* • * *
* •
3^
STATISTICS IN FOCUS
Economy and finance
eurostat 1997 _J 37
ISSN 1024-4298
RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE
IN COMMUNICATION AND COMPUTER & INFORMATION SERVICES
In Europe, Germany and the United Kingdom take the lead
Two items of international trade in services related to the information society
Characterised by a rapid development, the information society has become, within the last few years, a key issue in the field of economic analysis. The information society covers several segments of the economy: telecommunication services, computer services, the software industry, information services and multimedia. Two items of international trade in services relate to the information society: communication services that provide a medium for the transport of information and computer & information services that represent the main part of the production of intangible information (cf. methodological note).
Main players
The main providers of communication services are the historical courier and telecommunication operators who are still in most EU countries in a monopolistic position. 90% of their revenue still rises from the national market. The trend towards liberalisation recently undertaken in the European Union is expected to favour international competition and thus international trade in communication services.
Over the last years, the technological boom in telecommunication (fixed lines and mobile networks) and the development of computer equipment have increased the accessibility of international networks, thus creating larger opportunities to international trade in computer & information services.
Can the current European statistical data show the premises of such expected developments? Total transactions between EU and the World in communication
and in computer & information services
~m
Mio ECU 30 000 -25 000 20 000 15 000 10 000 5 000
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 M Communication services (credit + debit) E3 Computer & Information services (credit + debit) N.B.: Reporter: EU (EUR12from 1985 to 1991: EUR15 from 1992 to 1995), for computer & information services, Eurostat estimation from 1985 to 1991
Manuscript completed on = 30.10.1997
For further information please contact: Ms M. H. FIGUEIRA
Eurostat, L-2920 Luxembourg, tel. 4301-34730 Fax: 4301-33859 e-mail: [email protected]
Price (excl. VAT) in Luxembourg: Subscription 'Statistics in focus' of all themes: ECU 310
Subscription 'Statistics in focus' of Theme 2 'Economy and Finance': ECU 85 Single copy: ECU 6
A 158% increase in trade over 10 years understated by a fall in prices
Referring to the 1995 figures of Eurostat's balance of payments (BOP) statistics, total international transactions in communication and computer & information services between the EU and the World1 have increased by 158%
between 1985 and 1995 (9 958 Mio ECU in 1985 compared to 25 693 Mio ECU in 1995).
However, this large increase is not specific to the communication and computer & information services. During the same period, total international transaction in other services2 have increased by 169% (134 058 Mio ECU in
1985 and 360 809 Mio ECU in 1995). Furthermore, the share
of the services under review in the aggregate other services remained rather stable over the period, representing approximately 7% of this aggregate.
Computer & information services record the largest growth
The rise is more significant when looking at communication and computer & information separately. The rise in the total of these two services items is largely due to the development of computer & information services. Between 1985 and 1995, the latter increased by 352% (from 2 921 to 13 190 Mio ECU), while communication services showed a 78% rise (from 7 037 to 12 503 Mio ECU).
Total international transactions between EU and the World for "other services" "communication services" and "computer & information services"
(Mio ECU)
Other services (total)
Communication services (total)
Computer & information (total)
Communication +
computer & information (total)
Communication (share in other services)
Computer & Information (share in other services)
Communication + computer & information (share in other services)
1985
134 058
7 037
2 921
9 958
5.3
2.2
7.5
1986
128 885
7 245
2 821
10 066
5.6
2.2
7.8
1987
132 532
6 956
2 839
9 795
5.3
2.1
7.4
1988
138 578
7 206
3 034
10 240
5.2
2.2
7.4
1989
158 274
7 276
3 547
10 823
4.6
2.2
6.8
1990
176 247
7 933
4 069
12 002
4.5
2.3
6.8
1991
191 390
8 468
4 832
13 300
4.4
2.5
6.9
1992
301 445
9 787
8 032
17819
3.3
2.7
6
1993
327 073
9 359
12 730
22 089
2.9
3.9
6.8
1994
348 250
9 963
11 771
21734
2.9
3.4
6.3
1995
360 809
12 503
13 190
25 693
3.5
3.7
7.2
N.B.: Reporter = EU (EUR 12 from 1985 to 1991; EUR 15 from 1992 to 1995)
Two observations need to be made which partly explain the relative weakness of the trend in communication services: • The change ¡h classification: services that used to be
classified together with telecommunication services are now recorded as computer & information services (cf. Methodological note).
