Rapidly Growing Cities and their impact on Solid Waste Management

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Rapidly Growing Cities and their

impact on Solid Waste Management

Professor David C Wilson

Independent Waste & Resource

Management Consultant

Imperial College London

ISWA Presidential Advisory Committee,

7-8 June 2013, Vienna

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My brief for this presentation

1. Population development

2. Rural - urban migration

3. Regional changes

4. Forecasting future waste generation

PART 2: Implications for the waste sector

5. Current status/ recent progress of

SWM in developing countries

6. Future priorities

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Estimated and projected world population

(billions, 1950-2100)

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York

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Estimated and projected world population

by region

(medium variant, billions, 1950-2100)

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Distribution

of world

population

(medium

variant)

(6)

Population change by region 2010-2100)

(7)

Population of Europe and Africa

Note:

this medium

variant

projection

assumes a

significant fall

in fertility rates

in Africa

(8)

Population also migrating to cities

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division:

World Urbanization Prospects, the 2011 Revision. New York, 2012

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Urban growth mainly in Asia and Africa

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Distribution of world urban population

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Percentage of urban population and

location of large cities, 1960

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Percentage of urban population and

location of large cities, 1980

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Percentage of urban population and

location of large cities, 2011

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Percentage of urban population and

location of large cities, 2025

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Total population by city size class

(millions)

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The World’s largest 50 cities: 2010 - 2100

Region

2010

2025

2050

2075

2100

Europe

4

2

0 North America

6

3

1 Japan

2

1 Latin America

9

6

4 Asis (excluding Japan)

23

16 Middle East –

North Africa

4

5

3 Sub-Saharan Africa

2

9

25 Range of populations

(million)

6-36

7-36

16-42 23-58

17-88

Numbers of megacities

21

27

50

70

83 Source: current draft paper by Dan Hoornweg and Perinaz Bhada-Tata:

‘Solid waste in the World’s 100 largest cities in the 20

th

_century

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Waste per capita increases with income level

High-income

countries:

• Waste per capita

doubled since 1980

• Perform worst

Source: Wilson, D.C., Rodic L., Scheinberg, A., Velis, C.A. and Alabaster, G. (2012). Comparative analysis of solid waste management in 20 cities.

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Predicted decreases in waste generation

per capita at high levels of GNI/Capita

Source: current draft paper by Dan Hoornweg and Perinaz Bhada-Tata:

‘Solid waste in the World’s 100 largest cities in the 20

th

_century

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Waste Generation by Region (Current)

1.3 billion tonnes/yr MSW

OECD generates ~ 50% world’s waste – “outlier” China produces 70% of EAP region waste

Source: Dan Hoornweg: data from ‘What a Waste’, 2012, World Bank

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Waste Generation by Region (now & 2025)

2.2 billion tonnes/yr MSW (69% increase)

Big growth in EAP, SAR, AFR; OECD not outlier

* Bubble size proportional to total urban population

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Total solid

waste quantities

and composition

by income level,

now and 2025

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Waste

composition

Affected by:

• Geography:

building

materials, ash content (HH

heating), green waste.

• Climate:

Ulan Bator,

Mongolia ash is 60% of the

MSW in winter, 20% in

summer.

• Income:

Wealthier nations

have more complex waste,

lower organic content

• Culture:

differences in food

consumed (eg, packaged or

fresh), electronic equipment

used changes nature of

waste

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Current 2025 Current 2025 Current 2025 Current 2025 Low income Lower Middle

income Upper Middle income High income

Waste composition

Others Metal Glass Plastic Paper Organic

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CURRENT AND FUTURE PRIORITIES

FOR SWM AROUND THE WORLD

Photo credits: © Jeroen Ijgosse; David C Wilson;, Mansoor Ali

CBO collection in

Ouagadougou, Burkina

Faso

Modern landfill in

Hong Kong

Selling recycled bottles,

Dhaka

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Simplified ISWM analytical framework

Physical

Public health –

Collection

Inclusivity – User and

Provider

Financial

Sustainability

3Rs – Reduce,

Reuse, Recycle

Sound

Institutions

& Pro-active

Policies

Governance

Environment

– Disposal

© David Wilson, Ljiljana Rodic, Costas Velis

Concept: Scheinberg A, Wilson D.C.

and Rodic L. (2010). Solid Waste Management

in the World’s Cities. Earthscan for UN-Habitat

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Waste Management Drivers in what is

now the developed world: 1020-2020

1020

1850

1970

1990

2000

Resource

value

Public Health

- collection

Climate change

Environment

- disposal

© DCW

2010

Resource

management

Rediscover

recycling

2020

Recent drivers

in the ‘North’

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Key Drivers in the developing world

1020

1850

1970

1990

2000

Resource

value

Public Health

- collection

Environment

- disposal

© DCW

2010

2020

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1 st

driver: Public Health – Focus on Collection

Waste blocking

a storm drain.

