The Weekly Performance of the DSM ALSHALL Economic Services Q.s.c. Museum Street – Al-Jaber Tower Tel: + 974 4371167 – Fax: +974 4371168 Email:[email protected]
Web site:www.alshall.com
1- Oil:
In the forthcoming OPEC's ministerial meeting to be held in Vienna this week (28th May, 2009), we believe that OPEC will retain its production quantities as it did in its meeting on 15/03/2009. Nevertheless, prices will fluctuate slightly meaning that prices movement is affected by other factors than OPEC's decision. The opposite outcome happened in its three meetings when it decided to reduce production which was followed by drop in prices. OPEC gained nothing but the loss of the share of its committed members in the market and the beginning of skepticism among its members, the last one of which was a drop in OPEC's commitment from 83% in March to 78% in April. That was also true during prosperous times when most OPEC states used to produce at full capacity and exceed their quotas. In some cases, that violation resulted in de-facto rights, i.e. a reward to the non-complaint members.
In our estimate, OPEC should reduce the dose of politics in its decisions and rely on economic indexes. There is no harm in even a sharp drop in prices in the short term as long as prices increase again if the global economy improves. The latest forecasts on world oil demand in 2009 indicate a drop by one million barrels/day to 84.6 million barrels/day, a -1.2% drop according to OPEC and -3% according to International Energy Agency (IEA). That bodes well with the International Monetary Fund forecasts last April when it predicted the global economy would shrink by about -1.3%. The Fund estimated a shrink in the regional economies as follows: Kuwait -1.1%, Saudi Arabia -0.9%, and UAE -0.6%.
This scenario, which is a mixture of negative global economic growth, a drop in oil demand and a declining growth in some of the regional economies is endurable and much less that what happened in the aftermath of 1929 crisis. In fact, all said forecasts were based on economic changes in last February and March 2009, the two months during which global economy performance bottomed. We will not be surprised if expectations of global economic performance and oil demand (and consequently its prices) become better next July when some indexes about the second quarter's performance are known. As for the region's economy, it is enough to say that average oil price has substantially increased between April and May. Certainly, the forthcoming projections for the economic performance will be better due to the heavy impact of oil price on it.
In brief, we believe that the world has considerably changed its thinking and the interrelations among its members. This change will be essential in the aftermath of the financial crunch. We shall see a world united by interests and divided only by ideologies and politics. OPEC's strategy and thinking approach must change as its thinking no longer suits the present or the future. For instance, it should change its priorities from the temporary and unsuccessful control of the supply side to more important and useful matters. We believe for instance that its primary concern should be to mitigate the belligerency to oil as a pollution source and prepare for more taxes to be imposed on it in order to finance finding a substitute. That requires preparing research to respond to the weak and unjust arguments. Technologies should also be encouraged to reduce pollution levels
resulting from oil consumption. Another example is thinking of pricing oil to neutralize as much as possible the impact of exchange rates fluctuations on it. Linking its pricing to the US dollar at a time when the influence of the American economy is diminishing may not be the interest of regional economies.
2- Pricing of Securities Listed on the DSM:
Company Name Stock Price Book Value /Share P/E Ratio P/B Ratio 21-May-2009
Aamal Company 29.20 12.39 19.65 2.36
Barwa Real Estate co. 36.50 17.29 H 2.11
Qatar Cinema & Film Dist. co. 37.10 18.48 9.63 2.01
Ezdan Real Estate co. 31.50 14.41 10.24 2.19
Gulf International Services 26.80 13.14 8.06 2.04
National Leasing Holding co. 18.50 13.85 10.85 1.34
Mannai Corporation 125.00 37.37 12.22 3.34
Qatar Co. for Meat & Livestock Trading 15.60 12.56 6.14 1.24
Qatar Oman Investment co. 9.60 8.87 37.27 1.08
