Climate Change Uncertainty and the Future
Future water availability in selected European catchments: a probabilistic assessment of seasonal flows under the IPCC A1B emission scenario using response surfaces
... of climate change have mostly been based on alternative but equally likely greenhouse gas emission scenarios, which are used in climate model experiments to generate climate scenarios (UKCP09, ...
9
Future changes and uncertainty in decision-relevant measures of East African climate
... although future consideration of other sources of uncertainty may increase the spread of possible futures ...of climate change on immediate critical decisions amongst sectoral experts and ...
20
Building narratives to characterise uncertainty in regional climate change through expert elicitation
... plausible future precipitation change (box 1 and figure ...precipitation change expected for each narrative, but highlighted the potential importance of uncertainties in precipita- tion variability, ...
11
Impacts of climate change under CMIP5 RCP scenarios on the streamflow in the Dinder River and ecosystem habitats in Dinder National Park, Sudan
... the change range is ± 46 % in all other ...the future period of the 2080s showed an upward trend with a slight difference in the magnitude in some months compared to the baseline ...of change in ...
23
Framing Climate Uncertainty: Frame Choices Reveal and Influence Climate Change Beliefs
... precipitation change due to climate change, they selected a verbal frame that matched their perceptions of the severity of future cli- mate change consequences (study ...precipitation ...
18
Modelling pesticide leaching under climate change: parameter vs climate input uncertainty
... present climate conditions and condi- tions for the end of the 21st century for the particular case of a well-structured clay soil in south-western ...for future climate conditions vary locally and ...
13
Uncertainty in climate change projections of discharge for the Mekong River Basin
... of climate change on freshwater re- sources within the river ...quantify uncertainty in these projections associated with GCM structure and cli- mate sensitivity, as well as from hydrological model ...
13
Uncertainty of Climate Change and Synoptic Parameters and modeling the trends
... Data from five meteorological observatories in the selected stations were used in the analysis of climate change. The observed monthly and annual mean temperature, the estimated moving average and the ...
12
Regional climate model data used within the SWURVE project – 1: projected changes in seasonal patterns and estimation of PET
... Water: Uncertainty, Risk and Vulnerability in Europe) project, assessing the risk posed by future climatic change to various hydrological and hydraulic systems were obtained from the regional ...
15
Ensembles and uncertainty in climate change impacts
... evaluating climate adaptation options (IPCC, 2012; Figure 1): “top-down” and ...top-down climate models, scenario, impacts-first approach starts with the question: “how will future climate ...
7
Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change
... and future time period (2070-2099) was selected as one with extreme expected changes in temperature and precipitation over the next 100 years for a sensitivity ...in climate are included in the model ...
26
Intercomparison of different uncertainty sources in hydrological climate change projections for an alpine catchment (upper Clutha River, New Zealand)
... The uncertainty linked to the snow model, which showed a pronounced seasonal variation (ranging from 3 % in spring to 10 % in winter), was found to be smaller when compared to the other components, but the ...
18
Climate Change and Future Pollen Allergy in Europe
... and future ragweed pollen levels (previously developed within Atopica®) with published data on sensitization rates and population ...the future expansion of ragweed’s range under different climate ...
8
Risk and Uncertainty Regarding Inuit Transportation in the Face of Climate Change
... of future heartache. With the Arctic climate becoming more hazardous, the likelihood for either of these technologies to “break down” and expose the forager to the harsh sea ice landscape increases as ...
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Declining uncertainty in transient climate response as CO2 forcing dominates future climate change
... Based on data from Intergovernmental 17 Panel of Climate Change IPCC reports, we show that the evolution of increased 18 anthropogenic forcing and its reduced relative uncertainty betwee[r] ...
20
Hantavirus reservoir Oligoryzomys longicaudatus spatial distribution sensitivity to climate change scenarios in Argentine Patagonia
... on Climate Change (IPCC) ...global climate models that climate changes projected over the southern Andes for the last part of the twenty-first century will be mainly associated with ...
10
The prey of uncertainty: Climate change as opportunity
... the climate meetings in Cancún, Shell, BP and Chevron each claimed that climate policy has made it possible for them to forego any projection of peak ...a future in which oil runs out. Instead, they ...
25
Validation of AOGCMs Capabilities for Simulation Length of Dry Spells under the Climate Change in Southwestern Area of Iran
... of climate change prediction models for study the behavior of the climatic parame- ters in the future time is ...the uncertainty, AOGCMs were ...
10
Uncertainty as the Reason for Action: Last Opportunity and Future Climate Disaster
... to change our behaviour in time, we create not simply ‘dangers’ but fait accompli, rolling catastrophes to which future generations can try to adapt or from which they can attempt to flee (by, for example, ...
18
Ensemble Creation of Downscaled Climate Projections in the Southeast United States.
... Downscaled climate projections are used to deduce how the climate will change in future decades at local and regional ...the future uncertainty given the impact on adaptation ...
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