Bamako, Mali

Burning uncollected waste, Venezuela

Direct

: Increased incidence of sickness

among children living in households

without a waste collection service:

Dengue fever clean-up campaign, Quezon City

Photo credits clockwise from top left: © Jeroen Ijgosse; Erica Trauba; SWAPP

Data from Demographic and Health surveys:

o

Diarrhoea – rate x 2 or more

o

Acute respiratory infections – rate x 6

Indirect

:

water-borne disease via

blocked drains and

flooding

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Public health – collection coverage

GNI per capita (000' $)

C o lle c ti o n / s w e e p in g c o v e ra g e ( % ) Income level High Upper-middle Lower-middle Low 1 500 700 900 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 30000 50000 0% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

World Bank website: 30-60% in low & middle income countries

Wilson, D.C., Rodic L., Scheinberg, A., Velis, C.A. and Alabaster, G. (2012). Comparative analysis of solid waste management in 20 cities.

Waste Management & Research, 30, 237-254.

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2 nd

driver:

Environment –

Focus on

phasing out

open dumps

Top: On Nooch,

Bangkok, 1983

Bottom: Jam Chakro,

Karachi, 2001

Photos: David C Wilson; Jonathan Rouse

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Environmental control – controlled disposal

Income Level

State of the art

_disposal

Simple

controlled

disposal

Uncontrolled

Disposal

High

100%

0%

Upper-middle

75%

20%

5%

Lower-middle

61%

32%

7%

Low

29%

24%

47%

Substantial progress has been made, particularly in middle-income countries

Data source: Scheinberg A, Wilson D.C. and Rodic L. (2010). Solid Waste

Management in the World’s Cities. Published for UN-Habitat by Earthscan, London

1990s baseline: open dumping still dominant

in middle and low-income countries

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3rd Driver - Resource value – 3Rs

Recycling rates - formal vs informal

Income

Level

Average

%

Formal

%

Informal

%

High

₅₄

₀

Upper-middle

15

1

15 Lower-middle

27

11

16 Low

₂₇

1 ₂₆

Data source: Scheinberg A, Wilson D.C. and Rodic L. (2010).

Solid Waste Management in the World’s Cities. Published for UN-Habitat by Earthscan, London

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Major opportunity for win-win solutions through

partnership with the informal recycling sector

• Build recycling rates

• Move towards zero waste

• Improve livelihoods

• Improve working

conditions

• Save the city money

Itinerant waste buyer in Brazil

Sorting recycled plastics in Delhi

Photo credits: © Jeroen Ijgosse, Enrico Fabian

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A. Solid Waste

Management

interface

B. Materials &

value chain

interface

C. Social interface

O. Organisation &

empowerment

(underpinning

basis

)

•Financial sustainability •Access to waste •Separate waste at source

Framework for selecting appropriate

interventions for informal sector integration

http://wmr.sagepub.com/content/30/9_suppl

.

C Velis, DC Wilson et al

.

An analytical framework and tool (‘InteRa’) for integrating the informal recycling sector in waste and resource management systems in developing countries. Waste

Management & Research September 2012 30: 43-66

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Rapid waste growth is inevitable if waste per

capita tracks economic growth

• Recycling is an easy

first option to reduce

waste for disposal

• Waste prevention is

also critical

• Waste prevention has

come onto agenda in

high-income countries

• Requires innovation in

developing countries

Source: Wilson, D.C., Rodic L., Scheinberg, A., Velis, C.A. and Alabaster, G. (2012). Comparative analysis of solid waste management in 20 cities.

