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THINK Global: Risk and return

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THINK Global: Risk and return

Changing context of real estate returns in a globalised world

This document is solely for the use of professionals and is not for general public distribution.

Data generating art

Using data from Fig.1 in this report, the image is an abstract representation of market size and aggregated property risk SUHPLXPIRUVHOHFWHGRIoFHPDUNHWVDURXQGWKHZRUOG

(2)

Introduction: The need for a global risk benchmarking in real estate

Real estate has become a globalised asset class. For an LQGXVWU\EXLOWRQORFDOPDUNHWNQRZOHGJHWKHVZLWFKWRD

global perspective is a paradigm change. Traditionally, risks DQGRSSRUWXQLWLHVKDYHEHHQYLHZHGLQDORFDORUQDWLRQDO

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can also inform risk management and allocation strategies.

Risk comparability across the globe is the objective for the TH Real Estate Global Risk Model and the content of this report. It covers markets in Europe, Asia and North America to benchmark real estate risk against expected performance.

The model provides a method to understand real estate investment opportunities globally.

We analyse risk as local as possible, usually on the smallest level – the city market. Fig.1 provides an example of the type RIGDWDZHFDQGUDZIURPWKHULVNPRGHOKLJKOLJKWLQJPDUNHW

VL]HDQGDJJUHJDWHGSURSHUW\ULVNSUHPLXPIRUVHOHFWHGRIoFH

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Fig.1: Risk and market size

Source: TH Real Estate Risk Model, JLL, 2015

Risk premium

2IoFHVSDFHLQVVTP 9

8

7

6

5

4

3

0 25,000 50,000 75,000 100,000

Shenzhen Shanghai

Osaka Budapest

Madrid

Oslo Brussels Milano Dublin

Amsterdam

*ODVJRZ Lyon Manchester

Seattle Melbourne

Sydney Hamburg

Munich Dallas-Fort Worth

Chicago Washington, DC London

Paris

1HZ<RUN

Tokyo Berlin

2 THINK Global: Risk and return

(3)

Our rational: Measuring global real estate with the same yardstick

To address the need of a rapid globalising industry, global benchmarks and market comparisons across continents are paramount in steering decision making. TH Real Estate has analysed more than 2,000 data points to create a global risk PRGHOEHQFKPDUNLQJFLWLHVLQFRXQWULHVDFURVVRIoFH

retail and industrial sectors.

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that calculates real estate risk premiums over and above the FRXQWU\ULVNGHoQHGE\WKHkULVNIUHHyORQJUXQLQWHUHVWUDWH

RUERQG\LHOG5HDOHVWDWHVSHFLoFULVNIDFWRUVLQFOXGHOLTXLGLW\

volatility, income security and transparency.

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targets for each market. The results highlight stark differences EHWZHHQPDWXUHUHDOHVWDWHPDUNHWVZLWKORZUHDOHVWDWH

premium (eg. US and core Europe), and the nascent markets characterised by much higher real estate risk (eg. China).

)LJ5HTXLUHGUHWXUQVIRUJOREDORIoFHPDUNHWV

Source: TH Real Estate, 2015

1RWH%DVHGRQJOREDORIoFHPDUNHWVWKHVL]HRIWKHFLW\FLUFOHUHODWHVWRPDUNHWVL]HDQGWKHFRORXULQJUHODWHVWRWKHGLIIHUHQFHEHWZHHQ

H[SHFWHGDQGUHTXLUHGUHWXUQV

/RZ 5HTXLUHGUHWXUQ

High Oslo

Osaka

Lisboa

Budapest

Shanghai

Guangzhou

Beijing Shenzhen

Kuala Lumpur :DUV]DZD

Seattle Chicago

Stockholm

Washington, DC

Paris

München

Düsseldorf

Zürich

Frankfurt am Main

Dallas

Hamburg

Los Angeles

Sydney

Tokyo

Houston Wien

Seoul

Perth Madrid Milano

Melbourne Nagoya Københaun Helsinki

Brussel Miami Amsterdam

Dublin

FranciscoSan

Brisbane Praha Boston

1HZ<RUN Central

London

Berlin

(4)

Our method: The building blocks of risk

The model has been designed to assess the relative risk- adjusted returns across selected global real estate markets.

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free interest rate, country real estate transparency, local PDUNHWOLTXLGLW\UHODWLYHWRWKHVL]HRIWKHLQYHVWHGVHFWRUDQG

relative to the global traded sector, local market volatility of returns, and income security generated by lease terms and international corporate presence.

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VXEVHTXHQWO\FRPSDUHGWRIRUHFDVWVIRUH[SHFWHGUHWXUQV

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sector expected return in order to compensate for the risk.

It is important not to be too prescriptive, as the estimated parameters set for the individual building blocks for real estate ULVNSUHPLXP LHOLTXLGLW\YRODWLOLW\WUDQVSDUHQF\ LQHYLWDEO\

incorporate value judgements about risk premium; the IUDPHZRUNLVEHVWFRQFHLYHGDVDVWDUWLQJSRLQWWKDWKLJKOLJKWV

market risk relativities.