• Strong fall of prices: It should be noted that total transactions are valued at current prices and thus their evolution should be analysed in the light of the strong fall in prices observed in communication services over the period. While the prices recorded in other segments of the economy have risen, prices in telecommunication for instance have dropped dramatically. Between 1993 and 1995, the average cost in the EU of international calls for a residential user was reduced by 30% (Source: European Investment Bank (EIB)). Therefore the growth in volume of transactions may be substantially greater than that suggested by the growth in current price transactions.
The main partners of the European Union
The main partners of the European Member States are themselves and the United States. Intra EUR15 trade represents 48% of EU total transactions with the World for communication services and 54% for computer & information services. EU trade with the United States represents 21% of communication services and 27% of computer & information services.
In computer & information services, very few other partners exceed 1% of the market, neighbouring European countries total 11% of exchanges and Asia 5%.
In communication services, the geographical allocation is more evenly spread; the main continents Asia (12%), America without the USA (6%) and Africa (4%) show slightly greater shares than in computer & informations services. The Mediterranean countries join the neighbouring European countries to total 18% of exchanges.
1 Including Intra EU flows.
2 Other services comprise those international transactions not covered under the items transportation and travel. They notably include communication and computer & information sen/ices.
Main partners of EUR15 in communication services in 1995 in % of total transactions
with the World
CIS
ASEAN
Asian NIC2
NICsl
Medit. Basin
OPEC
ACP
NAFTA
CCEE
Australia
Japan
Asia
US
America
Africa
Other EU
EFTA
EUR 15
C
1
1
1
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1
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) 10 20 30 40 50 6 0 %
Analysis of the balance
The geographical breakdown of the balance of European Union with its main partners in communication services and computer & information services show opposite pictures of the two items.
EU is a net importer of computer and information services
from USA and a net exporter of these services to all other countries.
EU is a net exporter of communication services to the USA
and EFTA countries, whereas it is a net importer of communication services from Asia, ACP countries, Mediterranean countries and other European countries.
This is mainly due to the way transactions are recorded for telecommunication services. Telecommunication services
Balance of EU with main partners in communication services (exports - imports)
CIS Medit. Basin OPEC ACP
CCEE Japan
Asia US America
Other EU EFTA
-400
Main partners of EUR15 in computer & information services in 1995 in % of total transactions
with the World
60 %
correspond to the use of a network infrastructure (cables, satellites, etc.) for the physical transmission of sound, images or other information. For example, when a resident of an EU country wants to send information to an ACP country, the local network is used and therefore the EU national operator buys telecommunication services from the ACP country. Compensation methods are used by partners countries to record the value of the access to the local networks, depending on the volume of transactions and on tariffs set by each country.
The geographical allocation of the balance for
communication services thus shows that EU countries are sending more information to the countries and areas from which they buy communication services (Asia, ACP, etc.) than they receive information from these countries.
Balance of EU with main partners in computer & information services (exports - imports)
CIS Medit. Basin
OPEC
ACP
CCEE
Japan
Asia
US
America
Other EU
EFTA
a
-800 -600 -400 -200
11994 [-11995
0 200
Mio ECU
EU countries' shares in total EU transactions:
Germany and the United Kingdom take the lead
Germany and the United Kingdom share half of the EU transactions in communication services and one third of the EU transactions in computer & information services
In 1995, the total transactions (credit + debit) of EUR15 with the World amounted to 12 503 Mio ECU for communication services and 13 190 Mio ECU for computer & information services. In communication services, two countries, Germany and the United Kingdom shared 52% (6 564 Mio ECU) of the total European Union transactions. In computer & information services, Austria joins Germany and the United Kingdom to share 47% (6 165 Mio ECU) of the total European transactions.
The ranking of countries shown by their share in the total of EUR15 transactions differs from the picture given in other services
A group of countries have a share in communication services varying between 5% and 8%: the Netherlands (7.9%), the Belgium & Luxembourg Economic Union (6.4%), Spain
(5.7%), Italy (5.6%) and France (5.3%). Among these countries, it is striking to find France and Italy whose shares in the aggregate other services are significantly higher, respectively 17.2% and 7.4%.
In computer & information services, the position of France and Italy is not better, respectively 5.1% and 3.6%. On the other hand, Austria, Spain and Finland detain a much larger relative share of the market in computer and information services (respectively 12.5%, 10.2% and 8.7% of the EUR15 total) than in other services (respectively 6.8%, 4.25% and 1.8%).
The high level of transactions in communication services and the negative balance of Germany (-701 Mio ECU) and the United Kingdom (-340 Mio ECU) with the World, shows that residents of these countries have a larger access to foreign networks than residents of other EU countries.
