Inference for Multivariate Means
Statistics 407, ISU1
Inference for the Population Mean
This section focuses on the question:
Whether a pre-determined mean is a ________ value for the normal population mean, given the sample that we have collected.
In hypothesis testing language, this means we want to test
where is the true population mean and is the hypothesized mean.
Inference for the Population Mean
This section focuses on the question:
Whether a pre-determined mean is a plausible value for the normal population mean, given the sample that we have collected.
In hypothesis testing language, this means we want to test
Ho : µ = µ0 vs HA : µ �= µ0
where µ = (µ1, µ2, . . . , µp) is the true population mean and µ0 = (µ01, µ02, . . . , µ0p) is the hypothesized mean.
1 Inference for the Population Mean
This section focuses on the question:
Whether a pre-determined mean is a plausible value for the normal population mean, given the sample that we have collected.
In hypothesis testing language, this means we want to test
Ho : µ = µ0 vs HA : µ �= µ0
where µ = (µ1, µ2, . . . , µp) is the true population mean and µ0 =
(µ01, µ02, . . . , µ0p) is the hypothesized mean.
1 Inference for the Population Mean
This section focuses on the question:
Whether a pre-determined mean is a plausible value for the normal population mean, given the sample that we have collected.
In hypothesis testing language, this means we want to test
Ho : µ = µ0 vs HA : µ �= µ0
where µ = (µ1, µ2, . . . , µp) is the true population mean and µ0 = (µ01, µ02, . . . , µ0p) is the hypothesized mean.
Univariate Testing of a Mean
Recall, in the univariate situation, when we want to test
we calculate the t-statistic, as follows:
Then we would compare |t| with values from a t-distribution with (n-1)
degrees of freedom, and reject Ho only if |t| is larger than the critical
values.
Univariate Testing of a Mean
Recall, in the univariate situation, when we want to test
Ho : µ = µ0 vs HA : µ �= µ0
we would calculate the t-statistic, as follows:
t = X¯ −µ0 s/√n .
Then we would compare |t| with values from a t-distribution with (n−1) degrees of freedom, and reject Ho only if |t| is larger than
the critical values.
2 3
Confidence Interval for a Mean
We could also compute a 100(1- )% confidence interval for the population mean, , using
We could also compute a 100(1
−
α
)% confidence interval for
the population mean,
µ
, using
¯
X
±
t
n−1(
α
/
2)
√
s
n
3
We could also compute a 100(1
−
α
)% confidence interval for
the population mean,
µ
, using
¯
X
±
t
n
−
1
(
α
/
2)
√
s
n
3 4
Multivariate Testing of a Mean
The multivariate analog of the t-statistic is:
It is called Hotellings .
follows an distribution. (Remember? In univariate case when then .)
Multivariate Testing of a Mean The multivariate analog of the t-statistic is:
T2 = n( ¯X−µ0)�S−n−11( ¯X−µ0) It is called Hotellings T2.
T2 follows an (nn−−1)ppFp,n−p,α distribution. (Remember that, in the univariate case, when t ∼tn−1, then t2 ∼ F1,n−1. Note in the multivariate analog, that the degrees of freedom incorporate the dimensionality of the data.)
4
Multivariate Testing of a Mean
The multivariate analog of the t-statistic is:
T2 = n( ¯X −
µ
0)�S−n−11( ¯X−µ
0)It is called Hotellings T2.
T2 follows an (nn−−1)p pFp,n−p,α distribution. (Remember that, in the univariate case, when t ∼ tn−1, then t2 ∼ F1,n−1. Note in the multivariate analog, that the degrees of freedom incorporate the dimensionality of the data.)
4 Multivariate Testing of a Mean
The multivariate analog of the t-statistic is:
T2 = n( ¯X−
µ
0)�S−n−11( ¯X −µ
0)It is called Hotellings T2.
T2 follows an (nn−−1)ppFp,n−p,α distribution. (Remember that, in the univariate case, when t ∼ tn−1, then t2 ∼ F1,n−1. Note in the multivariate analog, that the degrees of freedom incorporate the dimensionality of the data.)
4
Multivariate Testing of a Mean
The multivariate analog of the
t
-statistic is:
T
2=
n
( ¯
X
−
µ
0)
�S
−n−11( ¯
X
−
µ
0)
It is called
Hotellings
T
2.
T
2follows an
(nn−−1)ppF
p,n−p,αdistribution. (Remember that, in
the univariate case, when
t
∼
t
n−1, then
t
2∼
F
1,n−1. Note in the
multivariate analog, that the degrees of freedom incorporate the
dimensionality of the data.)
4
Multivariate Testing of a Mean
The multivariate analog of the t-statistic is:
T2 = n( ¯X−
µ
0)�S−n−11( ¯X−µ
0)It is called Hotellings T2.
T2 follows an (nn−−1)ppFp,n−p,α distribution. (Remember that, in
the univariate case, when t ∼ tn−1, then t2 ∼ F1,n−1. Note in the
multivariate analog, that the degrees of freedom incorporate the dimensionality of the data.)
4
Multivariate Testing of a Mean
The multivariate analog of the t-statistic is:
T2 = n( ¯X−µ0)�S−n−11( ¯X −µ0)
It is called Hotellings T2. T2 follows an (nn−1)p
−p Fp,n−p,α distribution. (Remember that, in
the univariate case, when t ∼ tn−1, then t2 ∼ F1,n−1. Note in the multivariate analog, that the degrees of freedom incorporate the dimensionality of the data.)
4
5
Multivariate Testing of a Mean
Null hypothesis: Alternative hypothesis:
BRIEF ARTICLE
THE AUTHORH
0:
µ
=
µ
0H
A:
µ
�
=
µ
0Why aren’t there one-sided alternatives?
Example: Sweat data
Perspiration of 20 healthy females for 3 components: Sweat Rate, Sodium Content and Potassium Content.
Example: Sweat data
Perspiration of 20 healthy females for 3 components: Sweat Rate, Sodium Content and Potassium Content.