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,QGHHGLQGLYLGXDOLQYHVWRUVZLOOGLIIHULQWKHLUDWWLWXGHWRULVN

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DQGYRODWLOLW\WREHRIORZHULPSRUWDQFHDQGZRXOGQHHGWR

recalibrate the risk premium accordingly. The risk model is PRVWXVHIXOLQGUDZLQJRXWWKHUHODWLYHGLIIHUHQFHVEHWZHHQ

countries and sectors, and in providing market risk rankings ZLWKLQDJOREDOFRQWH[W

Liquidity

The ability to sell at any point in the real estate cycle is the IDFWRUZLWKWKHKLJKHVWZHLJKWLQJLQWKH7+5HDO(VWDWH5LVN

Model. There are only a handful of markets that remained OLTXLGRYHUWKHODVWGRZQWXUQDQGHYHQWKRVHPDUNHWVZHUH

facing severe challenges at the time.

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the length of time that a property is introduced to the market until completion of a deal, and comparing the length of the sale process across markets. This information has been GLIoFXOWWRoQG

We have decided to use a transaction volume based approach WKDWPHDVXUHVoYH\HDUVRIWUDQVDFWLRQYROXPHVDQGLWVJOREDO

market share. We have done this analysis on a sector level.

Transparency

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culture, the level of transparency of the real estate operating environment becomes a key risk element. Decision making at a local authority level and availability of market information DUHHOHPHQWVIRUWKLVFDWHJRU\ZKLFKLVXQGHUSLQQHGE\-//V

global real estate Transparency Index.

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the other end of the spectrum, ZLWKDKLJKOLTXLGLW\SUHPLXP

are struggling markets like Athens and emerging markets such as Kuala Lumpur.

Within our risk model, the UK is leading the transparency rankings, and Chinese and Malaysian cities are the most RSDTXHPDUNHWV

4 THINK Global: Risk and return

(5)

Income security

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also a key element for investors. We have captured income security in a global comparison of standard lease length as ZHOODVWKHSUHVHQFHRILQWHUQDWLRQDORFFXSLHUV)URPWKH

perspective of a global investor, the availability of multinational UHWDLOFKDLQVRIoFHRUORJLVWLFVRFFXSLHUVDVWHQDQWVLV

generally preferred to smaller, local occupiers, based on their usually higher covenants strengths.

Volatility

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a fourth cornerstone of our Global Risk Model is the measurement of volatility of income.

This is an especially interesting indicator, since some of the PDUNHWVZKLFKVFRUHZHOORQOLTXLGLW\DQGLQFRPHVHFXULW\

VXFKDV/RQGRQDQG1HZ<RUNDUHDOVRPRUHYRODWLOHDQGZLOO

receive a higher risk premium on this score.

The UK and the US have the best combination of long lease length structure and a high OHYHORIRFFXSLHUVDFWLYHZLWKD

good covenant structure. China VFRUHVLQWKHPLGGOHoHOGDQG

Japanese second tier cities are performing among the bottom.

Cities such as Washington, DC, or German cities are typically OHVVYRODWLOHZKLFKVHHVWKHP

scoring ahead of places like 1HZ<RUNRU/RQGRQZLWKD

higher volatility.

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Source: TH Real Estate Risk Model, 2015 0

3 6 9 12 15

Germany France United Kingdom Japan United States Netherlands Sweden Switzerland Australia Belgium Finland Austria Denmark Ireland Luxembourg Czech Republic Italy Norway Spain South Korea Hong Kong Portugal Poland Singapore Hungary China Malaysia

Key

Bond yield Transparency /LTXLGLW\ Volatility Income security

Our method: The building blocks of risk (continued)

(6)

Global results

(7)

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America

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of good convened tenants, and a high market transparency, FRQWULEXWHWRWKLVORZULVNHQYLURQPHQW

Europe

The three core markets - France, Germany and the UK - are the centre of European commercial activity and also the three ODUJHVWPDUNHWVZLWKLQ(XURSHLQRIoFHWUDQVDFWLRQV6ZHGHQ

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than the others.

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Australia scores ahead of its neighbours, due to a transparent market and high density of international corporates being DFWLYHLQ6\GQH\DQG0HOERXUQH-DSDQDOVRVFRUHVZHOOZLWK

relative high trading volumes. An obstacle for Japan is still the UHODWLYHORZWUDQVSDUHQF\DQGODFNRILQWHUQDWLRQDOLQYHVWRUV

compared to other mature markets.

