In 1776, Adam Smith (1723-1790) by publishing his great economics book, Wealth of Nations, established Modern Economics. But from creation of capitalism economic system Recessions and Depressions and economic downturns have been experienced. Karl Marks (1818-1883), great German economist and sociologist believed in that recessions and economic crises are the nature of the capitalism economic system. Economists as Schumpeter (Schumpeter, 1939) are arguing that business cycles can be predicted, but some others like Mankiw (Mankiw, 2007) and Romer (Romer, 2006) are saying no. There is no doubt, however, that the Great Depression was one of the world's largest downturns in economic history. It inspired John Maynard Keynes to develop his revolutionary theory. He argued that economy can be recovered by boosting consumer spending. The Great Depression was overcome by several Keynes inspired economic programs and stimulation between 1933 and 1935.Several recessions and economic downturns had occurred since then. There is little doubt that, the relevance of Keynsian economics is being questioned during every economic downturn in the previous century. A result of that is the rather influential works of authors such as Fausto Vicarelly and Paul Krugman. In 2007 new recessions started. Many economists are comparing recession of 2007-2009 with the Great Depression. Many governments have already adopted fiscal stimulus plans and lowered interest rates as close to zero (Funa, University of Ljubljana, 2009).
This paper deals with the impacts of the economiccrisis on the world trade in order to highlight the mutual interdependence of the development of the world output and trade. The paper observes mutual correlation in development of the world trade and output. The results of the analysis indicate that changes in the value of world GDP and world trade are correlated by more than 90%. It is important to mention that in the years 2000–2009, the value of world trade and world output increased signiﬁ cantly (although in 2009, a signiﬁ cant decline in both value and volume of global production and trade was recorded due to the crisis). In relation to the world trade, it should be noted that its commodity structure is dominated by trade in manufactures. The crisis that occurred in the period 2008–2009 greatly aﬀ ected the world economy and trade in particular. In this respect it should be pointed out that the crisis mainly aﬀ ected trade in manufactures and then trade in fuels and mining outputs in terms of both absolute and relative indicators. Agrarian trade dealt with the crisis the best and the impact of the crisis on development of its values and volume was the least signiﬁ cant. This veriﬁ es the fact that agrarian and food products tend to be the most resistant to the crisis (on contrary, in times of global economic growth or reconstruction, the trade in agrarian and food products shows lower degree of elasticity in relation to the global GDP growth in comparison to other segments of commodities trade).
The second major factor explaining the relatively good performance of the world economy during the present downturn has been the unexpected and welcome degree of cooperation between countries, symbolized by their adoption of coordinated global measures through the creation of the G20. This grouping includes all leading advanced countries and a number of emerging nations that together constitute about 85 per cent of world production and about two thirds of the world population. In 2009 the G20 agreed to a huge international stimulus even when many of them already had fiscal deficits. It was also agreed to cut interest rates and to strengthen the IMF and World Bank in order to help developing countries. This high degree of cooperation stands in striking contrast to the lack of cooperation and beggar-thy- neighbou r policies that characterized nation states’ behavio ur in the 1930s. 5 See further Felix (2002), Nurkse (1944) and Madison (1985).
The economiccrisis has scared the politicians. Leaders of some European Union countries are calling for a slowdown in efforts to curb emissions of greenhouse gases due to the growing economiccrisis. Under huge pressure to shield German industry from the cost of going green, however, Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor, fights to reverse key goals that she once championed. Under a plan adopted by the EU in 2007, member countries pledged to reduce such emissions by 20% below 1990 levels by 2020, which is far more ambitious than the Kyoto Protocol. Merkel was then the “Iron Lady” who pushed through tough climate change targets to show that Europe could lead the world in beating global warming. However, in December 2008, she demanded free carbon credits for 90 to 100 per cent of German factories until 2020 – blowing a hole in a key climate change scheme 5 . Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi of Italy and the leaders of some Eastern European countries, like Poland, pointed out as well that due to the crisis, they were no longer able to finance the high costs of attaining the 2020 goal and so weren’t prepared to adopt a detailed plan.
The volatility of information is a feature of the contemporary business environment which burdensome the task for managers and determines a high risk of forecasts. What it is communicated today, tomorrow it may not be valid or it might be exactly the opposite. Therefore the forecasts have become highly risky so that the optimistic statements of some companies managers may become ridiculous over only a few weeks. A revealing example in this regard is that of Automobile Dacia in Romania: the general manager, Francois Fourmont declared in October 2008 that although the automobile market is in crisis, they couldn't talk about a real crisis within the company. He has argued that the economic pattern given by the price/quality ratio makes is less vulnerable to the crisis. A few days later, the manager of Dacia was declaring that in the world financial economiccrisis circumstances, the second-hand import had strongly affected the activity of the car making companies in Romania. Then followed news of the temporary closure and production suspension to adjust demand/supply ratio 14 .