SweatRate 20 30 40 50 60 70 ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 20 30 40 50 60 70 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● Na ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 7 8 9 10 12 14 7 8 9 10 12 14 K ¯ X = 4.61 45.6 9.97 Sn−1 = 2.75 9.37 −1.72 9.37 190.8 −5.35 −1.72 −5.35 3.45 S−n−11 = 0.606 −0.0222 0.268 −0.0222 0.00630 −0.00132 0.268 −0.00132 0.422 5
Example: Sweat data
Perspiration of 20 healthy females for 3 components: Sweat Rate, Sodium Content and Potassium Content.
SweatRate 2030 40 50 6070 ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 20 30 40 50 60 70 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● Na ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 7 8 9 10 12 14 7 8 9 10 12 14 K ¯ X= 4.61 45.6 9.97 Sn−1 = 2.75 9.37 −1.72 9.37 190.8 −5.35 −1.72 −5.35 3.45 S−n−11 = 0.606 −0.0222 0.268 −0.0222 0.00630 −0.00132 0.268 −0.00132 0.422 5 7 We want to test We want to test if Ho : µ = (4 50 10)� vs HA : µ �= (4 50 10)� T2 = 20 4.61−4 45.6−50 9.97−10 � 0.606 −0.0222 0.268 −0.0222 0.00630 −0.00132 0.268 −0.00132 0.422 4.61−4 45.6−50 9.97−10 = 9.74 6 We want to test if Ho:µ = (4 50 10)� vs HA :µ �= (4 50 10)� T2 = 20 4.61−4 45.6−50 9.97−10 � 0.606 −0.0222 0.268 −0.0222 0.00630 −0.00132 0.268 −0.00132 0.422 4.61−4 45.6−50 9.97−10 = 9.74 6 Calculate: 8
Using then we would _______ Ho at the 10% level of significance.
Using
then we would ______________ Ho at the 5% level of significance.
Taking α = 0.10, (nn−1)p
−p Fp,n−p(0.10) = 1917×3×2.44 = 8.18. Then we would reject Ho at the 10% level of significance.
Taking α = 0.05, (nn−1)p
−p Fp,n−p(0.05) = 1917×3 ×3.2 = 10.7. Then we would NOT reject Ho at the 5% level of significance.
7 Taking α = 0.10, (nn−1)p
−p Fp,n−p(0.10) = 1917×3×2.44 = 8.18. Then
we would reject Ho at the 10% level of significance.
Taking α = 0.05, (nn−−1)ppFp,n−p(0.05) = 1917×3 ×3.2 = 10.7. Then we would NOT reject Ho at the 5% level of significance.
7
9
Confidence Regions and Simultaneous
Comparisons of Component Means
A confidence region for the mean of a p-dimensional normal distribution is the ellipsoid determined by all such that
where are sample observations from a population.
This equation defines an ___________ in p-space.
Confidence Regions and Simultaneous Comparisons of Component Means
A 100(1−α)% confidence region for the mean of a p-dimensional
normal distribution is the ellipsoid determined by all µ such that
n( ¯X−µ)�S−n−11( ¯X−µ) ≤ p(n−1)
n−p Fp,n−p(α)
where X1, . . . ,Xn are sample observations from a Np(µ,Σ)
pop-ulation.
This equation defines an ellipse in p-space.
8
Confidence Regions and Simultaneous Comparisons of
Component Means
A 100(1
−
α
)% confidence region for the mean of a
p
-dimensional
normal distribution is the ellipsoid determined by all
µ
such that
n
( ¯
X
−
µ
)
�S
−n−11( ¯
X
−
µ
)
≤
p
(
n
−
1)
n
−
p
F
p,n−p(
α
)
where
X
1, . . . ,
X
nare sample observations from a
N
p(
µ
,
Σ
)
pop-ulation.
This equation defines an ellipse in
p
-space.
Confidence Regions and Simultaneous Comparisons of Component Means
A 100(1−α)% confidence region for the mean of a p-dimensional normal distribution is the ellipsoid determined by all µ such that
n( ¯X−µ)�S−n−11( ¯X−µ)≤ p(n−1)
n−p Fp,n−p(α)
where X1, . . . ,Xn are sample observations from a Np(µ,Σ) pop-ulation.
This equation defines an ellipse in p-space.
8
Confidence Regions and Simultaneous Comparisons of Component Means
A 100(1−α)% confidence region for the mean of a p-dimensional
normal distribution is the ellipsoid determined by all µ such that
n( ¯X−µ)�S−n−11( ¯X−µ) ≤ p(n−1)
n−p Fp,n−p(α)
where X1, . . . ,Xn are sample observations from a Np(µ,Σ)
pop-ulation.
This equation defines an ellipse in p-space.
Lengths of the major axes.
The shape of the confidence ellipse is dictated by the
variance-covariance matrix, . The ____________ is given by the eigenvectors, and the ______ of the major axes of the confidence ellipse are given by
where is the i'th eigenvalue.
Lengths of the major axes.
The shape of the confidence ellipse is dictated by the variance-covariance matrix, S. The orientation is given by the eigenvec-tors of S, and the lengths of the major axes of the confidence ellipse are given by
�
λi ×
�
p(n −1)
n(n −p)Fp,n−p(α) where λi is the i’th eigenvalue of S.
9
Lengths of the major axes.
The shape of the confidence ellipse is dictated by the
variance-covariance matrix,
S
. The orientation is given by the
eigenvec-tors of
S
, and the lengths of the major axes of the confidence
ellipse are given by
�
λ
i×
�
p
(
n
−
1)
n
(
n
−
p
)
F
p,n−p(
α
)
where
λ
iis the
i
’th eigenvalue of
S
.
9 11
Example: Sweat data
90% confidence region x data points
+ sample mean,
hypothesized mean, confidence region (3D)
Notice that is ________ the confidence region, which
corresponds to the “_____” result for the hypothesis test.
Inference for the Population Mean
This section focuses on the question:
Whether a pre-determined mean is a plausible value for
the normal population mean, given the sample that we
have collected.
