Overconfidence and performance
Entrepreneurial Overconfidence and its Impact Upon Performance
... that overconfidence in the forecasts of EBITDA and equity are strongly associated with an entrepreneur’s decision to file for financial ...entrepreneurial overconfidence by increasing the levels of ...
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Impacts of Manufacturer Overconfidence on Supply Chain Performance with Demand Forecasting
... of overconfidence on SC performance are similar under the MS and RS models, and the manufacturer is always more likely to benefit from his confidence under the RS model than under the MS ...the ...
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Overconfidence Can Improve an Agent's Relative and Absolute Performance in Contests
... of overconfidence in contests, neither of them considers relative payoff effects in their analysis (and we are not aware of any other paper that does ...relative performance of the ...
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Overconfidence and team-performance: An analysis of NBA-players' self-perception
... von Overconfidence mit Hilfe eines intuitiven Modells einer Team- Produktion mit komplementären ...dass Overconfidence nicht nur den Arbeitseinsatz des betroffenen Agenten erhöht, sondern gleichzeitig den ...
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Overconfidence in absolute and relative performance: The regression hypothesis and Bayesian updating
... no overconfidence, regression effects due to low and high anchor points, and extreme underconfidence (when people choose between multiple ...absolute performance when success depends on relative ...
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Investor Overconfidence, Over-extrapolation Bias, Mutual Fund Flow and Performance
... This process is analogous to investors pushing up the stock prices of firms with better prospects to generate high future cash flows, thereby eliminating any opportunities to earn risk‐adjusted returns by investing in ...
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Confirmation Bias, Overconfidence, and Investment Performance: Evidence from Stock Message Boards
... Our study is related to three distinct lines of research. First, our paper adds to a growing body of behavioral literature on virtual communities. It is well accepted that decision makers are often influenced by multiple ...
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Judgmental overconfidence, self-monitoring and trading performance in an experimental financial market
... Key words: Psychology and Finance, Overconfidence, Miscalibration, Self-Monitoring, Experimental Finance, Trading Game, Asymmetric Information, Winner’s Curse. Biais is at Toulouse University (IDEI-CRG-GREMAQ), ...
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Biased interpretation of performance feedback: The role of ceo overconfidence
... financial performance by comparing it to specific aspiration levels, which then in turn strongly shapes their risk-taking ...to performance feedback will fundamentally depend on how key decision makers such ...
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The Trouble with Overconfidence
... Participants then made confidence judgments regarding their answers. The results suggested a general tendency toward underconfidence in these judgments. However, other researchers replicate the hard/easy effect, wherein ...
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CEO Overconfidence and Innovation
... between overconfidence and two measures of innovative direction, based on the Hall, Jaffe and Trajten- berg (2001) measure of patent originality and a new measure based on self-citation ...that ...
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Overconfidence, optimism and entrepreneurship
... of overconfidence, and ...for overconfidence and optimism, future studies may want to use domain-specific measures such as overconfidence in entrepreneurial ...of overconfidence to a more ...
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Overconfidence and Trading Volume
... Overconfidence and Trading Volume Abstract Theoretical models predict that overconfident investors will trade more than rational ...individual overconfidence scores with several measures of trading volume ...
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The overconfidence hypothesis suggests that
... out- performance of cheap Japanese stocks in all growth categories is attributable partially to the unwinding of the Japanese valuation bubble, or perhaps continuing macro- economic disappointments in the Japanese ...
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Overconfidence, Gender and Skills
... returns will be and how precisely these can be estimated; and they expend too many resources (e.g., time and money) on investment information (Odean 1999). Overconfident investors also hold riskier portfolios than do ...
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Overconfidence and Trading Volume
... individual overconfidence scores with several measures of trading volume of individual investors (number of trades, ...of overconfidence (miscalibration, the better than average effect, illusion of control, ...
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What is your level of overconfidence? A strictly incentive compatible measurement of absolute and relative overconfidence.
... (implying overconfidence for small thresholds), only seven percent believe to be better than seventy-five percent (implying underconfidence for high ...relative performance, or takeover auctions, where the ...
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Overconfidence in a Career-Concerns Setting
... Keywords: overcon…dence, heterogeneous beliefs, career concerns. JEL Classi…cation: D83, D84, D86. 1 Introduction The presence of career concerns— concerns for the e¤ect of present outcomes on future compensation— ...
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The Effect Of Managerial Overconfidence On Leverage
... managerial overconfidence result in ex-post value destroying merger and acquisition ...the performance of their acquisition as they overestimate the benefits of the ...
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Overconfidence?
... Overcon…dence has been reported in peoples’beliefs in the precision of their estimates, in their beliefs about the likelihood their answers to questions are correct, and in their appraisal of their relative skills and ...
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