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LVRODWLRQOHDYLQJRXWWKHFRPSDULVRQWRWKHH[SHFWHGUHWXUQV/RRNLQJDWWKLVVWUXFWXUDOULVNHQYLURQPHQWWKHJOREDORIoFHVHFWRULV

KLJKO\FRUUHODWHGZLWKWKHPDWXULW\RIWKHHFRQRP\DQGWKHPDUNHWVL]H

7KH8.DQGWKH86DUHFOHDUO\OHDGLQJWKHOLTXLGLW\PHDVXUH7KHVHPDUNHWVDUHDOVRVFRULQJZHOORQWUDQVSDUHQF\DQGLQFRPHVHFXULW\

PHDVXUHV2QWKHRWKHUKDQGORRNLQJDWYRODWLOLW\*HUPDQPDUNHWVDUHDFKLHYLQJWKHEHVWVFRUHVUHpHFWLQJ*HUPDQRFFXSLHUGHPDQG

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Tour Areva, Paris

WK$YHQXH1HZ<RUN 699 Bourke Street, Melbourne

(8)

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Source: TH Real Estate Risk Model, 2015 Key

/RZ

/RZWRPHGLXP

Medium Medium to high High

8 THINK Global: Risk and return

(9)

5HWDLO6KRSSLQJFHQWUHV

America

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VWUXFWXUDOULVNLQJHQHUDO/LTXLGLW\LVKLJKHYHQWKRXJKWKH

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global average, due to the typically long holding periods of REITs.

Europe

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ODWHVWGRZQWXUQDQGDORZHUWUDQVSDUHQF\UDWLQJUHVXOWHG

in a relatively high risk premium. Portugal, particularly, UHJLVWHUVRQWKHKLJKHUULVNVSHFWUXPGXHWRORZOHYHOVRI

recorded transactions.

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the market size is limited, and not as many international UHWDLOHUVRSHUDWHLQ6ZHGHQDVLQWKH8.RU*HUPDQ\

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H[KLELWVWKHRYHUDOOORZHVWVWUXFWXUDOULVNWRVKRSSLQJ centres, and Malaysia remains the riskiest of the markets WKDWZHPRQLWRU

China is found in the higher risk category, despite a large number of international retailers operating in China.

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Ala Moana Center, Honolulu Bullring, Birmingham Florentia Village Jingjin, Beijing

(10)

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Source: TH Real Estate Risk Model, 2015 Key

/RZ

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Medium Medium to high High

10 THINK Global: Risk and return

(11)

,QGXVWULDO0HDVXULQJWKHVL]HRIRSSRUWXQLW\

America

$PHULFDVORJLVWLFVVHFWRULVWKHELJJHVWORJLVWLFPDUNHWJOREDOO\

in terms of volumes of trade. In recent years, expected total UHWXUQVKDYHGURSSHGDQGWKHIRUHFDVWIRUWKHQH[WoYH\HDUV

LVUHODWLYHO\ORZ

Europe

Europe is looking exceptionally positive on this measure.

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$VLD3DFLoF

It is only China and Singapore that have expected return YDOXHVIDUEHORZUHTXLUHGULVNPRGHOUHWXUQV

The key application of the risk model is the comparison to expected returns. Current market conditions, such as bond yields and H[SHFWHGUHWXUQVDUHFRPSDUHGZLWKWKHORQJWHUPVWUXFWXUDOFRQGLWLRQVWKDWKDYHEHHQGHWHUPLQHGE\WKHULVNPRGHO%HORZLVWKH

example of the industrial sector, highlighting selective opportunities based on the risk model. This result has to be interpreted in the FRQWH[WRIORFDOPDUNHWNQRZOHGJHRQDQDVVHWOHYHOWKHUHZLOOEHVSHFLoFRXWSHUIRUPHUVRUXQGHUSHUIRUPHUV7KLVPRGHOVHUYHVDVD

reference point for global comparison purposes.

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Source: TH Real Estate, 2015 Key

Transparency premium /LTXLGLW\SUHPLXPoQDO

Volatility premium Income security premium

Bond yield Expected return

Returns

high

Ireland Czech Republic Hungary Belgium Poland United States

Italy Netherlands Portugal 6ZHGHQ Australia Greece China

Spain Denmark Luxembourg Austria 1RUZD\ 6ZLW]HUODQG

France Finland Germany United Kingdom Japan Hong Kong Singapore

ORZ

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(12)

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Source: TH Real Estate Risk Model, 2015 Key

Outperformance Outperformance likely Risks covered

Possibility of underperformance Underperformance

12 THINK Global: Risk and return

(13)

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other markets, including those in Southern Europe, offer better risk-adjusted returns. The previous section describing the opportunity gap in the industrial sector is a good example.

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targeting optimal risk-adjusted returns for investors.

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makes market risk transparent and ensures consistency across RXUSRUWIROLRZRUOGZLGH2XUJOREDOUHVHDUFKFDSDELOLW\VWHHUV

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Torsten Steiner Research Analyst

(14)

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Torsten Steiner Research Analyst T: +442037278248

(WRUVWHQVWHLQHU#WKUHDOHVWDWHFRP

Contact us

[email protected] threalestate.com

@THRealEstate14

References

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