Transitions in the German labor market: Structure and crisis

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Transitions in the German labor market:

structure and crisis

Michael U. Krause

(Deutsche Bundesbank)

Harald Uhlig

(University of Chicago and Deutsche Bundesbank)

Discussion Paper

Series 1: Economic Studies

No 34/2011

Discussion Papers represent the authors’ personal opinions and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Deutsche Bundesbank or its staff.

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Editorial Board: Klaus Düllmann

Frank Heid

Heinz Herrmann

Deutsche Bundesbank, Wilhelm-Epstein-Straße 14, 60431 Frankfurt am Main, Postfach 10 06 02, 60006 Frankfurt am Main

Tel +49 69 9566-0

Telex within Germany 41227, telex from abroad 414431 Please address all orders in writing to: Deutsche Bundesbank,

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Reproduction permitted only if source is stated. ISBN 978-3–86558–776–3 (Printversion) ISBN 978-3–86558–777–0 (Internetversion)

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(33)

:CF B9K >C6G 7<5B;9 5B8 H<IG 5@GC H<9 >C6 89GHFI7H=CB F5H9G HC 5B8 _K9@:5F9 ,<IG H<9M 5F9 @CK9F :CF @CKG?=@@98 KCF?9FG CB <=;< 69B9OHG 6IH G@=;<H@M <=;<9F :CF GI7< KCF?9FG K=H< @CK 69B9OHG CF K9@:5F9 ,<=G =G 8I9 HC H<9 =B7F95G9 =B @56CF A5F?9H H=;<HB9GG HC !H F5=G9G CIHG=89 CDH=CBG 5B8 H<IG DIG<9G ID K5;9G =B 5@@ >C6G 5B8 H<9F9:CF9 ACF9 H<5B CWG9HG H<9 GH=AI@5H=B; 9W97H C: @CK9F 69B9OHG CB H<9 >C6 5779DH5B79 F5H9G ,<=G =G A=FFCF98 =B H<9 G9D5F5H=CB DFC656=@=H=9G !BH9F9GH=B;@M H<=G 8C9G BCH 58J9FG9@M 5W97H H<9 CJ9F5@@ >C6 7F95H=CB F5H9 6975IG9 5H H<9 G5A9 H=A9 H<9 >C6 OB8=B;

DFC656=@=HM C: H<9 IB9AD@CM98 F=G9G HC K<=@9 H<5H :CF >C6 :5@@G HC

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DF9J=CIG@M <=;< 5B8 @CK G?=@@98 KCF?9FG F9GD97H=J9@M 5B8K9@:5F9 :CF H<9 @CB;H9FA

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G?=@@98 KCF?9FG F9A5=B H<9 G5A9 HC + 5B8 H<CG9 :CF @CKG?=@@98 KCF?9FG :5@@ HC

+ 'B9 A5M <5J9 9LD97H98 5 DFCBCIB798 8FCD =B K5;9G 5:H9F 5 7IH =B F9D@579A9BH

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ACF9 J575B7=9G 5G H<9 F=G9 =B =B8=75H9G ,<FCI;< 65F;5=B=B; H<9 =ADFCJ98 CIHG=89

CDH=CB C: KCF?9FG F5=G9G H<9=F K5;9G HC 5@ACGH CWG9H H<9 8FCD =B 69B9OH 9BH=H@9A9BHG ,<9 F9:CFAG HC H<9 IB9AD@CMA9BH CV79G A5M <5J9 =ADFCJ98 A5H7< 9V7=9B7M 6IH H<9 9LH9BH HC K<=7< =G 8=V7I@H HC DF98=7H H<9CF9H=75@@M B 95F@M GHI8M H<5H 5=A98 5H 9AD=F=75@@M 5GG9GG=B; H<9 GI779GG C: H<9 F9:CFAG =B H<=G F9GD97H =G 5<F 5B8 +IB89 K<C 9GH=A5H9 5B 5;;F9;5H9 A5H7<=B; :IB7H=CB IG=B; 85H5 CB KCF?9F PCKG ,<9M OB8 H<5H H<9 F9:CFA GH5;9G 5FHN !! 5B8 !!! A5M <5J9 =ADFCJ98 A5H7< 9V7=9B7M 6M 69HK99B 5B8 D9F79BH -G=B; H<9 @5HH9F J5@I9 HC =B7F95G9 H<9 A5H7< 9V7=9B7M D5F5A9H9F =B CIF AC89@

