Profiting From Favourites
By
Michelle Khang
http://backthishorse.com
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As you may already know there are many people who make a full time income from Horse Racing around the world. I am one of the lucky few who have managed to do this from my home.
First, some basics;
You’ll need a Betfair account to do this as you need to watch the price movement of the favourites of each race.
If you don’t have a Betfair account already, go to http://www.betfair.com to register for one.
To claim £ 20 free from Betfair, simply enter this promotional code 3NU36CDMJ
Your account will be credited with the free £ 20 after you have placed bets of £20.
I started my horse betting journey betting blindly on favourites about 2 years back. While I did make a lot of money very quickly it was rather stressful and very risky for my betting bank. You see, I used the progressive staking system and would bet to win a profit for every race and also recoup all my previous losses.
Sometimes I would get a winner within one or two races making it very lucrative to bet using progressive stakes. Then there were days when I had losing streaks of 8 – 9 races and these accumulated losses took its toll on my confidence and also my betting bank.
There was a day when I had a losing streak of 19 favourites… can your betting bank go that far? I had a pretty big betting bank of $7000 so I could go a very long way without a win but not many people can and you shouldn’t have to.
Even though I made a lot of money that way I found that there is a better way of selecting which favourites to bet on and which NOT to bet on.
What is a Favourite?
You’ll see that there are different prices/odds for every horse any given horse race in the world. Let me give you an example
You can see from the picture above that Choose To Dream is the horse with the lowest odds. This is considered the favourite.
All you need to do is look for these favourites. If there are two horses with odds that are very close to each other, they are considered co – favourites.
To use this system successfully, you be checking to price graphs of the 3 top favourites. This means that you will check the price graphs of the 3 horses in all races with the lowest odds.
You’ll need to click on the little graph icon next to the names of the horses. This is what the price graph looks like.
What we will be looking for is a significant drop in odds/price in the last 10 minutes before the race starts.
This drop is normally around 10% of the price. For example if a favourite was trading at 4.10 ten minutes before the start of the race and then drops to around 3.50 right before the start of the race. This would make it a qualifier for this system.
The price drops in such favourites, be it 1st fav or 2nd or 3rd fav indicates that
there is smart money pouring on to back this horse for a win. The perfect graph for such a horse looks like this.
Now all you need to do to make some steady profits from this type of horses to is have a good staking plan.
Staking Plan
You’ll need to use a variation of progressive betting to make you a nice 1% ROI for each horse that wins and to recoup the losses when some of them lose. And some of them do lose! You strike rate will be around 35% which is good enough to make you a nice monthly income. The only problem with this system is that you may not find that many bets in a day.
Many of you may have heard of progressive staking and may have already some experience using it. It is quite dangerous to use it blindly as sometimes the stakes can get really large and you could wipe out your betting bank VERY quickly, even in as little a 5 races if you are not careful.
I have loads of experience doing this, so believe me when I tell you that you really need to follow the instructions to the letter. I have seen 19 losses in a row before when I was betting on favourites and we will never know when
• You will target to win 1% of your betting bank for each cycle that you complete.
• You will try to complete the cycle within 5 races.
• If you fail to complete the cycle within 5 races, you will take all you ‘lost bets’ and divide it by 4 to be added to the target (1%) to be won back over the next 4 cycles.
It is really that simple; if you can follow these 3 rules you will never make a loss in any month.
Here is an example of how apply the rules to a typical race day.
I am going to walk you through what would have happened on 24th Feb had you backed the selections using progressive stakes. We'll assume that you have a betting bank of $1,000.
At 1% target profit per cycle your target is $10 profit for each time you hit a winner within 5 races.
This is your 1st cycle.
Bet on Lindberg stake of $4(min stake) at odds 5.90. LOSS Bet on Go Amwell stake of $4(min stake) at odds 4.90. LOSS Bet on Richards stake of $7.83 at odds 3.30. LOSS
Bet on Wizby stake of $7.60 at odds 4.40. LOSS Bet on Tikram stake of $14.53 at odds 3.30. WON
Your profit would have been $10 for this cycle and recovered all the losses from your first 4 bets.
2nd cycle
Bet on Charlie Bear stake of $4(min stake) at odds 4.40. LOSS Bet on Lough Berg stake of $4(min stake) at odds 4.40. WON
Total profit for 2nd cycle is $16 as you have bet more than is required at you need to follow the min stakes. You have also recovered the loss from the race 1 bet on Charlie Bear. Total profit so far is $26
3rd Cycle
Bet on Pavallion Bleu stake of $4 at odds 5.2. WON
You've made a $16.80 profit from your 3rd cycle. Total profit now $42.80 4th Cycle
Bet on Love On stake of $4 at odds 4.40. LOSS Bet on Lou stake of $11.86 at odds 2.18. WON
You just made another $10 from cycle number 4 and your total profit is now $52.80.
5th cycle
Bet on Sahf stake of $4 at odds 4.80. LOSS Bet on Snake stake of $4 at odds 5.17. LOSS Bet on Rustarix stake of $7.50 at odds 3.40. LOSS Bet on Prettilini stake of $7.29 at odds 4.50. LOSS Bet on Don't Even stake of $8.41 at odds 4.90. LOSS
Total lost for this cycle is $31.20. You'll now take $31.20 and divide it by 4 = $7.80 , add this amount to your target profit for the next 4 cycles.
Total profit is now down to $21.60 6th cycle for yesterday
Bet on Call Me stake of $6.98 at odds 3.55. WON
Total profit for this cycle is $17.80, your profit for yesterday was $39.40. You have to carry forward losses of $7.80 for the next 3 cycles.
As you can see it is really easy to use this method to make real good profit with progressive stakes.
bets’ as the have already made a profit for the day. So it is really up to you but you have the option to do both.
You can test the progressive stakes calculator to simulate the example above. When one of my selections becomes odds on, you can bet a nominal sum or just skip it. Never try to win a large sum with an odds on selection. If it is the first race in the cycle then it is alright to bet your usual stake.
his is all you need to know to make a consistent income from backing horses.
If you’d like a steady stream of daily winners (normally 3-6 winners a day), then take my special One Time Offer that you were forwarded to when you signed up to receive this system.
http://backthishorse.com/oto.html
Backing my selections will produce a 3-6% daily ROI for you which in equates to roughly 100% ROI a month.
Progressive Stakes Calculator
To make your life easy so that you don’t need to crack your head calculating stakes, just get my progressive stakes calculator at
http://stakecal.systemsthatprofit.com
NOTE: Only get this calculator if you are not signing up at Back This Horse. It comes free with the Back This Horse subscription.
If you have any questions, please visit my blog at
http://systemsthatprofit.com and click on contact me to send me your questions.
To your racing profits, Michelle Khang
