BP plc
(BP-NYSE)SUMMARY
SUMMARY DATA
Risk Level * Below Avg.,
Type of Stock Large-Value
Industry Oil-Intl Intgd
Zacks Industry Rank * 199 out of 267
Current Recommendation
NEUTRAL
Prior Recommendation Underperform Date of Last Change 09/16/2012
Current Price (10/17/14) $41.44 Target Price $44.00
We are maintaining our Neutral recommendation on BP Plc following its lukewarm second-quarter 2014 results. The company maintains a leading position among global offshore drillers. Its strategy of offloading non-core upstream properties will prove beneficial over time, while creating a portfolio with potentially stronger growth from a smaller base. The company s dividend hike is also a positive. Going forward, BP s natural gas operations will be helped by its position in the Woodford, Haynesville, Fayetteville, Eagle Ford and Utica shale plays, in association with its vast resource base and profound knowledge in unconventional gas. However, headwinds from a number of global macro issues are concerns going forward, including sovereign debt risks, defaults on sovereign credits and changes in U.S. policies.
52-Week High $53.38
52-Week Low $40.61
One-Year Return (%) 1.21
Beta 1.86
Average Daily Volume (sh) 7,292,463
Shares Outstanding (mil) 3,404 Market Capitalization ($mil) $141,080 Short Interest Ratio (days) 1.47 Institutional Ownership (%) 11
Insider Ownership (%) 1
Annual Cash Dividend $2.31
Dividend Yield (%) 5.57
5-Yr. Historical Growth Rates
Sales (%) 10.2
Earnings Per Share (%) -6.7
Dividend (%) -0.9
P/E using TTM EPS 9.7
P/E using 2014 Estimate 9.0 P/E using 2015 Estimate 8.5
Zacks Rank *: Short Term
1 3 months outlook 3 - Hold
* Definition / Disclosure on last page
ZACKS CONSENSUS ESTIMATES
Revenue Estimates (In millions of $)
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year
(Mar) (Jun) (Sep) (Dec) (Dec)
2012 96,698 A 94,892 A 92,121 A 98,860 A 382,571 A
2013 107,214A 94,711 A 98,203 A 95,096 A 395,224 A
2014 91,710 A 93,957 A 94,148 E 100,326 E 380,141 E
2015 96,754 E 99,125 E 387,867 E Earnings Per Share Estimates
(EPS is operating earnings before non-recurring items, but including employee stock options expenses)
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year
(Mar) (Jun) (Sep) (Dec) (Dec)
2012 $1.50 A $1.12 A $1.58 A $1.27 A $5.47 A
2013 $1.32 A $0.86 A $1.17 A $0.90 A $4.25 A
2014 $1.04 A $1.18 A $0.98 E $1.03 E $4.61 E
2015 $0.94 E $1.01 E $4.86 E
Projected EPS Growth - Next 5 Years % 6
OVERVIEW
London, England-based BP plc (BP) is one of the world's major energy companies, providing its customers with fuel for transportation, energy for heat and light, retail services and petrochemical products. Previously, the company used to report earnings through three segments: Exploration and Production, Refining and Marketing, and Other Businesses and Corporate.
The Exploration and Production segment engages in oil and natural gas exploration, development, and production; and marketing and trading of natural gas liquids, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and gas and power. It has exploration and production activities in the United States, the United Kingdom, Angola, Azerbaijan, Canada, Egypt, the Russian Federation, and Trinidad and Tobago, as well as in the Asia-Pacific, Latin America, and the Middle East. This segment also owns and manages crude oil and natural gas pipelines; processing and export terminals; and LNG processing facilities and transportation.
The Refining and Marketing segment engages in the supply and trade, refining, marketing, and transportation of crude oil, petroleum, and chemical products to wholesale and retail customers under the Amoco and BP brands.
The Other Businesses and Corporate segment produces and markets rolled aluminum products. It also generates energy through wind, solar, biofuel, hydrogen and gas-fired sources. BP has a joint development agreement with Martek Biosciences Corp. to work on the production of microbial oils for biofuel applications.
Recently, following the completion of sale and purchase agreements with Rosneft and Rosneftegaz on Mar 21, 2013, BP s investment (19.75% interest) in Rosneft was reported as a separate operating segment under IFRS.
REASONS TO BUY
The company is offloading its non-core upstream properties while creating a portfolio with potentially stronger growth from a smaller base. BP has already sold the refinery in Carson, California and Texas City, Texas refineries, which hold half of its U.S. capacity. It has retained three refineries - Cherry Point, Toledo (co-owned with Husky Energy), and Whiting - with the greatest competitive advantage, which is expected to improve returns. The company also continues to expect its U.S refining system to deliver a superior performance as it wraps up its re-positioning after the sale of Texas City and Carson and the upgrade at Whiting. BP expects to divest an additional $10 billion of assets by the end of 2015. Additionally, the company expects to see increased exposure to heavy crude differentials in the U.S. owing to ramped up heavy crude processing at the Whiting refinery. The U.K. giant expects its deepwater segment to form an integral part of its business goal as it is the largest leaseholder in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) region, with stakes in more than 650 leases. In the deepwater GoM region, currently BP has nine rigs drilling this year, up from five rigs in recent years. The company plans to strengthen its Gulf operations and its major activities include development wells at Thunder Horse and Atlantis and water injection at Thunder Horse, as well as start-ups in the Na Kika Phase 3, Mars B and Atlantis. Beyond 2015, the activities will be driven by the Thunder Horse expansion and project start-ups in Atlantis 2-B and Mad Dog Phase 2.
