Linux, Open Source, and IBM: The Next Decade

© 2008 IBM Corporation

Linux, Open Source, and IBM:

The Next Decade

Bob Sutor

2008

Today's talk

 In order to set the context for the next ten years, we'll

start by looking back over the last decade.

 From there we'll examine some lessons that IBM has

learned through our involvement with free and open source software.

 Our discussion of the future will be based on some

predictions for what will happen around technology, application areas, and intellectual property.

2000 Wall Street

Journal ad

The late 1990s were key open source years for IBM

 Sharing technology via IBM alphaWorks led

naturally to getting involved with open source.

 The Secure Mailer, now known as Postfix, was

released as open source from IBM Research.

 We released the Jikes Java compiler to open

The late 1990s were key open source years for IBM

 Rather than continuing to develop our own

implementations, we adopted the Apache http server for Websphere.

 The Apache Xerces XML parser helped accelerate

the adoption of that standard leading to the start of web services and the SOA movement today.

 We started learning about open communities and

What were some of the questions and risks?

 Could we put Linux on all our hardware?

 Could we put our middleware software on Linux?

 Would the Linux community grow and stay involved?

 Would other major corporations take part?

 Would the community stay together?

 Would the quality be high enough for the enterprise?

 Would Linux skills multiply throughout the IT world?

IBM and Linux

Linux Kernel & Subsystem Development

 Kernel Base Architecture Support  GNU  Security  Systems Management  RAS  Virtualization  Special Projects

 Filesystems, and more...

Expanding the Open Source Ecosystem

 Apache & Apache Projects  Eclipse

 Mozilla Firefox  OpenOffice.org  PHP

 Samba, and more...

Foster and Protect the Ecosystem

 Software Freedom Law Center  Free Software Foundation (FSF)  Open Invention Network, and more...

Promoting Open Standards & Community Collaboration

 The Linux Foundation  Linux Standards Base

 Common Criteria certification

 Open Software Initiative, and more...

 IBM has been an active participant in Linux since 1999,  is one of the leading commercial contributors to Linux, and  has over 600 full-time developers working on Linux and

open source.

http://linux-foundation.org/publications/Who_Writes_Linux.pdf

Who Has Contributed to Linux?

Some of the lessons learned

communities excelled at solving different kinds of problems.

 We constantly needed to

understand and strive to be good citizens of the various

communities associated with free and open source software.

 We're not just talking about sharing code, there are many facets to driving adoption of open source.

Some of the lessons learned

is essential to balance cross business unit strategies and risk.

 Both friends and foes of open source are formidable

competitors, but this drives customer value and

innovation.

 There is more to a strategy involving “open” than just open source. Open standards Open architecture Open source Community Innovation

Prediction 1:

“Green” will drive significant initiatives in open source

 Linux will help reduce energy consumption

through server consolidation, virtualization, load balancing and more efficient resources

management.

 Customers will leverage the same Linux OS but

choose the hardware platform with the optimal performance, consolidation and energy savings characteristics.

 Some of the most significant application

innovations will be driven by solving problems in this area.

Linux will not be replaced

 No new open source operating system will “come out of

left field” and replace Linux.

 No existing open source operating system will take over

Linux's pre-eminent position.

 Linux will continue to adapt, evolve, and absorb to solve

Prediction 3:

Linux mindshare will be less x86 focused

 Linux already runs on many different

processors in machines as small as

watches and mobile devices, all the way up to mainframes.

 You will likely not know where Linux is

being used unless a “Linux Inside”

marketing campaign becomes successful.

 Software-As-A-Service (Saas) and Cloud

Computing will continue to be significant applications of Linux, but perhaps not well known ones by the public.

The idea of Linux on the desktop will be significantly different

 2018: What's a desktop?

 We will focus on collaboration on clients enabled via open standards, cloud computing, enterprise appliances, Web 2.0, and rich client platforms.

 To the degree that Linux on the traditional desktop succeeds, it will need to approach the

Apple Mac in usability and

attract more graphic designers for design.

Rich Thin / Virtual

Notes

Notes SametimeSametime Symphony Symphony LOB LOB Apps Apps Connections Connections QuickrQuickr

Client Access

Collaboration & Application services

Platform Framework

Operating Systems

Portal

Portal

Prediction 5:

SMB is too close to call

 Will small- and medium-sized businesses stay the

way they are, move to more open platforms and desktops, or shift in a big way to cloud computing and SaaS?

 Their focus will continue to be on buying solutions

and services rather than piecing together

hardware, operating systems, and applications.

 There will be great opportunities for ISVs who

support Linux on multiple hardware platforms for local applications, but who also integrate well with SaaS.

It will be relatively quiet on the FOSS license front

 People will continue to introduce new “open source”

licenses that almost everyone else will ignore.

 The same half dozen licenses that account for 90+% of

FOSS usage today will continue to dominate.

 More software will be built with code coming with

Prediction 7:

Open standards will grab more attention

 A model similar to the Creative Commons will govern

how open standards intellectual property license agreements or patent non-assertion promises are chosen, and there will be far fewer of them.

 The legal implications of standards IP grants on open

source will be much better understood.

 Several now prominent standards development

organizations will cease to exist due to poor quality processes and technology, non-transparent behavior, and antiquated IP policies.

It will be a “do or die” decade for open source industry apps

 We'll continue to see more proprietary applications

being made available on Linux, both server and desktop.

 Some industries like education and

healthcare will continue to create open source applications that work specifically within their domains.

 Either we'll see significant progress being

made in creating open source applications

for the non-public sector, or proprietary apps will maintain their dominance in the very long term.

Future

Linux

In closing ...

 We continue to be in awe of how much has been

accomplished by the free and open source community in the last decade.

 Truly open communities work, but the jury is still out on

the long term viability of bought-and-controlled open source communities.

 We're extremely positive about the future prospects of

Linux and open source, but we can't slack off and we can't forget about those who still might arise to try to slow or reverse the progress that has been made.