Task: Statistical Model Comparison
Exercise 8: Forecast Alert Profile
Exercise Objectives
After completing this exercise, you will be able to:
• Create a forecast alert profile
• Create a diagnostics group
• Use the alert monitor to monitor forecast errors
Business Example
Since most of the forecast execution will take place in mass processing instead of interactively, Precision Pump Company needs to create the objects necessary to efficiently monitor forecast alerts.
Task:
Create forecast alerts and forecast alert profiles for the Alert Monitor
1. Create a diagnostic group called DG## for your UNI## univariate profile, with the following parameters.
Parameter Settings
MAD Upper Limit 20
MPE Upper Limit 10
MAPE Upper Limit 10
2. Test your alerts in the interactive planning table first. To generate alerts, run the forecast for the product P-103 with the forecast profile Master. Check that the forecast errors exceed the threshold value in the diagnosis group. If necessary change to constant model. Back in interactive planning assign yourself the forecast alert profile SCM_PUMP via Settings. Check the alerts interactively.
3. Check the Alert Monitor to see if alerts have been generated. To do so, create an alert profile in the Alert Monitor. First create an Application-Specific Alert Profile called FOR##, with the description Forecast Alert for APO: Forecast Planning with the following data:
Application specific alert profile FOR##
Planning book DPBOOK##
Selection PRODUCT##
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Now create an overall profile, GR##, with the description Alert and the following data.
Overall profile GR##
Planning version 000
Months 6
APO: forecast planning FOR##
Assign this overall profile to your user. Refresh the alerts and the supply shortage is displayed.
Solution 8: Forecast Alert Profile
Task:
Create forecast alerts and forecast alert profiles for the Alert Monitor
1. Create a diagnostic group called DG## for your UNI## univariate profile, with the following parameters.
Parameter Settings
MAD Upper Limit 20
MPE Upper Limit 10
MAPE Upper Limit 10
a) Use the menu path Advanced Planning and Optimization → Demand Planning → Environment → Maintain Forecast Profiles.
b) Enter your planning area, DPPA##, and select your overall profile MASTER.
c) Switch to the Univariate Profile tab and make sure your profile UNI##
is displayed. Enter DG## in the model parameter section and click the Maintain Diagnos.Group symbol.
d) Enter the limits from the table. Select Save Group and then Adopt values (F8).
e) Save your single profile Single Profile and your overall profile.
2. Test your alerts in the interactive planning table first. To generate alerts, run the forecast for the product P-103 with the forecast profile Master. Check that the forecast errors exceed the threshold value in the diagnosis group. If
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necessary change to constant model. Back in interactive planning assign yourself the forecast alert profile SCM_PUMP via Settings. Check the alerts interactively.
a) Use the menu path: Advanced Planning and Optimization → Demand Planning → Planning → Interactive Demand Planning. If required, double-click the DEMAND PLAN data view for the DPBOOK##
planning book.
b) Load the data for product P-103 by double-clicking your selection ID, PRODUCT##, and then row P-103.
c) Start the forecast by choosing Univariate Forecast on the toolbar.
Answer NO to saving the data, since we have not made any changes yet. Select the forecast profile Master. The forecast is then run automatically.
d) Click the Forecast Errors tab page and check whether any alerts have been generated. If no alerts appear, pick a constant model and execute the forecast again until alerts appear. Go back to the planning table.
e) Use Settings → Assign Alert Profile to assign yourself forecast alert profile SCM_PUMP. Adopt.
f) Press Display/Refresh Alerts. The forecast alerts appear in the lower window.
3. Check the Alert Monitor to see if alerts have been generated. To do so, create an alert profile in the Alert Monitor. First create an Application-Specific Alert Profile called FOR##, with the description Forecast Alert for APO: Forecast Planning with the following data:
Application specific alert profile FOR##
Planning book DPBOOK##
Selection PRODUCT##
Now create an overall profile, GR##, with the description Alert and the following data.
Assign this overall profile to your user. Refresh the alerts and the supply shortage is displayed.
a) Choose Advanced Planning and Optimization → Supply Chain Monitoring → Alert Monitor.
b) Choose Alert Profile to define the settings for the Alert Monitor.
c) Click the right mouse button on APO: Forecast Planning under Application-Specific Alert Profiles to create a profile. Enter the Profile ID as FOR## and the description Forecast alerts and press Create.
d) Enter the data in the above table and save your profile. Go back.
e) Now click the right mouse button on Alert-Overall Profiles to create an overall profile. Enter the Profile ID as GR## and the description Alertand press Create.
f) Enter the data in the above table and save your overall profile. Click User Settings and assign your overall profile, GR##, to your user as a favorite. Save and Exit.
g) Choose Redetermine Alerts to display the alerts in the Alert Monitor.
Set the Selection box next to your planning group. Your alerts will now be displayed in the table below.
Lesson Summary
You should now be able to:
• Explain automatic aggregation of historical data
• Assign forecast profiles to products
• Use forecast comparison to determine the best forecast model