The AB 758 statue defines the intention of the program as “achiev[ing] greater efficiency in the states existing residential and nonresidential building stock.”17 The statue also directs the Energy Commission to consider “the amount of annual and peak energy savings, greenhouse gas emissions reductions, and project customer utility bill savings that will accrue from the program.”18
Selecting a quantifiable goal for the AB 758 program is important for multiple reasons. At the simplest level, a quantifiable goal serves as a metric against which to gauge program progress. At a more fundamental level, however, the goal that is chosen will drive program design. The State of California has multiple targets that could be used to serve as the one, quantifiable target for the AB 758 program. Figure 1 and Figure 2 explore the potential impact different existing state targets would have on electricity consumption in California. Using the forecast data from
17 California Public Resources Code, Section 25943, (a) (1). 2012.
18 California Public Resources Code Section 25943, (a) (2) (c). 2012. - 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 GW h
Commercial Electricity Consumption by End Use
Outdoor Lighting Office Equipment Miscellaneous Indoor Lighting Refrigeration Cooking Water Heating Ventilation Cooling Heating
the Energy Commission’s electricity supply analysis office, these charts then overlay different state targets to examine the effect these targets would have on projected consumption. Figure 8 and Figure 9 demonstrate that existing state targets are not consistent. Some appear unrealistically aggressive, such as achieving zero net energy levels of energy efficiency in half of all commercial buildings by 2030, while others seem overly conservative, like the current
estimates of economic potential for savings from IOU efficiency programs. The figures also explore different potential program approaches. One target, 25 percent of buildings decreasing electricity use by 75 percent by 2030, assumes deep reductions can be accomplished in a smaller portion of the total building stock. This projection would rely upon achieving deep savings in fewer buildings. This can be compared to the effect of achieving 30 percent energy reductions in 75 percent of the total building stock by 2030. This scenario in the residential sector would be akin to achieving 75 percent penetration of the existing WHPP operated by the IOUs19.
However, given that after two years of operation the program has achieved 2,624 upgrades, this would require a significant increase in the scale of this program20.
These scenarios should also be considered with the market sector characterization in mind. For example, the greatest electrical load contribution in the commercial sector is from lighting and plug load programs (Figure 7). Designing a program for the commercial sector that targets improvements in these categories could accomplish something close to the 30 percent reduction in 75 percent buildings goal modeled in Figure 9; such a program may focus on small offices, retail, and the miscellaneous sector, which account for the greatest number of commercial buildings (Figure 6). However, such a program design would largely rely on improvements in plug load, which are hard to guarantee from one building occupant to the next, or even over time. Such a program design may involve using the smart grid infrastructure to guarantee persistent savings. Alternatively, designing a program that aims to achieve deep savings in a smaller number of buildings might choose to focus on large offices and hospitals, the largest energy‐using building types. Given that neither scenario achieves the greenhouse gas reduction goals of AB 32, both program approaches may be necessary (Figure 9).
The Energy Commission will present these scenarios and the implications of selecting one target over another at public workshops following the publication of the Scoping Report. Stakeholders and the public are invited to submit public comment on the proposed scenarios. With the release of the draft Action Plan, the Energy Commission will propose a quantifiable metric for the AB 758 program and discuss the implications of this target on the design and
implementation of the program. There will be further opportunity for comment on the selection of and rationale for program targets at that time.
19 Preliminary results from the IOU evaluations of the WHPP indicate participating customers achieve on
average 30 percent savings in their homes.
Figure 8: Residential Electricity Consumption Scenarios. This chart shows the potential impact different existing and proposed efficiency targets could have on overall consumption in the state.
Figure 9: Commercial Electricity Consumption Scenarios. This chart shows the potential impact different existing and proposed efficiency targets could have on overall consumption in the state.
Purpose
This report outlines the critical issues that need to be addressed to systematically obtain deeper levels of energy savings in California’s existing buildings and highlights many of the options for addressing them. The needs and options discussed in this report are a result of the rich history California has with developing building and appliance standards, implementing and evaluating
energy efficiency programs, fostering professional building auditing and performance
modeling, and engaging in a wide range of other building science activities. This report does not provide determinant solutions to the needs that are identified, instead offering a set of possible options. It identifies some of the risks and challenges associated with pursuing certain options, as well as with not meeting certain needs.
This report is meant to inform interested parties about what the Energy Commission believes those critical needs to be and invites stakeholders to consider ways that they can be met so that the state will realize its energy policy goals. Dialogue and deliberation will undoubtedly bring to the surface more options and even refinement of the needs. The Energy Commission has primary responsibility for AB 758 implementation, but several other agencies as well as myriad stakeholders play essential roles in the marketplace for existing building upgrades. In
particular, the contracting community will be the primary agent for selling and installing the projects that add up to success. Under the guidance of AB 758, the Energy Commission desires and expects to encourage strong growth in the building performance arena that is both
customer‐ and contractor‐focused and sufficiently structured to ensure the necessary
transparency and accountability. Stakeholders are encouraged to join the dialogue and help the Energy Commission in this effort.