The international financial crisis which hit the world since approximately two years now is presented as the worst financial crisis ever seen since the 1929 great depression. Philippe Waechter (2008), the economic research director of Natixis Asset, observes that “ the crisis has shaken the largest banks of industrialized countries; a crisis which forced the Central Bank of America to innovate its intervention methods in order to allow for the financial system to function again. A crisis which showed to the world that the American economy can no longer survive by itself and that it needs the cumulated capitals from Asia and the oil- producing economies; a crisis which has lasted because it touched the American households’ real estate capacities” . Although it seemed to concern first the US sub-prime market (Bénard, 2008), the crisis has progressively spread across the whole of the financial markets through derived products, securitization of bank credits and allocation of credits. Risk incentives, i.e. the extra remuneration solicited by creditors to cover the attached risks, have increased over products emanating from securitization, reflecting an increase in failure probabilities and a small need for risks. Lack of transparency linked to multiplication of intermediation between lenders and borrowers has rapidly provoked a trust crisis. Setting of assets to market value forced banks to immediately record the drop of their value. Starting from summer 2007, banks have thus allowed in their accounts assets depreciations in each quarter.
The roots the Russian Federation’s health crisis are not entirely, or even primarily, in its health care system. High mortality and morbidity, particu- larly among working-age men, reflect factors that transcend the health system—population aging, rapid urbanization, changing lifestyles, and risky behaviors. Spending more money on health care is necessary. But that will not be enough to sus- tainably improve health outcomes. A multisectoral strategy is needed—one that addresses the poor health outcomes, the rising health expenditures, and the structural reforms needed to improve health care organization and service delivery. The task will be complex, requiring attention over the medium to long term. The new government should address it—forcefully—as soon as possible. The health challenges—poor outcomes, insufficient spending
emergence of the acute phase of the economiccrisis in the fall of 2008 quickly stopped talking about having to rely on the will of the market, giving quietly dying investment banks, etc. Governments have taken measures to support aggregate demand via fiscal policy tools, have a variety of financial assistance to the largest companies, have taken additional measures on social support of the households; the central banks have met rapidly increased demand of economic agents for money in a rush to the liquidity through the instruments of monetary policy. A special attention was paid to the problems of the stability of the entire financial sector and support of the backbone financial institutions. New principal feature of these actions was their international coordination within the framework of the G-20 in the new interconnected global economy (with the shift in the United States occurred during the Republican administration G. Bush-Junior). It should be noted that everybody observed the stylized fact that, in practice, no Government in the Group G-20 relied on the healing powers of free market and allowed to price mechanisms alone to overcome economic recession and restore economic growth.
private financial frictions more symmetrically and allows the model to better track the observed time paths of the interest rate variables. The inclusion of the preference shock also plays a significant role in our extended model, with large preference shocks having negative impacts on consumption in the third quarter of 2001, coinciding with the events of 9/11, and in the last two quarters of 2008, coinciding with collapse of Lehman Brothers. The estimated model also provides a more intuitive picture of the evolution of the U.S. economy during the six decades following World War II and in particular highlights the impact of the Federal Reserve’s tight monetary policy during the 1980’s and early 1990’s. Finally, the alternative method of shock decomposition that we employ, arguably better isolates the impact of the shocks that actually occurred during the crisis and pre crisis periods, differentiating them from the influence of previously occurring shocks which are incorporated into the initial conditions prior to the crisis. Our presentation of the shock decomposition produces an intuitive description of the 2007–2008 period as one with a number of large offsetting shocks, with positive monetary policy and fiscal policy shocks partially offsetting large negative financial friction and preference shocks.