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9W97H C: H<9 F9:CFAG CB H<9 IB9AD@CMA9BH F5H9 KCI@8 69 56CIH D9F79BH5;9 DC=BHG

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,<9 HF5BG=H=CB5@ 8MB5A=7G C: H<9 97CBCAM 5:H9F H<9 7<5B;9 C: H<9 K9@:5F9 GMGH9A CW9FG GCA9 :IFH<9F =BG=;<HG ,C =B=H=5@=N9 H<9 GH5H9 :FCA K<=7< H<9 HF5BG=H=CB 69;=BG K9 A9F;9 H<9 A5GG9G C: KCF?9FG =B H<9 8=W9F9BH IB9AD@CMA9BH 69B9OHG 69:CF9 H<9 F9:CFAG =BHC H<9 IB9AD@CMA9BH 69B9OH 5:H9F H<9 F9:CFA 6M G?=@@ =;IF9 G<CKG H<9 58>IGHA9BH C: H<9 IB9AD@CMA9BH F5H9 =B H<9 5;;F9;5H9 5B8 C: =HG 7CADCB9BHG =FGH C: 5@@ H<9 HF5BG=H=CB H5?9G D@579 F9@5H=J9@M :5GH ,<9 A5=B =AD57H C: H<9 F9:CFA HC H<9 69B9OH GHFI7HIF9 <5G

(34)

H5?9B D@579 5:H9F 56CIH H<F99 M95FG 9J9B H<CI;< H<9 IB9AD@CMA9BH F5H9 7CBH=BI9G HC :5@@ :IFH<9F =B GI6G9EI9BH D9F=C8G !BH9F9GH=B;@M H<9 GHFCB;9GH F98I7H=CB =G =B H<9 BIA69F C: IBG?=@@98 KCF?9FG K<=7< 5F9 H<CG9 H<5H <58 @CGH H<9=F G?=@@G 5@F958M 5B8 5F9 H<IG ACGH @=?9@M HC 69 @CB;H9FA IB9AD@CM98 IFH<9F =BJ9GH=;5H=CB F9J95@G H<5H H<9 :F57H=CB C: H<9 @CKG?=@@98 IB9AD@CM98 K=H< <=;< 69B9OH @9J9@G 8FCDG D5FH=7I@5F@M GHFCB;@M

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0 1 2 3 4 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Unemployment rate Years P erc ent total high-skilled low -skilled

&CH9 ,<9 O;IF9 G<CKG H<9 58>IGHA9BH 8MB5A=7G :FCA H<9 DF9F9:CFA GH958M GH5H9 HC H<9 DCGHF9:CFA GH958M GH5H9 ,CH5@ IB9AD@CMA9BH GC@=8 6@57? @=B9 C: K<=7< @CKG?=@@98 IB9AD@CMA9BH 85G<8CHH98 F98 @=B9 5B8 <=;<G?=@@ IB9AD@CMA9BH 85G<98 ;F99B @=B9

,<9 AC89@ F9J95@G 5 AI7< @5F;9F 89;F99 C: =B9FH=5 H<5B H<9 GH5B85F8 G95F7< 5B8 A5H7< =B; AC89@ !B G=AD@9 J9FG=CBG C: H<5H AC89@ CB9 75B DFCLM :CF 7M7@=75@ 7<5B;9G 6M 7CB 8I7H=B; GH958MGH5H9 7CAD5F=GCBG 8I9 HC H<9 :57H H<5H @56CF A5F?9H H=;<HB9GG 5B8 IB9A D@CMA9BH =BGH5BH5B9CIG@M 58>IGH _{!B AC89@G K=H< <9H9FC;9B9=HM H<=G B998 BC @CB;9F 69}

HFI9 _{CF 9L5AD@9 =B CIF AC89@ H<9 577IAI@5H=CB C: G?=@@G 89H57<9G KCF?9FG GCA9K<5H}

:FCA ACJ9A9BHG =B @56CF A5F?9H H=;<HB9GG 6F95?=B; H<9 H=;<H @=B? 69HK99B H<9=F K5;9G

_{+99 (=GG5F=89G 5B8 +<=A9F}

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Transitions in the German labor market: Structure and crisis