In hypothesis testing language, this means we want to test
H
o:
µ
=
µ
0vs
H
A:
µ
�
=
µ
0where
µ
= (
µ
1, µ
2, . . . , µ
p) is the true population mean and
µ
0=
(
µ
01, µ
02, . . . , µ
0p) is the hypothesized mean.
1
Inference for the Population Mean
This section focuses on the question:
Whether a pre-determined mean is a plausible value for
the normal population mean, given the sample that we
have collected.
In hypothesis testing language, this means we want to test
H
o:
µ
=
µ
0vs
H
A:
µ
�
=
µ
0where
µ
= (
µ
1, µ
2, . . . , µ
p) is the true population mean and
µ
0=
(
µ
01, µ
02, . . . , µ
0p) is the hypothesized mean.
1 Multivariate Testing of a Mean
The multivariate analog of the t-statistic is:
T2 = n( ¯X− µ0)�S−n−11( ¯X −µ0) It is called Hotellings T2.
T2 follows an (nn−−1)ppFp,n−p,α distribution. (Remember that, in the univariate case, when t ∼ tn−1, then t2 ∼ F1,n−1. Note in the multivariate analog, that the degrees of freedom incorporate the dimensionality of the data.)
4
Relationship between Interval and
Hypothesis Test
Hypothesis testing is equivalent to examining the hypothesized value in relation to the simultaneous confidence ellipse. If the hypothesized
value lies ________ the ellipse, then the null hypothesis is _________.
13
Simultaneous Confidence Intervals
Scheffe’s:
Bonferroni Method vs T2 intervals
Another method for computing simultaneous confidence intervals is ¯ Xi± � (n−1)p n−p Fp,n−p,α si √ n
which is called Scheffe’s method. These intervals are the confi-dence ellipse projected into the coordinate axes.
The t-interval is the smallest interval, followed by Bonferroni, followed by Scheffe’s.
Simultaneous Confidence Intervals
Bonferroni:
Bonferroni Method of Multiple Comparisons
The (1
−
α)100%
t
-interval
¯
X
i
±
t
n
−
1
,
α 2s
i
√
n
is calculated to contain the true mean with probability (1
−
α).
When computing multiple (
p
) confidence intervals the joint
prob-ability that they contain the true means needs to be at least
(1
−
α
). To achieve this each interval will need to have a higher
probability that it contains the true mean. One method for
en-suring this is the Bonferroni correction:
¯
X
i
±
t
n
−
1
,
α 2ps
i
√
n
11 15Intervals vs Region
90% confidence region x data points + sample mean, hypothesized mean, confidence region (3D) Bonferroni confidence interval, regionEllipse extends outside of box, in some directions. Hypothesized mean is inside box always.
Inference for the Population Mean
This section focuses on the question:
Whether a pre-determined mean is a plausible value for
the normal population mean, given the sample that we
have collected.
In hypothesis testing language, this means we want to test
H
o:
µ
=
µ
0vs
H
A:
µ
�
=
µ
0where
µ
= (
µ
1, µ
2, . . . , µ
p) is the true population mean and
µ
0=
(
µ
01, µ
02, . . . , µ
0p) is the hypothesized mean.
1 Multivariate Testing of a Mean
The multivariate analog of the t-statistic is:
T2 = n( ¯X− µ0)�S−n−11( ¯X −µ0) It is called Hotellings T2.
T2 follows an (nn−−1)ppFp,n−p,α distribution. (Remember that, in the univariate case, when t ∼ tn−1, then t2 ∼ F1,n−1. Note in the multivariate analog, that the degrees of freedom incorporate the dimensionality of the data.)
4
Paired Samples
! _____________ the second value from the first and treat as a one
sample problem.
! Example: “Municipal wastewater treatment plants are required by law to monitor
their discharges into rivers and streams on a regular basis. Concern about the reliability of data from one of these self-monitoring programs led to a study in which samples of effluent were divided and sent to two laboratories were divided and sent to two laboratories for testing. One half of each sample was sent to the Wisconsin state lab and the other half sent to a private commercial lab routinely used in the monitoring program. Measurements were made on biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) and suspended solids (SS) were obtained, on n=11 samples.”
! Are the analyses producing equivalent results?
17
Data
Sample BOD
SS
BOD SS
BOD SS
1
6
27
25
15
-19
12
2
6
23
28
13
-22
10
3
18
64
36
22
-18
42
4
8
44
35
29
-27
15
5
11
30
15
31
-4
-1
6
34
75
44
64
-10
11
7
28
26
42
30
-14
-4
8
71
124
54
64
17
60
9
43
54
34
56
9
-2
10
33
30
29
20
4
10
11
20
14
39
21
-19
-7
18Plots
! Plot _____ vs _________! Are the values for BOD
the same from labs 1 & 2?
! Are the values for SS the
same from labs 1 & 2?
! Plot _________ in
multivariate plots.
! Is there a systematic shift
from one rep to another.
! Plot ____________, along
with sample mean and hypothesized mean.
! How similar are the
sample mean and hyp mean? ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Lab BOD ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Lab SS 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 20 40 60 80 100 120 BOD SS 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 122 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● −20 −10 0 10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Differences BOD SS x +
¯
D
=
�
−
9
.
36
13
.
27
�
S
d
=
�
199
.
3
88
.
3
88
.
3
418
.
6
�
T
2
= 11[
−
9
.
36 13
.
27]
�
0
.
0055
−
0
.
0012
−
0
.
0012
0
.
0026
� �
−
9
.
36
13
.
27
�
= 13
.
6
2
×
10
9
F
2
,
9
(0
.
05) = 9
.
47
⇒
Reject
H
o
.
21 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Lab BOD ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Lab SS 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 20 40 60 80 100 120 BOD SS 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 122 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● −20 −10 0 10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Differences BOD SS x +¯
D
=
�
−
9
.
36
13
.
27
�
S
d
=
�
199
.
3
88
.
3
88
.
3
418
.
6
�
T
2
= 11[
−
9
.
36 13
.
27]
�
0
.
0055
−
0
.
0012
−
0
.
0012
0
.
0026
� �
−
9
.
36
13
.
27
�
= 13
.
