National Bank of Poland.
22,4%
20,5%
9,7%
11,7%
14,4%
13,0%
11,7% 12,1%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Operating costs ratio (%)
Source: The National Bank of Poland.
62,87% 60,29%
56,30% 54,40% 54,30%
51,30% 50,90%
50,90% 53,60% 52,40%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 06-2014
Interest margin (%)
Source: The National Bank of Poland.
3,26%
3,11%
3,35%
2,50%
2,78% 2,85% 2,68%
2,48% 2,53%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Internet banking (mln)
Source: The Polish Bank Association.
9 838 917
12 765 289
14 258 896
19 727 063
22 921 997 23 767 207 25 120 718
5 632 877
7 401 001 8 430 513
11 411 170 12 713 000 13 525 232
15 128 677
0 5 000 000 10 000 000 15 000 000 20 000 000 25 000 000 30 000 000
2007 2008 2009 2011 2012 2013 2014
IB contracts IB active customers
The number of payment cards in Poland (mln)
Source: The Polish Bank Association.
23,80
26,50
30,28
32,50 31,98 32,04 33,29 34,66 35,51
6,35 7,81 9,40 10,90
8,90 6,95 6,45 6,13 6,05
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 q3-2014
All payment cards Credit cards Debit cards
Ogółem:
• >100 banków, wszystkich rodzajów (w tym:
7-40 liderów)
• >35 mld PLN – Programy 2007-2013
• >62 tys. umów kredytowych na projekty unijne
w tym:
• 21 mld PLN, 18,5 tys. umów kredytowych- Polityka Spójności
• 4 mld PLN, 40 tys. umów kredyt.- PROW
• 0,6 mld PLN- JESSICA, JEREMIE (z bankami)
• 0,19 mld PLN- gwarancje bankowe w PROW
• 7,5 mld PLN- obligacje komunalne
• 0,55 mld, 3,6 tys. umów- CIP, Progress
45
Aktywność banków w absorpcji funduszy unijnych w minionej perspektywie finansowej
Trust in institutions – public opinion (%)
60 54
51 51 50 45
39 37 36 35 35 34 32 31 30 29 29 26 26 26 25 23 21 21 9
57 50
50 44
48 38
34 31
36 33 27
29 28 26 25 22 22 21
24 My bank
National Bank of Poland Catholic Church Media Banks operating in Poland Local authorities Judiciary system Insurance companies Bank Guarantee Fund Financial advisers working in banks Tax offices Banks operating in Europe Polish Bank Association Financial Supervision Authority ZUS Banks operating in the world Stock exchange Financial advisers working in firms other than banks Investment funds Open pension funds Clearing house SKOK Parliament Government Quasi-banks
2014 (N=1000) 2013 (N=1014)
Trust in institutions – entrepreneurs (%)
95 84
70 59
58 56 52 51 51 50 49 46 45 41 39 36 34 33 28 28 28 26 26 20 4
My bank National Bank of Poland Banks operating in Poland Bank Guarantee Fund Financial Supervision Authority Tax offices Financial advisers working in banks Polish Bank Association Local authorities Catholic Church Clearing house Insurance companies Stock exchange Banks operating in Europe Judiciary system ZUS Government Banks operating in the world Investment funds Media Parliament Financial advisers working in firms other than banks Open pension funds SKOK Quasi-banks
(N=300)
The public opinion on the satisfaction from banking services (%)
2 11 33 54
The decision was bad. The bank turned out to be completely different than I had expected.
I don't know / diffficult to say.
The decision was good but after some time it turned out that the bank has not fully met my expectations.
The decision was very good - the bank is exactly that I expected.
Please evaluate on a scale from 1 to 10 how satisfied are you from the services of your bank:
1112 10 11 20 26 13 14
1 (very dissatisfied) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (very satisfied)
With hindsight, how do you evaluate your decision to choose a bank?
N = 741
Average:
7.42
The entrepreneurs on the satisfaction from banking services (%)
Please evaluate on a scale from 1 to 10 how satisfied are you from the services of your bank.
1
2
0
0 4
4
4
3 4
6
1
0
12
16
7
3
9
10
7
5
15
16
15
15
32
26
39
50
12
9
16
18
10
11
9
8
7.21
6.95
7.54
7.87
All (N=300)
Micro (N=193)
Small (N=67)
Medium (N=40)
2 3 4 5 6 7 9 10 (very satisfied)
Average:
Banks – public opinion 30 (+2)
Banks – entrepreneurs 31
Micro 27
Medium 37
Small 38
SKOK 7 (+3)
Quasi-banks -13 (+2)
Reputation of the banking sector – TRI*M Reputation Index
Media 27 (no change)
Telecommunications companies 25 (+2) Insurance companies 24 (+2) Property developers 14 (+1)
21
2012
28
2013
+7
30
+2 2014
Why did we succeed?
• It is not accidentally or by coincidence.
• It is due to a lot of wise political and economic decisions.
• It is due to a solid work of the Polish bankers,
employees and graduates of universities, regulators and supervisors.
• It is also due to a responsible attitude of investors.
T
HANK YOUFOR ATTENTION
Krzysztof Pietraszkiewicz
President of the Polish Bank Association EuInteg Conference
14 May 2015, Warsaw