BP s upstream margins are likely to be driven by its four main upstream profit centers Angola, Azerbaijan, the North Sea and the GoM. Since the beginning of 2014, BP has brought online three
going forward. For 2014, the company expects refining margins to improve from the 2013 level due to turnaround activity.
BP has a strong pipeline of projects. Five project start-ups Na Kika 3, Kinnoull, CLOV, Sunrise 1 and Mars B are expected in 2014. Altogether, BP has about 50 major assignments through the decade. Eleven of these involve more than $10 billion in total cost. BP s organic capital expenditure is estimated at $24 billion to $27 billion annually between 2014 until the end of the decade, while offloading non-core $2 $3 billion worth of assets annually. BP reiterated its target of increasing operated cash flow by over 50% to 2014.
REASONS TO SELL
BP s earnings in Downstream experienced a decline due to weaker refining margins (particularly in the U.S.) as well as the absence of earnings from the divested Texas City and Carson refineries. Total production also fell on an annualized basis mainly due to divestments and the effects of the Abu Dhabi onshore concession expiry in January. Thus, the results raise concerns with respect to its performance in the coming years.
BP projected full-year 2014 production level to be lower than 2013 due to the expiry of the Abu Dhabi onshore concession and the effect of divestments. The company announced divestitures of several non-core assets that comprise interests in many North Sea oil and gas fields and in its Yacheng gas field in the South China Sea. The company has a fund-raising objective of about $10 billion by the end of 2015. Since the start of 2010, BP s asset sale program accounted for about 16% of its 2010 production (excluding TNK-BP) and around $5 billion of pre-tax earnings and $5 billion of after-tax operating cash flow.
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has barred BP from making fresh contracts with the federal government as the company was unable to demonstrate proper business integrity with regard to the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill. The continuation of such suspension for a longer period may affect the company s operations and earnings. Further, the settlement from the legal proceedings relating to the Gulf oil spill remains an overhang on the company s operations.
RECENT NEWS
BP Misses Q2 Earnings Amid Low Refining, Maintains Dividend
Jul 29, 2014
British energy giant, BP plc reported second-quarter 2014 adjusted earnings of $1.18 per American Depositary Share (ADS) on a replacement cost basis, excluding non-operating items. The bottom line fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.20 but improved from the year-ago earnings of $0.86. A downcast refining environment was responsible for the earnings miss.
BP's total revenue increased marginally to $95,827 million in the quarter from the year-ago level of $95,704 million.
Maintains Dividend
BP maintained its quarterly dividend of 58.5 cents per ADS. The dividend would be paid on Sep19 to ADS holders as of Aug 8.
Production and Price Realization
Total production of 2.106 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (MMBoe/d) was down 6% year over year.
The company sold liquids for $96.90 per barrel in the second quarter (versus $94.92 in the year-earlier quarter) and natural gas for $5.67 per thousand cubic feet (versus $5.37). Overall price realization rose to $64.90 per Boe from the year-ago level of $61.27 per Boe.
Bolstered by higher price realizations and volume, the Upstream segment experienced nearly an 8.6% year-over-year increase in adjusted underlying profit.
Downstream
The Downstream segmental profit fell to $733 million from $1,201 million in the year-ago quarter. The result reflects the impact of a weak petrochemicals business along with a downcast refining environment. Refining Marker Margin decreased to $15.4 per barrel from $19.1 in the second quarter of 2013. Total refinery throughput decreased to 1,652 thousand barrels per day (MB/d) from 1,708 MB/d in the year-earlier period. Refining availability was 95.3%, flat year over year.
Rosneft
The Rosneft segment includes equity-accounted earnings from associates, representing BP s stake in the former. The segment posted profits of $1,024.0 million in the reported quarter.
Financials
BP's net debt was $24,399 million at the end of the second quarter compared with $18,217 million a year ago. Net debt-to-capitalization ratio was 15.5% versus 12.3% in the second quarter of 2013. In the reported quarter, BP's total capex was $5,613 million.
Company Outlook
BP expects third-quarter production to be lower than the second quarter primarily due to planned major turnaround activity, mainly in the higher-margin Alaska and Gulf of Mexico regions. However, fuel margins are expected to improve on the back of a lower level of turnarounds. This would be offset by weak petrochemical margins.