In the further detailed analysis, we will especially focus on the data available for Germany, the United Kingdom, France and for computer & information services Austria, Spain and Finland.
1995 total transactions in communication services
DK
a
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FIN
Ρ
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D
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1-— i — 00 2 000 3 000 4 C 00Mio ECU
M Credit m Debit
1995 total transactions in computer & information services
P
DK
IRL
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BLEU
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Mio ECU m Credit Ξ Debit
1995 total transactions in other services
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0 50 000 100 000
Mio ECU S Credit α Debit
Structure of the international trade in
telecommunication services
Communication and principally telecommunication means the exchange of information. What kind of information do Germany and the United Kingdom exchange with the World
to a larger extent than other EU countries? According to a
study of the European Investment Bank1 , the breakdown of
telecommunication services in Western Europe in 1995 consisted mainly of fixed voice services (69%), data services (16%), mobile telecommunications (12%) and Cable TV services (3%).
The opening of fixed and mobile telecommunication networks to international trade
According to the EIB report most European countries have invested heavily and to comparable extents in order to adapt their infrastructure to the new market and technological conditions. Germany has invested the most in order to bring the network in the new Länder (former East Germany) up-to-date. Differences in investments can therefore not explain the large discrepancies observed between the EU countries.
1 EIB: Telecommunication network development and investment in the EU, 1996
Raw investments in telecommunication services in 5 countries
Mio ECU
14 000
12 000
10 000
8 000
6 000
4 000
2 000
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993
-Germany ■ Spain - - ■ France ■ ■ - Italy · -UK
Source: Eurostat, Panorama of European Industry 1997
As stated in the Panorama of European Industry 1997, international development of telecommunication services is based on the creation of alliances, common subsidiaries, etc. Unfortunately, data on Foreign Direct Investments in the field of telecommunication are not available. However, in a sector dominated by very large operators, the creation of major transnational alliances is significant, and one can expect that the operators left out of these deals would suffer from a lack of competitiveness on the international market.
On-line electronic information services: the combined growth of international trade in telecommunication and computer & information services
Data services represent 16% of telecommunication services in Europe in the form of on-line information services. On-line electronic information services are direct clients of telecommunication services and according to the Panorama
of European Industry 1997, they represent in Europe more than 80% of the turnover realised in the electronic information services activity.
The activity in Europe is dominated by the United Kingdom,
whose share in the total EUR15 turnover is 65%. The UK is also the only EU Member whose total turnover is mainly raised from international markets (70%) rather than from its national market. Its activity, and especially the activity of the main firm Reuters, is mainly carried out through on-line databases. On-line databases have been developed using internationally used hardware and software equipment by the world leader of the information society trade, the USA. The choice of this medium probably conditioned the international success of these sources of information.
France: a market trapped in national boundaries
Contrary to all other European countries mainly connected to on-line databases, the French market of on-line electronic information services is largely dominated by the use of videotex. In France 62% of electronic information services are provided through the Minitel. This system was set up by France Telecom to give access to information at low costs (low tariffs and standard connection equipment provided by the operator). In EUR15, only 9% of on-line electronic information is provided through this type of videotex system.
This percentage drops to respectively 4% and 1 % in
Germany and in the United Kingdom where 92% and 94%
of the activity consists of on-line databases.
The system developed by France Telecom has probably slowed down the connection of French residents to international information networks. Furthermore, the national operator has failed to export its videotex system of access to the information. This constitutes a handicap for national providers of information services that have developed their activity under a system that is not widely used at the international level.
Electronic information services: total turnover of the activity by main international markets in 1994
Mio ECU
1 200
1 000
800
600
400
200 +
0
ψ]
JL
D F NL FIN UK
Γ3 National Η Other European Countries D Northern America 83 Other
Electronic information services: total turnover by type of medium used in 1994
Mio ECU
4 000
3 500
3 000
2 500
2 000
1 500
1 000
-500
DO
■ ff
D F NL RN UK EUR15
n-line databases ■ Videotex Π Other on-line IS Off-line
The United Kingdom and Germany have
found partners outside the EU
The geographical allocation shows another strength of the two European leaders of the international trade in communication and computer & information services. Germany and the United Kingdom have penetrated regional markets from which other EU countries kept away.
Communication services
Among EU members, the United Kingdom is, by far, the
most open to Extra EUR15 countries with which it realises
7 1 % of its total international transactions in communication
services. Asia is its main geographical partner representing
28% of its total transactions, at a comparable level to the
share occupied by its Intra EUR15 partner countries (29%).