6
2
×
10
9
F
2
,
9
(0
.
05) = 9
.
47
⇒
Reject
H
o
.
21 19Two Sample Hotellings
For two samples collected independently from multivariate normal
populations, , the test statistic for vs is
distributed as and
Two Sample Hotellings
T
2
For two samples collected independently from multivariate
nor-mal populations,
N
(
µ
1
,
Σ
)
, N
(
µ
2
,
Σ
), the test statistic for
H
0
:
µ
1
=
µ
2
vs
H
A
:
µ
1
�
=
µ
2
is:
T
2
= ( ¯
X
1
−
X
¯
2
)
�
((
1
n
1
+
1
n
2
)
S
pooled
)
−
1
( ¯
X
1
−
X
¯
2
)
is distributed as
(
n
1
+
n
2
−
2)
p
n
1
+
n
2
−
1
−
p
F
p,n
1
+
n
2
−
p
−
1
,
α
and
S
pooled
=
n
1
−
1
n
1
+
n
2
−
2
S
1
+
n
2
−
1
n
1
+
n
2
−
2
S
2
.
22
Two Sample Hotellings T2
For two samples collected independently from multivariate nor-mal populations, N(µ1,Σ), N(µ2,Σ), the test statistic for H0 : µ1 = µ2 vs HA : µ1 �= µ2 is: T2 = ( ¯X1−X¯2)�(( 1 n1 + 1 n2)Spooled) −1( ¯X 1−X¯2) is distributed as (n1+n2−2)p n1+n2−1−pFp,n1+n2−p−1,α and Spooled = n1−1 n1+n2−2S1 + n2−1 n1+n2−2S2. 22
Two Sample Hotellings T2
For two samples collected independently from multivariate nor-mal populations, N(µ1,Σ), N(µ2,Σ), the test statistic for H0 : µ1 = µ2 vs HA :µ1 �= µ2 is: T2 = ( ¯X1−X¯2)�(( 1 n1 + 1 n2 )Spooled)−1( ¯X1 −X¯2) is distributed as (n1+n2−2)p n1+n2−1−pFp,n1+n2−p−1,α and Spooled = n1−1 n1+n2−2S1+ n1n+2n−21−2S2. 22
Two Sample Hotellings
T
2For two samples collected independently from multivariate
nor-mal populations,
N
(
µ
1,
Σ)
, N
(
µ
2,
Σ), the test statistic for
H
0:
µ
1=
µ
2vs
H
A:
µ
1�
=
µ
2is:
T
2= ( ¯
X
1−
X
¯
2)
�((
1
n
1+
1
n
2)
S
pooled)
−1( ¯
X
1−
X
¯
2)
is distributed as
(n1+n2−2)p n1+n2−1−pFp,n
1+n2−p−1,αand
S
pooled=
n1−1 n1+n2−2S
1+
n1n+n2−21−2S
2.
22Two Sample Hotellings T2
For two samples collected independently from multivariate nor-mal populations, N(µ1,Σ), N(µ2,Σ), the test statistic for H0 :
µ1 = µ2 vs HA : µ1 �= µ2 is: T2 = ( ¯X1 −X¯2)�(( 1 n1 + 1 n2 )Spooled)−1( ¯X1 −X¯2) is distributed as (n1+n2−2)p n1+n2−1−pFp,n1+n2−p−1,α and Spooled = n1−1 n1+n2−2S1 + n1n+n2−21−2S2. 22 20
Test for Homogeneity of
Variance-covariances
To test the hypothesis against the alternative that they are not all equal, SAS PROC DISCRIM uses a LRT test
(extends Bartlett’s univariate test.) No exact distribution, but for large data can be used to obtain p-values. Also Box’s M test,
, there’s R code for this. BUT, both tend to be sensitive, to ______________________________!! BRIEF ARTICLE THE AUTHOR H0 : µ1 = µ2 HA : µ1 �= µ2 H0 : Σ1 = Σ2 = ... = Σg 1
Testing for Equality of Variance-Covariance
Bartlett’s test for homogeneity of variances, for univariate data is: which generalizes to Λ = �g i=1|Si|(ni−1)/2 |Spooled|(n−p)/2
has no exact distribution.
27
BRIEF ARTICLE
THE AUTHORH
0:
µ
1=
µ
2H
A:
µ
1�
=
µ
2H
0:
Σ
1=
Σ
2=
...
=
Σ
gχ
2 2 Appendix 14Statistics
Means yi yij i j n n i = =!
1Cell Covariance Matrix
S y y y y 0 i ij ij i j n ij i i i i w n n n i = " " # " > $
!
"#
$#
=!
1%
&%
& '
1(
1 1 if ifPooled Covariance Matrix
S S 0 = " " > $
!
"#
$#
=!
n n g n g n g i i i g 1 1'
( ) *
if if Box’s M Statistic M n g ni i i g = " " " > $!
"#
$#
!
=) *
logS'
(
logS S S 1 0 0 1 if SYSMIS if 21Comparing several Multivariate
Means - MANOVA
! Data: __samples of size ; __ variables.
! Population: g populations; different means , same
covariance , multivariate normal.
! Arises from (1) designed experimental studies, where there are
multiple responses measured for one or more treatments, (2) in
classification problems, where we want to classify a new observation into a class, based on two or more measured variables.
Comparing several Multivariate Means - MANOVA
Data
:
g
samples of size
n
1, . . . n
g;
p
variables.
Population
:
g
populations; di
ff
erent means (µ
1, . . . ,
µ
g), same
covariance (
Σ
), multivariate normal.
Arises from (1) designed experimental studies, where there are
multiple responses measured for one or more treatments, (2) in
classification problems, where we want to classify a new
obser-vation into a class, based on two or more measured variables.
Comparing several Multivariate Means - MANOVA Data: g samples of size n1, . . . ng; p variables.
Population: g populations; different means (µ1, . . . ,µg), same covariance (Σ), multivariate normal.
Arises from (1) designed experimental studies, where there are multiple responses measured for one or more treatments, (2) in classification problems, where we want to classify a new obser-vation into a class, based on two or more measured variables.
