User Parameters in Forecasting
Exercise 6: Interactive Forecasting
Exercise Objectives
After completing this exercise, you will be able to:
• Implement interactive forecasting for setting and checking parameters in the forecast profile
Business Example
In order to be able to set up interactive forecasting, the demand planner for Precision Pump has to know the parameters in the forecast profile.
Task:
Interactive forecasting is used mostly for setting and checking parameters in the forecast profile. For example, you can use it to create different forecast profiles for A, B, and C products. Usually, mass processing is used for assigning profiles to characteristic value combinations and for periodic forecasting.
1. To prepare for the forecast, you have to define the special functions for the forecast key figures in your planning area DPPA##, with Extras → Forecast Settings. Assign the FORECAST key figure to the forecast and the CORRHISTkey figure to the corrected history.
2. Create an overall profile for the forecast for your planning area. Enter the following parameters:
3. Create a univariate profile using the system proposals, correct the parameters below and assign it to your overall profile, MASTER.
Profile UNI##
Description Constant
Key figure INVQTY
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4. Start interactive planning and open your planning book, DPBOOK##, with the DEMAND PLAN data view. Load the data for product P-102 into the planning table and run a univariate forecast. Switch on the graphics and analyze the historical data. Run multiple forecasts using different models and smoothing parameters. Each time, check the forecast errors, especially the mean absolute percent error (MAPE), and the forecast messages. Switch on the outlier correction via the ex-post method and check whether deviations have occurred between the original history and the corrected history. The outlier correction depends on the forecast model.
Choose different forecast models and run them to see which one gives you the lowest forecast errors. Return to the interactive planning table when you are finished.
Caution: If you return to the planning table using the green arrow, the forecast results and the overall profile are saved automatically.
You can switch of this surprising response with user parameter /SAPAPO/FCST_GREEN, see SAP Note 350065.
Hint: If you do not have history data for the previous month, use an offset of -1 for the past period.
Solution 6: Interactive Forecasting
Task:
Interactive forecasting is used mostly for setting and checking parameters in the forecast profile. For example, you can use it to create different forecast profiles for A, B, and C products. Usually, mass processing is used for assigning profiles to characteristic value combinations and for periodic forecasting.
1. To prepare for the forecast, you have to define the special functions for the forecast key figures in your planning area DPPA##, with Extras → Forecast Settings. Assign the FORECAST key figure to the forecast and the CORRHISTkey figure to the corrected history.
a) Use the menu path: Advanced Planning and Optimization → Demand Planning → Environment → Administration of Demand Planning and Supply Network Planning.
b) Select the planning area view (default), right-click on your Planning area DPPA## and choose Display.
c) Use the menu path: Extras → Forecast Settings.
d) Assign FORECAST/ Forecast as the Forecast Key Figure and assign CORRHIST/ Corrected History as the Corrected History Key Figure.
e) Choose Adopt. To complete the assignment, click the Adopt symbol.
2. Create an overall profile for the forecast for your planning area. Enter the following parameters:
a) Use the menu path: Advanced Planning and Optimization → Demand Planning → Environment → Maintain Forecast Profiles.
b) Create a master forecast profile by entering the above parameters.
c) Stay in the Maintain Forecast Profile transaction for the next exercise.
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3. Create a univariate profile using the system proposals, correct the parameters below and assign it to your overall profile, MASTER.
Profile UNI##
a) Click the Univariate Profile tab page and afterwards the Show Proposal symbol on the toolbar. Make sure the proposed entries match the parameters in the above table.
b) Save the single profile via the icon Single Profile and assign it to your overall profile Adopt (F8).
c) Go back to the Overall Profile and check your entry for your univariate forecast profile UNI##. Then save your overall profile .
4. Start interactive planning and open your planning book, DPBOOK##, with the DEMAND PLAN data view. Load the data for product P-102 into the planning table and run a univariate forecast. Switch on the graphics and analyze the historical data. Run multiple forecasts using different models and smoothing parameters. Each time, check the forecast errors, especially the mean absolute percent error (MAPE), and the forecast messages. Switch on the outlier correction via the ex-post method and check whether deviations have occurred between the original history and the corrected history. The outlier correction depends on the forecast model.
Choose different forecast models and run them to see which one gives you the lowest forecast errors. Return to the interactive planning table when you are finished.
Continued on next page
Caution: If you return to the planning table using the green arrow, the forecast results and the overall profile are saved automatically.
You can switch of this surprising response with user parameter /SAPAPO/FCST_GREEN, see SAP Note 350065.
Hint: If you do not have history data for the previous month, use an offset of -1 for the past period.
a) Use the menu path: Advanced Planning and Optimization → Demand Planning → Planning → Interactive Demand Planning.
b) If required, double-click the DEMAND PLAN data view for your planning book DPBOOK##.
c) Load the data for P-102 by double-clicking your selection ID, PRODUCT##, and then row P-102.
d) Start the forecast by clicking the Univariate Forecast symbol on the toolbar. Answer No in the save prompt, since we have not made any changes yet. The forecast is then executed automatically.
e) Notice that on the upper part of the screen, you can see the STAT symbol for executing the forecast, the Forecast comparison symbol, and the Show/Hide table symbol that switches the graphic on or off.
f) At the lower section of the screen, you can change the forecast parameters.
g) To automatically assign the selection to the profile, go to Settings → Forecast profile and set the Save Assignment of Selection for Forecast Profile indicator. When you save the forecast view, the planning data, the profile, and the assignment are all saved.
h) Run the forecast several different times by choosing different models and checking the forecast errors. Click the Settings tab and switch the outlier correction to the ex-post method.
i) Click the Settings tab and enter 20 for the average number of days in the forecast period. Run the forecast to see if that improves the forecast.
j) When you click the green arrow (back), the current forecast is saved automatically and you return to the interactive planning table. To close the forecast without saving, click the red X (Cancel).
Lesson Summary
You should now be able to:
• Explain the forecasting process flow
• Create a master forecast profile
• Create a univariate forecast profile
• Use forecast profiles for forecasting
• Use univariate forecasting models
• Use exponential smoothing for forecasting
• Use automatic model selection
• Use outlier correction for performing automatic correction in historical data
• Use the Workday adjustment function
• Choose the forecast errors to be calculated Related Information
• 441385: Consulting: Manual changes in the forecast
• 389760: Consulting: Decimal places
• 388260: APO Consulting forecast: Automatic model selection
• 375965: APO Consulting: Alerts in Forecasting
• 350065: Consulting: User Parameters in the Forecasting Environment