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My only slide on waste prevention

in developing countries …

Unsold food from shops, which would otherwise be discarded as waste,

being sorted prior to distribution to some 15 000 people registered with

the social inclusion food bank in Belo Horizonte. Brazil

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Governance factors also important

Physical

Public health –

Collection

Inclusivity – User and

Provider

Financial

Sustainability

3Rs – Reduce,

Reuse, Recycle

Sound

Institutions

& Pro-active

Policies

Governance

Environment

– Disposal

Concept: Scheinberg A, Wilson D.C.

and Rodic L. (2010). Solid Waste Management

in the World’s Cities. Earthscan for UN-Habitat

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Good governance – partnering with ALL

stakeholders in an ISWM system

Municipality

Service users State Agencies Neighbouring municipalities Private service providers Informal sector Producer responsibility organisations NGOs / CBOs Development partners

(38)

Inclusivity: Focus in Particular on Users &

Service Providers

Municipality

Service

users

State Agencies Neighbouring municipalities Private service providers Informal sector Producer responsibility organisations NGOs / CBOs Development partners

(39)

Achieving user inclusivity

Citizens Committee

At Barangay level in

Quezon City, Philippines

Participative planning

Catia La Mar, Venezuela

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Collection

Photo credits clockwise from top left: © WASTE; Erica Trauba; Justin Lang, Zero Waste South Australia; Curepipe Municipality; Ljiljana Rodic

Some examples

of diversity in

service

provision

Door-to-door informal collector, India

Curepipe, Mauritius

Adelaide, Australia

Bicycle cart delivering to small

transfer station in Kunming

CBO collection in Bamako, Mali

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Financial sustainability - affordability

Income Level

City SW

budget per

capita

City SW budget per capita

as % of

GDP per capita

range

average

High

_$75

0.03 - 0.40%

0.17%

Upper-middle

_$33

0.14 - 1.19%

0.59%

Lower-middle

_$10

0.40 - 1.22%

0.69%

Low*

_$1.4

0.14 – 0.52%

0.32%

* Data only available for 3 of the 6 low-income cities (for 16 out of 20 cities in total)

Data source: Scheinberg A, Wilson D.C. and Rodic L. (2010). Solid Waste Management in the World’s Cities. Published for UN-Habitat by Earthscan, London

Affordability is a key issue in the lower income countries

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People are willing to pay –

when they can see the benefits

Raising awareness

amongst citizens to

pay for waste

collection goes

hand in hand with

collection service

improvement

Maputo,

Mozambique

Photo: Joachim Stretz

- which is often for primary collection,

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Sound Institutions, Proactive Policies

Adequacy of national

SWM framework

1. Legislation and regulations

2. Strategy/policy

3. Guidelines and

implementation procedures

4. National institution

responsible for SWM policy

5. Regulatory control

6. Extended producer

responsibility

Degree of local

institutional coherence

1. Organisational structure

2. Institutional capacity

3. City-wide strategy and plan

4. Availability and quality of

SWM data

5. Management, control and

supervision of service delivery

6. Inter-municipal co-operation

Source: D.C. Wilson et al. Benchmark Indicators for Integrated & Sustainable

Waste Management (ISWM). Paper to ISWA World Congress, 2013

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REFLECTIONS – IN SUMMARY

A diversity of approaches to separate collection for recycling

Kerbside sort in Rotterdam

Bring bins in Varna,

Bulgaria

Exchanging recyclables for

onions Siddhipur, Nepal

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69% increase in waste generation by 2025

- and the shifting regional focus of SWM challenges

‘Triple whammy’:

1. Rapidly growing

populations

2. Rural- urban migration

3. Waste per capita increases

with economic growth

* Bubble size proportional to total urban population

(46)

SWM priorities are defined by

the physical requirements …

• Extend collection

coverage

• Reduce waste

generation

• Build recycling rates

• Eliminate open

dumping

• Appropriate treatment

_{DCW’s version of the waste hierarchy}

(47)

Key questions for assessing when treatment is

appropriate

• Waste-to-energy

incinerators

– Will our waste burn

unsupported?

– Does it compete with

recycling for paper, plastics?

– Can we afford the gate fee?

– Does the environmental

regulator have the powers &

institutional capacity to

control and monitor the gas

cleaning?

Baoan incinerator in Shenzhen, China

Photo credit: Timothy O'Rourke for The New York Times

• Novel technology

• Is it proven?

• Beware the magic solution

• If it seems too good to be

true – then it probably is!

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..

but successful implementation requires

good governance & partnerships

• Partnerships

underpin all the

Habitat governance

factors

• Municipalities

cannot solve the

SWM problem

alone

Municipality

Service users State Agencies Neighbouring municipalities Private service providers Informal sector Producers NGOs / CBOs Development partners