Qatar Real Estate Investment co. 27.80 22.28 9.18 1.25
Salam International Invest. Limited 10.00 14.60 7.43 0.69
Qatar Technical Inspection co. 31.50 12.40 19.06 2.54
Consumer Services Sector 14.85 11.56 2.01
Ahli Bank 44.10 25.83 6.34 1.71
Al Khalij Commercial Bank 10.20 6.39 H 1.60
The Commercial Bank of Qatar 74.40 46.75 8.59 1.59
Doha Bank 38.90 25.71 7.02 1.51
First Finance Co. 24.90 14.98 10.95 1.66
Qatar International Islamic Bank 44.10 22.18 11.62 1.99
Qatar Islamic Bank 74.00 33.85 9.95 2.19
Qatar National Bank 117.10 55.22 9.41 2.12
Masraf Al Rayan 12.10 7.05 9.98 1.72
Doha Insurance co. 18.50 17.55 8.64 1.05
Qatar Gen. Insurance & Reinsurance co. 56.00 38.09 6.74 1.47
Qatar Islamic Insurance co. 30.60 15.60 8.04 1.96
Al Khaleej Insurance & Reinsurance co. 30.50 26.54 5.41 1.15
Qatar Insurance co. 54.20 29.92 8.41 1.81
Dlala Brokerage & Invest. Holding co. 17.50 9.95 9.23 1.76
Islamic Financial Securities co. 39.20 9.46 11.50 4.14
Financial Sector 20.73 9.05 1.85
Qatari German Co. for Medical Devices 11.00 18.32 N/A 0.60
Medicare Group 9.90 27.21 23.36 0.36
Health Care Sector 24.62 23.36 0.42
Qatar National Cement co. 91.00 35.23 9.51 2.58
Gulf Holding co. 19.20 10.79 H 1.78
Qatar Industrial Manufacturing co. 39.10 28.38 5.87 1.38
Industries Qatar 108.10 35.57 8.79 3.04
United Development co. 37.40 22.26 6.56 1.68
Zad Holding co. 44.50 39.70 7.51 1.12
Qatar Navigation 67.50 62.11 9.35 1.09
Qatar Shipping co. 33.60 30.00 9.37 1.12
Gulf Warehousing co. 19.00 11.65 N/A 1.63
Industrial Sector 24.94 8.66 2.36
Qatar Telecom (Qtel) 115.90 71.74 7.21 1.62
Telecommunications Sector 71.74 7.21 1.62
Qatar Electricity & Water co. 95.20 14.48 12.40 6.58
Qatar Fuel (WOQOD) 167.60 78.40 3.89 2.14
Utilities Sector 29.23 7.06 3.83
Market 21.77 8.90 2.05
* P/E Ratio was calculated by dividing market value by net profit (latest four quarters) * P/B Ratio was calculated by dividing market value by shareholders right
*N/A = P/E Ration is negative *H = P/E Ratio is higher than 50
The Doha Securities Market (DSM) showed a mixed performance during the week starting May 17, 2009 (5 trading days). The official DSM 20 Index increased by 4.11% over previous week's closing and finished the week at 6,809.15 points last Thursday, while ALSHALL's index (cap weighted) closed at 977.59 points, increasing by 2.22 % compared to previous week's closing (956.36). ALSHALL index is produced by AlShall Economic Services Q.s.c., a Qatar-based consulting company.
Total value of trade during the 5 working days was QR
2,666,033,467. This represents a decrease of -37.90% compared to the value of the previous week (QR 4,292,855,008). The Financial sector led the trading, accounting for 40.15% of the total trading value, followed by the Consumer Services sector which accounted for 28.24%, while the Industrial sector represented 26.98% of the total trading value.
The number of shares
traded dropped to 101,964,170 with a daily average of 20,392,834 shares; this was lower by -42.91% as compared to the previous week’s number of shares (178,592,477).
The number of deals fell down to 45,729 with a daily
average of 9,146 which is
lower by -38.19% as compared to the previous week's number of deals (73,983).
The top five leading companies in terms of value traded during the week were: Barwa Real Estate co., which represented 15.9% of the total value traded, followed by Masraf Al Rayan (12.5%), Industries Qatar (9.9%), Qatar Gas Transport Co. Limited (Nakilat) (7.8%), and United Development co. (6.3%). The most active
companies in terms of volume traded were, Masraf Al Rayan which represented 27.4% of total volume traded, followed by Barwa Real Estate co. (12.0%), Al Khalij Commercial Bank (9.5%), Qatar Gas Transport Co. Limited (Nakilat) (8.4%) and,
finally United Development co. (4.7%).
32 stocks of a total 43 listed companies stocks advanced and ended the
week at higher prices than their previous week last trading day’s prices, while 6 stocks declined and ended at lower prices than the previous week last trading day's prices and 5 stocks remained unchanged.
ALSHALL Economic Services Q.S.C is a Qatar-based advisory firm providing different economic, business and corporate finance advisory services to local institutions. It is associated to ALSHALL Investment Co, a financial institution in Kuwait.