28
Comparing several Multivariate Means - MANOVA Data: g samples of size n1, . . . ng; p variables.
Population: g populations; different means (µ1, . . . ,µg), same covariance (Σ), multivariate normal.
Arises from (1) designed experimental studies, where there are multiple responses measured for one or more treatments, (2) in classification problems, where we want to classify a new obser-vation into a class, based on two or more measured variables.
Recall Univariate ANOVA
We have random samples from
l=1, ..., g. We are interested to know if the population means of the groups are different, that is, if .
The problem is parametrized into the following model formulation:
with the constraint , which leads to the null hypothesis notation:
Recall Univariate ANOVA
We have random samples Xl1, Xl2, . . . , Xlnl from N(µl,σ2), l =
1, . . . , g. We are interested to know if the population means of
the groups are different, that is, if µ1 = µ2 = . . . = µg.
The problem is parametrized into the following model formula-tion:
Xlj = µ + τl + elj
with the constraint �gl=1nlτl = 0, which leads to the null
hy-pothesis notation:
Ho : τ1 = τ2 = . . . = τg = 0
29
Recall Univariate ANOVA
We have random samples
X
l1, X
l2, . . . , X
lnlfrom
N
(
µ
l,
σ
2),
l
=
1
, . . . , g
. We are interested to know if the population means of
the groups are di
ff
erent, that is, if
µ
1=
µ
2=
. . .
=
µ
g.
The problem is parametrized into the following model
formula-tion:
X
lj=
µ
+
τ
l+
e
ljwith the constraint
�gl=1n
lτ
l= 0, which leads to the null
hy-pothesis notation:
H
o:
τ
1=
τ
2=
. . .
=
τ
g= 0
29
Recall Univariate ANOVA
We have random samples Xl1, Xl2, . . . , Xlnl from N(µl,σ2), l =
1, . . . , g. We are interested to know if the population means of
the groups are different, that is, if µ1 = µ2 = . . . =µg.
The problem is parametrized into the following model formula-tion:
Xlj = µ + τl + elj
with the constraint �gl=1nlτl = 0, which leads to the null
hy-pothesis notation:
Ho : τ1 = τ2 = . . . = τg = 0
29
23
The model is fit to the data by splitting each observation into components:
The model is fit to the data by splitting each observation into components:
Xlj = ¯X + ( ¯Xl−X¯) + (Xlj−X¯l), j = 1, . . . , nl; l = 1, . . . , g
and computing the sums of squares for each component:
g � l=1 nl � j=1 (Xlj−X¯)2= g � l=1 nl( ¯Xl−X¯)2+ g � l=1 nl � j=1 (Xlj−X¯l)2 30
and computing the sums of squares for each component:
The model is fit to the data by splitting each observation into components:
Xlj = ¯X + ( ¯Xl−X¯) + (Xlj−X¯l), j = 1, . . . , nl; l= 1, . . . , g
and computing the sums of squares for each component:
g � l=1 nl � j=1 (Xlj−X¯)2 = g � l=1 nl( ¯Xl−X¯)2+ g � l=1 nl � j=1 (Xlj−X¯l)2 30 24
ANOVA Table
Then we test the hypothesis using
ANOVA Table
Source SS df Treatment (Between) SST r g −1
Error (Within) SSRes �gl=1nl −g
Total SSCorT ot �gl=1nl −1
Then we test the hypothesis Ho : τ1 = τ2 = . . . = τg = 0 vs HA : not all equal 0, using:
F = SST r/(g −1) SSRes/(�gl=1nl −g) ∼ Fg−1,�nl−g(α) 31 ANOVA Table Source SS df Treatment (Between) SST r g−1
Error (Within) SSRes �gl=1nl−g
Total SSCorT ot �gl=1nl−1
Then we test the hypothesis Ho: τ1 =τ2 =. . .= τg = 0 vs HA : not all equal 0, using:
F = SST r/(g−1)
SSRes/(�gl=1nl−g)∼Fg−1,�nl−g(α)
31
25
Multivariate ANOVA
The corresponding model formulation is
And the corresponding data decomposition
Multivariate ANOVA
The corresponding model formulation is
Xlj = µ + τl + elj
where Xlj,elj are nl× p matrices, µ,τl are p-D vectors, giving the corresponding data representation:
Xlj = ¯X + ( ¯Xl−X¯) + (Xlj−X¯l), j = 1, . . . , nl; l = 1, . . . , g
The corresponding sums of squares is given by: BRIEF ARTICLE THE AUTHOR H0:µ1=µ2 HA:µ1�=µ2 H0:Σ1=Σ2=...=Σg χ2 g � l=1 nl � j=1 (Xlj−X¯)(Xlj−X¯)�= g � l=1 nl( ¯Xl−X¯)( ¯Xl−X¯)�+ g � l=1 nl � j=1 (Xlj−Xl¯ )(Xlj−Xl¯ )� 1
The corresponding sums of squares is given by:
g � l=1 nl � j=1 (Xlj −X¯)(Xlj −X¯)� = g � l=1 nl( ¯Xl −X¯)( ¯Xl −X¯)�+ g � l=1 nl � j=1 (Xlj −X¯l)(Xlj −X¯l)� = B+W MANOVA Table Source SS df Treatment (Between) B g −1 Error (Within) W �gl=1nl −g Total B+W �gl=1nl −1 33 MANOVA Table 27
The big complication here is that we are comparing matrices now
instead of single numbers. The matrices correspond to variance ellipses in p-D space. So there are numerous test statistics. The most popular is Wilks' lambda:
If is too small then reject . If is large,
is distributed as . For smaller
n, some combinations of p,g the test statistic has an F distribution.
Testing the hypothesis
Testing the hypothesis,
H
o:
τ
1=
. . .
=
τ
l=
0
The big complication here is that we are comparing matrices now
instead of single numbers. The matrices correspond to variance
ellipses in
p
-D space. So there are numerous test statistics. The
most popular is Wilks’ lambda:
Λ
∗=
|
W
|
|
B
+
W
|
If
Λ
∗is too small then reject
H
o. If
�
n
l=
n
is large,
−
(
n
−
1
−
(
p
+
g
)
/
2) ln
�
|W|
|B+W|
�
is distributed as
χ
2p(g−1)(
α
). For smaller
n
,
some combinations of
p, g
the test statistic has an
F
distribution.