Without being absent from Asia and the United States,
respectively 14% and 10% of its total transactions, Germany
has found markets in Europe. Apart from Intra EUR15
countries where it occupies a strong position, Germany has
especially developed international trade in other European
Countries (13%) of which Central & Eastern European Countries (CEEC) represent 8% of its total international transactions.
France has a relatively weak position both in Asia and other
European countries. The USA is France's main non-EU
country where it undertakes 25% of its total international transactions in communication services.
UK: geographical breakdown of communication services in % of
transactions with the World
us
JP
Asia
America
Africa
Other EU
ExtraEUR15
htraEUR15
CIS
NICsl
ACP
OPEC
ASEAN
NAFTA
CCEE
i
β « ^
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m
wsmm
mimmi
\
m
ι
1i
SSiSeKSS
i
β
Wñ
) 20 40 60 8 o%
Ξ credit + debit 1995
Germany: geographical breakdown of communication services in % of
transactions with the World
us
JP
Asia mmm
America
Africa ρ
Other EU
ExtraEUR15 SSBSiSiS
MraEUR15 j | U i as i
NICsl "
ACP ψ
OPEC I
ASEAN g
NAFTA
CCEE
6 0 %
E credit * debit 1995
France: geographical breakdown of communication services in % of
transactions with the World
6 0 %
E credit + debit 1995
Computer & information services: an international market dominated by the USA
For computer & information services, we have chosen to look at the detailed geographical breakdown of the two largest
trading EU countries, Germany and the United Kingdom, of
France whose position in the ranking of countries is
especially low and of Spain and Finland whose total
transactions with the World are relatively high for this item1.
Among EU member States, Spain, France and the United
Kingdom trade mainly with Extra EUR15 countries with which they realise respectively 58%, 7 1 % and 63% of their total international transactions in computer and information services. For the three countries the main partner outside the
EU is the USA, standing respectively at 33%, 67% and 48%
of total transactions with the World.
However France undertakes very little Extra EU trade with other countries than the USA whereas Spain and the United Kingdom trade with other partners outside the European
Union. Apart from the USA, the main areas for Spain are
NAFTA with 42% of total transactions (i.e. USA: 33% and
Canada: 9%) and EFTA countries (i.e. Switzerland with
15%). The main areas for the United Kingdom are Asia
(5%), EFTA countries (6%) and other European countries
(3%).
By contrast, Germany and Finland are more directed
towards Intra EUR15 countries in which they undertake
respectively 56% and 63% of their international transactions in computer & information services. The weight of USA as a partner is relatively less important than for Spain, France and the United Kingdom. Further, Germany and Finland's Extra EUR15 partners are more diverse. In particular, Germany
and Finland trade computer & information services with
non-EU European countries (16% and 17% respectively) and with Asian countries (6% and 5% respectively). To a smaller extent Germany and Finland trade with areas that do
not represent large markets for other countries: Germany
with OPEC, Core Newly Industrializing Countries (NICsl)
and Japan, Finland with OPEC, NICsl and the Community
of Indépendant States (CIS) (6%).
Geographical breakdown data are not available for Austria whose total transactions are also very high.
Spain: geographical breakdown of
computer & information services in % of transactions with the World
CIS Japan USA NAFTA NCs1 OPEC ACP Asia Africa Other EU EFTA Extra EURI 5 Intra EURI 5 0 0% 0% WM?Æ>MMM 33 g~£A;«'MíSíá 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1 %
MMâ 1 5%
mmmmmrn ■immmmmm
%
? 4 2 %
'■■"■"■"•"¡
ì 4 1 % 58%
h 2 0 % 4 0 % 6 0 % 80 % Ξ Total transactions 1995
UK: geographical breakdown of computer & information services in % of transactions with the World
lntraBJR15
20% 4 0 % 6 0 % 8 0 % 3 Total transactions 1995
France: geographical breakdown of computer & information service in % of transactions with the World
cts Japan USA NAFTA NCs1 OPEC ACP Asia Africa Other EU EFTA Extra EUR15 kitraEUR15 0% 0 % OT3^^^^^^ 0 % 1 % 0%
I 1% 0% 0% § 2%
mxmmL
. 1
^ 67% ^ 6 7 %
iäSSiäfiiiiHiiii!