The following tables summarize last week’s performance of the DSM: ALSHALL INDEX – WEEK 21 (2009) –May 17, 2009.
Description Week of Week of Diff
10-May-09 17-May-09 %
Working Days 5 5
ALSHALL Index at End of Week 956.36 977.59 2.22%
DSM 20 Index at End of Week 6,540.32 6,809.15 4.11%
Value Traded (QR) 4,292,855,008 2,666,033,467 -37.90%
Daily Average (QR) 858,571,002 533,206,693 -37.90%
Volume Trading (Shares) 178,592,477 101,964,170 -42.91%
Daily Average (Shares) 35,718,495 20,392,834 -42.91%
Transactions 73,983 45,729 -38.19%
Daily Average 14,797 9,146 -38.19%
Most Active Sectors & Companies For Week 21
Description Value Traded During Week % of Total Market
Sectors QR %
Financial Sector 1,070,355,460.30 40.15%
Consumer Services Sector 752,953,154.75 28.24%
Industrial Sector 719,372,500.80 26.98%
Description Value Traded During Week % of Total Market
Companies QR %
Barwa Real Estate co. 422,616,528.10 15.85%
Masraf Al Rayan 334,160,525.10 12.53%
Industries Qatar 265,095,019.10 9.94%
Qatar Gas Transport Co. Limited (Nakilat) 208,156,119.50 7.81%
United Development co. 167,716,148.20 6.29%
Total 1,397,744,340 52.43%
Description 14-May-2009 WEEK 20 21-May-2009 WEEK 21
Increased Value (# of Companies) 22 32 Decreased Value (# of Companies) 21 6 Unchanged Value (# of Companies) 0 5
Total Companies 43 43
ALSHALL INDEX Close Price
Company Name Thursday Thursday Weekly Diff Close Diff Yearly
# 21-May-09 14-May-09 % 2008 %
1 Aamal Company 29.20 30.70 -4.89% 41.00 -28.78%
2 Barwa Real Estate co. 36.50 32.10 13.71% 30.30 20.46%
3 Qatar Cinema & Film Dist. co. 37.10 37.10 0.00% 49.90 -25.65%
4 Ezdan Real Estate co. 31.50 32.00 -1.56% 27.00 16.67%
5 Gulf International Services 26.80 26.80 0.00% 22.50 19.11%
6 National Leasing Holding co. 18.50 17.60 5.11% 18.10 2.21%
7 Mannai Corporation 125.00 125.00 0.00% 120.30 3.91%
8 Qatar Meat & Livestock co. 15.60 15.60 0.00% 8.65 80.35%
9 Qatar & Oman Investment co. 9.60 9.25 3.78% 8.55 12.28%
10 Qatar Real Estate Investment co. 27.80 25.70 8.17% 29.10 -4.47%
11 Salam International co. 10.00 9.90 1.01% 11.00 -9.09%
12 Qatar Technical Inspection co. 31.50 30.30 3.96% 22.20 41.89%
Consumer Services Sector Index 1,853.25 1,829.04 1.32% 1,833.37 1.08%
13 Ahli Bank 44.10 43.70 0.92% 43.50 1.38%
14 Al Khalij Commercial Bank 10.20 8.95 13.97% 7.15 42.66%
15 Commercial Bank 74.40 71.20 4.49% 88.30 -15.74%
16 Doha Bank 38.90 37.60 3.46% 42.00 -7.38%
17 First Finance 24.90 24.80 0.40% 24.70 0.81%
18 Qatar International Islamic Bank 44.10 44.00 0.23% 58.60 -24.74%
19 Qatar Islamic Bank 74.00 73.30 0.95% 82.80 -10.63%
20 Qatar National Bank 117.10 111.60 4.93% 171.20 -31.60%
21 Masraf Al Rayan 12.10 12.00 0.83% 11.00 10.00%
22 Doha Insurance co. 18.50 18.40 0.54% 20.60 -10.19%