34
Testing the hypothesis,
H
o:
τ
1=
. . .
=
τ
l=
0
The big complication here is that we are comparing matrices now
instead of single numbers. The matrices correspond to variance
ellipses in
p
-D space. So there are numerous test statistics. The
most popular is Wilks’ lambda:
Λ
∗=
|
W
|
|
B
+
W
|
If
Λ
∗is too small then reject
H
o. If
�n
l=
n
is large,
−
(
n
−
1
−
(
p
+
g
)
/
2) ln
�|W|
|B+W|
�
is distributed as
χ
2p(g−1)(
α
). For smaller
n
,
some combinations of
p, g
the test statistic has an
F
distribution.
34
Testing the hypothesis,
H
o:
τ
1=
. . .
=
τ
l=
0
The big complication here is that we are comparing matrices now
instead of single numbers. The matrices correspond to variance
ellipses in
p
-D space. So there are numerous test statistics. The
most popular is Wilks’ lambda:
Λ
∗=
|
W
|
|
B
+
W
|
If
Λ
∗is too small then reject
H
o. If
�n
l=
n
is large,
−
(
n
−
1
−
(
p
+
g
)
/
2) ln
�|W| |B+W|
�
is distributed as
χ
2p(g−1)(
α
). For smaller
n
,
some combinations of
p, g
the test statistic has an
F
distribution.
34
Testing the hypothesis, Ho : τ1 = . . . = τl = 0
The big complication here is that we are comparing matrices now instead of single numbers. The matrices correspond to variance ellipses in p-D space. So there are numerous test statistics. The most popular is Wilks’ lambda:
Λ∗ = |W|
|B +W|
If Λ∗ is too small then reject Ho. If �nl = n is large, −(n − 1−
(p+g)/2) ln � |W| |B+W| � is distributed as χ2p(g −1)(α). For smaller n,
some combinations of p, g the test statistic has an F distribution.
34 BRIEF ARTICLE THE AUTHOR H0:µ1 =µ2 HA :µ1 �=µ2 H0:Σ1 =Σ2 =...=Σg χ2 g � l=1 nl � j=1 (Xlj−X¯)(Xlj −X¯)� = g � l=1 nl( ¯Xl−X¯)( ¯Xl−X¯)�+ g � l=1 nl � j=1 (Xlj−X¯l)(Xlj −X¯l)� −(n−1−(p+g)/2) ln�|B|W+W| |� 1
Testing the hypothesis, Ho : τ1 = . . . = τl = 0
The big complication here is that we are comparing matrices now instead of single numbers. The matrices correspond to variance ellipses in p-D space. So there are numerous test statistics. The most popular is Wilks’ lambda:
Λ∗ = |W|
|B+W|
If Λ∗ is too small then reject Ho. If �nl = n is large, −(n−1 −
(p+g)/2) ln �
|W|
|B+W|
�
is distributed as χ2p(g−1)(α). For smaller n, some combinations of p, g the test statistic has an F distribution.
34
Note that we can also express as
Note that we can also express
Λ
∗as
Λ
∗=
min(�p,g−1) i=1
1
1 +
λ
iwhere
λ
i;
i
= 1
, . . . ,
min(
p, g
−
1) are the eigenvalues of
W
−1B
.
Also note, being based on determinants of the matrices that
Wilks lambda is essentially comparing volumes of the
correspond-ing ellipses. Another way of calculatcorrespond-ing volumes of ellipses is the
products of the lengths of the leading axes (eigenvalues).
35 Note that we can also express Λ∗ as
Λ∗ =
min(�p,g−1)
i=1
1 1 + λi
where λi; i = 1, . . . ,min(p, g −1) are the eigenvalues of W−1B. Also note, being based on determinants of the matrices that Wilks lambda is essentially comparing volumes of the correspond-ing ellipses. Another way of calculatcorrespond-ing volumes of ellipses is the products of the lengths of the leading axes (eigenvalues).
35
where are the _______________ of .
Note that we can also express Λ∗ as
Λ∗ =
min(�p,g−1)
i=1
1
1 + λi
where λi; i = 1, . . . ,min(p, g − 1) are the eigenvalues of W−1B.
Also note, being based on determinants of the matrices that Wilks lambda is essentially comparing volumes of the correspond-ing ellipses. Another way of calculatcorrespond-ing volumes of ellipses is the products of the lengths of the leading axes (eigenvalues).
35
Note that we can also express Λ∗ as
Λ∗ = min(p,g−1) � i=1 1 1 +λi
where λi; i = 1, . . . ,min(p, g − 1) are the eigenvalues of W−1B.
Also note, being based on determinants of the matrices that Wilks lambda is essentially comparing volumes of the correspond-ing ellipses. Another way of calculatcorrespond-ing volumes of ellipses is the products of the lengths of the leading axes (eigenvalues).
35
Also note, being based on determinants of the matrices that Wilks lambda is essentially ___________________ of the corresponding ellipses. Another way of calculating volumes of ellipses is the products of the lengths of the leading axes (eigenvalues).
29
Other Test Statistics
! Roy's largest eigenvalue of! Lawley and Hotellings: ! Pillai's trace:
Other Test Statistics
• Roy’s largest eigenvalue of BW−1
• Lawley and Hotellings: T = trace(BW−1) • Pillai’s trace: V = trace(B(B+W)−1)
36
Other Test Statistics
•
Roy’s largest eigenvalue of
BW
−1•
Lawley and Hotellings:
T
=
trace
(
BW
−1)
•
Pillai’s trace:
V
=
trace
(
B
(
B
+
W
)
−1)
36
Other Test Statistics
• Roy’s largest eigenvalue of BW−1
• Lawley and Hotellings: T = trace(BW−1)
• Pillai’s trace: V =trace(B(B+W)−1)
Example: Dominican Republic
Student Testing
82 Students, enrolled in one of Technology (23), Architecture (38), Medical Technology (21) programs.
The students were given 4 tests: Aptitude, Math, Language, General Knowledge.
