Comparison

Difference between the adjusted overall forecast and the sectorial analysis estimate: — in million grt — as a percentage + 24.6 + 1 1.2% — 0.8 - 0.3% + 36 + 13% + 2 + 0.6%

2. Necessary adjustment to the overall approach

For the two years studied, the sum of optimistic forecasts of the sectorial approach is lower than the single forecast of the overall approach, but the difference— less than 10% — is mainly due to the fact that the two studies do not cover quite the same fields.

Indeed, it must be stressed that the sectorial analysis did not deal with passenger vessels and that ships of under 1 000 grt were outside its terms of reference. Besides, it deals with the operational fleet only, which excludes, on one hand, the US reserve fleet and, on the other, the Great Lakes vessels. These latter units were left out of the overall approach but all other merchant ships of more than 100 grt are included, even those which will not be in service during the two years under study.

Therefore, the overall approach needs to be adjusted in order to allow a valid comparison. This adjustment consists in subtracting from the forecast formulated, the sum of estimates likely to be made for the tonnage that, in 1975 and 1980, the US reserve fleet, passenger vessels, and units between 100 and 1 000 grt might represent.

Allowance has been made for a decrease in the US reserve fleet due to super­ annuation, a stability in passenger-vessel tonnage on the assumption that the boom in cruises will offset the decline of regular lines and finally quite a fairly considerable increase in the tonnage of small ships, which is still on the increase, despite the rapid trend towards large units, since the tonnage of this group has grown by 12% between 1962 and 1966, i.e. a percentage hardly lower than that of shipping as a whole (13.6%).

3. General compatibility o f the forecasts established by the two studies

Adjusted in this way, the overall approach gives the same forecast for 1975 as the high estimate of the sectorial analysis, it remains superior by 11 % to the low estimate. Despite the different procedures, the two studies give compatible, even similar results. For 1980, the differences become slightly wider, but the correlation between the single forecast of the overall approach and the high estimate of the sectorial analysis remains very good.

On the whole, however, the overall approach appears to be more “optimistic” than the sectorial analysis, as regards the tonnage of the world fleet because, in 1975, the former foresees a figure reaching the higher level of the range of the latter and, in 1980, it even exceeds this level.

4. Differences in standpoints between estimates of future sea-borne tonnages and carrying

capacities

Is it to be inferred from this that the high estimate of the sectorial approach is to be taken into consideration rather than the low estimate? In fact, the first point to recall is that, in contrast with what we have just seen in the assessment of future merchant fleet tonnage, the best correlation between both studies, as regards fore­ casts on the volume of sea-borne trade, was found at the level of the low estimate of the sectorial analysis.

This change in the overall approach which, after seeming pessimistic at the first stage of the study, suddenly appears optimistic at the second one, calls for some explanation.

At first, one may think that, as the sectorial analysis was unable to enter into details sufficiently, it overlooked some of the potential for growth of the fleet, represented by very specialized types of traffic. It would, indeed, have been

desirable to study, for instance, the possible trend of the fleet of gas tankers or refrigerated cargo vessels. In fact, these specialized ships are included in the sectorial analysis, but in more general categories, in particular in the “other cargo vessels”.

Furthermore, these categories represent only a relatively marginal tonnage. For instance, the sea-borne trade of natural liquefied gas will show a strong expansion in the future, but during the period studied, the LNG carrier fleet cannot be expected to reach any substantial tonnage: methane carriers operating in 1975 are already almost all commissioned, under construction, on order or under considera­ tion. There will be about twenty at most, representing a total carrying capacity of 900 000 to 1 000 000 cu.m, i.e. a total deadweight of around 0.6 to 0.7m. tons, which is a negligible figure in comparison with that of the estimated level of the world fleet. Even if this figure trebled between 1975 and 1980, this fleet would attain about 2m. tdw only, which is much lower than the margin of error allowed by each forecast in the sectorial analysis. Let us also stress that a rise quicker than scheduled, in sea-borne methane trade, would result in a slackening in the expan­ sion rate adopted for cargoes of other fuels either liquid or solid.

On the other hand, it is certain that, during the next decade, completely new types of ship will appear, carrying commodities not yet known or marketed. However, past experience shows that the effect of new trades remains marginal for many years. Without reverting to the example of methane carriers, mentioned above, but keeping to the field of LPG tankers, let us note that the remarkable increase of this fleet over about twenty years has only added the equivalent of one million tons deadweight to the world’s merchant fleet.

Finally, the building of these new types of ship, should correlate to new additional traffic. The sectorial analysis is indeed already more optimistic in this field than the overall approach.

5. Future efficiency o f the fleet differently assessed by the tw o studies

It thus appears that the explanation of the difference in standpoints we have seen between the two studies is to be found in the ratio that each establishes between the volume of sea-borne cargoes and the size of the world fleet at each period considered.

In other words, the two studies have made different estimates of the future trend of the efficiency of merchant ships. Table XXX illustrates this.

To simplify the comparison, the sectorial analysis has been reduced to the mean average between the low and high estimates. Despite the fact that the figures concerning world fleet and sea-borne trade are not fully comparable in the two studies, the difference in standpoints between them is shown clearly by the Table: the sectorial analysis has allowed for a far greater improvement in efficiency than the overall approach, between 1966 and 1975, and the difference grows even wider between 1975 and 1980.

In other words, the sectorial analysis has anticipated— as regards world fleet effi­ ciency— early results from the technological revolution which is taking place in the shipping industry today. In fact, as only a modest increase in efficiency is estimated for tankers, bulk carriers and tramps, the “optimism” of the sectorial

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approach is mainly explained by the improvement in efficiency of ships designed to carry general and miscellaneous cargoes, expected from the more general use of modern handling systems and from the increase in service speeds.

On the other hand, the overall approach, according to the general thinking on which it is based, and because of the methods adopted, must assume that world fleet efficiency will not grow faster in the future than in the past, i.e. that there will be no sudden jump in the long-term trend of sea-borne trade.

At this stage, it has not seemed possible to choose between the two premises without compromising the basic thinking behind one of them.

Besides, as will be seen in the following chapter, this difference in standpoints tends to reduce at the level of estimated needs for newbuilding, as a rapid improve­ ment in the average efficiency of the world fleet— or a section of it—implies its renovation and consequently the acceleration of the scrapping of superannuated ships.

By the same token, if a large proportion of superannuated, less efficient, tonnage is kept in service, progress towards increased productivity is slowed down.

To meet an additional demand for sea transport, which is assumed to be the same in both cases, it is necessary, according to the first standpoint, to build more ships to meet replacement requirements; according to the second, the pace of new­ building must be raised to meet the need to expand the fleet.