Local Climate Changes: present and future

present and future

www.arpa.emr.it

present and future

present and future

Global climate changes

Global climate changes

Increase of the global temperature is more significant from the 90‘s

Increase of the global temperature is more significant from the 90‘s

Decreasing of precipitation in Europe

Decreasing of precipitation in Europe

-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Anomalia Tmed

Anomalia di temperatura media annuale

T_globale T_Italia T_Bologna -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Anomalia Tmed

Anomalia di temperatura media annuale

T_globale T_Italia T_Bologna

Anomaly of the yearly mean temperature (vs 1961-1990)

(http://www.arpa.emr.it/sim/?clima)

(http://www.arpa.emr.it/sim/?clima)

Precipitation anomaly 1991-2008 vs 1961-1990 Precipitation anomaly 1991-2008 vs 1961-1990

Observed climate variability

at regional level

Observed climate variability

at regional level

Yearly precipitation (deviation from the avarage 1961-1990) E-R regional mean

Yearly precipitation (deviation from the avarage 1961-1990) E-R regional mean

Trend= -16mm/10 years Trend= -16mm/10 years

Yearly climatic water balance (E-R region)

Yearly climatic water balance (E-R region)

Increase of 0,5°C/10 years

(from 1986 always over mean climate reference value)

Increase of 0,5°C/10 years

(from 1986 always over mean climate reference value)

Anomaly of summer Tmax (JJA) E-R regional mean

Anomaly of summer Tmax (JJA) E-R regional mean

strongest signal during summer

Temperatura massima S. P. Capofiume (pianura BO) 20 22.5 25 27.5 30 32.5 35 37.5 40 01/06 /12 06/06 /12 11/06 /12 16/06 /12 21/06 /12 26/06 /12 01/07 /12 06/07 /12 11/07 /12 16/07 /12 21/07 /12 26/07 /12 31/07 /12 05/08 /12 10/08 /12 15/08 /12 20/08 /12 25/08 /12 30/08 /12 giorni °C Tmax2012 Tmax2003

Tmax clima giugno

Tmax clima luglio

Tmax clima agosto Heat waves (>35°C) summer 2012 vs summer 2003

(regional central plan)

Heat waves (>35°C) summer 2012 vs summer 2003 (regional central plan)

Progressive decrease of the number of rainy days since late 90s‘

Progressive decrease of the number of rainy days since late 90s‘

2012 Moving avarage on 5 years

Moving avarage on 5 years

frequency of rainy days during spring-summer (regional central plan)

frequency of rainy days during spring-summer (regional central plan)

Consecutive dry days, summer 2012

Consecutive dry days, summer 2012

Consecutive dry days, summer 2003

Consecutive dry days, summer 2003

Summer climatic water

balance

2012 vs 2003

Summer climatic water

balance

Soil humidity

Soil humidity

200 3

200

3 200₇

200 7

201 2

201 2

decreasing in air relative humidity

decreasing in air relative humidity

Mann-Kendall test significant

Relative humidity (%, year)

summer trend 1987-2012

Relative humidity (%, year) summer trend 1987-2012

NDVI

NDVI

Local Climate Impact Profile

Local Climate Impact Profile

Data collected in the urban area of Bologna showed that the NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) can be a good variable for the creation of maps of the distribution of the tiger mosquito especially in the month of August.

Observed climate variability

severe rains and floods

severe rains and floods

heat waves and drought

heat waves and drought

heavy snowfalls

heavy snowfalls

Increase in extreme events

Increase in extreme events

strong anomalies

Extending seasonal (warmer autumns) Advance in seasonality (early spring)

Longer growing season (limited by water availability) Warm winters (2006-2007, 2013-2014)

Extending seasonal (warmer autumns) Advance in seasonality (early spring)

Longer growing season (limited by water availability) Warm winters (2006-2007, 2013-2014)

• Decrease of frost days during winter • Increase of heat waves

• Increase of the consecutive dry days

• Decrease of frost days during winter

• Increase of heat waves

• Increase of the consecutive dry days

Ondate di calore (HWD) estive e il valore climatico di riferimento(linea tratteggiata) a Bologna 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011

anni

gmax.giorni consecutivi

HWD clima_HWD

W inter tem po ral variability o f frost d ays- b ologna

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Ye a rs

No.of days

Observed climate variability in Bologna

Heat waves Heat waves Frost days Frost days 0 10 20 30 40 50 60

1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011

giorni

anni

Andamento temporale del numero massimo di giorni consecutivi senza precipitazione-stagione estiva, Bologna (periodo 1951 -2011)