Is there is a difference in the average test scores for each student type?
31
Summary Statistics
BRIEF ARTICLE THE AUTHOR H0:µ1=µ2 HA:µ1�=µ2 H0:Σ1=Σ2=...=Σg χ2 g � l=1 nl � j=1 (Xlj−X¯)(Xlj−X¯)� = g � l=1 nl( ¯Xl−X¯)( ¯Xl−X¯)�+ g � l=1 nl � j=1 (Xlj−X¯l)(Xlj−X¯l)� −(n−1−(p+g)/2) ln�|B|W+W| |� ¯ X= 49.1 46.8 73.1 22.3 X¯1= 39.0 47.4 70.6 19.2 X¯2= 67.2 51.2 77.3 21.5 X¯3= 27.4 38.1 68.1 27.2 1 n=82, n1=23, n2=38, n3=21, p=4, g=3 2 THE AUTHOR S1 = 1067.7 224.1 97.5 74.0 224.1 192.9 34.6 37.9 97.5 34.6 68.9 3.2 74.0 37.9 3.2 50.5 S2 = 488.9 25.8 37.8 67.5 25.8 235.7 46.0 −28.3 37.8 46.0 57.2 0.57 67.5 −28.3 0.57 68.2 S3 = 672.9 112.9 101.2 68.3 112.9 81.2 7.8 4.4 101.2 7.8 56.3 −9.7 68.3 4.4 −9.7 170.4 2 THE AUTHOR S1 = 1067.7 224.1 97.5 74.0 224.1 192.9 34.6 37.9 97.5 34.6 68.9 3.2 74.0 37.9 3.2 50.5 S2 = 488.9 25.8 37.8 67.5 25.8 235.7 46.0 −28.3 37.8 46.0 57.2 0.57 67.5 −28.3 0.57 68.2 S3 = 672.9 112.9 101.2 68.3 112.9 81.2 7.8 4.4 101.2 7.8 56.3 −9.7 68.3 4.4 −9.7 170.4 2 THE AUTHOR S1 = 1067.7 224.1 97.5 74.0 224.1 192.9 34.6 37.9 97.5 34.6 68.9 3.2 74.0 37.9 3.2 50.5 S2 = 488.9 25.8 37.8 67.5 25.8 235.7 46.0 −28.3 37.8 46.0 57.2 0.57 67.5 −28.3 0.57 68.2 S3 = 672.9 112.9 101.2 68.3 112.9 81.2 7.8 4.4 101.2 7.8 56.3 −9.7 68.3 4.4 −9.7 170.4 Can we consider that the population variance-covariances
might be equal?
Descriptive
graphics
value co un t 0 5 10 15 0 5 10 15 0 5 10 15 Apt 0 20 40 60 80 100 Math 0 20 40 60 80100 Lang 0 20 40 60 80 100 GenKnow 0 20 40 60 80 100 T ech Arch Me dT ech StudType Tech Arch MedTechCan we consider that the population
variances might be equal?
Are the population means different? 33
Descriptive
graphics
Ap t Ma th Lang G en Kn owApt Math Lang GenKnow
20 40 60 80 Corr: 0.408 Corr: 0.512 Corr: 0.139 0 20 40 60 80 Corr: 0.413 Corr: -0.104 0 20 40 60 80 Corr: -0.0811 0 20 40 60 80 10 20 30 40 50 10 20 30 40 50 10 20 30 40 50 10 20 30 40 50 Can we consider that
the population
variance-covariances might be equal?
Are the means different?
Descriptive
graphics
Can we consider that the population
variance-covariances might be equal?
Are the means different? 35
Test
OR B = 24600.2 6832.6 5709.5 −2040.4 6832.6 2329.6 1570.2 −1064.7 5709.5 1570.2 1325.7 −455.6 −2040.4 −1064.7 −455.6 743.5 W = 55036.2 8140.0 5570.0 5490.1 8140.0 14589.0 2619.2 −128.0 5570.0 2619.2 4759.9 −102.4 5490.1 −128.0 −102.4 7040.6 42 36Test
2 THE AUTHORS
1=
1067
.
7 224
.
1 97
.
5 74
.
0
224
.
1 192
.
9 34
.
6 37
.
9
97
.
5
34
.
6 68
.
9 3
.
2
74
.
0
37
.
9
3
.
2 50
.
5
S
2=
488
.
9
25
.
8
37
.
8
67
.
5
25
.
8
235
.
7 46
.
0
−
28
.
3
37
.
8
46
.
0
57
.
2
0
.
57
67
.
5
−
28
.
3 0
.
57
68
.
2
S
3=
672
.
9 112
.
9 101
.
2 68
.
3
112
.
9 81
.
2
7
.
8
4
.
4
101
.
2
7
.
8
56
.
3
−
9
.
7
68
.
3
4
.
4
−
9
.
7 170
.
4
H
o:
µ
1=
µ
2=
µ
3H
o:
τ
1=
τ
2=
τ
3=
0
OR> summary(manova(cbind(Apt, Math, Lang, GenKnow)~StudType, domrep), test="Wilks")
Df Wilks approx F num Df den Df Pr(>F) StudType 2 _______ _______ 8 152 1.384e-07 *** Residuals 79 2 THE AUTHOR S1 = 1067.7 224.1 97.5 74.0 224.1 192.9 34.6 37.9 97.5 34.6 68.9 3.2 74.0 37.9 3.2 50.5 S2 = 488.9 25.8 37.8 67.5 25.8 235.7 46.0 −28.3 37.8 46.0 57.2 0.57 67.5 −28.3 0.57 68.2 S3 = 672.9 112.9 101.2 68.3 112.9 81.2 7.8 4.4 101.2 7.8 56.3 −9.7 68.3 4.4 −9.7 170.4 Ho:µ1 =µ2 =µ3 Ho:τ1 =τ2=τ3=0 B= 24600.2 6832.6 5709.5 −2040.4 6832.6 2329.6 1570.2 −1064.7 5709.5 1570.2 1325.7 −455.6 −2040.4 −1064.7 −455.6 743.5 W= 55036.2 8140.0 5570.0 5490.1 8140.0 14589.0 2619.2 −128.0 5570.0 2619.2 4759.9 −102.4 5490.1 −128.0 −102.4 7040.6 37
Which variables?