23 Qatar General Insurance & Reinsurance co. 56.00 54.50 2.75% 114.10 -50.92%
24 Qatar Islamic Insurance co. 30.60 30.30 0.99% 37.00 -17.30%
25 Al Khaleej Insurance & Reinsurance co. 30.50 27.60 10.51% 37.10 -17.79%
26 Qatar Insurance co. 54.20 51.50 5.24% 90.20 -39.91%
27 Dlala Brokerage & Investment Holding co. 17.50 17.40 0.57% 20.50 -14.63%
28 Islamic Financial Securities co. 39.20 40.00 -2.00% 48.00 -18.33%
Financial Sector Index 720.10 693.07 3.90% 781.04 -7.80%
29 Qatari German for Medical Devices 11.00 9.70 13.40% 11.50 -4.35%
30 Medicare Group 9.90 9.30 6.45% 9.05 9.39%
Health Care Sector Index 233.84 229.05 2.09% 232.03 0.78%
31 Qatar National Cement co. 91.00 87.00 4.60% 99.70 -8.73%
32 Gulf Holding co. 19.20 18.80 2.13% 17.40 10.34%
33 Qatar Industrial Manufacturing co. 39.10 39.10 0.00% 36.70 6.54%
34 Industries Qatar 108.10 107.50 0.56% 100.60 7.46%
35 United Development co. 37.40 33.00 13.33% 35.30 5.95%
36 Zad Holding co. 44.50 44.80 -0.67% 49.00 -9.18%
37 Qatar Gas Transport Co. Limited (Nakilat) 24.50 23.90 2.51% 21.60 13.43%
38 Qatar Navigation 67.50 69.70 -3.16% 72.20 -6.51%
39 Qatar Shipping co. 33.60 32.10 4.67% 37.50 -10.40%
Industrial Sector Index 1,297.18 1,278.26 1.48% 1,202.57 7.87%
41 Qatar Telecom (Qtel) 115.90 117.20 -1.11% 109.50 5.84%
Telecommunications Sector Index 548.82 554.97 -1.11% 518.51 5.84%
42 Qatar Electricity & Water co. 95.20 93.80 1.49% 111.50 -14.62%
43 Qatar Fuel (WOQOD) 167.60 165.20 1.45% 130.10 28.82%
Utilities Sector Index 2,140.67 2,109.48 1.48% 2,214.98 -3.35%
ALSHALL General Index 977.59 956.36 2.22% 982.13 -0.46%
Company Price Price
% Change
Major Gainers Week of 17/05/09 21-May-09 14-May-09
Al Khalij Commercial Bank 10.20 8.95 13.97%
Barwa Real Estate co. 36.50 32.10 13.71%
Qatari German for Medical Devices 11.00 9.70 13.40%
United Development co. 37.40 33.00 13.33%
Al Khaleej Insurance & Reinsurance co. 30.50 27.60 10.51%
Major Losers Week of 17/05/09
Aamal Company 29.20 30.70 -4.89%
Qatar Navigation 67.50 69.70 -3.16%
Islamic Financial Securities co. 39.20 40.00 -2.00%
Ezdan Real Estate co. 31.50 32.00 -1.56%
Qatar Telecommunication (Qtel) 115.90 117.20 -1.11%
Disclaimer:
All analyses appearing in our weekly report do not in any way constitute an offer or recommendation to invest in any of the listed securities. ALSHALL hereby disclaims any responsibility of any direct or indirect claim resulting from using this report.
ﺔﻴﻟوﺆﺴﻣ ءﻼﺧإ : ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻤﻟا قاروﻸﻟ ﺔﺣوﺪﻟا قﻮﺴﻟ ﻲﻋﻮﺒﺳﻷا لﺎﺸﻟا ﺮﻳﺮﻘﺗ ﻲﻓ ةدراﻮﻟا تﺎﻧﺎﻴﺒﻟا ﺔﻓﺎآ نإ قﻮﺴﻟا ﻲﻓ ةﺪﻴﻘﻤﻟا ﻢﻬﺳﻷا ﻦﻣ يأ ﻲﻓ رﺎﻤﺜﺘﺳﻺﻟ ﺔﻴﺻﻮﺗ وأ ﺎﺿﺮﻋ ﺎﻬﻨﻣ يأ ﺮﺒﺘﻌﻳﻻ . ﺔﻳأ وأ ةﺮﺷﺎﺒﻣ ﺮﻴﻏ وأ ةﺮﺷﺎﺒﻣ راﺮﺿأ ﺔﻳأ ﻦﻋ ﺎﻬﺘﻴﻟوﺆﺴﻣ لﺎﺸﻟا ﺔآﺮﺷ ﻲﻠﺨﺗ ﺎﻤآ أ ﺞﺘﻨﺗ تﺎﺒﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺮﻳﺮﻘﺘﻟا اﺬه ماﺪﺨﺘﺳا ﻦﻋ ﺄﺸﻨﺗ و .