VALUATION
We consider the company s strategy of offloading its non-core upstream properties and its focus on upstream activity as favorable factors.BP remains confident about the 15 major project start-ups by 2014 and the planned commissioning of the Whiting refinery upgrade. Its confidence is based on organic capital expenditure of $24 billion to $27 billion annually between 2014 and the end of the decade. This will be accompanied by the planned asset sale program with $2 $3 billion on average annually.
The U.K. giant expects its deepwater segment to form an integral part for attaining its business strategy.
Management remains positive on the company s growth profile and looks forward to recovery, as well as
BP s current trailing 12-month earnings multiple is 9.5X, compared with the 9.7X industry average and 17.1X for the S&P 500. Over the last five years, shares of BP have traded in a range of 4.1X to 17.6X trailing 12-month earnings.
Nevertheless, the British oil giant faces considerable risks from a decline in natural gas processing margins and drops in domestic oil, gas drilling and end market demand, which could lower the growth rate. Based on the above factors, we are maintaining our recommendation on BP at Neutral. Our $44.00 target price represents 9.5x 2014 EPADS.
Key Indicators
P/E F1 P/E F2 Est. 5-Yr EPS Gr% P/CF (TTM) P/E (TTM) P/E 5-Yr High (TTM) P/E 5-Yr Low (TTM) BP plc (BP) 8.8 8.3 5.5 5.1 9.5 17.6 4.1Industry Average 8.9 8.4 7.4 5.8 9.7 51.0 5.5 S&P 500 15.9 14.9 10.7 14.7 17.1 27.7 12.0
ExxonMobil Corp (XOM) 11.9 12.3 5.1 8.0 11.5 17.5 8.8 Royal Dutch Shell-A (RDS.A) 8.9 9.2 5.5 5.2 10.2 17.3 6.9 PetroChina Co. Ltd. (PTR) 9.5 8.8 8.1 4.7 10.3 16.9 8.4
Total SA (TOT) 9.3 8.8 5.6 4.5 9.2 13.0 6.2
TTM is trailing 12 months; F1 is 2014 and F2 is 2015, CF is operating cash flow P/B Last Qtr. P/B 5-Yr High P/B 5-Yr Low ROE (TTM) D/E Last Qtr. Div Yield Last Qtr. EV/EBITDA (TTM) BP plc (BP) 1.1 1.8 1.0 10.2 0.3 5.3 3.6
Industry Average 1.1 1.1 1.1 -56.3 0.3 2.8 4.3 S&P 500 4.6 9.8 3.2 23.3 0.0
Earnings Surprise and Estimate Revision History
DISCLOSURES & DEFINITIONS
The analysts contributing to this report do not hold any shares of BP. The EPS and revenue forecasts are the Zacks Consensus estimates. Additionally, the analysts contributing to this report certify that the views expressed herein accurately reflect the analysts personal views as to the subject securities and issuers. Zacks certifies that no part of the analysts compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendation or views expressed by the analyst in the report. Additional information on the securities mentioned in this report is available upon request. This report is based on data obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to accuracy and does not purport to be complete. Because of individual objectives, the report should not be construed as advice designed to meet the particular investment needs of any investor. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change. This report is not to be construed as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities herein mentioned. Zacks or its officers, employees or customers may have a position long or short in the securities mentioned and buy or sell the securities from time to time. Zacks uses the following rating system for the securities it covers. Outperform- Zacks expects that the subject company will outperform the broader U.S. equity market over the next six to twelve months. Neutral- Zacks expects that the company will perform in line with the broader U.S. equity market over the next six to twelve months. Underperform- Zacks expects the company will under perform the broader U.S. Equity market over the next six to twelve months. The current distribution of Zacks Ratings is as follows on the 1126 companies covered: Outperform - 16.0%, Neutral - 78.2%, Underperform 5.6%. Data is as of midnight on the business day immediately prior to this publication.
Our recommendation for each stock is closely linked to the Zacks Rank, which results from a proprietary quantitative model using trends in earnings estimate revisions. This model is proven most effective for judging the timeliness of a stock over the next 1 to 3 months. The model assigns each stock a rank from 1 through 5. Zacks Rank 1 = Strong Buy. Zacks Rank 2 = Buy. Zacks Rank 3 = Hold. Zacks Rank 4 = Sell. Zacks Rank 5 = Strong Sell. We also provide a Zacks Industry Rank for each company which provides an idea of the near-term attractiveness of a company s industry group. We have 264 industry groups in total. Thus, the Zacks Industry Rank is a number between 1 and 264. In terms of investment attractiveness, the higher the rank the better. Historically, the top half of the industries has outperformed the general market. In determining Risk Level, we rely on a proprietary quantitative model that divides the entire universe of stocks into five groups, based on each stock s historical price volatility. The first group has stocks with the lowest values and are deemed Low Risk, while the 5th group has the highest values and are designated High Risk. Designations of Below-Average Risk, Average Risk, and Above-Average Risk correspond to the second, third, and fourth groups of stocks, respectively.