Analysis of variance on each variable
All variables have significant difference between means! In order of importance: ____________________________ 2 THE AUTHOR S1 = 1067.7 224.1 97.5 74.0 224.1 192.9 34.6 37.9 97.5 34.6 68.9 3.2 74.0 37.9 3.2 50.5 S2 = 488.9 25.8 37.8 67.5 25.8 235.7 46.0 −28.3 37.8 46.0 57.2 0.57 67.5 −28.3 0.57 68.2 S3 = 672.9 112.9 101.2 68.3 112.9 81.2 7.8 4.4 101.2 7.8 56.3 −9.7 68.3 4.4 −9.7 170.4 Ho : µ1 =µ2 =µ3 Ho : τ1 =τ2 =τ3 =0 B= 24600.2 6832.6 5709.5 −2040.4 6832.6 2329.6 1570.2 −1064.7 5709.5 1570.2 1325.7 −455.6 −2040.4 −1064.7 −455.6 743.5 W= 55036.2 8140.0 5570.0 5490.1 8140.0 14589.0 2619.2 −128.0 5570.0 2619.2 4759.9 −102.4 5490.1 −128.0 −102.4 7040.6
Df Sum Sq Mean Sq F value Pr(>F) Apt 2 24600 12300.1 17.656 4.589e-07 *** Math 2 2329.6 1164.80 6.3074 0.002875 ** Lang 2 1325.7 662.85 11.001 6.097e-05 *** GenKnow 2 743.5 371.74 4.1712 0.01896 *
Which groups?
Tukey’s multiple comparisons
Apt: _____________________________________ Math: ____________________________________ Lang: ____________________________________ GenKnow: _______________________________ 2 THE AUTHOR S1 = 1067.7 224.1 97.5 74.0 224.1 192.9 34.6 37.9 97.5 34.6 68.9 3.2 74.0 37.9 3.2 50.5 S2 = 488.9 25.8 37.8 67.5 25.8 235.7 46.0 −28.3 37.8 46.0 57.2 0.57 67.5 −28.3 0.57 68.2 S3 = 672.9 112.9 101.2 68.3 112.9 81.2 7.8 4.4 101.2 7.8 56.3 −9.7 68.3 4.4 −9.7 170.4 Ho:µ1=µ2=µ3 Ho:τ1=τ2=τ3=0 B= 24600.2 6832.6 5709.5 −2040.4 6832.6 2329.6 1570.2 −1064.7 5709.5 1570.2 1325.7 −455.6 −2040.4 −1064.7 −455.6 743.5 W= 55036.2 8140.0 5570.0 5490.1 8140.0 14589.0 2619.2 −128.0 5570.0 2619.2 4759.9 −102.4 5490.1 −128.0 −102.4 7040.6
Df Sum Sq Mean Sq F value Pr(>F)
Apt 2 24600 12300.1 17.656 4.589e-07 *** Math 2 2329.6 1164.80 6.3074 0.002875 ** Lang 2 1325.7 662.85 11.001 6.097e-05 *** GenKnow 2 743.5 371.74 4.1712 0.01896 * diff lwr upr p adj Arch-Tech 28.16 11.50 44.81 0.00 MedTech-Tech -11.57 -30.60 7.46 0.32 MedTech-Arch -39.73 -56.87 -22.59 0.00 Apt BRIEF ARTICLE 3 diff lwr upr p adj Arch-Tech 3.79 -4.78 12.37 0.54 MedTech-Tech -9.30 -19.09 0.50 0.07 MedTech-Arch -13.09 -21.92 -4.26 0.00 diff lwr upr p adj Arch-Tech 6.68 1.78 11.58 0.00 MedTech-Tech -2.47 -8.06 3.13 0.55 MedTech-Arch -9.15 -14.19 -4.11 0.00 diff lwr upr p adj Arch-Tech 2.31 -3.65 8.27 0.63 MedTech-Tech 7.97 1.17 14.78 0.02 MedTech-Arch 5.66 -0.47 11.80 0.08 Math BRIEF ARTICLE 3 diff lwr upr p adj Arch-Tech 3.79 -4.78 12.37 0.54 MedTech-Tech -9.30 -19.09 0.50 0.07 MedTech-Arch -13.09 -21.92 -4.26 0.00 diff lwr upr p adj Arch-Tech 6.68 1.78 11.58 0.00 MedTech-Tech -2.47 -8.06 3.13 0.55 MedTech-Arch -9.15 -14.19 -4.11 0.00 diff lwr upr p adj Arch-Tech 2.31 -3.65 8.27 0.63 MedTech-Tech 7.97 1.17 14.78 0.02 MedTech-Arch 5.66 -0.47 11.80 0.08 Lang BRIEF ARTICLE 3 diff lwr upr p adj Arch-Tech 3.79 -4.78 12.37 0.54 MedTech-Tech -9.30 -19.09 0.50 0.07 MedTech-Arch -13.09 -21.92 -4.26 0.00 diff lwr upr p adj Arch-Tech 6.68 1.78 11.58 0.00 MedTech-Tech -2.47 -8.06 3.13 0.55 MedTech-Arch -9.15 -14.19 -4.11 0.00 diff lwr upr p adj Arch-Tech 2.31 -3.65 8.27 0.63 MedTech-Tech 7.97 1.17 14.78 0.02 MedTech-Arch 5.66 -0.47 11.80 0.08 GenKnow 39
Summary
In general, using a multivariate test, such as _________, is preferable to multiple univariate tests, such as __________. This controls for the correlation structure in the data. Its possible to get non-significant results in the univariate tests, but significant results in the multivariate tests. That is, the univariate tests may not detect the differences, in the presence of correlation between the responses.
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