Coming to the reform of welfare states, one can say that the existing literature that tries to explain reforms in European welfare states mainly focuses on the theory of ‘path dependence’. This theory states that past events shape the future and that reforms mainly occur in so-called package deals, which means that reforms in one policy area have to be supplemented by reforms in another policy area (Ebbinghaus, 2005; Eichhorst & Konle-Seidl, 2006). Consequently, it is claimed that it are mainly ‘long-term historical political forces’ (Ebbinghaus, 2005, p. 18) which shape a welfare state regime. Additionally, self-reinforcing processes are important for the development of a certain regime. To illustrate the theory of path dependence more figurative, one should take a closer look at the concept developed by Paul A. David and Brian W. Arthur. They used an urn with two same-sized sets of differently coloured balls. When a ball is drawn from the urn, it is put back and another ball of the same colour is added to the jar. Thus, the chance of drawing the same colour in the following round is somewhat increased. Consequently, in the long run one colour will dominate within the urn (Ebbinghaus, 2005). This concept can also be applied to European welfare states. If every time the same kind of policies will be issued, in the end one kind of policy will be dominant. However, according to van Gerven (2008), there are many theorists, like Ebbinghaus, Hering and Pierson, who claim that the path dependence theory does not totally hold true, but that there is also some kind of 'path departure' (VAN GERVEN, 2008, p. 27). This means that they are of the opinion that in some areas of the welfare state changes can be made by partially adjusting the welfare state to the new situation and thus partially renewing the structures of the institutions (VAN GERVEN, 2008). As an example Hering (2003), names the pension reform in Germany in 2001. Originally, Germany was one of the countries that relied most on path dependence, that means it was resistant against major welfare state reforms. However, in 2001 the government implemented a major reform by partially privatizing the German pension system (Hering, 2003). Consequently, one can say that although Welfare States may rather rely on their familiar paths of policy making, it may also happen that partially major reforms will be introduced.
The world experienced in 2008-2009 the most severe recession since 1930, affecting the real economy of most countries. As Stiglitz (2009) points out, the crisis that began in the U.S. in 2007 has affected all countries of the world through some channels. The most direct channel was the financial markets through reverse capital flows and deleveraging of the global banking system, which culminated in sharp devaluation of national currencies, mainly in emerging countries. Another channel was the unprecedented fall in exports. In addition, there are impacts on labor and capital flows. However, each developing region reacted differently to the crisis (International Monetary Fund [IMF], 2010; World Bank, 2011a). In particular, the impact of the crisis in so-called BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) was not as intense as compared to other developed countries 6 .
eventual dominance of neoliberalism as a political ideology in the 1980s, which herald- ed a “ neo-liberal age ” (Mudge 2008, 703; see also Hall and Soskice 2001) in which free markets are elevated and celebrated as the central component for individual and collec- tive prosperity and freedom (Campbell and Pedersen 2001; Fourcade and Heely 2007; Kelly 1997). This neoliberal hegemony is understood to have global reach: as well as coming to dominate the domestic politics of developed countries it was exported to de- veloping countries during a period known as the “ Washington Consensus ” (see Gore 2000; Williamson 1993, 2009). The impact of this global new consensus upon domestic party politics was profound, and indeed Mudge (2008, 704) stated that across the West- ern world, “ specialists in comparative politics cite the decline of partisan identities with- in the electorates ” and “ the rise of professional political parties that do not adhere to ‘ old ’ ideological divides. ” Further, she added. “[b] y the 1990s, some understood neolib- eralism’s widespread manifestations as “‘ proof ’ of its ontological unassailability ” (Mudge 2008, 704).
The second challenge is to intensify the efforts to diversify the economy, strengthen institutions as well as the financial sector for sustained, long-term growth. Oil and gas exports continue to account for more than two-thirds of Russia’s export revenue and more than 15 percent of GDP. But the crisis shows how dependent the Russian economy is on oil prices and how much it needs to diversify and strengthen its financial sector for sustained, long-term growth. Despite strong macroeconomic fundamentals, structural weaknesses in the banking sector and a limited economic base make Russia vulnerable to highly correlated, multiple shocks of a decline in oil price, a sudden reversal in capital flows, and a drop in the market sentiment and the stock market. Russia’s economic recovery will depend largely on its ability to regain the confidence of domestic consumers and domestic and foreign investors. The crisis can be a catalyst for continuing the structural reforms to improve productivity and the business climate and fiscal reforms to strengthen the economy’s non-oil tax base. The way forward is diversification through greater openness, greater macroeconomic stability, more use of cutting-edge technology and knowhow, more foreign direct investments, and a stronger and healthier banking system.
Abstract: After the introduction of Liberalization, Privatization and Globalization by the name of economic reforms Indian economy has been integrated with the global economy. This integration enabled India to move on high growth path but that integration exposed Indian economy to adverse impacts from the world economy. India’s share in the world trade is less than 2 per cent. India’s vision in the world trade is not only earning foreign exchange but also to induce the economic growth and development. To achieve this vision India is trying to increase its exports. But the 2008 global economiccrisis has hindered this effort. Since the globalization, it is explicit that the shocks in the world economy may affect the Indian economy also. There is a need to assess those effects on our economy is the need of the hour.
