Forecast bias
THE ECONOMIC SIGNIFICANCE OF THE FORECAST BIAS
... Figure 3 illustrates the cumulative profits after imposing these costs. Comparing this figure with Figure 2, we see that the bid/ask spread costs have a large effect. The total profits for all of the trading strategies ...
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Improving warehouse labour efficiency by intentional forecast bias
... on forecast bias and labour productivity, we selected warehouses for which we knew how to find the right person in charge of manpower planning who has this exclusive ...of bias they usually applied ...
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A simultaneous equations analysis of analysts’ forecast bias and institutional ownership
... analysts’ forecast accuracy improves as the length of the forecast horizon declines (Ackert and Hunter (1994), Ackert and Athanassakos (1997), and Richardson, Teoh, and Wysocki ...the forecast date ...
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Earnings Predictability And Broker-Analysts’ Earnings Forecast Bias
... analyst forecast optimism ...forecast bias. Our results are consistent with managers preferring forecast pessimism for short-horizon quarterly earnings forecasts, and inconsistent with the ...
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Can earnings forecasts be improved by taking into account the forecast bias?
... and bias are among the main statistical observations regarding earnings forecasts ...average forecast. However, the evidence is strong that not only forecast dispersions, but also their means, are ...
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Earnings forecast bias - a statistical analysis
... earnings forecast histories of roughly 12 000 analysts working for 600 brokerage houses between 1983 and ...that forecast optimism also matters more for career concerns during the late ...optimism ...
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The Accuracy of Earnings Forecast and Post-ipo Earnings Management
... cast bias could be achieved either by revising earn- ing forecast or by manipulating reported profit using discretionary ...the forecast bias, par- ticularly optimistic forecast, by ...
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Relative impact of model quality and ensemble deficiencies on the performance of ensemble based probabilistic forecasts evaluated through the Brier score
... from forecast bias, and to a lower extent from the ensemble being systematically under-dispersive (or ...(iii) Forecast skill contributes very little to reliability in the absence of forecast ...
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The folly of forecasting: The effects of a disaggregated demand forecasting system on forecast error, forecast positive bias, and inventory levels
... opportunistic bias. We examine whether a disaggregation of the forecast into various sources of demand reduces forecast error and ...demand forecast error declines following the implementation ...
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Option compensation and optimism bias in management earnings forecasts
... mistic bias in their ...on forecast optimism are robust to including variables found to impact the earn- ings forecast bias in line with prior ...optimism bias in management earnings ...
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Information environment, market-wide sentiment and IPO initial returns: Evidence from analyst forecasts before listing
... average forecast bias is ...average forecast dispersion is 17% of the offering ...the forecast optimism is positive and significant at the 1% ...
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The Relative Accuracy of Management Earnings Forecast and Ipo Performance
... earnings forecast bias on the IPO after-market ...ings forecast and its relation to the IPO perfor- mance in ...of forecast bias on the short-run performance, while this study focuses ...
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Selection of Market Demand Forecast Methods: Criteria and Application
... the forecast method reasoning and forecast method classification under various economic literature ...main forecast method groups disclosed that it was rather difficult to determine the advantage of ...
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Short to sub seasonal hydrologic forecast to manage water and agricultural resources in India
... the forecast dates, predicted root-zone soil moisture (top 60 cm soil moisture; ...The bias corrected IITM ensemble showed higher cor- relations than the uncorrected IITM ensemble and ...The bias ...
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Three essays on financial intermediation
... CapEx forecast accuracy are about one fourth of marginal effects of ex-post earnings ...cash-flow forecast dummy seems to be counter-intuitive; however, this coefficient is insignificant in some of my ...
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Data assimilation cycle length and observation impact in mesoscale ocean forecasting
... ocean forecast systems like OceanMAPS, the largest errors tend to occur in regions of most rapidly growing dynamical instabilities (O’Kane et ...for forecast verification, ...
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Assimilation of GNSS tomography products into the Weather Research and Forecasting model using radio occultation data assimilation operator
... 1997). Operational assimilation of STDs into the MM5 sys- tem has shown a positive impact on the representation of wa- ter vapour field and precipitation; a reduction of the spin- up time of the model was also noticed ...
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Sensitivity analysis and optimisation to input variables using winGamma and ANN: A case study in automated residential property valuation
... a bias neuron in a hidden layer if ...a bias neuron is to allow a neural network to learn patterns more effectively (Heaton, ...a bias neuron never receives input from the previous layer because it ...
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Mediterranean Forecasting System: forecast and analysis assessment through skill scores
... of bias and AP has been computed in order to try to understand better how the method we have described for the forecast evaluation is related to the seasonal variability of the ...mean bias of ...
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2. FORECAST SYSTEM. 2.1 Forecast Displays
... LL forecast system: Marilyn Wolfson, Jim Evans, Richard Johnson, Kim Calden, Robert Boldi, Carol Wilson, Evelyn Mann, Haig Iskenderian, Jonathan Hurst and John ...
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