The major objective of my dissertation is to move from a cross national to individual level of analysis and provide a more refined test of the rationalist explanation of forced migration. I demonstrate that there is variance in how individuals perceive and assess threat of violence. Towards this end, the dissertation is presented in two stages.
In the first stage, theoretical insights gained from cross-national analyses are extended to a study of forced migration at the subnational level. In “scaling down” (Snyder 2001), Chapter 2 uses count data from the Maoists “people’s war” in Nepal to conduct a
subnational analysis of displacement across the 75 district of the country. The findings provide a more refined test of existing large-n studies on the causes of forced migration.
Chapter 3 scales it down further to the individual level. Using the NFMS data, I test a number of hypotheses regarding the impact of factors such as violence, economic
conditions, physical infrastructure, social networks and demographic factors on forced migration. This chapter provides an individual-level test of the rational choice model of
30
forced migration, using data collected solely for the purpose of studying wartime forced migration.
Next, I present a model to understand possible coping mechanisms that individuals might use in living with conflict. Chapter 4 is devoted to explaining why the study of forced migration is incomplete without also understanding why some people do not flee during war. Using primary data collected during the survey, I provide a study of the coping strategies employed by individuals who chose to stay put during a civil war.
Chapter 5 concludes the dissertation with a summary of main findings and their implications for our understanding of the dynamics of forced migration. I also lay out some of the potential policy implications of my findings. A large majority of the people forcibly uprooted during armed conflicts are IDPs. This population is left at the mercy of home governments —often the very governments who have driven them from their homes. Direct involvement of the international community is discouraged until a formal request is made by the home government. Involvement in dealing with the IDPs is considered an encroachment upon a nation’s sovereignty. The home governments themselves are poor as most conflicts occur in underdeveloped or developing countries.
As discussed in Chapter 5, recent international political events have further aggravated the plight of the forced migrants. The empirical findings in this study offer options in dealing with this quagmire and the grave humanitarian issues by suggesting alternative mechanisms such as investment in creating economic opportunities, building social networks and other coping alternatives.
31
Chapter 2–The Plight of the Forgotten Ones, Civil War and Forced Migration
When a community experiences or fears murder, rape, kidnapping, destruction of their homes or looting, flight is a natural reaction (Olivier Bangerter, FMR 2011).
32
Adding value to existing aggregate cross-national analyses on forced migration, this chapter uses sub-national level data to investigate circumstances that affect people's decisions of whether or not to flee their homes during civilian conflicts. Building on existing literature reviewed in Chapter 1, I argue that conflict by itself is not the sole factor affecting people's decisions to flee or stay. Apart from a direct physical impact, civil war can destroy economic infrastructure and expose people to economic hardships, which can contribute to displacement. In addition, flight may be impeded or facilitated by such factors as geographic features, physical infrastructure, and social conditions under which people live. Using count data from the Maoists “people’s war” in Nepal, a sub-national analysis of displacement is conducted to provide a more refined test of existing large-n studies on the causes of forced migration. The empirical results are consistent with the major hypotheses developed in the field. With more precise measures of conflict, economic and physical conditions and presence of social networks, I demonstrate the importance of a rationalist framework in understanding the choice of flight.
The major objective of this chapter is to provide a new test of the rational choice model of forced migration using sub-national data in order to contribute to a better understanding of the dynamics of flight behavior within a country. The Internal Displacement Monitoring Center of the Norwegian Refugee Council estimated global displacement at 27.1 million persons by the end of 2009 (NRC 2010: 8). Not surprisingly and as illustrated by the citation at the beginning of this chapter, most research on forced migration tends to conclude that displacement is an obvious consequence of conflict and
33
that people flee because they have no choice.1 The June 2007 special issue of Forced Migration Review reported that “one in six Iraqis is displaced” in the “greatest conflict–
induced displacement in the history of the Middle East” (Forced Migration Review 2007:
3).2 While this is an impressive figure indeed, it is also striking to note that five out of every six Iraqis chose to risk their lives by staying put. Choice is apparent not only in Iraq but in all countries that have experienced internal conflict. The present chapter addresses this puzzle at the subnational level. Specifically it asks, beyond violence, what are the causes of forced migration at the subnational level?
Existing research on forced migration concludes that people have a choice either to leave or stay, even under highly adverse circumstances (Moore and Shellman 2004, 2006, 2007; Davenport, Moore and Poe 2003; Melander and Öberg 2006, 2007).
However, this research uses cross-national data. In this chapter, I argue that regions within a country vary in terms of the endowment of natural resources, economic
conditions, social networks and spread of violence. Some regions of a country are likely to experience a greater level of violence than others. Therefore, it is unrealistic to assume that the impact of violence is uniform across a country. The present chapter investigates at the sub-national level a number of factors that help to explain variance in
displacement. While a sub-national analysis of both push and pull factors would be ideal, given the nature of the data, the present chapter focuses only on the conditions of where
1 For example, see Cohen and Deng 1998a, 1998b, and Weiss 1999. The only exceptions are Davenport, Moore and Poe (2003) and Moore and Shellman (2004; 2006; 2007), who developed the ‘choice-centered’
approach for studying forced migration. Davenport et al. (2003) also formalized the use of the value-free phrase “forced migrant” to describe both refugees and IDPs. I follow their example.
2 This figure included two million internally displaced Iraqis and another 2.2 million taking refuge in
“neighboring states” (FMR 2007: 3).
34
people were displaced from (see Appendix 1 for detailed explanation of the sub-national data on displacement used in this chapter). The sub-national level analysis provides a new and more refined test of the choice-centered model of forced migration. What conditions make displacement more or less likely? To more precisely analyze the causes of
displacement and the factors that facilitate choice, this chapter uses count data on the number of displaced persons from the 75 districts of Nepal and employs negative
binomial regression analysis to test a number of hypotheses about the impact of conflict, economic conditions, social networks and physical factors on displacement.