20% 4 0 % 6 0 % Ξ Total transactions 1995
Germany: geographical breakdown of computer & information services in % of transactions with the World
CIS Japan USA NAFTA NICsl OPEC ACP 0% | 2 %
umi
mmm¿
3 2% 1 % 0% Asia Ü 6% Africa 1 1 % Other EU | 3%
EFTA ExtraEUR15 lntraEUR15 0
U l i ; 20% I 21%
%
^ 4 4 %
J >6%
h 2 0 % 4 0 % 6 0 % 80 % Ξ Total transactrons 1995
Finland: geographical breakdown of computer & information services in % of transactions with the World
C B Japan USA NAFTA NCs1 OFEC ACP Asia Africa Other EU EFTA Extra EUR15 Intra EUR15
^ 6 % j 1 %
WM «ν
I I I 10°'
¡2%
12%
0%
1 5 %
1 %
S3 s%
H l 8%
5%
■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■
1 63% " Τ " " " " " Τ " " " " " '""ι 0% 2 0 % 4 0 % 6 0 %
S Total transactions 1995
Bibliography:
International Trade in Services -EU, 1986-95, Eurostat, 1997
Geographical Breakdown of the Current Account - EU, 1992-1995,
Eurostati 1997
New Cronos on-line database : Eurostat :
Telecommunication network development and investment in the
EU, European Investment Bank
(EIB), 1996
Panorama of European Industry 1997, Eurostat, 1997
Methodological note
Classification problem
When looking at the international trade in services two items
of the BOP are related to information society:
"communication services" and "computer & information services". These items are defined in the methodological framework of the IMF Balance of Payments 5th Manual.
"Communication services" cover two main categories of
international communications transactions between
residents and non-residents:
• "postal courier services" which encompass the pick-up,
transport and delivery of letters and other printed matter, parcels, and packages by national postal administrations and other operators. Also included are post office counter and mail box rental services.
• "telecommunication services" which encompass the
transmission of sound, images, or other information by telephone, telex, telegram, cable broadcasting, satellite,
^
Production of
information CONfENTS
Computing Transport of information Micro-computer Communications
ISL
I Telecommunication ! Courier
Telephone Facsimile Cable Broadcasting Satellite b-mail Letters Periodicals Newspapers
e-mail, fax, etc. and include business network services, teleconferencing, and support services. In EU countries that have provided the breakdown, transactions in
communication services mainly consist of
telecommunication services as, in all cases but one (Italy), they account for more than 80% of the total.
"Computer and information services" cover "computer data" and "news related" service transactions. Included are databases, such as development, storage, and on-line time series; data processing; hardware consultancy; software implementation; maintenance and repair of computers and peripheral equipment; news agency services; and direct subscriptions to news papers and periodicals.
The first item covers transactions referring to the provision of a medium to be used for the transport of information. Buying communication services means paying to use a network infrastructure.
The second item refers to the provision of the content, information itself.
Classification problems arise from the fact that the development of new technology have developed the access to information through electronic equipment allowing an extensive and enlarged use of the physical network. The use of telecommunication networks has fundamentally changed in two ways.
• Firstly, the user is now able to exchange large and
complex types of information through the network.
• Secondly, the user is now able to find its own way on the
network therefore using a technology for which one needs support. The borderline between the provision of the medium and the provision of the content has become thus more narrow.
Valuation problem
Value data include price changes and give a wrong picture of the volume of transactions when price developments are strong and uneven. Between 1993 and 1995, the average cost in the EU of international calls for a residential user was reduced by 30%.
Geographical a n d economic zones abréviations
ACP: African, Caribbean and Pacific countries signatories of the Lomé convention (70 countries)
ASEAN: Association of South-East Asian Nations (7 countries)
BLEU: Belgo-Luxembourg Economic Union
CCEE: Countries from Central and Eastern Europe (15 countries)
CIS: Community of Indépendant States (12 countries)
EFTA: European Free Trade Association (Switzerland, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway)
NAFTA: North American Free Trade Association (Canada, Mexico, USA)
NICsl: the Core Newly Industrializing Countries (Hong Kong, Republic of Korea, Singapore, Taiwan)
NICs2A: Asian NICs of the second wave of industrialization (Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand)
OPEC: Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries■ (1.2 countries)
Other EU: European Countries other than EURI 5 ånd EFTA, including CCEE and Baltic countries
For any technical information other than dissemination, please contact:
Eurostat, L-2920 Luxembourg - Unit B5 - Balance of Payments
Ms I. Maquet (Planistat) or Ms M.H. Figueira*, tel. (352) 4301-34730 Fax: (352) 4301-33859 e-mail : [email protected]
*We would like to express our appreciation to Ms E. Karaliute for her research work, fundamental contribution in the preparation of this document and to Ms A. Champault and F. Faes-Cannito for their assistance in its production.
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