challenges. As noted above, the lack of a cohesive and effective EU political leadership, the declining trust in the EU and the on-going alteration of political and party dynamics within the member states are placing Europe and its institutions under considerable strain. The aim of this collection of articles emerges from the need to shed light on the roots, manifestations and implications of such pressures. To achieve this, we take the 2014 European Parliament elections as a starting point for analysis. Such an approach rests on the view that the 2014 European Parliament electoral round epitomises, in a most profound way, the idiosyncrasies implicit in the EU project. Taking place at a time when the effects of the economiccrisis and the consequent dissatisfaction with austerity measures were still sharply felt by EU citizens, the 2014 elections were an important test for the European Union and for the institution of democracy within and across EU member states. In many respects, although European Parliament elections are often described as ‘second order’, this time around the vote for the European Parliament seemed to challenge such a view. In spite of, or perhaps due to, the multiple crises described above, which are undermining the very foundations of the European Union as a political project, the EU is playing an increasingly central role in the public debate and has been thrust centre stage. Albeit framed mainly in a negative sense (i.e. with more reference to flaws than to virtues), the 2014 European Parliament elections coincided with an increased politicisation of the EU and with a profound alteration of the dynamics of representation underpinning the European sphere, which in turn affected domestic political and party systems. The articles in this collection provide fresh insights on these issues, as is discussed in the following sections.
To our knowledge this is the first review on the effects of the 2008economiccrisis on children’s health. One modelling study estimated a negative impact on infant and child mortality in sub-Saharan countries; and in Greece such impact on mortality was shown by using registered data in another study. Furthermore, quantitative and qualitative studies documented changes in food consumption and nutrition worldwide with specific impact on most vulnerable population. Other studies showed an increase in non-accidental injuries and in social inequalities in perceived health and health-related quality of life in some countries. This review also highlights the gaps in knowledge on the subject and the need for studies to generate sufficient evidence to inform effective measures to mitigate the negative impact of the economiccrisis on child health.
Walking is a sustainable transport mode available to everyone at no cost. It is the fundamental transport mode and the way that every route starts and ends (Krambeck and Shah, 2008). The safer and more convenient the walking environment is, more citizens will prefer walking rather than using other transport modes, mainly for short distance urban trips. There are major benefits drawn from the promotion of walking at urban level. Pedestrians do not consume fuel to travel, they do not pollute the air and they do not create noise. In urban areas the choice to walk depends on many factors. Shay et al. (2003) propose two groups of factors that influence walking: ability and motivation. Motivation factors relate to personal or social characteristics. However, only with the presence of the ability factors can the motivation factors be operational in order to promote walking.
Since 70's most of European socialist countries established formal and legal basis for direct capital cooperation with other countries. First regulations regarding foreign investments were established in 1972 in Hungary, later in Poland and Romania (1976), Bulgaria (1980), Czech Republic (1986) and finally – the Soviet Union (1987). In every of above mentioned countries a lot of efforts were made in order to encourage western countries to invest, such as: legal acts, tax releases, possibility to transfer profits and capitals into their genuine countries and so on . Between 80's and 90's it turned out that the historical political change in the Central and Eastern Europe resulted in serious economiccrisis. It was caused mainly by an intent to replace economic systems (planned centrally) with the one applied in the Western Europe – capitalism. Restructuring programs caused mass unemployment while opening of the domestic markets for foreign goods resulted in inflow of foreign products and elimination of the domestic ones. Finally, situation of local enterprises became much worse . Despite negative effects of the transformation process the Central and Eastern Europe rejected model of political monolith and the economic model oriented to the economy of the former Soviet Union. Long-term economic relations, agreements, bilateral and multilateral arrangements, priorities and standards were terminated. There came the capitalism. Based on private property and individual initiative, implemented in difficult and unfavorable economic & market circumstances and social ones. Political system changes and consequent privatization of the national property in this region of Europe made that the foreign investors became interested in cheap market. Under circumstances of general capital deficit on the international money market the European countries' authorities had to encourage foreign partners to invest in Europe. A result was a quick growth in trade volume between so called "Eastern countries" and "Western countries" of the Europe.
The level of social inequalities and social gradients during childhood in itself can also have an important role on health outcomes both in the short and the longer term . Mechanisms of social protection (such as social welfare payments) implemented by countries are likely to be effective in mitigating the effects of economic shocks on child health , but austerity measures adopted in many countries during the current economiccrisis have reduced social protection mechanisms, thus potentially contributing to increased health inequalities [1,3]. Some studies have reported on the impact of the current economiccrisis on families and children in Greece , Spain [17,18], the UK , and the U.S. . In Greece youth unemployment rose from 18.6% to 40.1% from 2008 to 2011. In Spain, child poverty increased by 53% between 2007 and 2010. There are an estimated 3.5 million children living in poverty in the UK and this figure is expected to increase by 600,000 by 2015/2016 . However, few data exist on the impact of the current economiccrisis on child health so it is important to summarise what we know across studies reporting to date.