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011

giorni

anni

Andamento temporale del numero massimo di giorni consecutivi senza precipitazione-stagione estiva, Bologna (periodo 1951 -2011)

Consecutive dry days

Season Trend (°C/decade) Tmin

Climate (’61-’90) Tmin

Trend (°C/decade) Tmax

Climate (’61-’90) Tmax

Winter (DGF) 0.4* _{1 0.4}* ₇

Primavera(MAM) 0.3* _{10 0.2}* ₁₈

Estate(GLA) 0.3* _{19 0.3}* ₂₉

Autunno(SON) 0.2* _{11 0.3}* ₁₉

the future climate: climate projections

the future climate: climate projections

Tools:

v

Global Climate Models (GCM);

v

Regional Climate models(RCM)

v

Statistical Models (DS)

Tools:

v

Global Climate Models (GCM);

v

Regional Climate models(RCM)

statistical relationship between local climate variables and large scale atmospheric

variables. Regional Climate Models (RCM) or

Dynamical Downscaling (DD): nested into the global model

AOGCM

RCM

Developed by ARPA-SIMC Developed by ARPA-SIMC

Global

Global

Continental

_Continental

Regional

Regional

Local

Local

National

National

Climate projection from global to local

Climate projection from global to local

Solution ?

CCAReg applied to the GCMs

CCAReg applied to the GCMs

Ensemble Mean (EM)

Ensemble Mean (EM)

a) GLOBALEMISSION SCENARIO

b) GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS

c) STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING MODELS

d) IMPACT MODELS

Uncertainty: how to manage it ?

Uncertainty: how to manage it ?

Tmin

Tmax

DJF

DJF

Tmin and Tmax in Northern Italy

2021-2050

Tmin

Tmax

Tmax

Note:

üwarming in all seasons with mean values up to 1.8°C

(summer)

üsignificant shits in the tails of the distributions

Note:

üwarming in all seasons with

mean values up to 1.8°C (summer)

üsignificant shits in the tails of the distributions

…other seasons

Tmin

Tmax

Note:

üPeak of warming during summer

Note:

üPeak of warming during

summer

PDFs of climate change

projections of multi-model

ensemble mean (EM)

projections of multi-model

ensemble mean (EM)

2 8

∆Tmin_DJF (°C)

∆Tmin_DJF (°C) ∆_∆Tmax_JJA(°C)_{Tmax_JJA(°C)}

2021-2050

2021-2050

2070-2099

2070-2099

∆Tmin_DJF(°C)

∆Tmin_DJF(°C) ∆_∆Tmax_JJA (°C)_{Tmax_JJA (°C)}

Spatial patterns of projected changes

EM 2021-2050 and 2070-2099, A1B

Spatial patterns of projected changes

EM 2021-2050 and 2070-2099, A1B

Projected changes of seasonal frost days (EM) and Ice days 2021-2050 and

2070-2099

Projected changes of seasonal frost days (EM) and Ice days 2021-2050 and

2070-2099

2070-2099

2070-2099

extremes” in

Emilia-Romagna?

Emilia-Romagna?

Conclusions

Conclusions

ü significant increases are projected to occur in minimum and maximum temperature over Northern Italy in all seasons, during the period 2021-2050. The Ensemble Mean computed using all runs (8 runs for each season) projects for each season, a change in the mean of the PDFs of minimum and maximum temperature around 1.5- 2°C over N-Italy;

ü the magnitude of changes is greater to the end of the century, namely for the period 2070-2099, when the mean of the distributions of EM showed an increase around 3°C (mean over all

the stations) during winter, spring and autumn;

ü the peak of changes is projected to occur during summer season, for both minimum and maximum temperature, with an increase in the mean around 4°C (mean over the stations from

ü

the warming is projected to be

more intense in the Po

Valley

, especially to the end of the century;

ü

the lower and upper tail of the PDFs of minimum and

maximum temperatures are projected to shift to warmer

values,

with increases up to 2°C in lower and up to

6°C

;

ü

a

significant decrease of the seasonal number of

frost days

and winter ice days is projected to occur over

Emilia-Romagna, more intense to the end of the century (

for example during spring could disappear).

Conclusions

Conclusions