Market Reporting
Consulting
Events
Asian LPG pricing & development
Argus Media group notices
• The Argus Media group (referred to herein as “Argus”) makes no representations or warranties or other assurance, express or implied, about the accuracy or suitability of any information in this presentation and related materials (such as handouts, other presentation documents and recordings and any other materials or information distributed at or in connection with this presentation).
• The information or opinions contained in this presentation are provided on an “as is” basis without any warranty, condition or other representation as to its accuracy, completeness, or suitability for any particular purpose and shall not confer rights or remedies upon the recipients of this presentation or any other person. Data and information contained in the presentation come from a variety of sources, some of which are third parties outside Argus’ control and some of which may not have been verified.
• All analysis and opinions, data, projections and forecasts provided may be based on assumptions that are not correct or which change, being dependent upon fundamentals and other factors and events subject to change and uncertainty; future results or values could be materially different from any forecast or estimates described in the presentation.
• To the maximum extent permitted by law, Argus expressly disclaims any and all liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage, claims, costs and expenses, whether arising in negligence or otherwise, in connection with access to, use or application of these materials or suffered by any person as a result of relying on any information included in, or omission from, this presentation and related materials or otherwise in connection therewith.
• The information contained in this presentation and related materials is provided for general information purposes only and should not be construed as legal, tax, accounting or investment advice or the rendering of legal, consulting, or other professional services of any kind. Users of these materials should not in any manner rely upon or construe the information or resource materials in these materials as legal, or other professional advice and should not act or fail to act based upon the
information in these materials.
• Copyright notice: Copyright © 2020 Argus Media group. All rights reserved. All intellectual property rights in this presentation and the information herein are the exclusive property of Argus and and/or its licensors and may only be used under licence from Argus. Without limiting the foregoing, you will not copy or reproduce any part of its contents (including, but not limited to, single prices or any other individual items of data) in any form or for any purpose whatsoever without the prior written consent of Argus.
A view of Argus
Copyright © 2021 Argus Media group. All rights reserved.
•
One of the world’s leading PRAs, Argus has more than
1000 staff members and offices in the world’s principal
commodity trading and production centres
•
Publishing more than 11,000 daily spot and forward price
assessments, plus market intelligence for world
commodities markets
•
Coverage includes:
◦
Energy, including oil, natural gas, power, coal,
asphalt, base oils, biomass, emissions and more
◦
Agriculture/Fertilizers
◦
Petrochemicals
◦
Metals
•
Services
◦
Price reporting and indexation
◦
Consulting
◦
Conferences
•
Indexation examples
◦
US crude oil
◦
European gasoline
◦
Asia-Pacific LPG
◦
Coal
Argus covers the international LPG market daily
•
Argus International LPG services
include daily coverage of the global
LPG market (Asia, Middle East,
Europe, Americas), including prices,
terminal fees, freight and more
•
Markets rely on Argus for
market-moving news, analysis and insights
•
Argus assesses international LPG
Copyright © 2021 Argus Media group. All rights reserved.
Argus LPG World
Argus LPG Outlook
Argus International
LPG Forward Curves
Argus LPG Analytics
Argus International
LPG
•
US vs. Middle East LPG supply: US is increasingly
important in Asia
•
LPG prices in Asia: Argus Far East Index (AFEI) and Saudi
CP
•
New price indexes for China: CFR Ningbo and PRD index
Key LPG trade flows into Asia: US competes with Mideast Gulf in
2020
Copyright © 2021 Argus Media group. All rights reserved.
Key US LPG export flow
Key Mideast Gulf export flow
US Exports: 50 mn t/yr
Mideast Gulf
Exports 39 mn
t/yr
Algeria Exports:
6.8 mn t/yr
Other major export flow
Russia Exports: 3.6 mn
t/yr
Australia Exports:
3 mn t/yr
China: 20 mn t
Japan: 10 mn t
Korea: 7 mn t
Indonesia:
6 mn t
India: 15 mn t
Top 5 Global Importers’ Supply Origin
US
Mideast Gulf
Other
Norway Exports: 5
Where does US LPG go?
•
Asia-Pacific is now
home to more
than half of US
Exports
0 40 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Asia-Pacific 0 40 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Europe 0 40 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Latin America 2.8 29.8 9.4 12.1US Seaborne Exports by Destination, 2020
Nederland, Energy Transfer
HSC, Enterprise
HSC, Targa
Freeport, P66
Marcus Hook，Energy
Transfer
Chesapeake
NGL Energy Partners
•
Altagas Ridley Island
•
Pembina Watson Island
•
Petrogas, Ferndale WA
•
Pacific Traverse
North American LPG export terminals
Terminal expansion (incl. ethane), ‘000b/d
Company
2019
capacity
2020
expansion
Total by end
of 2020
Future plan
Enterprise Houston, TX
835
835
260
Targa Houston, TX
233
267
500
Philips 66, Freeport, TX
200
200
Energy Transfer,
Nederland, TX
265
235
500
Energy Transfer Orbit,
Nederland, TX (ethan)
175
175
Energy Transfer, Marcus
Hook, PA (LPG & ethane)
340
340
Occidental, Corpus
Christi, TX
100
100
Buckeye Partners, Corpus
Christi, TX
70
70
Petrogas, Ferndale WA
30
30
Altagas Ridley Island
50
50
30
NGL Energy Partners,
Chesapeake, VA
12
12
Pacific Traverse
45
Pembina Pipeline
25
Permico, Corpus Christi,
TX
130
Total capacity
2,135
677
2,812
230
Copyright © 2021 Argus Media group. All rights reserved.
Argus Far East Index
Saudi Aramco Contract Price
Daily
Monthly
Cfr
Fob
Assessed on deals/bids/offers
“Black box” Producer price – uses CP term
customer recommendations
Propane: 132mn tonnes swaps in 2020, 9% up
from 2019
Propane: 64mn tonnes swaps, 4% down from
2019
Argus Propane Far East Index: Basics of Methodology
•
Location: Japan, Chiba/Kawasaki
•
Size: 23,000t (half VLGC)
•
Delivery timing 25-40 days forward
•
Specifications – in line with the Ginga Forward Contract
AFEI assessment: example
AFEI assessment: example
Copyright © 2021 Argus Media group. All rights reserved.
AFEI is increasingly used as an LPG pricing basis around Asia and
beyond
•
AFEI has become widely
widely used in recent years —
for both spot and term
contracts
•
AFEI netback is used for both
Canada exports and by most
producers in the Middle east.
•
New production such as
off-shore Australia
•
Saudi Arabia uses internally
for LPG sales to the
petrochemical sector
•
All alongside core usage in
Japan, Korea, China.
North American
exports
AFEI offers value vs the Saudi CP
Copyright © 2021 Argus Media group. All rights reserved.
• The Argus Far East
Index was at a flat
discount to the CP for
most of 2020 – a
reflection of the
competing sources of
LPG into Asia-Pacific
• The final quarter price
rise has changed the
picture somewhat,
mainly due to the
rising freight.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Jan-19 Mar-19 May-19 Jul-19 Sep-19 Nov-19 Jan-20 Mar-20 May-20 Jul-20 Sep-20 Nov-20 Jan-21 Mar-21
Propane Argus FEI & Saudi CP
Propane Argus Far East Index (AFEI)
Propane Saudi Aramco CP month 1
AFEI offers value vs the Saudi CP
Copyright © 2021 Argus Media group. All rights reserved.
